Intel Corporation (INTC)
Fair ValueFundamental
30
Price
$86.96
Market Cap
$474.96B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Intel designs and, unlike most of its chip rivals, still largely manufactures its own processors for PCs and servers. It is trying to run two businesses at once: selling chips under its own brand, and rebuilding Intel Foundry into a manufacturing service that makes chips designed by other companies, in an attempt to catch up with TSMC's lead in advanced manufacturing.
How it makes money
Product revenue is booked when a chip ships, and depends on PC replacement cycles and server upgrade budgets that Intel is no longer the automatic default winner of. Intel Foundry's reported revenue is mostly internal — wafers it manufactures for Intel's own product divisions — so it does not yet represent a large, separate stream of revenue from outside customers; foundry only becomes a real second growth engine once external customers commit to manufacturing there in volume.
Revenue by segment
PC processors (Client Computing Group) and server processors (Data Center and AI), sold externally under the Intel brand. Effectively the whole of Intel's external revenue.
Mobileye's driver-assistance chips and remaining minority stakes in businesses being wound down or divested, such as the stake retained in Altera.
Competitive moat
No identified moat · NoneIntel's historical advantage was owning the best chip factories in the world; it has lost that lead to TSMC over the past decade, and its x86 processors now compete on largely even software terms with AMD's. Intel Foundry is a bid to rebuild a manufacturing-scale advantage, but it has not yet proven it can attract enough outside customers to become one.
What drives demand
CyclicalPC and server chip demand follows corporate refresh budgets and consumer replacement cycles, which move in multi-year waves and are sensitive to the broader economy. Foundry demand, once it exists at scale, will follow the even longer capital-commitment cycles of chip design customers deciding years in advance where to manufacture.
Key risks
- Uncertain foundry turnaround — Intel is investing very heavily to build advanced manufacturing capacity for Intel Foundry, but it has not yet secured external customer commitments at a scale that justifies that spending, and may not.
- Competitive pressure in core products — AMD has taken share in PC and server processors, and NVIDIA dominates the AI accelerator market Intel has struggled to enter. Losing further ground in either core market pressures both volume and price.
- Heavy, long-payback capital spending — New fabrication plants cost tens of billions of dollars and take years to become productive. If demand or foundry customer wins fall short, Intel carries the fixed costs of capacity it cannot fill.
- Execution risk on manufacturing roadmap — Intel's plan depends on hitting a series of new manufacturing process milestones on schedule after years of past delays; another slip would extend the gap with TSMC and further discourage outside foundry customers.
The case for
Buyers argue that Intel Foundry, once its newest manufacturing process matures, gives Intel a path back to competing with TSMC and a second growth engine beyond its own chips, backed by government support for domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
The case against
Sellers fear that Intel is funding an extremely expensive foundry turnaround with a core products business that keeps losing share to AMD and NVIDIA, and that without outside foundry customers the enormous capital spending underway may never earn an adequate return.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
AMD is the only other large supplier of x86 processors and sells directly against Intel in PC chips, server CPUs and discrete graphics, to the same PC makers and cloud operators.
NVIDIA takes the data-center budget Intel is trying to win with its accelerators and Xeon platforms, and also competes with Intel in graphics for PCs.
Qualcomm's Arm-based Snapdragon X processors are sold to the same Windows notebook manufacturers that Intel supplies, competing design win by design win.
TSMC is the company Intel Foundry must take manufacturing contracts from, since both sell advanced chip production to the same fabless customers such as Apple, NVIDIA and AMD.
GlobalFoundries competes with Intel Foundry for outsourced chip manufacturing on mature process nodes, serving the same customers who need capacity outside Asia.
