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United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

Undervalued
IndustrialsAirlinesUnited States

Fundamental

73

Price

$97.93

Market Cap

$31.19B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

United Airlines operates a global network of passenger and cargo flights built around hub airports — Newark, Chicago O'Hare, Houston, Denver, San Francisco and others — where it connects passengers from smaller cities onto longer-haul routes. It flies under its own brand and through regional partners operating smaller aircraft on its behalf. Beyond flying, MileagePlus, its frequent-flyer program, sells miles to a co-branded credit card partner and airline partners, a business that has become an important source of profit in its own right.

How it makes money

Most revenue comes from selling seats: fares, plus a growing premium mix from first/business class and extra-legroom economy, which carries higher margins than the base ticket. Cargo revenue comes from freight capacity sold in the belly of passenger aircraft. A smaller but fast-growing slice — loyalty revenue — comes from selling MileagePlus miles to its co-branded credit card issuer and partners, a fee-based business that is far less capital-intensive and far more profitable than flying planes.

Revenue by segment

Passenger90.5%

Fares from flying passengers on United's own network and through regional partners, including a growing share of higher-margin premium seating.

Other operating revenue6.5%

Mainly loyalty revenue from selling MileagePlus miles to its co-branded credit card partner and other partners, plus ancillary fees.

Cargo3%

Freight capacity sold in the cargo hold of passenger aircraft, a small but steady complement to passenger flying.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Narrow

United's hub-and-spoke network gives it a dominant position and limited take-off and landing slots at airports like Newark and Chicago O'Hare, which is hard for a new entrant to replicate. Its MileagePlus loyalty program and co-branded credit card also give frequent flyers a reason to keep choosing United over a cheaper fare elsewhere, though airline seats remain largely interchangeable and price-sensitive travelers switch readily when fares diverge.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Air travel demand tracks the broader economy closely: business travel budgets and discretionary leisure spending both contract quickly in a downturn, while jet fuel — a major cost — moves with oil prices that United does not control. High fixed costs from aircraft and labor mean a modest revenue decline can hit profits hard, which is why airline earnings have historically swung more sharply than the economy itself.

Key risks

  • Jet fuel prices are largely outside its control — Fuel is one of the largest operating costs and its price is set by global oil markets United cannot influence; a sustained spike compresses margins faster than fares can be raised to compensate.
  • Heavily unionized workforce — Pilots, flight attendants and other employee groups are represented by unions whose contract negotiations can raise labor costs materially or, if talks break down, disrupt operations through strikes or slowdowns.
  • Demand is highly sensitive to the economy — Both business and leisure travel contract quickly when the economy weakens, and United's high fixed costs from aircraft leases and long-term labor contracts make it hard to cut expenses as fast as revenue can fall.
  • Safety incidents and regulatory disruption — An accident, a serious safety lapse, or a broader regulatory grounding of aircraft types it operates could ground part of the fleet, damage the brand and trigger significant unplanned costs.
  • Weather and air-traffic-control disruption — Severe weather, air-traffic-control staffing shortages and other operational disruptions can cause widespread flight cancellations, which are costly to passengers and to United's own reputation and finances.

The case for

Buyers argue that United's hub network, slot-constrained gates at major airports and a fast-growing, high-margin loyalty and credit-card business give it earnings power that is more durable and less cyclical than the airline's history of boom-and-bust profits would suggest.

The case against

Sellers worry that airline seats remain a largely undifferentiated product bought mostly on price, that fuel costs and unionized labor are both largely outside United's control, and that high fixed costs from aircraft and long-term contracts mean profits fall faster than revenue whenever the economy or travel demand turns down.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$62.90B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$3.50B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$2.56B

Total Equity

$15.28B

Total Liabilities

$61.17B

Current Ratio

0.78

Interest Coverage

3.68

Debt/EBITDA

4.40

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

CyclicalUndervalued

Fair Value

$187.06

Current Price

$97.93

Margin of Safety

+47.6%

Fair Value Range

$131.26 - $242.86

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$152.48
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$93.75
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$97.03
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not applicable to this type of company
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:$249.29
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Last Earnings Surprise:+5.03%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

9.18

ROE

21.9%

P/B Ratio

1.90

P/FCF

12.49

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

6.8%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

6.8%

WACC

7.5%

ROIC − WACC

-0.7 pp

ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • ROIC 6.8%
  • P/FCF 12.49
  • P/B ratio 1.90
  • Operating margin 7.7%
  • Positive free cash flow
  • Current ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 22.5%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 30.9%
  • Earnings surprise, average 6.0%
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.55
  • Share dilution -1.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (5)

  • Price CAGR 4.27%
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Fairly Valued)
  • Net margin trend 5.6% vs 5.7%

Unavailable (3)

  • Gross margin –
  • Dividend payout –
  • PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

2.55

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-1.4%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. J. Scott KirbyCEO & Director58
Mr. Brett J. Hart J.D.President55
Mr. Michael D. Leskinen CFAExecutive VP & CFO45
Mr. Torbjorn J. EnqvistExecutive VP & COO53
Mr. Andrew P. NocellaExecutive VP & Chief Commercial Officer55
Ms. Brigitte BokemeierVP, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller47
Mr. Jason BirnbaumChief Information Officer53
Ms. Kristina Munoz EdwardsManaging Director of Investor Relations-
Mr. Josh EarnestExecutive VP of Communications & Advertising-
Ms. Doreen BurseSenior Vice President of Worldwide Sales-

Audit Risk

9

Board Risk

3

Compensation Risk

5

Shareholder Rights Risk

10

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-12

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-10-21

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-20

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much UAL moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 58% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
38.9%
Volatility 90d
39.4%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
2.22Correlation 0.59
Max drawdown (12m)
-29.8%
ATR (14d, % of price)
4.83%

Earnings reactions

How UAL moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

No upcoming release on the calendar.

