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Old National Bancorp (ONB)

NEUTRAL
Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalUnited States

Fundamental

59

Price

$25.66

Market Cap

$9.97B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Old National Bancorp is the holding company for Old National Bank, a regional bank operating 346 banking centers across the Midwest and Southeast United States. It earns money the way most commercial banks do: taking deposits, making commercial and consumer loans, and charging fees for wealth management, trust and capital-markets services. The bank traces its roots to 1834 and has grown mainly through acquisitions, most recently absorbing Bremer Financial Corporation in 2025.

How it makes money

Revenue is mostly net interest income: the spread between interest earned on loans and securities and interest paid on deposits and borrowings. Lending covers commercial, commercial real estate, residential and consumer loans. A smaller share comes from noninterest income — service charges on deposit accounts, and fees from wealth management, brokerage and capital-markets activities. Profitability rises when loan demand and interest margins are healthy and falls when credit losses or funding costs increase.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Old National's earnings depend on the health of the regional economy: unemployment, business confidence and interest rates directly affect loan demand, credit losses and deposit costs. The company states that unfavorable economic conditions have in the past reduced earnings by weakening borrowers' ability to repay, and that tariff and geopolitical uncertainty can add further volatility.

Key risks

  • Credit losses tied to economic conditions — Old National states that unfavorable or uncertain economic conditions — recession, unemployment, falling real estate values — have adversely affected, and could again affect, borrowers' ability to repay loans and the value of collateral securing them.
  • Competition from banks and fintechs — The company competes with banks nationally and locally, and increasingly with financial-technology firms that have obtained bank or industrial-loan charters, which it says makes it harder to compete effectively for clients and deposits.
  • Deposit funding and liquidity risk — Old National must maintain adequate deposits and wholesale funding to support lending. It warns that if it cannot maintain or grow deposits, it may face higher funding costs, and unrealized losses in its securities portfolio could affect liquidity.
  • Cybersecurity and third-party vendor risk — The bank relies on external vendors and technology systems it does not fully control; a security breach or vendor failure could disrupt operations, expose customer data, and harm results, the company states.
  • Capital and regulatory requirements — As a regulated bank holding company, Old National must meet capital adequacy rules set by federal regulators, who can restrict dividends or lending if requirements are not met, and standards can change over time.

The case for

Buyers argue that Old National's growth through acquisitions like Bremer has built a scale advantage across the Midwest and Southeast, that its funding base is diversified across many depositors, and that disciplined underwriting has kept credit costs manageable through past economic cycles.

The case against

Sellers fear that continued reliance on acquisitions carries integration risk, that competition from larger banks and fintech lenders pressures margins, and that a downturn in the regional economy or commercial real estate values could raise credit losses faster than reserves can absorb.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$2.74B

Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)

Net Income

$758M

Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$637M

Total Equity

$8.49B

Total Liabilities

$63.66B

Current Ratio

-

Interest Coverage

0.43

Debt/EBITDA

-

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Fairly Valued

Fair Value

$29.97

Current Price

$25.66

Margin of Safety

+14.4%

Fair Value Range

$22.75 - $37.20

Estimation Methods

Analyst Target:$29.82
DCF:$37.12
PE-based:$21.50
Graham Growth:$41.17
EPV:$24.57
Analyst Consensus:Buy (10B / 5H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+2.19%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

13.28

ROE

7.9%

P/B Ratio

1.17

P/FCF

13.67

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

-

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-

WACC

11.9%

ROIC − WACC

-

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (13)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • P/FCF 13.67
  • P/B Ratio 1.17
  • Operating Margin 34.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 10.5%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 24.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 67% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.92
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.03

Failed (10)

  • EPS CAGR 3.80%
  • Price CAGR 3.58%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg 2.2%
  • Share Dilution 16.5%
  • Net Margin Trend 27.7% vs 29.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

Unavailable (5)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA

Piotroski F-Score

3/9

Serious financial concerns

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.03

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

16.5%

Issuing new shares, diluting ownership

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. James C. Ryan IIICEO & Chairman53
Mr. Timothy M. Burke Jr.President & COO-
Mr. John Vincent Moran IVSenior Executive VP & CFO49
Ms. Kendra L. VanzoSenior EVP & Chief Administrative Officer58
Ms. Angela L. PutnamSenior VP & Chief Accounting Officer46
Mr. Matthew T. KeenChief Information Officer51
Lynell Durchholz CPASenior VP & Director of Investor Relations-
Mr. Nicholas J. ChulosExecutive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary65
Ms. Kathy A. SchoettlinChief Communications, Culture & Social Responsibility Officer54
Mr. James V. StadlerChief Marketing Officer61

Audit Risk

4

Board Risk

5

Compensation Risk

1

Shareholder Rights Risk

7

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for ONB, sourced from Markets Gazette.

No recent news for ONB.