The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)
NEUTRALFundamental
61
Price
$113.48
Market Cap
$5.57B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
The Cheesecake Factory owns and operates full-service, sit-down restaurants under several brands, plus a bakery that supplies desserts to its own restaurants and to outside licensees and retailers. Its flagship chain, known for an unusually large menu and dozens of cheesecake varieties, remains the core of the business, while brands acquired from Fox Restaurant Concepts in 2019 — North Italia, Flower Child and about a dozen smaller concepts — give it several growth engines beyond the original one.
How it makes money
Almost all revenue comes from food and beverages sold at company-operated restaurants, recognised when the meal is served, plus a smaller stream from wholesale bakery sales and royalties on the roughly 30 restaurants run abroad by international licensees. Because restaurants are large, full-service and staff-intensive, profitability depends heavily on managing labour and food-ingredient costs, which move independently of the menu prices the company can charge.
Revenue by segment
The flagship chain, with the highest average unit volume of any major U.S. restaurant brand thanks to a very large menu and dessert selection.
Flower Child fast-casual restaurants, Grand Lux Cafe and Social Monk, the wholesale bakery division, and royalties from international licensees.
Other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands such as Culinary Dropout, The Henry and Zinburger, acquired in 2019 to diversify beyond the core Cheesecake Factory brand.
An upscale Italian-inspired restaurant chain acquired with Fox Restaurant Concepts, one of the company's fastest-growing brands by new openings.
Competitive moat
Brand · NarrowThe Cheesecake Factory brand generates the highest average unit volume of any major U.S. restaurant chain — roughly $12.5 million per restaurant, well above casual-dining peers such as Maggiano's or Yard House — because its size and menu breadth draw consistent traffic. That advantage is tied to one mature brand, though, and does not automatically extend to the newer concepts the company has been adding.
What drives demand
CyclicalFull-service, sit-down dining is discretionary spending that households cut back on first when budgets tighten, so traffic and average check both feel the effect of a weaker economy. Growth increasingly comes from opening new restaurants across the brand portfolio rather than from more visits to existing ones, which ties results to real-estate availability and construction costs as much as to consumer demand.
Key risks
- Labor cost inflation — Labor expenses, including restaurant-level staff and bakery production, were 35.0% of revenue in fiscal 2025. Minimum wage increases, labor organizing and changes in employment law can push this cost higher.
- Commodity and supply chain cost volatility — Where commodities are not locked in by contract, their prices can swing significantly, and the company's reliance on fresh, perishable ingredients with rapid turnover makes it especially exposed to supply disruptions.
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical pressure on costs and demand — The company states that ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic events, including trade and tariff dynamics, could drive further wage and cost inflation, disrupt its supply chain, and shift consumer spending away from dining out.
The case for
Buyers argue that The Cheesecake Factory's industry-leading average unit volumes and brand recognition support pricing power that smaller casual-dining chains lack, that faster-growing brands such as North Italia and Flower Child diversify the concept portfolio, and that steady new restaurant openings extend growth beyond the mature core brand.
The case against
Sellers worry that labor and commodity cost inflation can compress restaurant-level margins faster than menu prices can be raised, that the flagship brand's unit growth has slowed as the concept matures, and that discretionary restaurant spending is among the first things households cut back in a downturn.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$3.88B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$179M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$155M
Total Equity
$436M
Total Liabilities
$2.83B
Current Ratio
0.59
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
7.02
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$76.07
Current Price
$113.48
Margin of Safety
-49.2%
Fair Value Range
$59.89 - $92.25
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
31.14
ROE
34.0%
P/B Ratio
10.99
P/FCF
27.64
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
6.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
6.3%
WACC
7.5%
ROIC − WACC
-1.3 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 8.05%
- Price CAGR 6.59%
- ROIC 6.2%
- P/FCF 27.64
- Operating Margin 5.3%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 38.8%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 13.6%
- Earnings Surprise avg 7.8%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.98
- Share Dilution -1.0%
- Net Margin Trend 4.6% vs 4.3%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (8)
- P/B Ratio 10.99
- Debt/Equity ratio
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Analyst Consensus 33% Buy
Unavailable (4)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. David M. Overton | Founder, Chairman & CEO | 79 |
| Mr. David M. Gordon | President | 60 |
| Mr. Matthew Eliot Clark | Executive VP & CFO | 55 |
| Ms. Scarlett A. May J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 59 |
| Ms. Ashley W. Hanscom | VP, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller | 47 |
| Mr. Etienne Marcus | Vice President of Finance & Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Cheryl M. Slomann | Senior Vice President of Finance & Compliance | 59 |
| Mr. Donald Evans | Chief Marketing Officer & Senior VP | - |
| Ms. Dina R. Barmasse-Gray | Senior Vice President of Human Resources | - |
| Mr. Spero G. Alex | Executive Vice President of Operations - The Cheesecake Factory Restaurants | 61 |
Audit Risk
6
Board Risk
5
Compensation Risk
3
Shareholder Rights Risk
6
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for CAKE, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 7/20/2026POSITIVEPancakeSwap Releases ERC-8183 AI Settlement Agent As DeFi Automation Gets More Serious
Decentralized exchange aggregator PancakeSwap has launched its ERC-8183 AI Settlement Agent, a significant step towards automating Decentralized Finance (DeFi) operations. This new agent aims to streamline transaction settlements and enhance efficiency within the DeFi ecosystem. The development is expected to attract more institutional and retail users seeking advanced automation tools, potentially increasing trading volume and utility for the CAKE token. Investors may see this as a positive catalyst for PancakeSwap's growth and adoption in the competitive DeFi landscape.
- 5/14/2026POSITIVEAnalysts say this restaurant chain has figured out how to feed everyone — GLP-1 users included
J.P. Morgan has upgraded The Cheesecake Factory's stock, citing the company's perceived ability to navigate the evolving consumer landscape, including the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. While the broader restaurant industry faces anxieties from these drugs and cautious consumer spending, analysts believe Cheesecake Factory has found a strategic advantage. This upgrade suggests that the company's business model and customer base may be more resilient or adaptable than competitors, potentially leading to improved financial performance and investor sentiment.
- 3/5/2026NEGATIVEA Cheesecake Factory VP Sold Shares Worth $316,000. Is the Stock a Buy or Sell?
A Vice President at The Cheesecake Factory Inc. sold shares worth $316,000. While insider sales can be driven by various personal factors, a sale of this magnitude can sometimes be interpreted by the market as a signal of caution regarding the stock's future prospects. The company, a full-service dining leader known for its signature desserts and multi-brand reach, recently filed documents highlighting this transaction. For investors, it's crucial to analyze the full context, including recent financial results and industry outlook, before drawing definitive conclusions about the sale's impact on the stock price.
via Markets Gazette