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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Fair Value
Consumer CyclicalAuto ManufacturersUnited States

Fundamental

49

Price

$372.22

Market Cap

$1.40T

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Tesla designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles directly to buyers, without a franchised dealer network, and builds its own battery cells at vertically integrated factories in the US, China and Germany. Alongside cars it sells energy-storage batteries and solar equipment to homes and utilities, and is pushing into new, unproven lines: paid driving-assistance software, a robotaxi service, and Optimus, a humanoid robot still in early development.

How it makes money

Tesla earns most of its money selling vehicles outright, recognizing revenue on delivery rather than through a dealer network, which keeps a larger slice of the sale price but pushes service, financing and inventory risk onto the company itself. It also sells high-margin regulatory emissions credits to other automakers who need them to meet clean-air rules. A growing services line covers Supercharging, insurance and paid driving-assistance software subscriptions.

Revenue by segment

Automotive73.32%

Sales and leases of electric vehicles, plus automotive regulatory credits sold to other manufacturers.

Energy Generation and Storage13.47%

Megapack and Powerwall battery systems sold to utilities and homeowners, plus solar panels and roofing.

Services and Other13.21%

Used-car sales, paid Supercharging, non-warranty maintenance, insurance and parts and merchandise sales.

Competitive moat

Cost advantage · Narrow

Tesla builds its own battery cells and runs vertically integrated Gigafactories, which has kept its unit production costs below most legacy automakers and funded the largest fast-charging network in North America. But Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have matched or undercut Tesla's costs, so the advantage is narrowing rather than widening as competition intensifies.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Vehicle purchases are large, discretionary, and sensitive to interest rates, financing costs and government incentives, all of which can shift abruptly with policy changes. Demand has swung sharply in several markets as EV tax credits and subsidies were reduced or removed, showing how much of Tesla's volume depends on conditions outside its control.

Key risks

  • Intensifying EV competition — Chinese manufacturers and legacy automakers are launching competitive electric vehicles at lower prices, eroding the cost and technology lead Tesla built in its early years.
  • Supplier and manufacturing dependence — Tesla relies on suppliers, including single-source ones, for critical components; a shortage or disruption at any of them can directly delay production and deliveries.
  • Dependence on Elon Musk — Tesla's strategy, product direction and public profile are closely tied to Elon Musk, who also runs several other companies; his divided attention or departure would be a material loss for Tesla.
  • Unproven new product lines — Robotaxi services, full self-driving software and the Optimus robot are still in early, nascent stages, face significant technical and regulatory hurdles, and compete against well-funded rivals.

The case for

Buyers argue that Tesla's lead in vertical integration and self-driving software will eventually translate into higher-margin businesses such as robotaxis and robots, and that its Supercharger network and brand keep customers loyal even as EV competition grows.

The case against

Sellers fear that Chinese and legacy competitors are closing the EV cost gap faster than the new robotaxi and robot businesses can generate revenue, and that much of the company's valuation rests on projects that remain unproven.

Segment figures from fiscal year 2025Sources: Tesla, Inc. — Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$103.62B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$3.80B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$6.22B

Total Equity

$82.14B

Total Liabilities

$54.94B

Current Ratio

1.94

Interest Coverage

13.09

Debt/EBITDA

1.50

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

CyclicalFairly Valued

Fair Value

$397.83

Current Price

$372.22

Margin of Safety

+6.4%

Fair Value Range

$377.94 - $417.72

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$397.83
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):Not enough data to compute it
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$6.88
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not applicable to this type of company
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Last Earnings Surprise:-36.43%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

344.65

ROE

4.6%

P/B Ratio

16.93

P/FCF

255.14

Gross Margin

18.9%

ROIC

3.0%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

3.0%

WACC

14.0%

ROIC − WACC

-11.0 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (13)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 38.88%
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Positive free cash flow
  • Current ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Revenue growth 5Y 24.6%
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 4.91
  • Share dilution 1.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (12)

  • ROIC 3.1%
  • Gross margin 18.9%
  • P/FCF 255.14
  • P/B ratio 16.93
  • Operating margin 4.2%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • ROE 4.6%
  • Earnings surprise, average -7.0%
  • PEG ratio 9.61
  • Net margin trend 3.7% vs 6.3%

Unavailable (1)

  • Dividend payout –

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

4.91

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

1.1%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Elon R. MuskCo-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director54
Mr. Vaibhav TanejaChief Financial Officer47
Mr. Xiaotong ZhuSenior Vice President of APAC & Global Vehicle Manufacturing45
Travis AxelrodHead of Investor Relations-
Mr. Brandon EhrhartGeneral Counsel & Corporate Secretary-
Mr. Franz von HolzhausenChief Designer-
Ms. Roxanne Inskip-KayeHead of Operations - Electric Vehicle Business-
Mr. John WalkerVice President of Sales - North America62
Mr. Rodney D. Westmoreland Jr.Director of Construction Management-
Mr. Lars MoravyVice President of Vehicle Engineering-

