Natera, Inc. (NTRA)
OvervaluedFundamental
36
Price
$403.95
Market Cap
$56.71B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Natera runs genetic tests from a blood or tissue sample, sold to physicians and processed almost entirely in its own high-volume laboratory. Its main tests screen pregnancies for chromosomal problems and genetic disease risk, check whether a transplanted organ is being rejected, and, its fastest-growing use, watch cancer patients' blood for trace DNA that signals the disease has returned after treatment. Doctors order a test, Natera runs it and bills insurers or patients, and many patients need repeat testing over time.
How it makes money
Natera recognizes revenue when a test result is delivered, billing insurers, government payers or patients directly depending on coverage, and does not report a dollar breakdown between its women's health, oncology and organ health testing. Its oncology test, which monitors cancer patients over months or years for signs of recurrence, generates repeat orders per patient rather than a single sale, so revenue depends heavily on how much insurers actually pay per claim, not just on test volume.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · NarrowNatera holds a broad patent portfolio around its cell-free DNA testing technology and has built years of clinical validation data and physician relationships that a new entrant would need to replicate from scratch. That said, Exact Sciences, Guardant Health and large reference labs are investing heavily in competing tests, so the advantage is meaningful rather than exclusive.
What drives demand
DefensiveTesting for pregnancy risk, transplant rejection and cancer recurrence is driven by medical necessity rather than discretionary spending, so demand does not disappear in a downturn. Growth instead depends on how quickly physicians adopt each test, how many conditions get new reimbursement coverage, and how the addressable patient population expands — factors largely unrelated to the broader economy.
Key risks
- Reimbursement and payer risk — Insurers can deny coverage, change reimbursement rates, or demand repayment of amounts they later decide were billed incorrectly, and Natera does not have a specific billing code for every test it offers.
- Competition in liquid biopsy and prenatal testing — Exact Sciences, Guardant Health and other diagnostics companies are developing competing cancer-monitoring and prenatal tests, and a superior or cheaper rival test could erode Natera's share in any of its testing categories.
- Billing and litigation risk — Natera has faced regulatory scrutiny and litigation over its marketing and billing practices in the past; adverse rulings or settlements could impose costs or restrict how it sells and bills for tests.
- Regulation of laboratory-developed tests — Natera's tests are largely regulated as laboratory-developed tests rather than as approved medical devices; stricter FDA oversight of this category could raise costs or slow the launch of new tests.
Customer concentration
Tests are ordered by a large, fragmented base of individual physicians and clinics rather than a few large accounts, so no single customer represents a material share of revenue.
The case for
Buyers argue that Natera's oncology monitoring test is winning rapid physician adoption with each patient generating repeat orders over years, and that its proprietary technology and accumulating clinical evidence make it hard for competitors to dislodge across women's health, oncology and organ health testing at once.
The case against
Sellers fear that revenue still depends heavily on discretionary reimbursement decisions by insurers that can change with little notice, that well-funded rivals are chasing the same fast-growing cancer-monitoring market, and that the company's history of billing and marketing litigation could resurface as it scales.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
Both sell blood-based circulating-tumor-DNA tests to the same oncologists for detecting residual cancer after surgery, where Guardant Reveal competes head-to-head with Natera's Signatera.
Exact Sciences offers Haystack MRD alongside its colorectal screening franchise, chasing the same oncology customers and the same reimbursed test volumes as Signatera.
CareDx's AlloSure is the direct rival of Natera's Prospera in donor-derived cell-free DNA testing sold to US transplant centres monitoring organ rejection.
Labcorp competes for the same obstetric practices and payer contracts in non-invasive prenatal testing and carrier screening, where Natera's Panorama and Horizon are sold.
Myriad sells prenatal screening and hereditary cancer testing to the same women's-health clinicians Natera serves, and is moving into residual-disease monitoring as well.
