United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
UndervaluedFundamental
73
Price
$97.93
Market Cap
$31.19B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
United Airlines operates a global network of passenger and cargo flights built around hub airports — Newark, Chicago O'Hare, Houston, Denver, San Francisco and others — where it connects passengers from smaller cities onto longer-haul routes. It flies under its own brand and through regional partners operating smaller aircraft on its behalf. Beyond flying, MileagePlus, its frequent-flyer program, sells miles to a co-branded credit card partner and airline partners, a business that has become an important source of profit in its own right.
How it makes money
Most revenue comes from selling seats: fares, plus a growing premium mix from first/business class and extra-legroom economy, which carries higher margins than the base ticket. Cargo revenue comes from freight capacity sold in the belly of passenger aircraft. A smaller but fast-growing slice — loyalty revenue — comes from selling MileagePlus miles to its co-branded credit card issuer and partners, a fee-based business that is far less capital-intensive and far more profitable than flying planes.
Revenue by segment
Fares from flying passengers on United's own network and through regional partners, including a growing share of higher-margin premium seating.
Mainly loyalty revenue from selling MileagePlus miles to its co-branded credit card partner and other partners, plus ancillary fees.
Freight capacity sold in the cargo hold of passenger aircraft, a small but steady complement to passenger flying.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowUnited's hub-and-spoke network gives it a dominant position and limited take-off and landing slots at airports like Newark and Chicago O'Hare, which is hard for a new entrant to replicate. Its MileagePlus loyalty program and co-branded credit card also give frequent flyers a reason to keep choosing United over a cheaper fare elsewhere, though airline seats remain largely interchangeable and price-sensitive travelers switch readily when fares diverge.
What drives demand
CyclicalAir travel demand tracks the broader economy closely: business travel budgets and discretionary leisure spending both contract quickly in a downturn, while jet fuel — a major cost — moves with oil prices that United does not control. High fixed costs from aircraft and labor mean a modest revenue decline can hit profits hard, which is why airline earnings have historically swung more sharply than the economy itself.
Key risks
- Jet fuel prices are largely outside its control — Fuel is one of the largest operating costs and its price is set by global oil markets United cannot influence; a sustained spike compresses margins faster than fares can be raised to compensate.
- Heavily unionized workforce — Pilots, flight attendants and other employee groups are represented by unions whose contract negotiations can raise labor costs materially or, if talks break down, disrupt operations through strikes or slowdowns.
- Demand is highly sensitive to the economy — Both business and leisure travel contract quickly when the economy weakens, and United's high fixed costs from aircraft leases and long-term labor contracts make it hard to cut expenses as fast as revenue can fall.
- Safety incidents and regulatory disruption — An accident, a serious safety lapse, or a broader regulatory grounding of aircraft types it operates could ground part of the fleet, damage the brand and trigger significant unplanned costs.
- Weather and air-traffic-control disruption — Severe weather, air-traffic-control staffing shortages and other operational disruptions can cause widespread flight cancellations, which are costly to passengers and to United's own reputation and finances.
The case for
Buyers argue that United's hub network, slot-constrained gates at major airports and a fast-growing, high-margin loyalty and credit-card business give it earnings power that is more durable and less cyclical than the airline's history of boom-and-bust profits would suggest.
The case against
Sellers worry that airline seats remain a largely undifferentiated product bought mostly on price, that fuel costs and unionized labor are both largely outside United's control, and that high fixed costs from aircraft and long-term contracts mean profits fall faster than revenue whenever the economy or travel demand turns down.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$62.90B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$3.50B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$2.56B
Total Equity
$15.28B
Total Liabilities
$61.17B
Current Ratio
0.78
Interest Coverage
3.68
Debt/EBITDA
4.40
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$187.06
Current Price
$97.93
Margin of Safety
+47.6%
Fair Value Range
$131.26 - $242.86
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
9.18
ROE
21.9%
P/B Ratio
1.90
P/FCF
12.49
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
6.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
6.8%
WACC
7.5%
ROIC − WACC
-0.7 pp
ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- ROIC 6.8%
- P/FCF 12.49
- P/B ratio 1.90
- Operating margin 7.7%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 22.5%
- Revenue growth 5Y 30.9%
- Earnings surprise, average 6.0%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.55
- Share dilution -1.4%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (5)
- Price CAGR 4.27%
- Debt/equity ratio
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Fairly Valued)
- Net margin trend 5.6% vs 5.7%
Unavailable (3)
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. J. Scott Kirby | CEO & Director | 58 |
| Mr. Brett J. Hart J.D. | President | 55 |
| Mr. Michael D. Leskinen CFA | Executive VP & CFO | 45 |
| Mr. Torbjorn J. Enqvist | Executive VP & COO | 53 |
| Mr. Andrew P. Nocella | Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer | 55 |
| Ms. Brigitte Bokemeier | VP, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller | 47 |
| Mr. Jason Birnbaum | Chief Information Officer | 53 |
| Ms. Kristina Munoz Edwards | Managing Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Josh Earnest | Executive VP of Communications & Advertising | - |
| Ms. Doreen Burse | Senior Vice President of Worldwide Sales | - |
Audit Risk
9
Board Risk
3
Compensation Risk
5
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-12
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-21
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-20
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much UAL moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 58% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 38.9%
- Volatility 90d
- 39.4%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 2.22Correlation 0.59
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -29.8%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 4.83%
Earnings reactions
How UAL moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.5% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | After the close | 2.59 | 2.54 | -1.9% | -0.3% | +4.0% | n/a |
| Jul 15, 2026 | After the close | 1.89 | 1.99 | +5.0% | -3.6% | -1.8% | -3.1% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | After the close | 1.08 | 1.19 | +10.0% | -1.2% | -5.6% | -6.9% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | After the close | 2.97 | 3.10 | +4.5% | +3.1% | +2.2% | -4.2% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | After the close | 2.66 | 2.78 | +4.6% | -1.1% | -5.6% | -7.5% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.9% | +3.1% | +2.2% |
| Apr 15, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.9% | 0.0% | +1.5% |
| Jan 21, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.8% | -2.3% | -3.8% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.1% | +12.4% | +16.3% |
| Jul 17, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.1% | -1.2% | -2.0% |
| Apr 16, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.1% | +17.4% | +30.2% |
| Jan 22, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.7% | +5.3% | +9.5% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on UAL and what the price did next.
