The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM)
Fair ValueFundamental
54
Price
$202.28
Market Cap
$1.88B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Boston Beer makes and sells alcohol beverages under a portfolio of brands built around flavor rather than one core beer style: Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, Dogfish Head and newer entries like Sun Cruiser. It brews some of its own volume at four company-owned breweries and contracts the rest out to third parties. Sales go almost entirely through independent beer wholesalers, who then sell into bars, restaurants and retailers across the United States and a handful of export markets.
How it makes money
Revenue comes from selling finished cans, bottles and kegs to distributors, who resell to retailers and bars; Boston Beer books the sale on shipment, not on what the end consumer eventually buys. Because volume has been shrinking across most brands, growth now depends on premium pricing and shifting the mix toward faster-growing lines like Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea Extreme rather than on selling more total gallons. Contract-brewing shortfall fees can eat into margin when actual volume misses committed minimums.
Competitive moat
Brand · NarrowTwisted Tea has been the largest-selling flavored malt beverage brand in the U.S. since 2022, and Boston Beer ranks as the second-largest supplier in the 'Beyond Beer' category with about 20% share. Those positions took decades and heavy marketing spend to build, but the moat is narrow: rivals with far deeper pockets, from AB InBev to Coca-Cola-backed brands, compete hard for the same shelf space.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalDemand tracks discretionary consumer spending on alcohol more than the broader economy — sales hold up reasonably well in downturns but face growing pressure from a structural shift toward moderation and non-alcoholic alternatives among younger drinkers. The U.S. beer market overall declined about 4% by volume in 2025, a headwind that predates any recession.
Key risks
- Substantial competition — The company competes against much larger brewers such as AB InBev and Molson Coors, growing imported beer brands, and non-alcoholic giants like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo that have entered the alcohol category through licensing deals, all fighting for the same shelf and tap space.
- Changing consumer attitudes — The company states that younger generations are embracing moderation or abstinence, that U.S. beer volumes fell about 4% in 2025, and that further declines in alcohol consumption could materially hurt results.
- Dependence on distributors — About 94% of Boston Beer's U.S. volume is sold through independent distributors it does not control, and changes in ownership or support within that network could weaken sales without a direct fix available to the company.
- Contract-production shortfall fees — The company has committed to minimum annual volumes with third-party producers such as City Brewing and expects to fall short of those commitments, incurring shortfall fees of about $19 million in future years on top of $21.4 million already recorded in 2025.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 7% of revenue
No single distributor is disclosed as a concentration risk: the largest individual distributor accounted for about 3% of gross sales in 2025, and the top three together for about 7%, reflecting a network of over 300 wholesalers.
The case for
Buyers argue that Boston Beer's move toward higher-margin innovations like Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea Extreme, combined with supply-chain efficiency gains that have cut inventory write-offs since 2023, position the company to grow earnings even as overall beer volumes shrink.
The case against
Sellers fear that a structural decline in U.S. alcohol consumption among younger drinkers will keep pressuring volumes across nearly every brand in the portfolio, and that shortfall fees on contract-production commitments will keep weighing on margins as demand undershoots the levels the company planned for.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$1.93B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Net Income
$-70M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$216M
Total Equity
$846M
Total Liabilities
$347M
Current Ratio
1.05
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.13
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$194.31
Current Price
$202.28
Margin of Safety
-4.1%
Fair Value Range
$184.59 - $204.02
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
18.28
ROE
12.8%
P/B Ratio
2.29
P/FCF
7.93
Gross Margin
48.9%
ROIC
-9.4%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-9.4%
WACC
9.0%
ROIC − WACC
-18.4 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (11)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 9.94%
- Gross margin 48.9%
- P/FCF 7.93
- P/B ratio 2.29
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Share dilution -7.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (11)
- Price CAGR -0.13%
- ROIC -9.4%
- Operating margin -4.7%
- CapEx intensity
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE -8.9%
- Revenue growth 5Y 2.5%
- Earnings surprise, average 0.3%
- Net margin trend -3.6% vs 3.9%
Unavailable (5)
- Dividend payout –
- Interest coverage
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. C. James Koch J.D. | Founder, Chairman, President & CEO | 75 |
| Mr. Samuel A. Calagione III | Founder, Brewer of Dogfish Head & Director | 55 |
| Ms. Laura J. Boynton | Chief People Officer | 49 |
| Ms. Lesya Lysyj | Advisor | 62 |
| Mr. Paul Weaver | Director & Head of Cannabis | - |
| Mr. Philip E. Savastano | Chief Supply Chain Officer | - |
| Mr. Michael G. Andrews | Associate General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
Audit Risk
8
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-24
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-22
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-22
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much SAM moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 52% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 28.5%
- Volatility 90d
- 37.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- -0.22Correlation -0.08
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -38.1%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.03%
Earnings reactions
How SAM moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.8% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 7, down 5 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | After the close | 4.21 | 4.37 | +3.8% | +0.2% | +3.4% | n/a |
| Jul 23, 2026 | After the close | 4.87 | 3.65 | -25.1% | -1.5% | +3.2% | +6.2% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | After the close | 1.99 | 1.64 | -17.5% | -10.3% | -9.6% | -14.4% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | After the close | -2.61 | -2.12 | +18.8% | -8.7% | -4.3% | -0.5% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | After the close | 3.40 | 4.25 | +25.1% | +6.0% | +5.5% | -6.2% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +10.4% | +6.5% | +2.6% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.4% | +2.3% | +1.0% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.3% | +3.0% | +2.0% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.6% | -2.0% | -3.6% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.1% | +7.5% | +2.4% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +9.7% | -1.4% | -2.9% |
| Feb 27, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -11.8% | -15.8% | -19.7% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on SAM and what the price did next.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for SAM.
- 2/24/2026NEUTRALBoston Beer Co Earnings Review: Q4 Summary
Boston Beer Co has announced its Q4 earnings review, but the specific details of the report have not been made available at this time. Without key data such as revenues, earnings per share, or future guidance, investors are unable to fully assess the company's performance or its potential impact on the stock price. The market awaits more comprehensive information to form an informed judgment on the financial health and growth prospects of the craft beer and alcoholic beverage producer, leaving the stock in a state of uncertainty.