This private California lab's UNITY prenatal screen takes share from Panorama in the same US obstetric market, and Natera names it among its main women's-health rivals.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$2.71B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$-192M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$109M
Total Equity
$1.71B
Total Liabilities
$686M
Current Ratio
3.00
Interest Coverage
75.89
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$228.74
Current Price
$403.95
Margin of Safety
-76.6%
Fair Value Range
$148.68 - $308.80
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-12.2%
P/B Ratio
31.97
P/FCF
691.56
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-10.9%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-10.9%
WACC
13.0%
ROIC − WACC
-23.8 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (9)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 42.02%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Revenue growth 5Y 42.6%
- Earnings surprise, average 24.5%
- Net margin trend -7.1% vs -12.9%
Failed (11)
- ROIC -10.9%
- P/FCF 691.56
- P/B ratio 31.97
- Operating margin -10.7%
- CapEx intensity
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE -11.7%
- Share dilution 10.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9
Unavailable (6)
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Dr. Matthew Rabinowitz Ph.D. | Co-Founder & Executive Chairman | 52 |
| Mr. Steven Leonard Chapman | CEO & Director | 46 |
| Mr. John Fesko | President & Chief Business Officer | 46 |
| Mr. Michael B. Brophy M.B.A. | Chief Financial Officer | 45 |
| Mr. Solomon Moshkevich M.B.A. | President of Clinical Diagnostics | 43 |
| Mr. Jonathan Sheena M.Eng. | Co-Founder & Director | 52 |
| Ms. Olesya A. Anisimova CPA | Chief Accounting Officer | - |
| Mr. Rishi Kacker | Chief Technology Officer | - |
| Mr. Eric A. Evans Ph.D. | Chief Scientific Officer | - |
| Mr. Daniel Rabinowitz L.L.M. | Secretary & Chief Legal Officer | 56 |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
8
Compensation Risk
6
Shareholder Rights Risk
8
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-27
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-07
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-06
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much NTRA moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 74% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 40.6%
- Volatility 90d
- 49.8%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.25Correlation 0.33
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -28.2%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 4.23%
Earnings reactions
How NTRA moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 5, 2026 · In 12 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: -0.28Revenue estimate: $707M
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 8.8% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | After the close | -0.50 | -0.47 | +6.7% | +20.9% | +21.4% | +17.1% |
| May 7, 2026 | After the close | -0.55 | -0.60 | -9.7% | -4.5% | -11.6% | -10.4% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | After the close | -0.52 | 0.36 | +169.1% | -2.4% | -3.7% | -8.8% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | After the close | -0.38 | -0.64 | -68.2% | -6.1% | +0.5% | +1.1% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +14.8% | +7.7% | +12.3% |
| May 8, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.3% | -6.5% | -8.1% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.1% | -0.7% | -9.6% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +15.1% | +19.1% | +20.0% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.0% | +6.4% | +13.5% |
| May 9, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +13.1% | +10.2% | +13.6% |
| Feb 28, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +12.0% | +13.0% | +17.9% |
| Nov 8, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +14.9% | +9.8% | +28.1% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on NTRA and what the price did next.
- 6/2/2026Positive$100 Invested In Natera 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
- +1 day
- +0.3%
- +3 days
- +4.1%
- 5/22/2026PositiveIf You Invested $1000 In Natera Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
- +1 day
- -1.8%
- +3 days
- +4.1%
- 4/14/2026PositiveNatera Positioned To Capture Growing $20 Billion MRD Opportunity-Analyst
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for NTRA.
- 6/2/2026POSITIVE$100 Invested In Natera 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
An investment of $100 in Natera Inc. (NTRA) a decade ago would have yielded significant returns, illustrating the company's substantial growth and market performance over the past ten years. While specific figures are not provided in the summary, the headline implies a strong positive trajectory for the stock. Natera, a leader in genetic testing and diagnostics, has likely benefited from advancements in its technology and increasing adoption in the healthcare sector. Investors tracking the biotechnology and diagnostics space should note Natera's historical performance as a potential indicator of future growth prospects, contingent on continued innovation and market demand.
- 5/22/2026POSITIVEIf You Invested $1000 In Natera Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in Natera Inc. (NTRA) a decade ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the company's significant growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in the prompt, the article's premise suggests a remarkable performance for shareholders. Natera, a leader in genetic testing, has likely benefited from increased adoption of its non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) and oncology diagnostics. Investors should note this historical performance as an indicator of potential future gains, contingent on continued innovation and market expansion in the rapidly evolving biotech sector.
- 4/14/2026POSITIVENatera Positioned To Capture Growing $20 Billion MRD Opportunity-Analyst
William Blair has initiated coverage on Natera Inc. with a positive outlook, highlighting the company's significant potential within the growing $20 billion MRD (minimal residual disease) market. The analyst firm cited Natera's strong competitive moat and a diversified product pipeline as key drivers supporting a robust long-term growth trajectory. This initiation of coverage by a reputable firm suggests increasing institutional interest and validation of Natera's business model and market position, potentially leading to increased investor confidence and stock appreciation.
- 2/27/2026NEUTRALNatera (NTRA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Natera Inc. held its Q4 2025 earnings call, as indicated by the transcript availability. However, specific details from the call's content are not yet available for analysis, leaving investors without immediate actionable insights. While an earnings call is a crucial event for corporate transparency, the absence of its content means no direct directional signals can be inferred for NTRA stock at this time. Market participants will be closely watching for the release of the full transcript and financial data to assess the company's performance and future outlook within the biotechnology and diagnostic testing sector.