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Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)

Overvalued
HealthcareMedical DevicesUnited States

Fundamental

70

Price

$324.39

Market Cap

$12.64B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Penumbra designs and manufactures devices that remove blood clots from inside the body without open surgery, threading a catheter through a blood vessel to pull the clot out or suck it away. Its products treat conditions such as ischemic stroke, pulmonary embolism and acute limb ischemia. A second, related line of products helps physicians access blood vessels and block off unwanted ones, such as before a tumor is removed. It sells to hospitals and clinics in over 100 countries.

How it makes money

Penumbra sells physical devices — catheters, aspiration systems and related disposables — to hospitals, which use them one procedure at a time. Because each stroke, clot or vascular case consumes a new device, revenue grows with the number of procedures performed rather than through subscriptions, and it depends on hospitals adopting Penumbra's technology over rival devices, on regulatory clearance for new products, and on reimbursement from insurers and public health systems that pay for the procedure.

Revenue by segment

Thrombectomy67.5%

Devices that remove blood clots to treat pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis, acute limb ischemia, ischemic stroke and coronary disease.

Embolization and Access32.5%

Devices that help physicians access blood vessels and selectively block off unwanted ones, used in a range of vascular procedures.

Competitive moat

Patents and licences · Narrow

Penumbra's devices are protected by patents on their specific mechanical and aspiration designs, and any new device must clear a lengthy regulatory approval process before it can be sold, which slows down copycats. That said, the field has several capable competitors building similar clot-removal technology, so the protection is real but not close to exclusive.

What drives demand

Defensive

Penumbra's core products treat medical emergencies such as stroke, pulmonary embolism and limb-threatening blood clots, procedures that hospitals perform regardless of the economic climate because delaying them risks death or permanent disability. Demand is therefore driven mainly by disease incidence, physician adoption of minimally invasive techniques, and hospital budgets for equipment, not by discretionary consumer spending.

Key risks

  • Lengthy and uncertain regulatory approval — The company operates under stringent domestic and foreign medical device regulations, and delays or failures in obtaining approval for new or modified products can push back launches and revenue.
  • Product liability litigation — As a maker of devices used in life-critical procedures, the company faces product liability claims and lawsuits seeking compensatory and punitive damages over alleged device failures or injuries.
  • Restrictions on off-label promotion — Regulators actively enforce rules against promoting a device for uses it was not approved for, and a violation can bring substantial monetary penalties or criminal prosecution.
  • Mandatory adverse event reporting — Medical device reporting rules require the company to notify regulators whenever it learns a device may have caused or contributed to a death or serious injury, which can trigger investigations or recalls.

The case for

Buyers argue that thrombectomy is still replacing older, less effective treatments for stroke and clot-related emergencies, that Penumbra's revenue keeps growing faster than the market, and that its second embolization and access line adds a further avenue for growth beyond its original thrombectomy business.

The case against

Sellers fear that well-funded competitors are developing similar clot-removal technology, that a single unfavorable regulatory finding or product-liability case could damage both revenue and reputation quickly, and that a business built on emergency procedures leaves little room to grow through pricing.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$1.50B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$161M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$175M

Total Equity

$1.43B

Total Liabilities

$399M

Current Ratio

5.75

Interest Coverage

144.33

Debt/EBITDA

1.03

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseOvervalued

Fair Value

$238.23

Current Price

$324.39

Margin of Safety

-36.2%

Fair Value Range

$154.85 - $321.61

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$362.54
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$107.54
Earnings multiple (P/E):$274.82
Graham growth formula:$66.26
Earnings power value (EPV):$45.05
Justified P/B:$53.87
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:$79.27
Mid-cycle earnings:$5.91
Revenue multiple:$143.70
Last Earnings Surprise:-26.59%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