Samsung's foundry division bids for the same leading-edge manufacturing orders as Intel Foundry and is named by Intel itself as a direct foundry competitor.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$57.03B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Net Income
$-11.29B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-4.95B
Total Equity
$114.28B
Total Liabilities
$85.07B
Current Ratio
1.60
Interest Coverage
0.07
Debt/EBITDA
3.00
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$73.75
Current Price
$86.96
Margin of Safety
-17.9%
Fair Value Range
$47.94 - $99.56
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-0.2%
P/B Ratio
5.01
P/FCF
154.94
Gross Margin
38.6%
ROIC
-0.0%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-0.0%
WACC
16.0%
ROIC − WACC
-16.1 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (9)
- Price CAGR 12.95%
- Gross margin 38.6%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Earnings surprise, average 1,086.3%
- Net margin trend -19.8% vs -38.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (13)
- EPS shows upward trend
- ROIC -0.0%
- P/FCF 154.94
- P/B ratio 5.01
- Operating margin -0.1%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE -10.8%
- Revenue growth 5Y -7.5%
- Share dilution 3.9%
Unavailable (4)
- Dividend payout –
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Lip-Bu Tan | CEO & Director | 66 |
| Mr. David A. Zinsner | Executive VP, CFO and Principal Financial & Accounting Officer | 56 |
| Mr. Nagasubramaniyan Chandrasekaran | Executive VP, Chief Technology and Operations Officer & GM of Intel Foundry | 50 |
| Ms. Cynthia A. Stoddard | Senior VP & Chief Information Officer | 68 |
| Mr. John William Pitzer | Corporate Vice President of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Aparna Bawa Esq. | Executive VP and Chief Legal & People Officer | 46 |
| Ms. Annie Shea Weckesser | Senior VP and Chief Marketing & Communications Officer | - |
Audit Risk
8
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-01-23
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-24
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-12
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much INTC moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 92% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 66.8%
- Volatility 90d
- 72.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 3.07Correlation 0.50
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -41.9%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 6.47%
Earnings reactions
How INTC moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 29, 2026 · In 5 days · After the close
EPS estimate: 0.40Revenue estimate: $16.5B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 8.9% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 4, down 8 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 2.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | After the close | 0.22 | 0.42 | +92.9% | +0.1% | -7.9% | -9.1% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | After the close | 0.01 | 0.29 | +1971.4% | +23.1% | +23.6% | +41.5% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | After the close | 0.08 | 0.15 | +80.9% | -13.7% | -17.0% | -10.4% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | After the close | 0.01 | 0.23 | +2200.0% | +4.9% | +0.3% | +5.2% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -8.6% | -8.5% | -12.5% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -8.2% | -6.7% | -7.0% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.4% | -2.9% | -3.1% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.9% | +7.8% | +21.9% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -24.5% | -26.1% | -29.5% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -9.5% | -9.2% | -13.1% |
| Jan 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -10.8% | -11.9% | -12.5% |
| Oct 26, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.6% | +9.3% | +15.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on INTC and what the price did next.
- 10/22/2026NegativePerché le azioni Intel e AMD scendono giovedì?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/21/2026NegativePrevisioni su Intel: il pattern di Wyckoff avverte di nuove perdite
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/19/2026PositiveWhy a former Intel skeptic is giving up his negative call on the stock after four years
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/15/2026NegativeIntel e AMD affondano ancora giovedì: cosa c'è dietro il calo?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/14/2026NegativeAzioni Intel e AMD in calo mentre la svendita dei chip si approfondisce
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/13/2026NegativePerché le azioni di Intel e AMD scendono martedì?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/8/2026NegativePerché le azioni di Intel e AMD stanno crollando giovedì?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/7/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +0.8%
- +3 days
- -6.9%
- 10/5/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/29/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +0.1%
- +3 days
- +3.6%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for INTC.
- 2d agoNEGATIVEPerché le azioni Intel e AMD scendono giovedì?
Intel (INTC) and AMD shares plummeted on Thursday, with Intel down 6.17% and AMD off 6.64% in morning trading. This decline is attributed to a broader market sell-off driven by surging oil prices and renewed concerns over the returns on artificial intelligence (AI) investments. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell approximately 4%, indicating widespread pressure on chip stocks. Investors are reassessing the sustainability of AI-driven growth amidst macroeconomic headwinds and shifting investment sentiment, leading to a more cautious approach across the tech sector.
