ASML Holding N.V. (ASMLF)
NEUTRALFundamental
64
Price
$1508.00
Market Cap
$576.46B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
ASML builds the machines chipmakers use to print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers — the single most demanding step in making a semiconductor. It is the only company in the world that sells lithography systems capable of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) exposure, the technology needed for the most advanced chips. Customers are the handful of companies that manufacture leading-edge chips: TSMC, Samsung and Intel among them.
How it makes money
Revenue has two parts: selling new lithography systems, which can cost well over 100 million euros each and roughly 350 million for the newest High-NA EUV machines, and servicing the growing fleet of machines already installed at customer fabs — upgrades, spare parts and maintenance. System sales are lumpy and tied to customers' capital spending plans; the installed-base service business is smaller but grows every year a new machine ships and recurs regardless of whether that customer buys another one soon.
Revenue by segment
Systems sold to makers of processors and other logic chips — the larger and currently faster-growing of the two end markets.
Systems sold to makers of DRAM and NAND memory chips, a market that moves in its own investment cycle, distinct from logic.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · WideEUV lithography took ASML and its main optics partner over two decades and tens of billions of euros to develop, and no competitor has matched it: Canon and Nikon, the only other lithography makers of scale, have no EUV product. A customer that wants to make the most advanced chips has no alternative supplier to switch to.
What drives demand
CyclicalOrders track the capital spending cycles of a small number of chipmakers, which expand and pause capacity in step with memory prices and AI-driven demand for logic. A shortage can flip into overcapacity within a couple of years, and system revenue in a given year depends heavily on the timing of a handful of large customer decisions.
Key risks
- Export controls on China — The Dutch government requires an export license for ASML's most advanced immersion DUV and all EUV systems shipped to China, and has revoked licenses for specific systems already sold; the same license requirement extends to servicing and spare parts for machines already installed there.
- Single-source dependence on Zeiss optics — Carl Zeiss SMT is ASML's sole supplier of the optical columns at the heart of its lithography systems. If Zeiss could not maintain or expand production, ASML would be unable to fulfill orders.
- Revenue concentrated in a handful of customers — The company states that the loss of any significant customer, or a significant reduction in its orders, could have a material adverse effect on results, and that sales are expected to remain concentrated among relatively few customers.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 38% of revenue
TSMC alone has accounted for roughly a quarter of net sales, and the top two customers together for about 38%. The company states it expects sales to stay concentrated among a small number of customers, so the loss of one order cycle from any of them moves results materially.
The case for
Buyers argue that ASML's EUV monopoly is effectively unassailable for years, that AI-driven demand for leading-edge logic chips extends the growth runway well beyond the current cycle, and that the growing installed-base service business makes an increasing share of revenue recurring and less exposed to any single year's order swings.
The case against
Sellers fear that export controls could permanently close off the Chinese market, that revenue depends on capital-spending decisions made by two or three customers who can delay orders by a year with little warning, and that a downturn in memory or logic capacity spending would hit system sales hard even though the underlying technology moat is intact.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on August 23, 2026 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
KLA is the reference supplier of wafer inspection and metrology, competing head-on with ASML's YieldStar optical metrology and HMI e-beam inspection systems for the same process-control budget inside the fab.
Applied Materials sells its own e-beam metrology and inspection tools against ASML's HMI line, and competes with ASML for the same capital-equipment spending of the same handful of large chipmakers.
Nikon is the only other supplier of ArF immersion scanners for advanced logic and memory production, so it bids against ASML for the same critical-layer lithography tools in the same leading fabs.
Canon sells i-line and KrF steppers plus nanoimprint lithography to the mature-node and packaging customers that also buy ASML's older DUV machines.
SMEE is China's domestic lithography builder and targets exactly the mature-node scanners that Chinese fabs would otherwise buy from ASML, in a market that is a large share of ASML's sales.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$35.33B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$10.64B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$8.44B
Total Equity
$21.83B
Total Liabilities
$1.98B
Current Ratio
1.33
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.15
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$1266.92
Current Price
$1508.00
Margin of Safety
-19.0%
Fair Value Range
$823.50 - $1710.35
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
58.97
ROE
53.9%
P/B Ratio
26.41
P/FCF
68.32
Gross Margin
52.7%
ROIC
43.4%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
43.4%
WACC
16.7%
ROIC − WACC
+26.7 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (13)
- Price CAGR 29.63%
- ROIC 43.4%
- Gross Margin 52.7%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- ROE 41.5%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 18.5%
- Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 2.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.22
- Net Margin Trend 28.8% vs 26.8%
Failed (6)
- P/FCF 68.32
- P/B Ratio 26.41
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- PEG Ratio 2.36
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Unavailable (8)
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Christophe D. Fouquet | President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management | 52 |
| Mr. Roger J. M. Dassen Ph.D. | Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board | 60 |
| Mr. Frederic J. M. Schneider-Maunoury | Executive VP, COO & Member of the Management Board | 64 |
| Mr. James P. Koonmen | Executive VP, Chief Customer Officer & Member of Management Board | 58 |
| Mr. Wayne R. Allan | Executive VP, Chief Strategic Sourcing & Procurement Officer and Member of Management Board | 58 |
| Mr. Marco J. A. Pieters | Executive VP, CTO & Member of Management Board | - |
| Jim Kavanagh | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Cristina Monteiro | Executive Vice President Human Resources & Organization | - |
| Mr. Ron Kool | Head of Business Performance Improvement | - |
| Herman Boom | Head of Strategic Sourcing & Procurement | - |
Audit Risk
2
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
1
Shareholder Rights Risk
6
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ASMLF, sourced from Markets Gazette.