79.70

ROE

12.4%

P/B Ratio

8.35

P/FCF

59.18

Gross Margin

67.8%

ROIC

8.5%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

8.5%

WACC

8.2%

ROIC − WACC

+0.3 pp

ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 33.58%
  • Price CAGR 17.48%
  • ROIC 8.5%
  • Gross margin 67.8%
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Operating margin 12.4%
  • Positive free cash flow
  • Current ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 11.1%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 20.2%
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.73
  • Share dilution 1.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

Failed (7)

  • P/FCF 59.18
  • P/B ratio 8.35
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings surprise, average -10.5%
  • Net margin trend 10.7% vs 11.5%

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend payout –
  • PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

8/9

Strong financial health

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

1.73

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

1.0%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Adam Elsesser J.D.Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO63
Ms. Shruthi NarayanPresident40
Dr. Arani Bose M.D.Co-Founder & Director63
Ms. Maggie S. YuenChief Financial Officer53
Mr. Lambert ShiuChief Accounting Officer45
Ms. Johanna Roberts J.D.Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary53
Mr. Ben SorciExecutive Vice President of Operations-
Ms. Jee Hamlyn-HarrisInvestor Relations Officer-
Mr. Ben TompkinsExecutive Vice President of Development & Compliance-
Mr. Jason Richard MillsExecutive Vice President of Strategy-

Audit Risk

7

Board Risk

5

Compensation Risk

7

Shareholder Rights Risk

4

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-25

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-30

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-07-30

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much PEN moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityLow

More volatile than 0% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
5.0%
Volatility 90d
6.1%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
0.03Correlation 0.02
Max drawdown (12m)
-12.2%
ATR (14d, % of price)
0.59%

Earnings reactions

How PEN moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Nov 4, 2026 · In 11 days · Time not known

EPS estimate: 1.18Revenue estimate: $400M

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 5.2% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Jul 30, 2026After the close1.200.88-26.6% +1.0% +0.4% +1.6%
May 6, 2026After the close1.090.82-24.5% -0.1% +0.1% -0.5%
Feb 25, 2026After the close1.121.18+5.0% +0.3% +1.0% +0.3%
Nov 5, 2025After the close0.930.97+4.2% +15.2% +17.3% +24.3%
Jul 29, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+8.7% +11.9% +5.7%
Apr 23, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+7.6% +7.0% +5.0%
Feb 18, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+9.2% +12.0% +3.9%
Oct 30, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-1.8% +8.3% +10.6%
Jul 30, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-12.2% -3.5% -1.0%
May 7, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-1.9% -3.3% -0.6%
Feb 22, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-8.9% -9.3% -10.6%
Nov 2, 2023After the closen/an/an/a+0.1% -0.2% -7.3%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on PEN and what the price did next.

No positive or negative news on PEN has been archived yet.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for PEN.

  • 17d agoNEUTRAL
    Peru Unexpectedly Holds Rate as Inflation Jump Seen as Temporary

    Peru's central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.75% for the thirteenth consecutive month, defying market expectations for a potential cut. Policymakers cited a recent uptick in inflation, which rose to 4.1% in September, as a temporary phenomenon. They anticipate inflation will revert towards the target range of 1%-3% in the coming months. This decision suggests a cautious stance, prioritizing price stability over immediate economic stimulus, which could influence investor sentiment regarding Peruvian fixed income and currency.

  • 2/25/2026NEUTRAL
    Penumbra Q4 Earnings Assessment

    The financial community is keenly awaiting the assessment of Penumbra Inc.'s fourth-quarter earnings. While specific details from this analysis have not yet been released, investor attention remains high, given the critical importance of such reports in gauging the medical device company's financial health and future prospects. Q4 performance is particularly crucial for Penumbra, operating in a competitive medical technology market where innovation and clinical outcomes drive growth. Analysts will be closely scrutinizing key metrics such as revenue figures, profit margins, and forward-looking guidance for the upcoming year, seeking indications of the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory and navigate industry challenges. The full disclosure of these results will provide clear direction for the stock.