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The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM)

NEUTRAL
Consumer DefensiveBeverages - BrewersUnited States

Fundamental

49

Price

$187.36

Market Cap

$1.94B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Boston Beer makes and sells alcohol beverages under a portfolio of brands built around flavor rather than one core beer style: Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, Dogfish Head and newer entries like Sun Cruiser. It brews some of its own volume at four company-owned breweries and contracts the rest out to third parties. Sales go almost entirely through independent beer wholesalers, who then sell into bars, restaurants and retailers across the United States and a handful of export markets.

How it makes money

Revenue comes from selling finished cans, bottles and kegs to distributors, who resell to retailers and bars; Boston Beer books the sale on shipment, not on what the end consumer eventually buys. Because volume has been shrinking across most brands, growth now depends on premium pricing and shifting the mix toward faster-growing lines like Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea Extreme rather than on selling more total gallons. Contract-brewing shortfall fees can eat into margin when actual volume misses committed minimums.

Competitive moat

Brand · Narrow

Twisted Tea has been the largest-selling flavored malt beverage brand in the U.S. since 2022, and Boston Beer ranks as the second-largest supplier in the 'Beyond Beer' category with about 20% share. Those positions took decades and heavy marketing spend to build, but the moat is narrow: rivals with far deeper pockets, from AB InBev to Coca-Cola-backed brands, compete hard for the same shelf space.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Demand tracks discretionary consumer spending on alcohol more than the broader economy — sales hold up reasonably well in downturns but face growing pressure from a structural shift toward moderation and non-alcoholic alternatives among younger drinkers. The U.S. beer market overall declined about 4% by volume in 2025, a headwind that predates any recession.

Key risks

  • Substantial competition — The company competes against much larger brewers such as AB InBev and Molson Coors, growing imported beer brands, and non-alcoholic giants like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo that have entered the alcohol category through licensing deals, all fighting for the same shelf and tap space.
  • Changing consumer attitudes — The company states that younger generations are embracing moderation or abstinence, that U.S. beer volumes fell about 4% in 2025, and that further declines in alcohol consumption could materially hurt results.
  • Dependence on distributors — About 94% of Boston Beer's U.S. volume is sold through independent distributors it does not control, and changes in ownership or support within that network could weaken sales without a direct fix available to the company.
  • Contract-production shortfall fees — The company has committed to minimum annual volumes with third-party producers such as City Brewing and expects to fall short of those commitments, incurring shortfall fees of about $19 million in future years on top of $21.4 million already recorded in 2025.

Customer concentration

Top customers account for 7% of revenue

No single distributor is disclosed as a concentration risk: the largest individual distributor accounted for about 3% of gross sales in 2025, and the top three together for about 7%, reflecting a network of over 300 wholesalers.

The case for

Buyers argue that Boston Beer's move toward higher-margin innovations like Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea Extreme, combined with supply-chain efficiency gains that have cut inventory write-offs since 2023, position the company to grow earnings even as overall beer volumes shrink.

The case against

Sellers fear that a structural decline in U.S. alcohol consumption among younger drinkers will keep pressuring volumes across nearly every brand in the portfolio, and that shortfall fees on contract-production commitments will keep weighing on margins as demand undershoots the levels the company planned for.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$1.93B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)

Net Income

$-70M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$216M

Total Equity

$846M

Total Liabilities

$347M

Current Ratio

1.05

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

0.13

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Fairly Valued

Fair Value

$199.85

Current Price

$187.36

Margin of Safety

+6.2%

Fair Value Range

$189.85 - $209.84

Estimation Methods

Analyst Target:$199.85
DCF:-
PE-based:-
Graham Growth:-
EPV:-
Analyst Consensus:Hold (1B / 15H / 7S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-25.12%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

19.08

ROE

12.8%

P/B Ratio

2.21

P/FCF

7.67

Gross Margin

48.9%

ROIC

-9.4%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-9.4%

WACC

8.9%

ROIC − WACC

-18.4 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (11)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 9.94%
  • Gross Margin 48.9%
  • P/FCF 7.67
  • P/B Ratio 2.21
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Share Dilution -7.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (12)

  • Price CAGR 0.91%
  • ROIC -9.4%
  • Operating Margin -4.7%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE -8.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 2.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 4% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 0.3%
  • Net Margin Trend -3.6% vs 3.9%

Unavailable (5)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

-

Low quality: investigate accounting

Share Dilution

-7.0%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. C. James Koch J.D.Founder, Chairman, President & CEO75
Mr. Diego ReynosoCFO & Treasurer49
Mr. Philip A. HodgesChief Operating Officer59
Ms. Tara L. HeathChief Legal Officer & General Counsel50
Mr. Michael R. CrowleyChief Sales Officer55
Mr. Samuel A. Calagione IIIFounder, Brewer of Dogfish Head & Director55
Mr. Matthew Donal MurphyChief Accounting Officer & VP of Finance56
Ms. Laura J. BoyntonChief People Officer49
Ms. Lesya LysyjAdvisor62
Mr. Paul WeaverDirector & Head of Cannabis-

Audit Risk

8

Board Risk

9

Compensation Risk

10

Shareholder Rights Risk

10

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for SAM, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 2/24/2026NEUTRAL
    Boston Beer Co Earnings Review: Q4 Summary

    Boston Beer Co has announced its Q4 earnings review, but the specific details of the report have not been made available at this time. Without key data such as revenues, earnings per share, or future guidance, investors are unable to fully assess the company's performance or its potential impact on the stock price. The market awaits more comprehensive information to form an informed judgment on the financial health and growth prospects of the craft beer and alcoholic beverage producer, leaving the stock in a state of uncertainty.

via Markets Gazette