Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Fair ValueFundamental
65
Price
$106.50
Market Cap
$423.39B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Cisco builds the networking equipment — routers, switches, wireless gear — that moves data through corporate and telecom networks, and has layered security, collaboration and observability software on top of that base. It sells mostly through a two-tier channel of distributors and resellers rather than directly, and its 2024 acquisition of Splunk turned network and application monitoring into one of its largest growth engines.
How it makes money
Roughly three-quarters of revenue still comes from selling physical and virtual equipment outright, but Cisco increasingly bundles that hardware with multi-year software subscriptions for security, observability and collaboration, turning a one-time sale into a renewing stream. The remaining quarter is services — support, maintenance and professional services on the enormous installed base of equipment already deployed, which is far more predictable than new equipment sales.
Revenue by segment
Routers, switches, wireless and data-centre networking hardware and software — the core business, though it shrank in fiscal 2025.
Support, maintenance and professional services sold on top of Cisco's large installed base of deployed equipment.
Cybersecurity software and appliances, Cisco's fastest-growing category after the Splunk acquisition closed.
Webex video conferencing, calling and contact-centre software for hybrid and remote work.
Splunk's monitoring and analytics tools plus ThousandEyes, the smallest category but growing quickly.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowRipping out core network infrastructure is disruptive and risky, and a generation of network engineers has been trained and certified specifically on Cisco's systems, which discourages wholesale replacement. The advantage has narrowed over the years, though, as cheaper switching hardware and cloud-native networking approaches have given large customers credible alternatives at the edges of the network.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalEnterprise and telecom capital spending on networking equipment rises and falls with IT budgets and can be deferred when a downturn hits, which is why Cisco's core Networking revenue actually declined in fiscal 2025. The growing subscription and services base cushions that swing, since renewal revenue keeps flowing even when new equipment orders slow.
Key risks
- Reliance on a two-tier distribution channel — Most Cisco products reach customers through distributors and resellers rather than direct sales, so channel inventory levels and partner incentives can distort visibility into real end demand.
- Need to keep pace with rapid technology shifts — Cloud-native networking, software-defined architectures and AI infrastructure are reshaping how enterprises build networks, and Cisco must keep innovating in these directions or lose ground to faster-moving competitors.
- Cybersecurity exposure — As both a security vendor and a large technology target, a breach of Cisco's own products or systems would damage customer trust in a business built partly on being a trusted security supplier.
- Integrating large acquisitions — The $28 billion Splunk deal is central to Cisco's observability strategy; realising the expected synergies and cross-selling depends on integration executing well, which large acquisitions do not always do.
The case for
Buyers argue that Splunk has given Cisco a genuine second growth engine in security and observability just as AI data-centre buildouts are reviving networking demand, and that the shift toward subscription revenue makes results more predictable than the old hardware-refresh cycle ever was.
The case against
Sellers worry that Cisco's core Networking business, still half of revenue, is losing share to cheaper switching hardware and cloud-native alternatives, and that folding Splunk into a much larger, slower-growing company will dilute the acquisition's promise rather than accelerate it.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Named by Cisco in its 10-K, Arista sells Ethernet switches to the same cloud, AI data center and enterprise campus buyers Cisco's Nexus and Catalyst lines target.
After absorbing Juniper Networks in July 2025 alongside its Aruba business, HPE is the other vendor offering a full campus, data center and service-provider networking portfolio to the same enterprise accounts.
Cisco lists Nvidia as a competitor because its Spectrum-X Ethernet and InfiniBand fabrics take the same AI data center networking budget Cisco is chasing with its AI infrastructure switches.
Palo Alto competes for the same corporate security spending as Cisco's firewall, zero-trust and secure-access products.
Huawei competes head-on for carrier and enterprise routing and switching contracts, above all in China, Asia, Africa and the Middle East where Cisco bids for the same tenders.
