Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Fair ValueFundamental
49
Price
$372.22
Market Cap
$1.40T
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Tesla designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles directly to buyers, without a franchised dealer network, and builds its own battery cells at vertically integrated factories in the US, China and Germany. Alongside cars it sells energy-storage batteries and solar equipment to homes and utilities, and is pushing into new, unproven lines: paid driving-assistance software, a robotaxi service, and Optimus, a humanoid robot still in early development.
How it makes money
Tesla earns most of its money selling vehicles outright, recognizing revenue on delivery rather than through a dealer network, which keeps a larger slice of the sale price but pushes service, financing and inventory risk onto the company itself. It also sells high-margin regulatory emissions credits to other automakers who need them to meet clean-air rules. A growing services line covers Supercharging, insurance and paid driving-assistance software subscriptions.
Revenue by segment
Sales and leases of electric vehicles, plus automotive regulatory credits sold to other manufacturers.
Megapack and Powerwall battery systems sold to utilities and homeowners, plus solar panels and roofing.
Used-car sales, paid Supercharging, non-warranty maintenance, insurance and parts and merchandise sales.
Competitive moat
Cost advantage · NarrowTesla builds its own battery cells and runs vertically integrated Gigafactories, which has kept its unit production costs below most legacy automakers and funded the largest fast-charging network in North America. But Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have matched or undercut Tesla's costs, so the advantage is narrowing rather than widening as competition intensifies.
What drives demand
CyclicalVehicle purchases are large, discretionary, and sensitive to interest rates, financing costs and government incentives, all of which can shift abruptly with policy changes. Demand has swung sharply in several markets as EV tax credits and subsidies were reduced or removed, showing how much of Tesla's volume depends on conditions outside its control.
Key risks
- Intensifying EV competition — Chinese manufacturers and legacy automakers are launching competitive electric vehicles at lower prices, eroding the cost and technology lead Tesla built in its early years.
- Supplier and manufacturing dependence — Tesla relies on suppliers, including single-source ones, for critical components; a shortage or disruption at any of them can directly delay production and deliveries.
- Dependence on Elon Musk — Tesla's strategy, product direction and public profile are closely tied to Elon Musk, who also runs several other companies; his divided attention or departure would be a material loss for Tesla.
- Unproven new product lines — Robotaxi services, full self-driving software and the Optimus robot are still in early, nascent stages, face significant technical and regulatory hurdles, and compete against well-funded rivals.
The case for
Buyers argue that Tesla's lead in vertical integration and self-driving software will eventually translate into higher-margin businesses such as robotaxis and robots, and that its Supercharger network and brand keep customers loyal even as EV competition grows.
The case against
Sellers fear that Chinese and legacy competitors are closing the EV cost gap faster than the new robotaxi and robot businesses can generate revenue, and that much of the company's valuation rests on projects that remain unproven.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$103.62B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$3.80B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$6.22B
Total Equity
$82.14B
Total Liabilities
$54.94B
Current Ratio
1.94
Interest Coverage
13.09
Debt/EBITDA
1.50
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$397.83
Current Price
$372.22
Margin of Safety
+6.4%
Fair Value Range
$377.94 - $417.72
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
344.65
ROE
4.6%
P/B Ratio
16.93
P/FCF
255.14
Gross Margin
18.9%
ROIC
3.0%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
3.0%
WACC
14.0%
ROIC − WACC
-11.0 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (13)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 38.88%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Revenue growth 5Y 24.6%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 4.91
- Share dilution 1.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (12)
- ROIC 3.1%
- Gross margin 18.9%
- P/FCF 255.14
- P/B ratio 16.93
- Operating margin 4.2%
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE 4.6%
- Earnings surprise, average -7.0%
- PEG ratio 9.61
- Net margin trend 3.7% vs 6.3%
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend payout –
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Elon R. Musk | Co-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director | 54 |
| Mr. Vaibhav Taneja | Chief Financial Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Xiaotong Zhu | Senior Vice President of APAC & Global Vehicle Manufacturing | 45 |
| Travis Axelrod | Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Brandon Ehrhart | General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
