Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)
NEUTRALFundamental
43
Price
$613.39
Market Cap
$48.55B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Axon started as the maker of the TASER stun gun and now sells a wider ecosystem of public-safety equipment: body cameras, in-car cameras, counter-drone systems, and Evidence.com, a cloud service that stores and manages all the video and data those devices capture. Its customers are almost entirely police departments, federal agencies and other public-safety organizations rather than individual consumers, and its equipment is designed to work together as one connected system.
How it makes money
Hardware like TASER devices and cameras is sold or leased to agencies, while Evidence.com is billed as a multi-year cloud subscription that stores, indexes and shares the video those devices generate for use as courtroom evidence. Agencies increasingly buy hardware and software together in bundled, multi-year contracts negotiated once and renewed automatically, which locks in a recurring revenue stream that now makes up close to half of total sales and grows every year the contract stays in place.
Revenue by segment
TASER devices, body and in-car cameras, drones and other hardware sold or leased to public-safety agencies.
Evidence.com and related cloud subscriptions that store, manage and share video and data captured by Axon's hardware.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · WideOnce a police department stores years of body-camera footage and case evidence in Evidence.com, moving that archive to a rival system means migrating data that may be needed as legal evidence for years, a risk most agencies will not take on lightly. Axon's dominant position in TASER devices and cameras, built over two decades of agency relationships, reinforces the same lock-in on the hardware side.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalCustomers are government agencies buying with taxpayer-funded budgets and multi-year procurement cycles, so demand does not track consumer spending directly, but it is still constrained by municipal and state budget conditions and can slow when local governments face fiscal pressure. Multi-year bundled contracts also smooth revenue by locking in future subscription payments regardless of near-term budget swings.
Key risks
- Dependence on public-sector budgets — Nearly all revenue comes from government agencies whose purchasing depends on approved budgets and grants; funding cuts or delayed appropriations can push out or shrink orders.
- Product liability from weapons and force — TASER devices are designed to be used as a use-of-force tool, and injuries or deaths associated with their use can result in litigation and reputational damage regardless of fault.
- Political scrutiny of policing technology — Public debate over policing practices and AI-enabled surveillance features can lead to restrictions, contract cancellations or reputational pressure that affects Axon's ability to sell or deploy new products.
- Competition from established security vendors — Motorola Solutions and other public-safety technology vendors compete for the same agency contracts and can bundle radios, cameras and software in ways that pressure Axon's share.
The case for
Buyers argue that once an agency's evidence archive lives in Evidence.com, the legal and operational risk of migrating it keeps customers locked in for years, that bundling hardware and cloud software into multi-year contracts gives Axon unusually visible recurring revenue for a hardware company, and that its dominant share of the TASER and body-camera market is difficult for a new entrant to challenge.
The case against
Sellers fear that dependence on government budgets exposes revenue to fiscal pressure at the municipal and state level, that product-liability litigation tied to use-of-force incidents carries open-ended legal risk, and that political controversy over AI-enabled surveillance features could restrict Axon's ability to sell some of its newer, higher-margin products.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on August 23, 2026 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
Motorola Solutions bids against Axon for the same police-department contracts with a rival bundle of body-worn and in-car cameras (WatchGuard), digital evidence management, dispatch and records software, and drone programs.
Flock Safety sells US law-enforcement agencies the same license-plate-reading cameras, real-time crime centre software (FlockOS) and response drones that Axon offers with Lightpost, Fusus and Axon Air.
The Canadian private company competes for the same public-safety budgets with AutoVu license-plate recognition and the Citigraf real-time crime centre platform, set against Axon Lightpost and Axon Fusus.
Digital Ally supplies body-worn and in-car video with cloud evidence management to the same US police departments and commercial fleets, and is routinely the cost-conscious alternative in bids Axon also enters.
Byrna's pepper-projectile launchers are named in Axon's own 10-K as a less-lethal alternative to the TASER, both for police forces and for the personal-safety consumer that Axon now targets with TASER for civilians.
