Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN)
Fair ValueFundamental
69
Price
$11.74
Market Cap
$1.88B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Driven Brands is the largest automotive services company in North America, operating approximately 5,200 locations across 49 U.S. states and 13 countries. The company provides automotive repair, maintenance, collision, glass, and car wash services through an established portfolio of regional and national brands including Take 5 Oil Change, Meineke Car Care Centers, MAACO, CARSTAR, Take 5 Car Wash, and 1-800 Radiator & A/C.
How it makes money
The company generates revenue through three channels: franchise royalties and fees paid by franchisees (typically a percentage of gross sales), retail sales at company-operated locations, and supply sales to franchisees and network members. In fiscal 2024, system-wide sales across the entire network reached $6.5 billion, of which the company retained $2.3 billion as net revenue, demonstrating the operational leverage of the franchise-heavy model.
Revenue by segment
Consists of Take 5 Oil Change (463 franchised, 718 company-operated locations) and Meineke Car Care Centers (779 franchised locations). Provides oil changes, fluid services, filters, belts, batteries, and general automotive maintenance to retail customers. Revenue generated from franchise royalties, company-operated retail sales, and supply sales to franchisees.
Operates Take 5 Car Wash (382 company-operated U.S. locations) and IMO (720 international locations). Provides express-style conveyor car wash services with significant recurring revenue from membership subscriptions, which comprised 69% of domestic car wash revenue in 2024. Serves both retail and commercial fleet customers.
Portfolio includes CARSTAR, ABRA, Fix Auto, MAACO, AGN, and Uniban brands operating 1,912 locations. Provides collision repair, painting, glass services, and insurance claims management. Generated approximately $2.4 billion in system-wide sales from relationships with insurance carriers in 2024. Serves both retail and commercial customers including insurance companies and commercial fleet operators.
Includes 1-800 Radiator & A/C (205 franchised locations), Spire Supply (in-house distribution of consumables), Driven Advantage (e-commerce procurement platform), and Automotive Training Institute. Provides procurement advantages, proprietary distribution capabilities, and training services to network members. Creates operational benefits and switching costs that strengthen franchisee loyalty and system-wide profitability.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowDriven Brands' competitive advantage rests primarily on scale and an established brand portfolio. The company operates 5,200+ locations generating $6.5 billion in system-wide sales, creating operational leverage in procurement, marketing, and technology that smaller competitors cannot replicate. Established regional and national brands (Take 5, MAACO, CARSTAR, Meineke) provide customer familiarity built over decades. Platform services including proprietary distribution and training create moderate switching costs for franchisees who benefit from lower supply costs and operational support. However, the moat is narrow: the automotive services market remains highly fragmented with low barriers to entry for independent operators; technology advantages in data analytics and site selection are easily replicable; and the industry faces structural headwinds from electrification and autonomous driving that erode demand for traditional repair services.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalDemand exhibits moderate cyclicality driven by multiple overlapping factors. Defensive characteristics include vehicle age—older vehicle owners need maintenance regardless of economic conditions. Cyclical characteristics include economic sensitivity (recessions cause customers to defer maintenance; prosperity leads consumers to purchase new vehicles rather than service older ones), vehicle miles traveled (affected by fuel prices and remote work trends), used car prices (lower used car values increase total loss claims, reducing repair demand), and seasonal weather patterns (inclement weather reduces car wash and maintenance demand). The business has some stability from the installed base of older vehicles requiring regular service, but earnings fluctuate with economic cycles and consumer purchasing behavior.
Key risks
- Electric vehicle and autonomous driving adoption reduce service demand — Electrification of the vehicle fleet reduces demand for oil changes, fluid services, and traditional maintenance. Autonomous vehicle technology and improvements in original equipment manufacturer quality reduce the frequency of collision repairs, glass services, and general maintenance. The company acknowledges that historical improvements in component durability (such as stainless steel exhaust systems) have reduced repair demand, establishing precedent for how technology advances erode aftermarket service needs.
- Economic downturns reduce discretionary service demand — During economic downturns, consumers defer or forgo vehicle maintenance, oil changes, and car washes. Conversely, during economic prosperity, consumers purchase new vehicles rather than servicing older ones, reducing demand for aftermarket services. This cyclical sensitivity creates earnings volatility and makes franchisee unit economics vulnerable to economic stress.
- Intense fragmented competition erodes pricing power — The automotive services market is highly fragmented with competition from independent repair shops, dealerships, online retailers, and mass-market chains. The company notes that some competitors have greater brand recognition and greater financial, marketing, operating, and other resources. Market fragmentation enables price discounting and prevents sustained pricing power, pressuring margins across all segments.