Nokia sells IP routing and optical transport systems to the telecom operators and internet providers that make up Cisco's service-provider segment.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$63.33B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/25/2026)
Net Income
$13.27B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/25/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$12.77B
Total Equity
$50.28B
Total Liabilities
$79.35B
Current Ratio
0.93
Interest Coverage
10.45
Debt/EBITDA
1.53
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$89.73
Current Price
$106.50
Margin of Safety
-18.7%
Fair Value Range
$58.32 - $121.13
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
31.98
ROE
26.4%
P/B Ratio
8.35
P/FCF
32.89
Gross Margin
64.5%
ROIC
13.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
13.8%
WACC
9.7%
ROIC − WACC
+4.0 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 5.32%
- Price CAGR 13.42%
- ROIC 13.8%
- Gross margin 64.5%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 24.3%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 27.4%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.07
- Share dilution -0.2%
- Net margin trend 21.0% vs 18.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (8)
- P/FCF 32.89
- P/B ratio 8.35
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue growth 5Y 4.9%
- Earnings surprise, average 0.6%
- PEG ratio 5.43
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend payout –
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Charles H. Robbins | Chairman & CEO | 59 |
| Mr. Jeetendra I. Patel | President & Chief Product Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Thimaya Subaiya | Executive Vice President of Operations | 46 |
| Ms. Deborah L. Stahlkopf | Executive VP & Chief Legal Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Mark Patterson | Executive VP & CFO | 55 |
| Mr. Nichlas A. Fink | Senior VP, Corporate Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 45 |
| Mr. Andrew Ashton | Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance | - |
| Mr. Ahmed Sami Badri | Head of Investor Relations & Strategic Finance | - |
| Mr. Steve Clayton | Senior VP & Chief Communications Officer | - |
| Mr. Oliver Tuszik | Executive VP of Global Sales & Chief Sales Officer | 57 |
Audit Risk
6
Board Risk
6
Compensation Risk
8
Shareholder Rights Risk
1
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-09-02
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-05-19
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-09
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much CSCO moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 44% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 31.8%
- Volatility 90d
- 34.0%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.10Correlation 0.40
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -19.3%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.70%
Earnings reactions
How CSCO moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 12, 2026 · In 19 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 1.32Revenue estimate: $18.1B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 4.7% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | After the close | 1.06 | 1.06 | +0.4% | -8.0% | -8.4% | -10.8% |
| May 13, 2026 | After the close | 1.04 | 1.04 | -0.2% | +15.4% | +13.4% | +12.3% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | After the close | 1.00 | 1.00 | -0.1% | -6.9% | -12.3% | -8.2% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.4% | +4.6% | +6.0% |
| Aug 13, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.4% | -1.6% | -4.7% |
| May 14, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.9% | +4.8% | +3.1% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.7% | +2.1% | +3.4% |
| Nov 13, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.3% | -2.1% | -2.8% |
| Aug 14, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.3% | +6.8% | +11.0% |
| May 15, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.8% | -2.7% | -4.5% |
| Feb 14, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.0% | -2.4% | -3.4% |
| Nov 15, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -11.0% | -9.8% | -9.8% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on CSCO and what the price did next.
- 10/20/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -0.1%
- +3 days
- -1.2%
- 10/20/2026PositiveStrategist Tom Lee says he’s buying the AI stock dip, and Cisco holds the key
- +1 day
- -0.1%
- +3 days
- -1.2%
- 9/22/2026NegativeAzioni Cisco Systems in mercato ribassista: conviene comprare il ribasso?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/13/2026NegativeCisco stock falls on margin concerns. Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying.
- +1 day
- -9.1%
- +3 days
- -8.9%
- 8/13/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -9.1%
- +3 days
- -8.9%
- 6/3/2026PositiveAfter Dell And HPE's AI-Fueled Surge, Is Cisco The Next 1990s Tech Giant To Break Out?
- +1 day
- -0.5%
- +3 days
- -2.1%
- 5/29/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 5/17/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +0.6%
- +3 days
- -3.5%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for CSCO.