Wrap sells the BolaWrap remote restraint device to the same police agencies deciding how to spend a less-lethal budget, positioning it as the tool an officer reaches for instead of a TASER.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$3.22B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$199M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$75M
Total Equity
$3.24B
Total Liabilities
$3.76B
Current Ratio
2.15
Interest Coverage
0.21
Debt/EBITDA
86.96
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$464.28
Current Price
$613.39
Margin of Safety
-32.1%
Fair Value Range
$301.78 - $626.77
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
249.00
ROE
3.8%
P/B Ratio
13.21
P/FCF
364.49
Gross Margin
59.4%
ROIC
0.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
0.3%
WACC
12.1%
ROIC − WACC
-11.8 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (11)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 38.47%
- Gross Margin 59.4%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Revenue Growth 5Y 32.5%
- Analyst Consensus 89% Buy
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.33
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (14)
- ROIC 0.3%
- P/FCF 364.49
- P/B Ratio 13.21
- Operating Margin 0.7%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE 5.9%
- Earnings Surprise avg 1.3%
- Share Dilution 5.1%
- Net Margin Trend 6.2% vs 13.6%
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Patrick W. Smith | Founder, CEO & Director | 54 |
| Mr. Joshua M. Isner | President | 39 |
| Ms. Brittany Bagley | COO & CFO | 42 |
| Mr. Jeffrey C. Kunins | Chief Product Officer & CTO | 50 |
| Mr. Cameron Brooks | Chief Revenue Officer | 55 |
| Ms. Jennifer H. Mak | Chief Accounting Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Erik Taylor Lapinski | Senior Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Isaiah Fields | Corporate Secretary & Chief Legal Officer | 48 |
| Ms. Abigail Stock B.A. | Executive Vice President of Marketing & Communications | - |
| Ms. Elizabeth Coughlin | Chief Human Officer | 39 |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
5
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for AXON, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 4/9/2026POSITIVE$100 Invested In Axon Enterprise 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
An investment of $100 in Axon Enterprise Inc. five years prior to April 9, 2026, would have grown to a substantial value, indicating significant stock performance over the period. While the exact figure is not provided, the framing suggests a strong positive return, likely outperforming broader market indices. This performance underscores Axon's growth trajectory and its increasing market valuation, making it a noteworthy stock for investors focused on technology and public safety sectors.
- 3/26/2026POSITIVEHere's How Much $1000 Invested In Axon Enterprise 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
An investment of $1000 in Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) five years ago would have grown to approximately $7,860 today, representing a staggering 686% return. This performance significantly outpaces the broader market, highlighting the company's robust growth trajectory and strong investor returns. Axon, a leader in law enforcement technology, has consistently delivered innovation and expanded its product suite, driving substantial shareholder value. For investors, this historical performance underscores AXON's potential as a long-term growth stock.
- 2/27/2026POSITIVEHere's How Much $100 Invested In Axon Enterprise 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
A retrospective analysis indicates that a $100 investment in Axon Enterprise five years ago would have yielded significant capital appreciation. This hypothetical data underscores the company's robust growth and market performance within the public safety and related technology sector. Axon, renowned for its body cameras, tasers, and cloud-based software solutions, has successfully capitalized on the increasing demand for law enforcement tools, demonstrating a strong expansion trajectory. The company's ability to innovate and broaden its product and service offerings has clearly rewarded long-term investors, positioning the stock as a success story in the technology landscape.
- 2/26/2026NEGATIVEAxon Stock Is On Fire, But Here's the Bad News
Axon Enterprise Inc. is experiencing accelerated growth, a factor that might initially excite investors. However, a closer look reveals a concerning discrepancy: the company's profitability is failing to keep pace with its revenue expansion. This gap serves as a red flag for the market, as growth not accompanied by sustainable profits can erode shareholder value in the long term. Investors might interpret this news as a sign of operational inefficiencies or aggressive investments that are not yet yielding adequate returns. The challenge for Axon will be to demonstrate a clear trajectory towards improved profitability to justify its current and future valuation.
- 2/26/2026POSITIVEAxon Enterprise Stuns the Market With Huge Q4 Earnings Beat
Axon Enterprise (AXON) has delivered a stunning fourth-quarter earnings beat, providing a much-needed boost to investor confidence after a challenging start to 2026. The stock had previously plummeted 22% year-to-date and traded roughly 50% below its 52-week high, largely due to widespread fears of an "AI disruption" and a "SaaS-pocalypse" impacting software vendors. This exceptional performance suggests the company is effectively navigating industry headwinds, potentially alleviating concerns about margin compression and pricing power. The strong results could trigger a significant rebound for the stock, offering a positive signal for the broader tech sector, which has faced skepticism regarding sustainable growth in the generative AI era. Investors should closely watch market reaction to determine if this earnings beat marks a turning point for Axon.
- 2/25/2026POSITIVEWhy Axon Enterprise Stock Was Soaring Today
Axon Enterprise Inc. experienced a significant surge in its stock value today after announcing fourth-quarter earnings that substantially exceeded analyst expectations. This exceptional performance underscores robust growth and effective management, reassuring investors about the company's future trajectory. The 'blow out' of estimates suggests strong demand for Axon's products and services, which include body cameras and tasers, reinforcing its leadership position in the public safety technology sector. Investors should monitor whether this momentum translates into sustained growth in upcoming quarters, but the current market reaction is a clear signal of confidence.
- 2/24/2026NEUTRALAxon (AXON) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Axon (AXON) investors are awaiting crucial details from the Q4 2025 earnings call transcript, which took place on February 24, 2026. While the specific content is not yet available, this event represents a key moment to assess the company's financial performance and future outlook. Earnings calls are fundamental for understanding growth strategies, profit margins, and management forecasts, directly influencing investment decisions. The market will closely monitor any indications regarding revenues, earnings per share, and guidance for upcoming periods, which could determine the stock's direction in the short to medium term.
via Markets Gazette