Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)
UndervaluedFundamental
57
Price
$167.92
Market Cap
$30.29B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Northern Trust is a Chicago-based trust bank that keeps custody of, administers and manages money for large institutions and wealthy families, rather than making everyday consumer loans. Its Asset Servicing business holds, settles and reports on securities for pension funds, insurers, sovereign wealth funds and fund managers worldwide. Its Wealth Management business runs trusts, investment portfolios and private banking for high-net-worth individuals and family offices. The company earns its living as the record-keeper other institutions trust with their assets, not by taking large market bets of its own.
How it makes money
Most revenue is fees calculated as a small percentage of the assets Northern Trust holds, administers or manages — so revenue rises and falls with financial markets and with how much new money clients bring in, not with how many loans are made. A second stream is net interest income, earned by investing the cash balances clients park with the bank while their securities are held. Because the cost base — people, technology, compliance — is relatively fixed, revenue swings from market moves flow largely to profit.
Revenue by segment
Custody, fund administration and related services for pension funds, insurers and asset managers globally, priced as a share of assets under custody and administration.
Trust, investment management and private banking for high-net-worth individuals, families and family offices in the United States and abroad.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowMoving a pension fund's custody relationship to a new bank means re-plumbing reporting, compliance and reconciliation processes built over years, so clients rarely switch over price alone. But Northern Trust competes with BNY, State Street and JPMorgan, who offer the same lock-in to their own clients, so the advantage protects existing relationships more than it wins new ones.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalFee revenue is tied to the market value of the assets under administration, so a market downturn shrinks revenue even without a single client leaving. Wealth Management and Asset Servicing contracts are typically multi-year, which smooths some of that swing, but Northern Trust states its business is dependent on fee income that can be hurt by weak markets and shifting investment preferences.
Key risks
- Fee revenue depends on markets — The company states that a majority of its revenue is fee-based and can be hurt by market volatility, economic downturns, underperformance or shifts in investment preferences, none of which it controls.
- Interest rate sensitivity — Northern Trust earns net interest income on client cash balances, so changes in interest rates can move earnings negatively in either direction depending on how the balance sheet is positioned.
- Dependence on outside technology and networks — The company is highly dependent on information technology systems, many operated by third parties, and states that failures, disruptions or cyberattacks could severely affect operations and results.
- Extensive and evolving regulation — As a bank holding company, Northern Trust is subject to extensive supervision, and evolving data privacy and other rules can raise compliance costs and legal exposure over time.
The case for
Buyers argue that being the trusted record-keeper for pension funds and family offices creates relationships that rarely break, and that a recovery in markets and cross-border flows would lift fee revenue without requiring any change in the underlying business.
The case against
Sellers fear that fee income tracks markets the company cannot control, that scale rivals like BNY and State Street can undercut on price, and that a prolonged downturn or an interest rate move in the wrong direction would compress earnings at once.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$9.05B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$2.24B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$5.46B
Total Equity
$12.96B
Total Liabilities
$164.17B
Current Ratio
0.40
Interest Coverage
1.18
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$243.74
Current Price
$167.92
Margin of Safety
+31.1%
Fair Value Range
$158.43 - $329.05
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
18.94
ROE
13.4%
P/B Ratio
2.29
P/FCF
68.99
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
11.4%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (14)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 5.69%
- Price CAGR 6.93%
- P/B ratio 2.29
- Operating margin 33.3%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 17.1%
- Revenue growth 5Y 5.6%
- Earnings surprise, average 8.3%
- PEG ratio 1.45
- Share dilution -4.4%
- Net margin trend 24.8% vs 22.0%
Failed (8)
- P/FCF 68.99
- Debt/equity ratio
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Fairly Valued)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 0.24
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Unavailable (5)
- ROIC –
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Michael Gerard O'Grady | Chairman, President & CEO | 59 |
| Mr. Peter B. Cherecwich | Executive VP & COO | 60 |
| Mr. Thomas A. South | Executive VP & Chief Information Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Jason Jerrome Tyler | Executive VP & President of Wealth Management | 53 |
| Mr. David W. Fox Jr. | Executive VP & CFO | 66 |
| Mr. Jim Ward | Senior Investment Officer & Senior VP of Western Michigan Office | - |
| Mr. Ian Headon | Head of Depositary Regulatory & Technical Services | - |
| Ms. Alexandria Taylor | Executive VP & Chief Administrative Officer | 42 |
| Mr. Steve Carroll | SVP & Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Susan Cohen Levy J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 67 |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
2
Shareholder Rights Risk
3
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-24
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-30
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-21
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much NTRS moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 10% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 21.6%
- Volatility 90d
- 21.1%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.88Correlation 0.46
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -15.1%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.35%
Earnings reactions
How NTRS moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Jan 21, 2027 · In 89 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 3.05Revenue estimate: $2.3B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.2% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 1.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Before the open | 2.85 | 3.23 | +13.2% | +2.1% | +0.9% | n/a |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Before the open | 2.76 | 2.97 | +7.5% | -2.0% | -3.5% | -2.3% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Before the open | 2.37 | 2.71 | +14.3% | +1.9% | +8.0% | +5.5% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Before the open | 2.41 | 2.69 | +11.5% | +3.9% | +6.0% | +4.0% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Before the open | 2.29 | 2.29 | 0.0% | -3.1% | -2.4% | -0.9% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.4% | -1.8% | +4.0% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.6% | +3.0% | +6.6% |
| Jan 23, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.9% | +2.0% | +4.9% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.4% | +7.0% | +6.8% |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.4% | -5.1% | -4.7% |
| Apr 16, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.5% | -5.0% | -0.2% |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.5% | -2.4% | -2.5% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on NTRS and what the price did next.
- 3/2/2026PositiveNorthern Trust enters tokenized Treasurys fund market with new share class
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for NTRS.
- 3/2/2026POSITIVENorthern Trust enters tokenized Treasurys fund market with new share class
Northern Trust Corporation, the US-based asset management giant, has officially entered the burgeoning market for tokenized Treasurys funds by launching a new share class for its liquidity fund. This strategic move leverages a blockchain-enabled structure, positioning the company at the forefront of financial innovation. The on-chain US Treasurys exposure market is rapidly expanding, currently nearing an impressive $11 billion, underscoring a clear demand for advanced digital solutions. For investors, Northern Trust's initiative suggests potential for revenue growth and diversification for the company, strengthening its position in an evolving sector and offering new opportunities for accessing traditional financial instruments through modern infrastructure.