| Mr. Franz von Holzhausen | Chief Designer | - |
| Ms. Roxanne Inskip-Kaye | Head of Operations - Electric Vehicle Business | - |
| Mr. John Walker | Vice President of Sales - North America | 62 |
| Mr. Rodney D. Westmoreland Jr. | Director of Construction Management | - |
| Mr. Lars Moravy | Vice President of Vehicle Engineering | - |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
10
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
9
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-01-29
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-22
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-21
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much TSLA moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 75% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 32.5%
- Volatility 90d
- 51.1%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 2.22Correlation 0.63
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -39.1%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.38%
Earnings reactions
How TSLA moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.8% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | After the close | 0.45 | 0.48 | +6.3% | -3.2% | -3.1% | n/a |
| Jul 22, 2026 | After the close | 0.52 | 0.33 | -36.4% | -8.8% | -14.5% | -20.2% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | After the close | 0.38 | 0.41 | +8.7% | -3.2% | -3.6% | -3.8% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | After the close | 0.45 | 0.50 | +10.1% | +1.5% | -3.5% | -5.9% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | After the close | 0.56 | 0.50 | -10.5% | -4.3% | +2.3% | +5.1% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -6.8% | -8.2% | -4.1% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.1% | +5.4% | +22.7% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.6% | +2.9% | -2.8% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +14.5% | +21.9% | +20.5% |
| Jul 23, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -8.5% | -12.3% | -9.6% |
| Apr 23, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +12.6% | +12.1% | +26.7% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -8.7% | -12.1% | -9.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on TSLA and what the price did next.
- 10/22/2026NegativeA Tesla-SpaceX Merger Doesn’t Add Up
- +1 day
- pending
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/22/2026PositiveU.S. Earnings Season Heats Up as MEXC TSLA Stock Futures Weekly Volume Jumps 101%
- +1 day
- -1.9%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/21/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -1.9%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/21/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -1.9%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/20/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +2.9%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/16/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -1.0%
- +3 days
- +3.5%
- 10/15/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/9/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/7/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/2/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for TSLA.
- 2d agoNEGATIVEA Tesla-SpaceX Merger Doesn’t Add Up
Bloomberg Opinion columnist Liam Denning argues that a proposed merger between Tesla and SpaceX would be financially illogical, citing recent earnings reports. The analysis suggests that the distinct financial profiles and operational needs of each company make consolidation impractical. Investors may view this potential merger negatively, as it could dilute Tesla's focus and introduce significant financial complexities, potentially impacting its stock valuation and future growth prospects.
- 2d agoNEUTRALTre sfide chiave per la fusione Tesla–SpaceX
A potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX, spearheaded by Elon Musk, faces significant hurdles according to former Tesla advisor Steve Westly. Key challenges include valuation discrepancies, regulatory approval processes, and Tesla's operational landscape in China. Both companies have formed special committees to explore a potential deal, signaling movement towards a combination. However, Musk has cautioned that a merger is not guaranteed. For investors, the terms of any proposed transaction will be critical, alongside the strategic industrial logic, as valuation remains a primary obstacle to a completed deal.
- 2d agoPOSITIVEU.S. Earnings Season Heats Up as MEXC TSLA Stock Futures Weekly Volume Jumps 101%
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) saw a significant surge in trading volume for its stock futures on MEXC, with weekly volume jumping 101% to approximately 137 million USDT in the week of October 12-18. This spike preceded the company's unveiling of its next-generation Roadster on October 15 and its subsequent quarterly earnings announcement on October 21. Tesla reported third-quarter 2026 results with a gross margin of 19.6% and adjusted earnings per share that exceeded market expectations. The increased trading activity and positive earnings report suggest growing investor interest and confidence in Tesla's performance and future prospects.