- 4d agoPOSITIVEStrategist Tom Lee says he’s buying the AI stock dip, and Cisco holds the key
Strategist Tom Lee advises investors to capitalize on the current dip in AI-related stocks, suggesting that Cisco Systems (CSCO) offers a compelling entry point. Lee highlights Cisco's historical performance and market position as a key indicator for potential upside, implying that the company's infrastructure is foundational to the broader AI ecosystem. This perspective suggests that despite market anxieties surrounding AI valuations, established players like Cisco are poised to benefit from sustained AI investment, presenting a strategic buying opportunity for those looking to gain exposure to the AI trend through reliable technology infrastructure providers.
- 9/22/2026NEGATIVEAzioni Cisco Systems in mercato ribassista: conviene comprare il ribasso?
Cisco Systems shares have entered a bear market, falling 20% from their year-to-date high to $105. This decline has erased billions in market capitalization, reducing it from $513 billion to $414 billion. The stock's downturn follows a period of profit-taking after reaching an all-time high. Despite a strong earnings report on August 12th, which indicated significant increases in revenue and profits, investors have been selling off shares. This price action suggests a market sentiment shift, with traders exiting positions despite positive fundamental data.
- 8/13/2026NEGATIVECisco stock falls on margin concerns. Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying.
Cisco's stock experienced a decline following analyst concerns regarding potential pressure on gross margins. The focus on the artificial-intelligence 'supercycle' is cited as a key factor, suggesting that the increased investment and demand in AI infrastructure might necessitate higher costs or lead to pricing adjustments that could impact profitability. Investors are closely watching how Cisco navigates this trend, as sustained margin compression could affect future earnings and valuation multiples. The market's reaction indicates a cautious sentiment towards the company's ability to capitalize on AI growth without sacrificing its profit margins.
- 8/12/2026NEUTRALCisco sees record results from an AI ‘supercycle,’ but its stock pulls back
Cisco Systems Inc. reported a record performance, with revenue surging 18% and issuing an optimistic 2027 forecast, signaling strong future growth potential driven by an AI 'supercycle.' Despite these robust results and projections, the company's stock experienced a pullback. This divergence suggests that while the fundamental outlook remains positive, market sentiment or other factors may be influencing short-term price action. Investors will be watching to see if the company can translate its technological advantages and market position into sustained stock appreciation.
- 8/12/2026NEUTRALCisco Beats Estimates, Cerebras Reports Declines | Closing Bell
Cisco Systems Inc. reported earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, though specific figures were not detailed in this summary. The news also mentioned Cerebras Systems experiencing declines, suggesting a mixed performance across technology sectors. The broader market close coverage indicates a focus on U.S. market dynamics. For investors, the positive outcome for Cisco may offer a degree of confidence, but the contrasting performance of Cerebras highlights sector-specific risks and the need for careful stock selection within the technology landscape.
- 7/28/2026NEUTRALAs chips sell off, rattled investors should heed this Cisco Systems lesson from the last millennium
Fundstrat's Tom Lee suggests the market may regain stability within days, drawing a parallel to past resilience exemplified by Cisco Systems' performance in the late 1990s. While the current chip sector faces a sell-off, Lee's commentary implies a belief in eventual market recovery. The historical reference to Cisco, a tech giant that navigated significant market volatility, serves as a reminder of the potential for established companies to rebound. Investors are advised to consider this long-term perspective amidst short-term sector-specific downturns.
- 6/3/2026POSITIVEAfter Dell And HPE's AI-Fueled Surge, Is Cisco The Next 1990s Tech Giant To Break Out?
Cisco Systems Inc. is showing signs of a potential breakout, following the significant AI-driven rallies of Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. While Cisco has lagged its peers, eleven Wall Street firms have recently increased their price targets for the stock. This renewed analyst optimism suggests a potential shift in investor sentiment, as the company might be poised to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI infrastructure and networking solutions, similar to the surges seen in other legacy tech giants.