Audit Risk

4

Board Risk

10

Compensation Risk

10

Shareholder Rights Risk

9

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-01-29

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-10-22

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-21

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much TSLA moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityHigh

More volatile than 75% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
32.5%
Volatility 90d
51.1%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
2.22Correlation 0.63
Max drawdown (12m)
-39.1%
ATR (14d, % of price)
3.38%

Earnings reactions

How TSLA moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

No upcoming release on the calendar.

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.8% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Oct 21, 2026After the close0.450.48+6.3% -3.2% -3.1% n/a
Jul 22, 2026After the close0.520.33-36.4% -8.8% -14.5% -20.2%
Apr 22, 2026After the close0.380.41+8.7% -3.2% -3.6% -3.8%
Jan 28, 2026After the close0.450.50+10.1% +1.5% -3.5% -5.9%
Oct 22, 2025After the close0.560.50-10.5% -4.3% +2.3% +5.1%
Jul 23, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-6.8% -8.2% -4.1%
Apr 22, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+7.1% +5.4% +22.7%
Jan 29, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+5.6% +2.9% -2.8%
Oct 23, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+14.5% +21.9% +20.5%
Jul 23, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-8.5% -12.3% -9.6%
Apr 23, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+12.6% +12.1% +26.7%
Jan 24, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-8.7% -12.1% -9.9%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on TSLA and what the price did next.

  • 10/22/2026Negative
    A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Doesn’t Add Up
    +1 day
    pending
    +3 days
    pending
  • 10/22/2026Positive
    U.S. Earnings Season Heats Up as MEXC TSLA Stock Futures Weekly Volume Jumps 101%
    +1 day
    -1.9%
    +3 days
    pending
  • 10/21/2026Negative
    Headline no longer in the latest news feed
    +1 day
    -1.9%
    +3 days
    pending
  • 10/21/2026Positive
    Headline no longer in the latest news feed
    +1 day
    -1.9%
    +3 days
    pending
  • 10/20/2026Positive
    Headline no longer in the latest news feed
    +1 day
    +2.9%
    +3 days
    pending
  • 10/16/2026Positive
    Headline no longer in the latest news feed
    +1 day
    -1.0%
    +3 days
    +3.5%
  • 10/15/2026Negative
    Headline no longer in the latest news feed

    Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.

  • 10/9/2026Positive
    Headline no longer in the latest news feed

    Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.

  • 10/7/2026Negative
    Headline no longer in the latest news feed

    Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.

  • 10/2/2026Positive
    Headline no longer in the latest news feed

    Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for TSLA.

  • 2d agoNEGATIVE
    A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Doesn’t Add Up

    Bloomberg Opinion columnist Liam Denning argues that a proposed merger between Tesla and SpaceX would be financially illogical, citing recent earnings reports. The analysis suggests that the distinct financial profiles and operational needs of each company make consolidation impractical. Investors may view this potential merger negatively, as it could dilute Tesla's focus and introduce significant financial complexities, potentially impacting its stock valuation and future growth prospects.

  • 2d agoNEUTRAL
    Tre sfide chiave per la fusione Tesla–SpaceX

    A potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX, spearheaded by Elon Musk, faces significant hurdles according to former Tesla advisor Steve Westly. Key challenges include valuation discrepancies, regulatory approval processes, and Tesla's operational landscape in China. Both companies have formed special committees to explore a potential deal, signaling movement towards a combination. However, Musk has cautioned that a merger is not guaranteed. For investors, the terms of any proposed transaction will be critical, alongside the strategic industrial logic, as valuation remains a primary obstacle to a completed deal.

  • 2d agoPOSITIVE
    U.S. Earnings Season Heats Up as MEXC TSLA Stock Futures Weekly Volume Jumps 101%

    Tesla Inc. (TSLA) saw a significant surge in trading volume for its stock futures on MEXC, with weekly volume jumping 101% to approximately 137 million USDT in the week of October 12-18. This spike preceded the company's unveiling of its next-generation Roadster on October 15 and its subsequent quarterly earnings announcement on October 21. Tesla reported third-quarter 2026 results with a gross margin of 19.6% and adjusted earnings per share that exceeded market expectations. The increased trading activity and positive earnings report suggest growing investor interest and confidence in Tesla's performance and future prospects.