The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)
OvervaluedFundamental
62
Price
$108.37
Market Cap
$5.72B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
The Cheesecake Factory owns and operates full-service, sit-down restaurants under several brands, plus a bakery that supplies desserts to its own restaurants and to outside licensees and retailers. Its flagship chain, known for an unusually large menu and dozens of cheesecake varieties, remains the core of the business, while brands acquired from Fox Restaurant Concepts in 2019 — North Italia, Flower Child and about a dozen smaller concepts — give it several growth engines beyond the original one.
How it makes money
Almost all revenue comes from food and beverages sold at company-operated restaurants, recognised when the meal is served, plus a smaller stream from wholesale bakery sales and royalties on the roughly 30 restaurants run abroad by international licensees. Because restaurants are large, full-service and staff-intensive, profitability depends heavily on managing labour and food-ingredient costs, which move independently of the menu prices the company can charge.
Revenue by segment
The flagship chain, with the highest average unit volume of any major U.S. restaurant brand thanks to a very large menu and dessert selection.
Flower Child fast-casual restaurants, Grand Lux Cafe and Social Monk, the wholesale bakery division, and royalties from international licensees.
Other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands such as Culinary Dropout, The Henry and Zinburger, acquired in 2019 to diversify beyond the core Cheesecake Factory brand.
An upscale Italian-inspired restaurant chain acquired with Fox Restaurant Concepts, one of the company's fastest-growing brands by new openings.
Competitive moat
Brand · NarrowThe Cheesecake Factory brand generates the highest average unit volume of any major U.S. restaurant chain — roughly $12.5 million per restaurant, well above casual-dining peers such as Maggiano's or Yard House — because its size and menu breadth draw consistent traffic. That advantage is tied to one mature brand, though, and does not automatically extend to the newer concepts the company has been adding.
What drives demand
CyclicalFull-service, sit-down dining is discretionary spending that households cut back on first when budgets tighten, so traffic and average check both feel the effect of a weaker economy. Growth increasingly comes from opening new restaurants across the brand portfolio rather than from more visits to existing ones, which ties results to real-estate availability and construction costs as much as to consumer demand.
Key risks
- Labor cost inflation — Labor expenses, including restaurant-level staff and bakery production, were 35.0% of revenue in fiscal 2025. Minimum wage increases, labor organizing and changes in employment law can push this cost higher.
- Commodity and supply chain cost volatility — Where commodities are not locked in by contract, their prices can swing significantly, and the company's reliance on fresh, perishable ingredients with rapid turnover makes it especially exposed to supply disruptions.
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical pressure on costs and demand — The company states that ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic events, including trade and tariff dynamics, could drive further wage and cost inflation, disrupt its supply chain, and shift consumer spending away from dining out.
The case for
Buyers argue that The Cheesecake Factory's industry-leading average unit volumes and brand recognition support pricing power that smaller casual-dining chains lack, that faster-growing brands such as North Italia and Flower Child diversify the concept portfolio, and that steady new restaurant openings extend growth beyond the mature core brand.
The case against
Sellers worry that labor and commodity cost inflation can compress restaurant-level margins faster than menu prices can be raised, that the flagship brand's unit growth has slowed as the concept matures, and that discretionary restaurant spending is among the first things households cut back in a downturn.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Through Yard House, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen and Olive Garden, Darden competes for the same full-service dinner occasion in the same US shopping-centre locations.
The largest US casual-dining chain by sales, it draws the same family and group dinner traffic in the same trade areas, and often with the same waiting-list dynamic on weekends.
BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse targets the same large-format, elevated casual-dining guest in US suburban malls and high-traffic retail centers, with a broad menu and a signature dessert as its calling card.
Its polished-casual and casual chains — Bonefish Grill, Carrabba's Italian Grill and Outback Steakhouse — chase the same mid-priced sit-down occasion with a similar check per guest.
Chili's and Maggiano's Little Italy compete for the same discretionary casual-dining visit, with Maggiano's in particular overlapping on large-portion Italian-American menus and group dining.
It competes for the same daytime full-service occasion — breakfast, brunch and lunch — that accounts for a large share of Cheesecake Factory's weekend traffic.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$3.88B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$179M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$155M
Total Equity
$436M
Total Liabilities
$2.83B
Current Ratio
0.59
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
7.02
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$76.84
Current Price
$108.37
Margin of Safety
-41.0%
Fair Value Range
$57.05 - $96.62
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
29.45
ROE
34.0%
P/B Ratio
10.39
P/FCF
26.14
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
6.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
6.3%
WACC
7.9%
ROIC − WACC
-1.7 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 8.05%
- Price CAGR 5.72%
- ROIC 6.2%
- P/FCF 26.14
- Operating margin 5.3%
- Positive free cash flow
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 38.8%
- Revenue growth 5Y 13.6%
- Earnings surprise, average 7.8%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.98
- Share dilution -1.0%
- Net margin trend 4.6% vs 4.3%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (7)
- P/B ratio 10.39
- Debt/equity ratio
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
Unavailable (4)
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Interest coverage
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
No institutional filings reported for this company.
