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Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX)

Fair Value
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

Fundamental

67

Price

$70.58

Market Cap

$18.11B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Nutanix sells software that lets a company run its own private cloud on standard servers instead of renting capacity from Amazon, Microsoft or Google, or instead of buying expensive specialized storage hardware. The software pools compute, storage and virtualization into a single system that IT staff can manage from one console. It does not make the servers itself: customers buy the hardware from partners like Dell, Lenovo or HPE and install Nutanix's software on top of it.

How it makes money

Nutanix sells software licenses and support as term subscriptions rather than one-time purchases, typically for three or five years, most of it recognized upfront when the contract starts with the remainder recognized ratably as support and services are delivered over the term. Most sales go through the same server makers and distributors whose hardware runs Nutanix's software, and through IT resellers, rather than direct to end customers, so its growth depends heavily on how well those partners choose to sell it.

Revenue by segment

Support, Entitlements and Other Services52.1%

Technical support, software updates and other services revenue, recognized gradually over the life of the subscription rather than upfront.

Product Revenue47.9%

Upfront software license fees recognized when a multi-year subscription contract begins, covering the core Nutanix Cloud Platform software.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Narrow

Once a company's virtual machines, storage and data run on Nutanix's platform, migrating away means re-architecting how servers are provisioned and risking downtime — the same friction that has driven customers away from VMware since Broadcom raised its prices. That friction protects Nutanix's installed base, but it is not unique: Nutanix itself is winning share by exploiting exactly this dynamic against a larger incumbent.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Demand depends on corporate IT budgets for data-center and private-cloud infrastructure, which slow when companies cut capital spending, but a large share of revenue comes from renewing multi-year subscriptions already in place rather than winning entirely new business each quarter. The bigger swing factor recently has been customers leaving VMware after Broadcom's price increases, a one-time tailwind rather than a recurring driver.

Key risks

  • Reliance on channel distributors and OEM hardware partners — Most sales go through distributors and hardware partners like Dell and Lenovo rather than direct to customers, and Nutanix's software depends on those partners' hardware being available and willing to bundle it.
  • A one-time competitive tailwind may fade — Recent growth has been boosted by customers leaving VMware over Broadcom's pricing changes; once that migration wave runs its course, Nutanix must generate growth from new demand rather than a rival's mistake.
  • Corporate IT spending cycles — New infrastructure purchases slow when companies cut capital budgets, and a large upfront-license component of revenue makes results more sensitive to the timing of big deals than a purely ratable subscription model would be.
  • Competition from public cloud and hyperconverged rivals — Customers can choose to move workloads to a public cloud provider instead of running private infrastructure at all, and rivals including VMware, Microsoft and smaller hyperconverged vendors compete for the same budgets.

Customer concentration

Nutanix sells mostly through a small number of large distributors rather than directly; in prior fiscal years its two largest distributors together represented close to half of revenue, though the company has not disclosed an updated figure for fiscal 2025.

The case for

Buyers argue that the exodus from VMware after Broadcom's price increases gives Nutanix years of migration business still to capture, that its subscription model builds a growing base of recurring renewal revenue, and that private and hybrid cloud remain a durable alternative to renting everything from a public cloud provider.

The case against

Sellers fear that the VMware migration tailwind is temporary and growth slows once it fades, that heavy reliance on distributors and hardware partners limits Nutanix's control over its own sales motion, and that public cloud providers keep pulling workloads away from private infrastructure altogether.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 41.0Score: 73Market cap: $1.57T

Broadcom's VMware Cloud Foundation is the incumbent virtualization and private-cloud stack that Nutanix Cloud Infrastructure is sold to replace in the same enterprise data centers.

P/E: 26.6Score: 78Market cap: $310.96B

Dell sells the VxRail and PowerFlex hyperconverged systems to the same enterprise IT buyers, competing appliance-against-appliance even while it also ships servers certified for Nutanix software.

P/E: 29.2Score: 78Market cap: $3.93T

Microsoft competes both on-premises with Hyper-V and Azure Local and in the public cloud with Azure, for the workloads Nutanix wants to host on its hybrid platform.

P/E: 29.2Score: 67Market cap: $77.22B

HPE offers its own virtualization and hyperconverged portfolio, including SimpliVity and the GreenLake private-cloud subscriptions, to the same mid-market and enterprise accounts.