- Franchisee financial stress damages brand reputation and royalty streams — The company's revenue depends critically on franchisee financial health and operational compliance with brand standards. Franchisee financial failure or quality lapses damage brand reputation, reduce customer traffic, and create lease obligations when franchisees cannot pay sublease rent. Franchisee risk intensifies during economic downturns when capital becomes scarce and unit economics deteriorate.
- Vehicle age demographics may be peaking — Demand for maintenance and repair services correlates with vehicle age; older vehicles require more frequent service. A shift toward a younger average fleet age—driven by increased new vehicle sales, improved vehicle longevity, or changing consumer preferences—could structurally reduce service demand. The median vehicle age may have peaked, potentially shrinking the addressable market for maintenance and repair services.
- Supply chain disruption and labor cost inflation pressure margins — The company depends on suppliers for parts and materials; significant international sourcing exposure creates vulnerability to supply chain disruption. Labor availability and cost pressures—including wage inflation and healthcare expenses—directly impact profitability across company-operated locations and franchisee economics. Skilled labor shortages threaten operational margins.
Customer concentration
Revenue is diversified across multiple customer segments without material concentration. The company serves retail customers accessing automotive services, commercial fleet operators, and insurance carriers. The Paint, Collision & Glass segment generated approximately $2.4 billion in system-wide sales from insurance relationships in 2024, representing a significant customer category but without disclosure of any individual insurer representing a material percentage of total revenue. The company's 5,200-location network across multiple service categories and geographies limits dependence on any single customer or customer group.
The case for
Buyers argue that Driven Brands is positioned to benefit from its dominant scale—5,200+ locations generating $6.5 billion in annual system-wide sales creates operational leverage difficult for smaller competitors to match. The franchise-heavy model (with 1,300 units pending) requires minimal capital for growth while providing visibility into future revenue streams. Take 5 Oil Change has demonstrated 18 consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales growth and is expanding from approximately 1,100 to a target of 2,500+ locations, providing a multi-year growth runway. Platform services (distribution, training, e-commerce) create stickiness and switching costs for franchisees, strengthening unit economics and system-wide retention. Insurance relationships in the Paint, Collision & Glass segment provide stable, recurring revenue from commercial customers less price-sensitive than retail. The aging vehicle fleet ensures ongoing maintenance demand even during economic cycles, as vehicle owners must service older cars regardless of economic conditions. Recent capital allocation (authorized $100 million share buyback representing ~5% of market cap) signals management confidence.
The case against
Sellers fear that structural technology disruption from electric vehicles and autonomous driving will durably reduce demand for traditional automotive repair and maintenance services. The company's net loss of $292 million in 2024 despite $2.3 billion in revenue raises concerns about margin sustainability and leverage management. The franchised operating model creates operational risk: franchisee financial stress or quality lapses directly damage brand reputation and reduce royalty streams, and this risk amplifies during recessions when capital access tightens. Intense fragmented competition from independent shops, online retailers, and dealerships prevents pricing power and forces margin compression. The company's growth depends on franchisee access to capital and ability to execute the 1,300-unit pipeline—both of which weaken during economic downturns. Demand cyclicality creates volatile earnings, and the aging vehicle fleet that now drives demand may be peaking, as new vehicle sales recover and fleet composition shifts younger. Original equipment manufacturer durability improvements continue to reduce aftermarket service needs structurally, independent of any cyclical recovery.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Valvoline's ~2,000 quick-lube service centres compete store-for-store with Driven Brands' Take 5 Oil Change for the same drive-through oil-change customer across North America.
The largest quick-lube chain in North America with roughly 2,000 franchised shops, Jiffy Lube targets exactly the fast oil change and routine maintenance business that drives Driven Brands' Maintenance segment; it is a subsidiary being sold by Shell to a private equity buyer and has no listing of its own.
Monro runs about 1,200 company-operated undercar repair and tire stores in the eastern United States, selling the same brakes, exhaust, suspension and maintenance work as Driven Brands' Meineke Car Care Centers.
Through Gerber Collision & Glass, Boyd Autobody & Glass and Glass America, Boyd is the listed North American consolidator of collision repair and auto glass, chasing the same insurer-referred repair jobs as Driven Brands' CARSTAR, ABRA, Fix Auto and AutoGlassNow.
