Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)
NEUTRALFundamental
65
Price
$125.34
Market Cap
$44.27B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Paychex runs payroll and handles human resources administration for small and mid-sized businesses in the United States, calculating pay, filing payroll taxes and managing benefits enrolment so a business owner does not have to. Alongside that core service it sells a professional employer organisation (PEO) offering, where Paychex becomes the legal co-employer of a client's staff, taking on compliance and offering access to larger-scale health and workers' compensation insurance plans.
How it makes money
Most revenue is recurring fees charged per employee per pay period for payroll processing and related HR services, so revenue grows both from adding new clients and from clients adding employees. The PEO business earns a fee built into the insurance premiums it administers, and the company also earns interest on client funds it holds briefly between collecting payroll taxes from a business and remitting them to tax authorities, so its results have some sensitivity to interest rates.
Revenue by segment
Core payroll processing, tax filing, HR administration and related software services sold to small and mid-sized businesses.
Professional employer organisation services, where Paychex co-employs a client's staff, plus workers' compensation and related insurance offerings.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowPayroll touches tax filings, benefits and compliance obligations that a small business owner does not want to risk getting wrong, so once a client is set up on Paychex, moving to a competitor is a real, disruptive project rather than a casual switch. The moat is narrow rather than wide because ADP, Gusto, Rippling and other well-capitalised rivals compete hard for new clients, especially smaller ones with simpler needs.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalExisting clients keep paying recurring fees regardless of the economic cycle as long as they stay in business and keep employees on payroll, which makes the base revenue fairly resilient. New client growth and total employee counts at existing clients do track the broader economy, however, since a slowdown that reduces small-business formation or hiring shows up directly in Paychex's growth rate.
Key risks
- Competition from established and newer HCM providers — ADP, Gusto, Rippling and other human capital management platforms compete aggressively for small and mid-sized business clients, pressuring pricing and making client retention harder to take for granted.
- Integration of the Paycor acquisition — Paychex closed its acquisition of Paycor during fiscal 2025; combining systems, products and client bases from a large deal carries execution risk and could distract from running the core business.
- Sensitivity of float income to interest rates — Interest earned on client funds held briefly before remittance is a real part of profitability; a period of falling interest rates would reduce this income without any change in the underlying payroll business.
- Cybersecurity and data protection — Paychex holds sensitive payroll, tax and personal data for millions of employees at its client companies; a data breach would damage trust in a business built on handling that information correctly.
- Regulatory and tax law changes — Payroll processing must keep pace with changing federal, state and local tax and employment rules; errors or delays in adapting to new requirements create compliance risk for both Paychex and its clients.
The case for
Buyers argue that payroll is a service clients rarely switch once set up, that the Paycor acquisition adds scale and a stronger position with larger small-business clients, and that combined Management Solutions and PEO revenue growth shows the business keeps taking share even against well-funded competitors.
The case against
Sellers worry that newer, cloud-native HCM platforms are winning smaller and younger businesses away from incumbents like Paychex, that integrating Paycor could prove more disruptive than expected, and that float income built into recent results would fade if interest rates fall meaningfully.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$6.30B
Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)
Net Income
$1.76B
Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$2.32B
Total Equity
$3.74B
Total Liabilities
$12.44B
Current Ratio
1.26
Interest Coverage
9.32
Debt/EBITDA
1.57
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$114.91
Current Price
$125.34
Margin of Safety
-9.1%
Fair Value Range
$87.00 - $142.81
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
25.77
ROE
47.1%
P/B Ratio
12.00
P/FCF
19.30
Gross Margin
73.4%
ROIC
21.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
21.3%
WACC
8.6%
ROIC − WACC
+12.6 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (19)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 6.55%
- Price CAGR 7.42%
- ROIC 21.2%
- Gross Margin 73.4%
- P/FCF 19.30
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 39.8%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 45.1%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 9.9%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.45
- Share Dilution -0.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (8)
- P/B Ratio 12.00
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Analyst Consensus 8% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg -0.2%
- PEG Ratio 2.42
- Net Margin Trend 27.9% vs 30.6%
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. John B. Gibson Jr. | President, CEO & Director | 58 |
| Mr. Robert Lewis Schrader | Senior VP & CFO | 52 |
| Mr. Adam Brooks Ante | Senior Vice President of HCM | 44 |
| Ms. Elizabeth Roaldsen | Senior Vice President of Operations & Customer Experience | 53 |
| Mr. Ryan Norman Bergstrom | Chief Product & Technology Officer | 46 |
| Ms. Prabha Sipi Bhandari | Senior VP, Chief Legal Officer, Chief Ethics Officer & Secretary | 54 |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
6
Compensation Risk
5
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for PAYX, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 3/25/2026NEUTRALPaychex Gears Up For Q3 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts
Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings on March 25th. Wall Street analysts are forecasting earnings per share of $1.67 and revenue of $1.78 billion. Ahead of the print, the stock experienced a 3.1% decline, closing at $90.61 on Tuesday. The upcoming earnings report will be crucial for investors to assess the company's performance against these expectations and gauge future growth prospects.
- 2/21/2026NEUTRALPaychex: A Strong Contender in the Payroll Processing Arena
The article dissects Paychex's business model and financial health, a leader in payroll processing. It questions whether the stock is a good investment, suggesting a fundamental analysis rather than a news with immediate market impact.
via Markets Gazette