Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)
NEUTRALFundamental
74
Price
$533.56
Market Cap
$23.16B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Ulta Beauty operates specialty stores across the United States, plus the recently acquired Space NK chain in the UK and Ireland, that sell both mass-market and prestige cosmetics, skincare, haircare and fragrance under one roof, most stores also housing a full-service salon. It competes by carrying a far broader assortment than either a drugstore or a single prestige retailer, and by combining product sales with in-store services and a large loyalty programme.
How it makes money
Net sales of $12.4 billion in fiscal 2025 come mainly from merchandise sold in stores and online, with a smaller and steadier contribution from salon services. Ulta reports as a single business segment and does not break out the split between merchandise, services and e-commerce revenue. Gross margin runs around 39%, helped by the loyalty programme, which drives repeat visits and reduces the promotional discounting typical of beauty retail.
Competitive moat
Brand · NarrowUlta's loyalty programme has tens of millions of active members whose purchase data lets it tailor offers and keep shoppers coming back instead of switching to a pure online retailer. Combined with a one-stop assortment spanning mass and prestige brands that few rivals match, this creates real customer stickiness, but it does not stop Sephora or Amazon from competing hard on price and convenience.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalBeauty spending is more resilient than most discretionary retail — a lipstick is a cheap treat even in a weaker economy — but it is not immune: management flagged inflation, elevated interest rates and cautious consumer behaviour as headwinds heading into fiscal 2026, and store traffic can soften when household budgets tighten.
Key risks
- Intense, low-barrier competition — The beauty retail market has few barriers to entry and pits Ulta against mass merchandisers, specialty retailers, department stores, drugstores and e-commerce players including Amazon and Sephora's expanded footprint through Kohl's stores.
- Sensitivity to discretionary spending — Inflation and elevated interest rates have already pressured consumer purchases of discretionary items like beauty products, and the company expects these macroeconomic pressures to continue.
- Dependence on outside vendors — Most merchandise is sourced from third-party vendors; the financial failure or disruption of a significant vendor could leave gaps in the assortment that are not easily filled.
- Private label brand risk — Ulta's own private-label merchandise exposes it to the sourcing, manufacturing and quality risks that any company selling products under its own name must manage directly.
The case for
Buyers point to category leadership that combines mass and prestige beauty under one roof with a loyalty base of tens of millions of members driving repeat visits, in-store salon services that a pure online rival cannot replicate, and the Space NK acquisition extending the format internationally.
The case against
Sellers fear that barriers to entry are low and competitors range from Amazon to a Sephora newly present in thousands of Kohl's stores, that discretionary beauty spending is exposed to a weaker consumer, and that dependence on outside vendors for most merchandise limits control over cost and availability.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$12.71B
Trailing 12 months (through 5/2/2026)
Net Income
$1.19B
Trailing 12 months (through 5/2/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$1.07B
Total Equity
$2.80B
Total Liabilities
$4.20B
Current Ratio
1.31
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
1.26
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$825.70
Current Price
$533.56
Margin of Safety
+35.4%
Fair Value Range
$536.70 - $1114.69
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
20.19
ROE
41.1%
P/B Ratio
8.97
P/FCF
20.49
Gross Margin
39.3%
ROIC
27.2%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
27.2%
WACC
8.2%
ROIC − WACC
+19.0 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (21)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 25.70%
- Price CAGR 7.42%
- ROIC 27.2%
- Gross Margin 39.3%
- P/FCF 20.49
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 12.4%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 44.8%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 15.0%
- Analyst Consensus 74% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 7.2%
- PEG Ratio 0.35
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.30
- Share Dilution -5.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (5)
- P/B Ratio 8.97
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Net Margin Trend 9.4% vs 10.4%
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Ms. Kecia L. Steelman | President, CEO & Director | 54 |
| Mr. Christopher Lialios | Senior VP, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Rene G. Casares | Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | - |
| Ms. Anita J. Ryan | Chief Human Resources Officer | 61 |
| Ms. Kiley F. Rawlins CFA | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Kelly Mahoney | Chief Marketing Officer | - |
| Ms. Amiee Bayer-Thomas | Chief Retail Officer | - |
| Mr. Erik Lopez | Chief Supply Chain Officer | - |
| Ms. Lauren Brindley | Chief Merchandising & Digital Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Andy Lightfoot | Chief Executive Officer of Space NK | - |
Audit Risk
7
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
5
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ULTA, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 6/2/2026POSITIVEUlta Beauty Shares Climb On Strong Q1 Report: Details
Ulta Beauty Inc. reported a strong first quarter, exceeding analyst expectations and driving its share price higher. The company's performance was bolstered by robust sales growth across key product categories and an increase in customer loyalty program engagement. Management provided an optimistic outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year, citing continued market share gains and effective inventory management. Investors are likely to view this report favorably, anticipating sustained revenue growth and potential for increased profitability, which could lead to upward revisions in price targets.
