O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)
OvervaluedFundamental
74
Price
$89.92
Market Cap
$72.22B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
O'Reilly Automotive sells replacement auto parts, tools, supplies and accessories through a large chain of retail stores backed by its own distribution network. It serves two very different customers with the same stores: everyday drivers fixing their own cars, and professional repair shops that need a part delivered within the hour to finish a job. Owning the distribution chain rather than relying on outside wholesalers is what lets it promise that speed.
How it makes money
Revenue is booked at the point of sale, whether over the counter to a walk-in customer or delivered to a professional repair shop's account. The DIY and professional halves of the business are roughly equal in size but behave differently: DIY sales follow store traffic and weather-driven repair needs, while professional sales depend on account relationships and, above all, on how fast O'Reilly can get the right part to a shop, which is what its hub-and-distribution-center network is built to deliver.
Revenue by segment
Parts and accessories sold over the counter to individual customers repairing their own vehicles.
Parts sold and delivered to professional repair shops and service technicians, O'Reilly's fastest-growing customer group.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowA dense network of stores layered on regional distribution centers lets O'Reilly promise same-day or next-day parts availability that a small independent parts store cannot match, and that scale is expensive and slow for a new entrant to replicate. The advantage is real but not exclusive: a handful of comparably sized national chains run the same playbook, so no single player owns a durable edge.
What drives demand
DefensiveCars break down regardless of the economy, and an aging vehicle fleet on the road tends to need more parts over time, which makes demand fairly resistant to downturns; some drivers even shift from buying a new car to repairing an older one when money is tight, which can help O'Reilly. Store growth and comparable sales still track broader consumer spending at the margin.
Key risks
- Macroeconomic sensitivity of customers — The company cites inflation, consumer debt levels and general economic conditions as risks: deteriorating conditions can reduce product demand, limit customer and supplier access to credit, and cause financial hardship across the business.
- Tariffs and trade policy — O'Reilly relies in part on imported parts, and new or increased tariffs raise costs and require further diversification of its supply chain, a process the company itself describes as ongoing rather than complete.
- Intense competition in a fragmented market — The automotive aftermarket remains highly fragmented, and O'Reilly competes against comparably resourced national retailers as well as many independent and online sellers, limiting its pricing power.
- Capital-intensive expansion — Growth depends on continuing to open new stores and expand the distribution network at a steady pace, which requires ongoing capital spending and execution; a slowdown in store openings would directly slow revenue growth.
The case for
Buyers argue that O'Reilly's distribution density gives it a durable speed advantage with professional customers, that an aging US vehicle fleet supports steady parts demand regardless of new-car sales, and that a long track record of disciplined store expansion and share buybacks has compounded returns for shareholders for decades.
The case against
Sellers fear that O'Reilly competes against equally well-capitalized national rivals with no clear way to widen the gap, that tariffs on imported parts squeeze margins the company cannot fully offset with price increases, and that continued growth increasingly depends on opening stores in markets it knows less well, including outside the United States.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
O'Reilly names AutoZone first among its competitors in its 10-K: the two run the largest US networks of auto parts stores and fight store-by-store for the same DIY motorists and the same professional repair shops.
Genuine Parts owns the NAPA network that O'Reilly's 10-K names as a competitor, and its distribution to independent garages goes head-to-head with O'Reilly's professional-installer business.
LKQ supplies aftermarket, recycled and specialty replacement parts to the same North American collision and mechanical repair shops that make up O'Reilly's professional customer base.
O'Reilly's 10-K names Amazon among the online retailers it competes with, because DIY customers can order the same parts and accessories online instead of walking into a store.
O'Reilly's 10-K lists Walmart among the mass merchandisers that take away sales of oil, batteries, wipers and other high-turnover maintenance items bought by DIY motorists.
Advance Auto Parts is the third national auto parts chain named in O'Reilly's 10-K, selling the same replacement parts from stores in the same American towns and to the same professional installers.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$18.57B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$2.65B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$1.59B
Total Equity
$-763M
Total Liabilities
$17.30B
Current Ratio
0.75
Interest Coverage
14.37
Debt/EBITDA
2.41
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$74.28
Current Price
$89.92
Margin of Safety
-21.1%
Fair Value Range
$50.64 - $97.91
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
28.55
ROE
-332.5%
P/B Ratio
-
P/FCF
33.74
Gross Margin
51.6%
ROIC
36.7%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
36.7%
WACC
7.3%
ROIC − WACC
+29.4 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (17)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 16.56%
- ROIC 36.7%
- Gross margin 51.6%
- Operating margin 19.6%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 423.4%
- Revenue growth 5Y 8.9%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.24
- Share dilution -3.0%
- Net margin trend 14.3% vs 14.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (5)
- EPS CAGR 4.18%
- P/FCF 33.74
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average -1.1%
Unavailable (5)
- P/B ratio –
- Dividend payout –
- Debt/equity ratio
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Gregory L. Henslee | Executive Chairman | 64 |
| Mr. Brad W. Beckham | Chief Executive Officer | 46 |
| Mr. David E. O'Reilly | Executive Vice Chairman | 75 |
| Mr. Brent G. Kirby | President | 56 |
| Mr. Jeremy Adam Fletcher CPA | Executive VP & CFO | 47 |
| Mr. Scott Richard Ross | Executive VP & Chief Information Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Jason Lee Tarrant | Executive Vice President of Store Operations & Sales | 44 |
| Ms. Tamara F. Conn | Senior VP of Legal & General Counsel | 54 |
| Ms. Shari Lynne Reaves | Senior Vice President of Human Resources & Training | 54 |
| Mr. Robert Allen Dumas | Senior Vice President of Eastern Store Operations & Sales | 51 |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
8
Compensation Risk
8
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-27
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-07
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-01
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much ORLY moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 30% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 22.5%
- Volatility 90d
- 28.6%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.03Correlation 0.01
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -18.7%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.04%
Earnings reactions
How ORLY moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 28, 2026 · In 4 days · After the close
EPS estimate: 0.93Revenue estimate: $5.0B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.6% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | After the close | 0.88 | 0.86 | -2.3% | -2.2% | -3.6% | +3.1% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | After the close | 0.71 | 0.72 | +1.7% | +4.7% | +8.4% | +3.4% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | After the close | 0.74 | 0.71 | -4.0% | -4.5% | -4.0% | -2.7% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | After the close | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.0% | -1.7% | -2.9% | -6.6% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.4% | +2.9% | +4.2% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.6% | -2.1% | +2.5% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.8% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.4% | 0.0% | -3.1% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0% | +4.0% | +7.2% |
| Apr 24, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -6.7% | -3.5% | -8.0% |
| Feb 7, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.3% | -4.3% | -1.7% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.3% | +5.3% | +8.1% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on ORLY and what the price did next.
- 3/5/2026PositiveCan O'Reilly Automotive Stock Beat the Market?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ORLY.
- 3/5/2026POSITIVECan O'Reilly Automotive Stock Beat the Market?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) has demonstrated exceptional performance over the past five years, with its shares more than tripling in value. This positive trend indicates strong growth and solid business management within the auto parts retail sector. For investors, this suggests a potential continuation of the upward trajectory, supported by consistent demand for vehicle maintenance and repair, making the stock an attractive candidate for a growth-oriented portfolio.