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. David M. Overton | Founder, Chairman & CEO | 79 |
| Mr. David M. Gordon | President | 60 |
| Mr. Matthew Eliot Clark | Executive VP & CFO | 55 |
| Ms. Scarlett A. May J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 59 |
| Ms. Ashley W. Hanscom | VP, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller | 47 |
| Mr. Etienne Marcus | Vice President of Finance & Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Cheryl M. Slomann | Senior Vice President of Finance & Compliance | 59 |
| Mr. Donald Evans | Chief Marketing Officer & Senior VP | - |
| Ms. Dina R. Barmasse-Gray | Senior Vice President of Human Resources | - |
| Mr. Spero G. Alex | Executive Vice President of Operations - The Cheesecake Factory Restaurants | 61 |
Audit Risk
6
Board Risk
5
Compensation Risk
3
Shareholder Rights Risk
6
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-23
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-03
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-07-28
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much CAKE moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 63% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 37.9%
- Volatility 90d
- 41.7%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.47Correlation 0.15
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -23.2%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.42%
Earnings reactions
How CAKE moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 27, 2026 · In 3 days · After the close
EPS estimate: 0.95Revenue estimate: $1.0B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 4.8% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 7, down 5 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | After the close | 1.20 | 1.44 | +20.2% | +4.4% | +13.6% | +18.9% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | After the close | 1.03 | 1.05 | +1.5% | +3.8% | +0.3% | -3.3% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | After the close | 1.01 | 1.00 | -1.0% | -0.7% | -2.6% | +2.9% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | After the close | 0.62 | 0.68 | +10.5% | +0.3% | -7.3% | -12.1% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.5% | +5.2% | -2.5% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.0% | -4.4% | -0.5% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.9% | +1.3% | -1.2% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +8.5% | +8.8% | +9.0% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.4% | -5.2% | -11.1% |
| May 8, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.4% | +6.2% | +20.7% |
| Feb 21, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.6% | +3.2% | +2.9% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.7% | -2.0% | -1.6% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on CAKE and what the price did next.
- 10/22/2026PositivePancakeSwap Opens Vote To Cut CAKE Emissions By Around 69%
- +1 day
- -0.5%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/21/2026PositivePancakeSwap TVL tops $380M as major fee overhaul heads to vote
- +1 day
- -2.3%
- +3 days
- pending
- 7/20/2026PositivePancakeSwap Releases ERC-8183 AI Settlement Agent As DeFi Automation Gets More Serious
- +1 day
- +0.3%
- +3 days
- -1.4%
- 5/14/2026PositiveAnalysts say this restaurant chain has figured out how to feed everyone — GLP-1 users included
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 3/5/2026NegativeA Cheesecake Factory VP Sold Shares Worth $316,000. Is the Stock a Buy or Sell?
- +1 day
- -0.7%
- +3 days
- -0.1%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for CAKE.
- 2d agoPOSITIVEPancakeSwap Opens Vote To Cut CAKE Emissions By Around 69%
PancakeSwap, a decentralized exchange, is proposing a significant reduction in its native token, CAKE, emissions by approximately 69%, aiming to lower daily issuance to 7,000 tokens. This proposal, known as 'The Flip,' also seeks to increase liquidity providers' share of specific trading fees to 88%. The move is designed to enhance the token's scarcity and potentially increase its value by reducing inflation. For holders and investors, this could signal a more sustainable economic model for the protocol, potentially leading to price appreciation if demand for CAKE remains strong or grows.
- 3d agoPOSITIVEPancakeSwap TVL tops $380M as major fee overhaul heads to vote
PancakeSwap, a decentralized exchange on BNB Chain, is proposing a significant fee-sharing overhaul. The plan allocates 88% of swap fees to liquidity providers and reduces CAKE token emissions by 69%. This initiative aims to boost attractiveness for liquidity providers amidst expanding DeFi activity on the BNB Chain. The proposal is currently heading to a community vote. If approved, this could lead to increased participation and potentially a more robust ecosystem for PancakeSwap and its native token, CAKE.
- 7/20/2026POSITIVEPancakeSwap Releases ERC-8183 AI Settlement Agent As DeFi Automation Gets More Serious
Decentralized exchange aggregator PancakeSwap has launched its ERC-8183 AI Settlement Agent, a significant step towards automating Decentralized Finance (DeFi) operations. This new agent aims to streamline transaction settlements and enhance efficiency within the DeFi ecosystem. The development is expected to attract more institutional and retail users seeking advanced automation tools, potentially increasing trading volume and utility for the CAKE token. Investors may see this as a positive catalyst for PancakeSwap's growth and adoption in the competitive DeFi landscape.
- 5/14/2026POSITIVEAnalysts say this restaurant chain has figured out how to feed everyone — GLP-1 users included
J.P. Morgan has upgraded The Cheesecake Factory's stock, citing the company's perceived ability to navigate the evolving consumer landscape, including the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. While the broader restaurant industry faces anxieties from these drugs and cautious consumer spending, analysts believe Cheesecake Factory has found a strategic advantage. This upgrade suggests that the company's business model and customer base may be more resilient or adaptable than competitors, potentially leading to improved financial performance and investor sentiment.
- 3/5/2026NEGATIVEA Cheesecake Factory VP Sold Shares Worth $316,000. Is the Stock a Buy or Sell?
A Vice President at The Cheesecake Factory Inc. sold shares worth $316,000. While insider sales can be driven by various personal factors, a sale of this magnitude can sometimes be interpreted by the market as a signal of caution regarding the stock's future prospects. The company, a full-service dining leader known for its signature desserts and multi-brand reach, recently filed documents highlighting this transaction. For investors, it's crucial to analyze the full context, including recent financial results and industry outlook, before drawing definitive conclusions about the sale's impact on the stock price.