APA Corporation (APA)
Fair ValueFundamental
77
Price
$51.90
Market Cap
$17.22B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
APA Corporation explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. It owns no refineries or pipelines beyond what it needs to move its own output: wells are drilled, hydrocarbons extracted, and sold as raw commodities at prevailing market prices. Operations concentrate in three areas — the Permian Basin and other U.S. onshore fields, Egypt's Western Desert, where APA has explored for decades, and the North Sea offshore the United Kingdom, from which the company plans to exit production before 2030.
How it makes money
Revenue comes from selling oil, natural gas and NGLs at spot or contracted prices tied to benchmark indices, so it moves with global commodity markets rather than with any pricing power of APA's own. In 2025 the U.S. supplied just over half of oil revenue and about a quarter of gas revenue; Egypt contributed over a third of oil revenue and the majority of gas revenue, produced under production-sharing terms with the Egyptian state; the smaller North Sea business is being wound down ahead of the planned exit.
Competitive moat
No identified moat · NoneOil, gas and NGLs are fungible commodities sold at whatever the market pays that day. APA cannot charge more than a competitor for the same barrel, and its main lever is finding and lifting hydrocarbons more cheaply than others in the same basins — a cost position, not a durable advantage that keeps customers or blocks new supply from entering the market.
What drives demand
CyclicalResults swing with global oil and gas prices, which the company does not control and which are driven by OPEC+ supply decisions, global growth, and geopolitical shocks far outside its operations. A period of low prices squeezes cash flow and capital spending at the same time, since both are set by the same commodity cycle.
Key risks
- Commodity price volatility — The company states that oil, natural gas and NGL prices are highly volatile and driven by factors beyond its control, and that a prolonged period of low prices could materially affect its financial condition and its ability to fund capital spending.
- Concentration in Egypt — A large share of production and reserves sits in Egypt's Western Desert, operated under agreements with the Egyptian state. Political instability, contract renegotiation or a change in the fiscal terms there would affect results well beyond what a single well or field could explain.
- North Sea wind-down costs — APA is planning to cease North Sea production before 2030 and recorded a $796 million impairment on North Sea properties in 2024. Decommissioning obligations and further write-downs on a shrinking asset base can still weigh on results during the exit.
The case for
Buyers argue that a low-cost position in the Permian and decades of experience in Egypt let APA keep producing profitably through the cycle, that the North Sea exit removes a shrinking, capital-hungry asset, and that free cash flow can fund debt reduction once commodity prices stabilize.
The case against
Sellers fear that a downturn in oil and gas prices would hit a company with no pricing power directly on the bottom line, that political or fiscal changes in Egypt could reduce the share of production APA actually keeps, and that decommissioning the North Sea business absorbs cash without adding new reserves.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on August 23, 2026, shared with all users
Occidental is the closest structural match to APA: a large US independent that pairs a major Permian Basin oil position with international production-sharing contracts in the Middle East, so the two bid against each other for Permian acreage and for host-government licences abroad.
Diamondback is the largest pure-play Permian producer and competes head-on with APA's US segment — roughly 55% of APA's output — for the same West Texas acreage, the same drilling rigs and pressure-pumping crews, and the same crude buyers and pipeline capacity.
Devon, enlarged by its May 2026 merger with Coterra, is a multi-basin US shale operator anchored in the Delaware Basin, the same sub-basin where APA's Permian production and acquisition pipeline sit.
Ovintiv is a North American multi-basin independent of comparable size with a Permian core, competing with APA for the same drilling inventory, oilfield services and capital in the mid-cap E&P bracket.
Permian Resources is a Delaware Basin pure-play that competes directly with APA's US business for undeveloped acreage, bolt-on acquisitions and midstream takeaway capacity in exactly the same fairway.