- 10/21/2026PositiveUnited ‘Still Solidly Profitable’ as Fuels Costs Rise, CEO Kirby Says
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/21/2026NegativeUnited Airlines, deludono conti e previsioni con aumento prezzo del carburante
- +1 day
- +3.5%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/20/2026NegativeUnited Airlines Misses Estimates, Squeezed by Soaring Fuel Costs
- +1 day
- +3.5%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/20/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +3.5%
- +3 days
- pending
- 9/16/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/16/2026NegativeUnited, American Say Fuel Cost Surge May Mean Capacity Cuts
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/25/2026PositiveUnited Airlines CEO on Expansion Plans, Airfares, Demand
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 7/19/2026PositiveHow United’s ‘premiumization’ strategy got passengers to swallow higher airfares without a fight
- +1 day
- +2.0%
- +3 days
- +1.0%
- 7/15/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -1.2%
- +3 days
- -1.2%
- 6/30/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for UAL.
- 3d agoPOSITIVEUnited ‘Still Solidly Profitable’ as Fuels Costs Rise, CEO Kirby Says
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stated the company remains 'solidly profitable' despite rising fuel costs, indicating a strong ability to pass these expenses to consumers. Kirby also highlighted continued robust customer demand. This suggests that United Airlines is effectively managing operational challenges and maintaining pricing power, which is a positive sign for its financial performance and investor outlook. The airline's resilience in the face of increased input costs points to a healthy business model and strong market position.
- 4d agoNEGATIVEUnited Airlines, deludono conti e previsioni con aumento prezzo del carburante
United Airlines announced adjusted earnings per share of $2.54, missing analyst expectations. The company also provided forecasts that fell short of market consensus, citing increased fuel prices as a primary driver. This disappointing financial performance and outlook suggest potential headwinds for the airline's profitability in the near term. Investors will be closely monitoring management's strategies to mitigate rising operational costs and their impact on future revenue growth.
- 4d agoNEUTRALUnited Airlines CEO—who made $32 million last year—calls for a national wealth tax and a near-100% inheritance tax: ‘I would pay them’
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, who earned $32 million in 2025, has publicly advocated for a national wealth tax and a nearly 100% inheritance tax, stating his willingness to pay them. This stance comes amid growing wealth inequality in the U.S., where the top 1% controls an increasing portion of national wealth. Kirby's compensation was approximately 334 times that of the median United employee. While the CEO's personal views on taxation are noted, the direct financial impact on United Airlines' operations or stock performance remains unclear from this statement alone.
- 4d agoNEGATIVEUnited Airlines Misses Estimates, Squeezed by Soaring Fuel Costs
United Airlines Holdings Inc. has issued a disappointing earnings forecast for the fourth quarter, signaling that elevated jet fuel costs are significantly impacting profitability. This comes despite continued strong demand for air travel, indicating that operational expenses are outweighing revenue growth. The airline's outlook suggests potential headwinds for the sector, as companies struggle to pass on increased fuel expenses to consumers. Investors should monitor fuel price trends and United's ability to manage its cost structure going forward.
- 9/16/2026NEGATIVEUnited, American Say Fuel Cost Surge May Mean Capacity Cuts
United Airlines and American Airlines are signaling potential capacity reductions for the fourth quarter due to persistent high fuel costs. This indicates that the airlines are facing significant operational challenges, as fuel is a major expense. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as capacity cuts can impact revenue growth and profitability. The news suggests a challenging environment for the airline sector, potentially leading to reduced earnings forecasts and a negative sentiment towards airline stocks.
- 8/25/2026POSITIVEUnited Airlines CEO on Expansion Plans, Airfares, Demand
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby outlined the company's most significant international expansion, adding 10 new destinations in Europe and Asia. This strategic move is supported by robust customer demand and a strong US economy, according to Kirby. The airline also plans to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices, signaling operational resilience. For investors, this aggressive growth strategy, coupled with positive demand indicators and proactive cost management, suggests a bullish outlook for United Airlines, potentially leading to increased market share and revenue.
- 7/19/2026POSITIVEHow United’s ‘premiumization’ strategy got passengers to swallow higher airfares without a fight
United Airlines reported strong second-quarter earnings, demonstrating the success of its 'premiumization' strategy. Despite rising fuel costs and higher airfares, passengers have largely accepted the increased prices without significant pushback. This indicates robust demand and effective pricing power for the airline. The company's ability to maintain passenger volume and revenue growth in a challenging cost environment suggests operational efficiency and a strong brand appeal, which are positive indicators for investors looking at the airline sector.