Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ)
Fair ValueFundamental
68
Price
$313.61
Market Cap
$10.15B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Domino's Pizza is the world's largest pizza company by store count, but it barely runs any restaurants itself: about 99% of its roughly 22,000 stores are owned and operated by independent franchisees. Domino's makes its money instead by selling franchisees the dough, toppings and packaging their stores need, and by charging them a royalty and advertising fee on every sale, an arrangement built around delivery and takeout rather than dine-in.
How it makes money
Supply chain sales — dough, ingredients, equipment and packaging sold to franchised and company-owned stores — make up most of revenue but carry thin, distribution-style margins. Royalties and advertising fees, a fixed percentage of each franchisee's retail sales, are much smaller in dollars but far more profitable since Domino's incurs no store-level cost to earn them. A small number of company-owned stores and international master-franchisee royalties fill out the rest.
Revenue by segment
Sale of dough, ingredients, equipment and packaging to franchised and company-owned stores across the US and Canada.
Royalties and advertising fees from US franchisees plus retail sales from the small number of company-owned stores.
Royalties from independent master franchisees who operate the Domino's brand outside the United States.
Competitive moat
Brand · NarrowDomino's brand recognition, delivery-focused store footprint and years of investment in ordering technology give it real advantages of scale and habit over independent pizzerias. But pizza remains a low-cost, easily substituted meal, and the company competes against comparably resourced national chains, so the edge is real but not durable enough to call wide.
What drives demand
DefensiveA delivered pizza is one of the cheapest hot-meal options available, so demand tends to hold up better than at sit-down restaurants when consumers pull back spending, and some customers trade down to Domino's from pricier alternatives during a downturn. Growth still depends on store openings and comparable-sales trends, but the category itself is fairly resistant to the economic cycle.
Key risks
- Dependence on independent franchisees — With about 99% of stores franchised, Domino's results depend on thousands of independent operators executing the brand consistently; if franchisees struggle with labor, rent or delivery economics, royalty and supply chain income weaken quickly.
- Commodity and input cost inflation — Cheese, meat toppings and other ingredient costs fluctuate, and Domino's may not be able to pass every cost increase through to franchisees and customers without slowing demand.
- Concentrated ingredient supply — The company relies on a single supplier or a limited number of suppliers for certain key ingredients, including pizza cheese and meat toppings, so a disruption at one of them could affect stores broadly.
- Reliance on independent international master franchisees — Most markets outside the US are run by independent master franchisees rather than Domino's directly, exposing international royalty income to local currency swings, political conditions and the execution of partners it does not control.
The case for
Buyers argue that the franchised, asset-light model converts store growth into high-margin royalty income with little capital from Domino's, that pizza delivery holds up well in tougher economic conditions, and that continued international expansion through master franchisees gives the brand room to grow well beyond its mature US store base.
The case against
Sellers fear that thousands of franchisees facing labor and rent inflation could slow new-store openings and squeeze the supply chain business that generates most of Domino's dollar revenue, that commodity cost spikes are hard to fully pass through, and that heavy reliance on delivery leaves Domino's exposed to costly competition from food-delivery apps and other chains.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Pizza Hut, Yum! Brands' pizza chain, is the competitor Domino's names first in its 10-K and the second-largest US pizza chain, chasing the same delivery and carryout pizza orders in the United States and in most international markets.
Domino's 10-K names order and delivery aggregation companies among its competitors: DoorDash captures the same delivered-meal occasion, offering the customer thousands of restaurants, including pizzerias, instead of a Domino's order.
Papa John's runs the same franchised delivery-and-carryout pizza model in the US and abroad, and is the other listed chain Domino's names as a direct competitor at home and internationally.
Little Caesars is the third chain named in Domino's 10-K and the closest rival on price, competing for the same value-driven US pizza customer with about $4.9 billion of 2024 domestic sales; it is privately held by Ilitch Holdings.
Marco's Pizza is the fastest-growing of the large US franchised pizza chains and the fifth by sales, opening stores in the same suburban delivery trade areas Domino's serves; it is privately held.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$5.07B
Trailing 12 months (through 9/6/2026)
Net Income
$609M
Trailing 12 months (through 9/6/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$672M
Total Equity
$-3.90B
Total Liabilities
$5.62B
Current Ratio
0.49
Interest Coverage
5.02
Debt/EBITDA
4.91
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$327.38
Current Price
$313.61
Margin of Safety
+4.2%
Fair Value Range
$278.43 - $376.33
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
17.28
ROE
-15.4%
P/B Ratio
-
P/FCF
16.23
Gross Margin
40.0%
ROIC
-698.5%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-698.5%
WACC
7.6%
ROIC − WACC
-706.1 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 17.23%
- Price CAGR 6.41%
- Gross margin 40.0%
- P/FCF 16.23
- Operating margin 19.7%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 31.9%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.25
- Share dilution -2.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 9/9
Failed (7)
- ROIC -698.5%
- Current ratio
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue growth 5Y 3.7%
- Earnings surprise, average -2.2%
- PEG ratio 2.30
- Net margin trend 12.0% vs 12.2%
Unavailable (4)
- P/B ratio –
- Dividend payout –
- Debt/equity ratio
- Price below Graham Number
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. David Allen Brandon | Executive Chairman | 73 |
| Mr. Russell J. Weiner | CEO & Director | 57 |
| Mr. Sandeep Reddy C.F.A. | Executive VP & CFO | 54 |
| Mr. Joseph Hugh Jordan | COO & President of U.S. | 51 |
| Ms. Cynthia A. Headen | Executive Vice President & Chief Supply Chain Officer | 56 |
| Mr. Brian James Pangburn | VP, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller | 40 |
| Mr. Gregory J. Lemenchick | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Ryan K. Mulally | Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 50 |
| Ms. Katherine E. Trumbull | Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer | 43 |
| Ms. Maureen S. Pittenger | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 51 |
Audit Risk
6
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
8
Shareholder Rights Risk
8
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-23
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-13
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-13
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much DPZ moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 52% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 32.5%
- Volatility 90d
- 36.8%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.07Correlation 0.03
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -35.4%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.07%
Earnings reactions
How DPZ moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 4.0% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Before the open | 4.38 | 4.60 | +5.0% | -7.7% | -4.8% | -1.5% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | During the session | 4.21 | 4.07 | -3.4% | +6.4% | +2.1% | +3.3% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | During the session | 4.31 | 3.96 | -8.1% | -7.2% | -8.8% | -8.2% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | During the session | 5.43 | 5.35 | -1.4% | +4.5% | +4.1% | +4.7% |
| Oct 14, 2025 | During the session | 4.01 | 4.08 | +1.7% | -0.2% | +3.9% | +3.6% |
| Jul 21, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.9% | -0.8% | +4.2% |
| Apr 28, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.2% | +0.6% | -0.6% |
| Feb 24, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.6% | -1.5% | +5.9% |
| Oct 10, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.1% | -1.1% | +3.7% |
| Jul 18, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -13.4% | -13.6% | -10.3% |
| Apr 29, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.3% | +5.6% | +3.1% |
| Feb 26, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.8% | +5.8% | +3.1% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on DPZ and what the price did next.