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.5% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
  • Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Oct 20, 2026After the close2.592.54-1.9% -0.3% +4.0% n/a
Jul 15, 2026After the close1.891.99+5.0% -3.6% -1.8% -3.1%
Apr 21, 2026After the close1.081.19+10.0% -1.2% -5.6% -6.9%
Jan 20, 2026After the close2.973.10+4.5% +3.1% +2.2% -4.2%
Oct 15, 2025After the close2.662.78+4.6% -1.1% -5.6% -7.5%
Jul 16, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+3.9% +3.1% +2.2%
Apr 15, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+3.9% 0.0% +1.5%
Jan 21, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+4.8% -2.3% -3.8%
Oct 15, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+2.1% +12.4% +16.3%
Jul 17, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+2.1% -1.2% -2.0%
Apr 16, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+7.1% +17.4% +30.2%
Jan 22, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+6.7% +5.3% +9.5%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on UAL and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for UAL.

  • 3d agoPOSITIVE
    United ‘Still Solidly Profitable’ as Fuels Costs Rise, CEO Kirby Says

    United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stated the company remains 'solidly profitable' despite rising fuel costs, indicating a strong ability to pass these expenses to consumers. Kirby also highlighted continued robust customer demand. This suggests that United Airlines is effectively managing operational challenges and maintaining pricing power, which is a positive sign for its financial performance and investor outlook. The airline's resilience in the face of increased input costs points to a healthy business model and strong market position.

  • 4d agoNEGATIVE
    United Airlines, deludono conti e previsioni con aumento prezzo del carburante

    United Airlines announced adjusted earnings per share of $2.54, missing analyst expectations. The company also provided forecasts that fell short of market consensus, citing increased fuel prices as a primary driver. This disappointing financial performance and outlook suggest potential headwinds for the airline's profitability in the near term. Investors will be closely monitoring management's strategies to mitigate rising operational costs and their impact on future revenue growth.

  • 4d agoNEUTRAL
    United Airlines CEO—who made $32 million last year—calls for a national wealth tax and a near-100% inheritance tax: ‘I would pay them’

    United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, who earned $32 million in 2025, has publicly advocated for a national wealth tax and a nearly 100% inheritance tax, stating his willingness to pay them. This stance comes amid growing wealth inequality in the U.S., where the top 1% controls an increasing portion of national wealth. Kirby's compensation was approximately 334 times that of the median United employee. While the CEO's personal views on taxation are noted, the direct financial impact on United Airlines' operations or stock performance remains unclear from this statement alone.

  • 4d agoNEGATIVE
    United Airlines Misses Estimates, Squeezed by Soaring Fuel Costs

    United Airlines Holdings Inc. has issued a disappointing earnings forecast for the fourth quarter, signaling that elevated jet fuel costs are significantly impacting profitability. This comes despite continued strong demand for air travel, indicating that operational expenses are outweighing revenue growth. The airline's outlook suggests potential headwinds for the sector, as companies struggle to pass on increased fuel expenses to consumers. Investors should monitor fuel price trends and United's ability to manage its cost structure going forward.

  • 9/16/2026NEGATIVE
    United, American Say Fuel Cost Surge May Mean Capacity Cuts

    United Airlines and American Airlines are signaling potential capacity reductions for the fourth quarter due to persistent high fuel costs. This indicates that the airlines are facing significant operational challenges, as fuel is a major expense. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as capacity cuts can impact revenue growth and profitability. The news suggests a challenging environment for the airline sector, potentially leading to reduced earnings forecasts and a negative sentiment towards airline stocks.

  • 8/25/2026POSITIVE
    United Airlines CEO on Expansion Plans, Airfares, Demand

    United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby outlined the company's most significant international expansion, adding 10 new destinations in Europe and Asia. This strategic move is supported by robust customer demand and a strong US economy, according to Kirby. The airline also plans to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices, signaling operational resilience. For investors, this aggressive growth strategy, coupled with positive demand indicators and proactive cost management, suggests a bullish outlook for United Airlines, potentially leading to increased market share and revenue.

  • 7/19/2026POSITIVE
    How United’s ‘premiumization’ strategy got passengers to swallow higher airfares without a fight

    United Airlines reported strong second-quarter earnings, demonstrating the success of its 'premiumization' strategy. Despite rising fuel costs and higher airfares, passengers have largely accepted the increased prices without significant pushback. This indicates robust demand and effective pricing power for the airline. The company's ability to maintain passenger volume and revenue growth in a challenging cost environment suggests operational efficiency and a strong brand appeal, which are positive indicators for investors looking at the airline sector.