- 4/22/2026POSITIVEUlta Beauty Unveils AI Shopping Push With Alphabet Partnership
Ulta Beauty Inc. is set to gain in premarket trading following the announcement of a strategic partnership with Alphabet Inc. The collaboration will introduce AI-powered shopping tools designed to significantly enhance personalized customer experiences. This technological integration aims to leverage AI for better product recommendations and tailored beauty advice, potentially driving increased customer engagement and sales. For investors, this move signals Ulta Beauty's commitment to innovation and its proactive approach to integrating cutting-edge technology to maintain a competitive edge in the retail beauty sector.
- 3/16/2026NEUTRALUlta Stock: Down 24% in Just 1 Month, Is This a Buying Opportunity?
Ulta Beauty Inc. has experienced a significant 24% stock price decline over the past month, raising questions about its current valuation. Despite reporting strong fourth-quarter sales, the company's cautious forward-looking guidance and observed margin compression have led investors to re-evaluate their positions. This divergence between past performance and future expectations creates uncertainty, making it a critical juncture for the beauty retailer. Investors are now weighing the potential for a rebound against the risks indicated by the shrinking margins and subdued outlook.
- 3/13/2026NEGATIVEUlta Beauty’s stock heads for worst day in 2 years as consumers get pickier about cosmetics
Ulta Beauty Inc. experienced a significant stock decline, marking its worst performance in two years. This downturn follows a disappointing earnings outlook, signaling increased consumer selectivity in the cosmetics market. The company's shares were among the top decliners on the S&P 500 index. Investors are reacting to concerns about future revenue and profitability as consumer spending habits shift, potentially impacting Ulta's market share and growth trajectory.
- 3/12/2026NEUTRALUlta Beauty (ULTA) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
Ulta Beauty released its Q4 2025 earnings transcript on March 12, 2026. While the transcript provides detailed insights into the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and outlook, the absence of specific financial figures or forward-looking statements within the provided information prevents a definitive assessment of its immediate market impact. Investors will need to review the full transcript for key performance indicators, management commentary on sales trends, profitability, and any guidance provided for the upcoming fiscal year to form an investment thesis.
- 3/12/2026NEGATIVEUlta Beauty says it’s ‘increasingly mindful’ of effects that global conflicts have on shoppers, as profit forecast sinks stock
Ulta Beauty Inc. shares experienced a significant decline in after-hours trading following the company's release of its annual profit and same-store sales forecast, which fell short of Wall Street's expectations. The beauty retailer cited increasingly selective consumer spending patterns and expressed heightened awareness of the impact of global conflicts on shopper behavior. This cautious outlook suggests potential headwinds for consumer discretionary spending, impacting revenue and profitability projections for the upcoming year. Investors are likely reassessing the company's growth trajectory in light of these macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
- 3/6/2026NEUTRALA Look Into Ulta Beauty Inc's Price Over Earnings
Ulta Beauty Inc. is a prominent player in the beauty retail sector, known for its extensive range of cosmetics, skincare, and haircare products. The company operates a unique retail model that combines a beauty superstore with a full-service salon. Recent performance indicators and market sentiment surrounding Ulta Beauty are crucial for investors assessing its current valuation and future growth prospects. While specific earnings figures or forward-looking statements are not detailed in this summary, the company's strategic positioning and competitive landscape within the beauty industry are key factors for analysis.
- 2/23/2026NEUTRALHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Ulta Beauty Stock In The Last 15 Years
A retrospective analysis of Ulta Beauty's stock performance over the last 15 years highlights the company's remarkable growth, a common theme for businesses that have successfully dominated their niche. While such articles do not provide new, actionable catalysts, they serve to reinforce investor perception of the brand and underscore the long-term strength of its business model. For existing shareholders, it's a validation of their investment thesis. For potential new investors, it serves as a case study on growth potential within the beauty and retail sector. Although past performance is no guarantee of future returns, Ulta's ability to consistently generate value over a decade and a half emphasizes its market leadership and resilience through various economic cycles, a factor the market tends to price in positively.
via Markets Gazette