- 10/13/2026NegativeDomino's Pizza in calo, pesa la crescita debole delle vendite
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 7/20/2026PositiveDomino’s shares jump as franchise store operators spend more on ingredients
- +1 day
- +2.3%
- +3 days
- -1.3%
- 5/16/2026NegativeAmerica's Pizza Business Is Feeling The Squeeze As Another Chain Files For Bankruptcy While Domino's, Papa John's Warn Consumers Are Pulling Back
- +1 day
- +2.0%
- +3 days
- +4.2%
- 4/27/2026NegativeDomino's Hit By Budget-Conscious Diners, Shares Tumble
- +1 day
- -9.0%
- +3 days
- -9.3%
- 3/8/2026PositiveIs Domino's Stock Going to $500?
- +1 day
- +0.9%
- +3 days
- -4.3%
- 2/25/2026NegativeHow Prediction Market Traders Won on Domino's Earnings Miss
- +1 day
- -3.3%
- +3 days
- -2.6%
- 2/24/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 2/24/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +2.7%
- +3 days
- -1.3%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for DPZ.
- 11d agoNEGATIVEDomino's Pizza in calo, pesa la crescita debole delle vendite
Domino's Pizza Inc. experienced a significant decline, with its stock price falling by 3.87%. This downturn is attributed to weak sales growth reported in the third quarter. The company, a prominent player in the fast-food pizza delivery sector, faces challenges in maintaining its growth trajectory. Investors are closely monitoring the impact of these sales figures on future earnings and market share. The negative performance suggests potential headwinds for the company, possibly related to increased competition or changing consumer preferences.
- 7/20/2026POSITIVEDomino’s shares jump as franchise store operators spend more on ingredients
Domino's Pizza Inc. saw its shares surge approximately 7% in pre-market trading following the release of its second-quarter financial results. The company reported revenue that exceeded analyst estimates by around 2.5%. This positive performance is attributed to increased spending by franchise store operators on ingredients, suggesting robust demand and operational efficiency within the franchise network. For investors, this indicates a strengthening top-line performance and potential for continued growth, possibly leading to upward revisions in earnings forecasts and stock price targets.
- 5/16/2026NEGATIVEAmerica's Pizza Business Is Feeling The Squeeze As Another Chain Files For Bankruptcy While Domino's, Papa John's Warn Consumers Are Pulling Back
The US pizza industry is facing significant headwinds, with Smoking Monkey Pizza filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. This follows reports of Pizza Hut store closures and Domino's Pizza warning of consumer pullback due to economic pressures. Domino's, a major player, is experiencing weak sales as consumers become more price-sensitive and reduce discretionary spending. This broad industry weakness suggests a challenging environment for major pizza chains, potentially impacting future revenue and profitability for companies like Domino's and Papa John's.
- 4/27/2026NEGATIVEDomino's Hit By Budget-Conscious Diners, Shares Tumble
Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) shares experienced a significant decline following the release of its Q1 financial results, which fell short of analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings. The company cited a combination of persistent inflation and evolving consumer spending habits as key factors impacting its performance. Budget-conscious diners appear to be reducing discretionary spending on dining out, directly affecting Domino's sales volumes. This trend suggests a challenging near-term outlook for the pizza chain, potentially leading to further pressure on its stock price as investors reassess growth prospects.
- 3/8/2026POSITIVEIs Domino's Stock Going to $500?
Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) stock is trading below its three-year average valuation, suggesting a potential undervaluation. Analysts are questioning if the current price point could propel the stock towards the $500 mark. This valuation metric, when compared to historical performance, often signals an opportunity for investors looking for growth at a reasonable price. The company's ability to maintain market share and innovate its delivery services will be key factors in realizing this potential upside.
- 2/25/2026NEGATIVEHow Prediction Market Traders Won on Domino's Earnings Miss
Domino's Pizza reported a disappointing fourth quarter, missing analysts' earnings estimates. Despite this setback, 'no' contract holders on Polymarket's prediction markets still managed to profit, indicating that some investors correctly anticipated the underperformance. This outcome suggests potential short-term pressure on Domino's stock, as the market typically reacts negatively to earnings misses. Investors should closely monitor the company's upcoming announcements and market reactions to assess the long-term impact of this performance.