- 3d agoNEGATIVEPrevisioni su Intel: il pattern di Wyckoff avverte di nuove perdite
Intel Corporation's stock has entered a bear market, declining 34% from its all-time high, with market capitalization falling from $707 billion to $493 billion. The company is being liquidated by investors focused on high-growth AI companies. Technical analysis using the Wyckoff Method suggests further downside potential, indicating the stock may still be in a markdown phase. This pattern, characterized by accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, implies that Intel's price action could continue to fall, presenting a bearish outlook for investors.
- 5d agoPOSITIVEWhy a former Intel skeptic is giving up his negative call on the stock after four years
A J.P. Morgan analyst has reversed a four-year-long negative stance on Intel Corporation, upgrading the stock to a 'buy' rating. The analyst cited significant improvements in Intel's manufacturing processes and chip design capabilities as key drivers for the change. This marks a notable shift in sentiment, suggesting that Intel's strategic initiatives in regaining semiconductor manufacturing leadership are beginning to yield positive results. Investors may view this upgrade as a signal of potential turnaround and renewed growth prospects for the company.
- 9d agoNEGATIVEIntel e AMD affondano ancora giovedì: cosa c'è dietro il calo?
Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares continued their decline on Thursday, extending a broader sell-off in the semiconductor sector. Intel shares dropped 3.84%, while AMD fell approximately 3.77%. This marks a challenging period for both chip manufacturers, with AMD closing higher in only one of the last seven sessions and Intel losing nearly 20% in October. The weakness stems from investor reassessment of the artificial intelligence industry's prospects, citing rising financing costs, doubts about AI investment returns, and emerging concerns within the sector.
- 10d agoNEGATIVEAzioni Intel e AMD in calo mentre la svendita dei chip si approfondisce
Intel Corporation and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. saw their stock prices decline significantly on Wednesday, continuing a broader downturn in the semiconductor sector. This slump is attributed to concerns over high valuations, rising financing costs, and intensified competition from China. Despite positive results from chip manufacturing equipment supplier ASML, Intel shares dropped approximately 3.3%, while AMD fell by 4.64%. Marvell Technology also experienced a notable decrease of over 6.2%. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) extended its losing streak to six consecutive sessions, indicating a widespread bearish sentiment among investors in the chip industry.
- 11d agoNEGATIVEPerché le azioni di Intel e AMD scendono martedì?
Intel and AMD shares declined on Tuesday amid a broad sell-off in semiconductor stocks. The downturn was attributed to intensifying competition from China and concerns that funding constraints could impede AI infrastructure expansion. Intel saw a 1.4% drop, while AMD shares fell over 1%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged more than 2%, underscoring the sector-wide pressure. Investors are reassessing the impact of China's advancements in chip manufacturing, leading to a cautious outlook for semiconductor companies.
- 12d agoNEUTRALI CEO di Intel e Broadcom: il rischio che potrebbe frenare il boom dell'IA
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger and Broadcom CEO Hock Tan have raised concerns about a potential short-term risk to the artificial intelligence boom. While AI investments are pouring billions into data centers and advanced chips, creating opportunities for companies like Intel and Broadcom, doubts are emerging about the sustainability of the current investment pace. The CEOs' comments suggest that the rapid growth phase might face headwinds, potentially impacting future demand and investment cycles for AI infrastructure. Investors should monitor the companies' strategies for navigating this potential slowdown.
- 16d agoNEGATIVEPerché le azioni di Intel e AMD stanno crollando giovedì?
Intel (INTC) shares plunged approximately 6% on Thursday, while AMD saw a decline of over 4%. This downturn occurred amidst a broad sell-off in US equities, exacerbated by rising oil prices and Treasury yields, which fueled inflation and interest rate concerns. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also fell sharply by over 3.8%. Brent crude futures surged 4.2% to surpass $104 per barrel due to Middle East supply worries and US production disruptions. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.3%, nearing recent highs. Investors are reassessing risk exposure in light of these macroeconomic pressures.