Murphy follows the same hybrid model as APA — cash-generating onshore North American shale funding high-risk offshore exploration abroad — so the two compete for the same frontier exploration blocks and for the investors who buy that profile.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$8.72B
Fiscal year ended 12/31/2025
Net Income
$1.43B
Fiscal year ended 12/31/2025
Free Cash Flow
-
Total Equity
$6.09B
Total Liabilities
$10.76B
Current Ratio
0.95
Interest Coverage
13.40
Debt/EBITDA
0.72
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
No income data available
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$66.39
Current Price
$51.90
Margin of Safety
+21.8%
Fair Value Range
$43.15 - $89.62
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
10.97
ROE
23.5%
P/B Ratio
2.59
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
19.4%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
19.4%
WACC
7.7%
ROIC − WACC
+11.6 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (15)
- EPS shows upward trend
- ROIC 19.4%
- P/B ratio 2.59
- Debt/equity ratio
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 26.3%
- Revenue growth 5Y 15.0%
- Earnings surprise, average 19.5%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.70
- Share dilution 1.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (3)
- Price CAGR -3.66%
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
Unavailable (8)
- Gross margin –
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- Operating margin –
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Net margin trend (invalid data)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. John J. Christmann IV | CEO & Director | 58 |
| Mr. Stephen J. Riney | President | 64 |
| Mr. Ben C. Rodgers | Executive VP & CFO | 45 |
| Ms. Kimberly O. Warnica J.D. | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 51 |
| Ms. Tracey K. Henderson | Executive Vice President of Exploration | 58 |
| Mr. Robert P. Rayphole | VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | 51 |
| Mr. Mandeep Walia | Vice President & Chief Information Officer | - |
| Mr. Mark D. Maddox | Executive Vice President of Administration | 58 |
| Mr. Stephane M. Aka | Managing Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Scott R. Grandt | Senior Vice President of U.S. Assets & Corporate Development | - |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
2
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-26
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-06
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-07
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much APA moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 59% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 39.6%
- Volatility 90d
- 40.0%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- -0.95Correlation -0.27
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -28.2%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.22%
Earnings reactions
How APA moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 4, 2026 · In 11 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 1.56Revenue estimate: $2.4B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 5.0% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 1.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | After the close | 1.89 | 1.89 | +0.2% | +5.5% | +5.4% | +15.3% |
| May 6, 2026 | After the close | 1.14 | 1.38 | +20.6% | -4.7% | -5.4% | -3.5% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | After the close | 0.65 | 0.91 | +40.4% | -0.7% | +4.5% | +11.7% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | After the close | 0.80 | 0.93 | +16.7% | +6.6% | +9.1% | +10.3% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.0% | +7.8% | +13.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.8% | +4.5% | +17.4% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.3% | -7.2% | -15.8% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.5% | -11.3% | -11.0% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.2% | -0.4% | -13.4% |
| May 2, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.2% | -4.3% | 0.0% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.8% | -3.9% | -4.7% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.5% | +0.2% | -7.3% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on APA and what the price did next.
- 3/30/2026NegativeTop 2 Energy That May Collapse This Month
- +1 day
- -1.1%
- +3 days
- -10.2%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for APA.
- 3/30/2026NEGATIVETop 2 Energy That May Collapse This Month
APA Corporation, an energy sector stock, is flashing warning signs for momentum investors. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that APA is highly overbought, suggesting a potential for a significant price correction. This technical indicator, which compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses, signals that the stock's price has risen too quickly and may be due for a pullback. Investors should be cautious of potential downside risk in the near term.
- 2/26/2026NEUTRALAPA (APA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Markets Gazette reports that APA Corporation (APA) held its Q4 2025 earnings call on February 26, 2026. While such events are standard for publicly traded companies, the detailed transcript content is currently unavailable. This prevents analysts from assessing the financial performance, future outlook, or any strategic announcements that could impact the stock's valuation. Investors are awaiting further information to form informed judgments on the company's trajectory within the energy sector and its portfolio implications. Without concrete data, the market remains in a holding pattern, awaiting clarity.
- 2/25/2026NEUTRALAPA Earnings Review: Q4 Summary
APA Corporation has announced its Q4 earnings review, yet specific financial details such as revenues, earnings per share, or future guidance have not been disclosed. This critical lack of information makes it challenging for investors to assess the company's current performance and its potential impact on share value. Without concrete data, the market remains in a holding pattern, with any stock movements likely driven by speculation rather than solid fundamentals. Analysts and investors will need to await the full report's publication to form informed judgments and make trading decisions.