Caliber is the largest collision repair operator in the United States with more than 1,700 centres and the market leader Driven Brands' paint and collision brands face on insurance direct-repair programmes; it is privately held and has no ticker.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$1.93B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Net Income
$165M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$108M
Total Equity
$767M
Total Liabilities
$3.39B
Current Ratio
1.47
Interest Coverage
1.91
Debt/EBITDA
7.09
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$13.70
Current Price
$11.74
Margin of Safety
+14.3%
Fair Value Range
$10.77 - $16.63
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
11.74
ROE
18.3%
P/B Ratio
2.32
P/FCF
14.48
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
6.7%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
6.7%
WACC
6.7%
ROIC − WACC
+0.0 pp
ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 45.39%
- ROIC 6.7%
- P/FCF 14.48
- P/B ratio 2.32
- Operating margin 14.0%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 22.1%
- Revenue growth 5Y 15.6%
- Earnings surprise, average 17.1%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.89
- Net margin trend 8.6% vs -14.4%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (8)
- Price CAGR -18.17%
- Debt/equity ratio
- CapEx intensity
- Debt/EBITDA
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Share dilution 4.9%
Unavailable (3)
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Daniel R. Rivera J.D. | President, CEO & Director | 45 |
| Mr. Michael Diamond | CFO & Executive VP | - |
| Mr. Muhammed Khalid | Executive VP & COO | 43 |
| Mr. Scott L. O'Melia | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary | 55 |
| Ms. Rebecca Fondell | SVP & Chief Accounting Officer | 41 |
| Ms. Karen Conrad | Executive VP & Chief Information Officer | - |
| Mr. Steve Alexander | Senior Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Bart LaCount | Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer | - |
| Mr. Kyle L. Marshall | Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer | 46 |
| Mr. Tim Austin | Executive VP & President of Take 5 Oil Change | - |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
6
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-05-19
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-06
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-15
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much DRVN moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 68% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 34.8%
- Volatility 90d
- 45.5%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.45Correlation 0.11
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -39.7%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.75%
Earnings reactions
How DRVN moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 29, 2026 · In 5 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 0.29Revenue estimate: $515M
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 5.0% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 7, down 5 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Before the open | 0.27 | 0.29 | +7.8% | -2.1% | -11.3% | -14.8% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.2% | +2.1% | -7.3% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | After the close | 0.26 | 0.30 | +16.7% | -9.4% | -3.1% | -3.6% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Before the open | 0.31 | 0.34 | +9.6% | +3.3% | +5.3% | -3.3% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.1% | +2.0% | -2.6% |
| May 6, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.0% | +6.6% | +3.5% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.2% | +2.1% | +12.3% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.4% | +4.7% | +14.3% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.7% | +8.0% | -3.7% |
| May 2, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.8% | -20.3% | -23.4% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -15.0% | -11.1% | -6.9% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.1% | -4.0% | +1.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on DRVN and what the price did next.
- 5/20/2026NegativeDriven Brands Analysts Slash Their Forecasts Following Q4 Results
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 5/18/2026NegativeDriven Brands Likely To Report Lower Q4 Earnings; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call
- +1 day
- +9.6%
- +3 days
- -0.4%
- 2/25/2026NegativeWhy Driven Brands Stock Crashed Today
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for DRVN.
- 6/11/2026NEUTRALDriven Brands Hldgs Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript
Driven Brands Holdings Inc. has released its Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript. While the transcript itself is a factual record of the call, it does not contain specific financial results, forward-looking statements, or market-moving news that would allow for a definitive signal classification. Investors would need to consult the actual earnings report or subsequent analyst commentary to ascertain the financial performance and outlook for Driven Brands. The transcript serves as a reference for discussions held during the call.
- 5/20/2026NEGATIVEDriven Brands Analysts Slash Their Forecasts Following Q4 Results
Despite Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:DRVN) reporting Q4 earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, a notable shift has occurred in analyst sentiment. Several analysts have revised their price targets downwards following the Q4 results. While buy ratings have largely been maintained, the reduction in price targets suggests a more cautious outlook on the company's near-term growth prospects or valuation. Investors should monitor future guidance and operational performance for signs of sustained profitability and potential upside.
- 5/18/2026NEGATIVEDriven Brands Likely To Report Lower Q4 Earnings; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call
Driven Brands (DRVN) is poised to report a decline in its fourth-quarter earnings, with analysts projecting 24 cents per share, a notable drop from the 30 cents recorded in the same period last year. This forecast precedes the company's earnings call scheduled for May 19th. Despite the anticipated earnings dip, some analysts maintain a positive outlook, with recent ratings including 'Buy' recommendations. However, the downward revision in earnings expectations suggests potential headwinds impacting the company's profitability in the near term, which could influence investor sentiment.
- 2/25/2026NEGATIVEWhy Driven Brands Stock Crashed Today
Driven Brands stock experienced a dramatic plunge today, with shares reportedly 'driving off a cliff' according to initial market reports. This sharp decline has sparked significant concern among investors, who are actively seeking to understand the underlying reasons for such a severe negative performance. While the brief news snippet does not specify the triggers, a movement of this magnitude typically indicates a strong market reaction to significant news, potentially stemming from disappointing financial results, downward revisions in future outlook, or unforeseen corporate events. Analysts are closely monitoring the situation to identify the factors that led to this drastic devaluation, which could impact market confidence in the automotive services sector.