Red Hat, Inc.Not tracked

Red Hat, an IBM subsidiary, competes with OpenShift Virtualization and OpenStack as the open-source alternative for running virtual machines and containers on the customer's own hardware.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$2.85B

Trailing 12 months (through 7/31/2026)

Net Income

$1.51B

Trailing 12 months (through 7/31/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$841M

Total Equity

$703M

Total Liabilities

$4.37B

Current Ratio

1.80

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

4.42

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseFairly Valued

Fair Value

$89.69

Current Price

$70.58

Margin of Safety

+21.3%

Fair Value Range

$58.30 - $121.09

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$77.79
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$73.19
Earnings multiple (P/E):$150.90
Graham growth formula:$84.17
Earnings power value (EPV):$8.74
Justified P/B:$77.60
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:$93.28
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$52.55
Last Earnings Surprise:+21.24%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

13.65

ROE

214.5%

P/B Ratio

27.18

P/FCF

22.72

Gross Margin

86.8%

ROIC

6.4%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

6.4%

WACC

7.8%

ROIC − WACC

-1.4 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 10.13%
  • ROIC 6.4%
  • Gross margin 86.8%
  • P/FCF 22.72
  • Operating margin 9.6%
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 180.7%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 15.4%
  • Earnings surprise, average 17.7%
  • Share dilution 0.6%
  • Net margin trend 52.8% vs 7.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (5)

  • P/B ratio 27.18
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 0.61

Unavailable (3)

  • Dividend payout –
  • Interest coverage
  • PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

0.61

Moderate: some gap between profits and cash

Share Dilution

0.6%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Dr. Rajiv Ramaswami Ph.D.CEO & Director59
Ms. Rukmini SivaramanPrincipal Accounting Officer & CFO43
Mr. Brian Michael Martin J.D.Chief Legal Officer63
Mr. Tarkan ManerPresident & Chief Commercial Officer55
Ms. Mandy DhaliwalChief Marketing Officer-
Ms. Jennifer LepirdChief People Officer-
Mr. Dave GwynSenior Vice President of Worldwide Channels & Customer Success-
Mr. Inder SidhuChief Customer Experience Officer65
Mr. Sammy ZoghlamiSenior Vice President of Sales in EMEA-
Mr. Andrew BrindedChief Revenue Officer-

Audit Risk

4

Board Risk

2

Compensation Risk

3

Shareholder Rights Risk

2

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-09-18

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-05-29

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-07

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much NTNX moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 40% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
27.2%
Volatility 90d
32.3%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
0.73Correlation 0.20
Max drawdown (12m)
-52.5%
ATR (14d, % of price)
3.20%

Earnings reactions

How NTNX moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Nov 25, 2026 · In 32 days · Time not known

EPS estimate: 0.60Revenue estimate: $762M

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.9% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 7, down 5 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Aug 26, 2026After the close0.370.47+28.6% +8.9% +6.8% +2.2%
May 27, 2026After the close0.460.56+22.5% -1.2% +4.8% +13.9%
Feb 25, 2026After the close0.420.41-1.7% +9.7% +4.0% +4.9%
Nov 25, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-12.7% -17.7% -19.3%
Aug 27, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-8.2% -5.1% -1.3%
May 28, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+1.7% -3.8% -2.2%
Feb 26, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+15.2% +10.4% +11.2%
Nov 26, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+2.2% -7.8% -5.4%
Aug 28, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+16.6% +20.3% +20.2%
May 29, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-14.7% -23.1% -27.2%
Feb 28, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+5.2% +7.0% +9.3%
Nov 29, 2023After the closen/an/an/a+7.1% +3.7% +7.7%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on NTNX and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for NTNX.

  • 5/27/2026NEUTRAL
    Nutanix Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript

    Nutanix Inc. held its Q3 2026 earnings call on May 27, 2026. The transcript of this call is now available, providing detailed insights into the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook. Investors and analysts can review the discussion for a comprehensive understanding of Nutanix's operational status and market positioning. The availability of the full transcript allows for a deeper dive into management's commentary on revenue, profitability, and growth drivers.

  • 2/26/2026NEGATIVE
    These Analysts Cut Their Forecasts On Nutanix After Q2 Results

    Analysts have reportedly lowered their forecasts for Nutanix Inc. (NTNX) following the company's second-quarter results. While some investment banks, including Wells Fargo, Needham, and Morgan Stanley, maintained their previous ratings, the overarching market sentiment, as indicated by the news title, points to a reduction in expectations. This development suggests potential downward pressure on the stock's future performance, as expert projections often influence investor confidence and purchasing decisions. Investors should closely monitor the company's upcoming actions and market reactions, as a downgrade in forecasts can precede periods of volatility or corrections.