Summerset Group Holdings Limited (SMGRF)
NEUTRALFundamental
48
Price
$7.77
Market Cap
$1.89B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Summerset builds and operates retirement villages in New Zealand and Australia, where it sells residents the right to occupy a unit for life in exchange for an upfront payment, then provides care services — from independent living to full nursing care — as residents age. It is both a developer, building new villages on land it buys, and a long-term operator running dining, care and community services for thousands of residents already living in its villages.
How it makes money
Revenue is a mix of several streams rather than a single product sale: weekly fees residents pay for care and village services, a share of the gain when a departing resident's occupation right is resold to a new one, and government subsidies for eligible aged-care residents that make up a majority of the care revenue. Because these streams are recognized differently — some upfront, some accrued over years of occupancy — reported revenue does not map cleanly onto new-unit sales in any given year.
What drives demand
DefensiveDemand is driven by an aging population choosing to move into a retirement village, a decision that is only loosely tied to the economic cycle since it follows health and life-stage needs more than discretionary spending power. It is not fully immune to downturns, though, since a resident's ability to buy an occupation right often depends on selling their existing home first.
The case for
Buyers argue that an aging population in New Zealand and Australia gives Summerset a decades-long demand tailwind, that owning the land bank lets it capture development margin most competitors cannot, and that record deliveries and underlying profit in fiscal 2025 show the model scaling as intended.
The case against
Sellers fear that resales gains depend on house-price and property-market conditions outside the company's control, that a housing downturn could slow the pace at which prospective residents can sell their own homes to buy in, and that a large land and development bank ties up capital for years before it converts into cash.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$363M
Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics
Net Income
$262M
Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics
Free Cash Flow
$-74M
Total Equity
$3.34B
Total Liabilities
$1.99B
Current Ratio
0.13
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
65.83
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$10.48
Current Price
$7.77
Margin of Safety
+25.9%
Fair Value Range
$8.18 - $12.78
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
7.23
ROE
8.3%
P/B Ratio
0.57
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
90.0%
ROIC
0.1%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
0.1%
WACC
5.4%
ROIC − WACC
-5.3 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (9)
- Gross Margin 90.0%
- P/B Ratio 0.57
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 75.0%
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 8.0%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 16.0%
- Analyst Consensus 80% Buy
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.11
Failed (9)
- Price CAGR 4.65%
- ROIC 0.1%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- PEG Ratio 6.00
- Net Margin Trend 71.8% vs 106.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Unavailable (9)
- EPS data insufficient
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Earnings Surprise (Finnhub)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Scott Grady Scoullar BCA, C.A., FCPA | Chief Executive Officer | - |
| Mr. John O'Sullivan | Founder | - |
| Ms. Margaret Warrington | Chief Financial Officer | - |
| Ms. Robyn Heyman | Head of Legal & Company Secretary | - |
| Mr. David Martin | Chief Sales & Marketing Transformation Lead | - |
| Ms. Chris Lokum BMS | Chief People Officer | - |
| Mr. Dean Tallentire B.Sc. | Chief Construction Officer of NZ | - |
| Ms. Eleanor Young B.Sc. | Chief Operating Officer of NZ | - |
| Mr. Aaron Smail B.E., BBS | Chief Development Officer of NZ | - |
| Mr. Stewart Scott | Chief Operating Officer of Australia | - |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
6
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for SMGRF, sourced from Markets Gazette.