Nel ASA (NLLSF)
NEGATIVEFundamental
29
Price
$2.12
Market Cap
$3.82B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Nel ASA makes the equipment that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity, a process called electrolysis, for customers who want to produce hydrogen as an industrial input or fuel without burning fossil fuels. It sells two competing technologies — alkaline electrolysers, built at its Herøya plant in Norway, and proton-exchange-membrane (PEM) electrolysers, built in Connecticut — to industrial gas companies, energy firms and other buyers pursuing hydrogen projects. Nel spun off its hydrogen refueling-station business as a separate listed company, Cavendish Hydrogen, in mid-2024.
How it makes money
Revenue comes from selling electrolyser equipment on a project-by-project basis, so results depend heavily on how many customers reach a final investment decision and place an order in a given period, not on repeat, predictable purchases. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 31% to NOK 963 million from NOK 1,390 million, driven by a sharp drop in alkaline-electrolyser sales that a smaller gain in PEM sales only partly offset — a sign of how lumpy and order-dependent revenue still is in an industry where large hydrogen projects are still early and often delayed.
What drives demand
CyclicalOrders depend on customers committing capital to large, multi-year hydrogen production projects, decisions that are highly sensitive to government subsidies, the price of competing fossil-fuel-based hydrogen, and the cost of the renewable electricity the process consumes. When any of these turns unfavorable, customers can and do delay final investment decisions, leaving Nel's order book thin for extended periods.
The case for
Buyers argue that offering both alkaline and PEM technology lets Nel serve whichever projects favor either approach, that spinning off the refueling business focuses the company on its larger electrolyser opportunity, and that a rebound in PEM orders points to renewed customer interest once project financing conditions improve.
The case against
Sellers fear that a 31% revenue decline in a single year shows how few large hydrogen projects are actually reaching a final investment decision, that project-based orders make revenue inherently unpredictable from one year to the next, and that Nel remains unprofitable while it waits for the hydrogen market to scale.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$935M
Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics
Net Income
$-1.65B
Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics
Free Cash Flow
$-598M
Total Equity
$3.60B
Total Liabilities
$218M
Current Ratio
4.00
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$2.08
Current Price
$2.12
Margin of Safety
-1.7%
Fair Value Range
$1.98 - $2.19
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-30.3%
P/B Ratio
1.05
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
57.9%
ROIC
-25.9%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-25.9%
WACC
7.6%
ROIC − WACC
-33.5 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (5)
- Gross Margin 57.9%
- P/B Ratio 1.05
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Current Ratio
- Revenue Growth 5Y 8.1%
Failed (10)
- Price CAGR 0.67%
- ROIC -25.9%
- Operating Margin -147.6%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE -32.0%
- Analyst Consensus 5% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg -170.1%
- Net Margin Trend -115.0% vs -16.3%
- Piotroski F-Score 1/9
Unavailable (12)
- EPS data insufficient
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Kjell Christian Bjornsen | Chief Financial Officer | 49 |
| Mr. Marius Løken | Chief Technical Officer | 48 |
| Mr. Stein Ove Erdal J.D. | Chief Legal Officer | 46 |
| Ms. Anne Liberg | Chief People & Culture Officer (CHRO) | - |
| Mr. Todd Cartwright | Chief Commercial Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Tushar Ghuwalewala | Senior VP of PEM Operations | - |
| Ms. Birgitte Nordvik | Chief Project Officer | - |
| Mr. Mats Bohman | Vice President of Alkaline Operations | - |
| Mr. Wilhelm Flinder | Head of IR, Communications & Marketing | - |
| Tomas Tronstad | Managing Director of Hyon | - |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
6
Shareholder Rights Risk
1
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for NLLSF, sourced from Markets Gazette.