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Evolution Mining Limited (CAHPF)

NEUTRAL
Basic MaterialsGoldAustralia

Fundamental

68

Price

$15.88

Market Cap

$32.12B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Evolution Mining is an Australian miner that digs up and processes rock to extract gold, with copper as a significant byproduct at some of its mines. It operates a portfolio of underground and open-pit mines, including Cowal, Ernest Henry, Red Lake, Mungari and Northparkes, spanning Australia and Canada. It does not sell to a single end customer; it produces gold bullion and copper concentrate that are sold into global commodity markets at prevailing prices.

How it makes money

Revenue is simply ounces of gold and tonnes of copper produced, multiplied by the market price on the day they are sold; Evolution has little influence over that price. Gold is the primary product across the portfolio, with copper — produced mainly at Ernest Henry and Cowal — a smaller but meaningful secondary contributor. Because mining and processing costs are largely fixed once a mine is running, profit is highly sensitive to swings in the gold and copper price.

Competitive moat

No identified moat · None

Gold and copper are undifferentiated commodities sold at a price set by global markets, not by Evolution. A mining company can have better or worse ore bodies and lower or higher costs than its peers, but it cannot charge more for its gold than anyone else does, so there is no durable competitive advantage in the way a brand or a patent provides one.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Evolution's results move with global gold and copper prices, which themselves swing with macroeconomic cycles: gold tends to rise when investors seek a safe haven during uncertainty or falling real interest rates, while copper tracks industrial and construction activity worldwide. A period of high metal prices can lift profit sharply, and a downturn in prices compresses it just as fast, independent of how well the mines themselves are run.

The case for

Buyers argue that record gold and copper output, combined with strong metal prices, has already delivered record profit and a higher dividend, and that a long-life, multi-mine portfolio spread across two countries reduces the risk of any single operation disappointing.

The case against

Sellers worry that today's record results depend on metal prices Evolution does not control and that could fall back, that mining carries operational risks such as lower ore grades or unexpected costs at any given site, and that a portfolio built around a handful of mines leaves less room to absorb a problem at one of them.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$5.16B

Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics

Net Income

$1.35B

Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics

Free Cash Flow

$1.16B

Total Equity

$5.86B

Total Liabilities

$1.44B

Current Ratio

1.82

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

0.46

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Overvalued

Fair Value

$12.13

Current Price

$15.88

Margin of Safety

-30.9%

Fair Value Range

$7.89 - $16.38

Estimation Methods

Analyst Target:$13.06
DCF:$10.27
PE-based:$8.38
Graham Growth:$32.92
EPV:$4.45
Analyst Consensus:Buy (11B / 8H / 2S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+15.61%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

23.83

ROE

27.4%

P/B Ratio

5.67

P/FCF

27.58

Gross Margin

42.6%

ROIC

25.5%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

25.5%

WACC

15.7%

ROIC − WACC

+9.8 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (16)

  • Price CAGR 22.14%
  • ROIC 25.5%
  • Gross Margin 42.6%
  • P/FCF 27.58
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 36.7%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 25.1%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 17.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 52% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 19.6%
  • PEG Ratio 1.10
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.79
  • Net Margin Trend 26.5% vs 21.3%

Failed (5)

  • P/B Ratio 5.67
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Unavailable (6)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Serious financial concerns

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.79

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Lawrence John Conway BBus, C.P.A., MAICDCEO, MD & Director-

Audit Risk

2

Board Risk

6

Compensation Risk

9

Shareholder Rights Risk

7

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for CAHPF, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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