Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Fair ValueFundamental
49
Price
$119.89
Market Cap
$942.61B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Walmart operates supercentres, discount stores and neighbourhood grocery stores under its own name in the United States, plus Sam's Club membership warehouses, and runs a large e-commerce business alongside them. Outside the US it owns retail chains in Mexico, Central America, Canada and China. It sells groceries, general merchandise, apparel and household goods, and has added a growing advertising business that sells shelf space and digital ads to the brands stocked on its shelves.
How it makes money
Revenue is recognized transaction by transaction, every time a customer checks out in a store or online, so sales volume rather than price per item is the main driver of the top line. Sam's Club adds recurring membership fees paid to shop there. Because Walmart buys in enormous volume, it negotiates low wholesale prices from suppliers and keeps a thin margin on each item, relying on scale and inventory turnover — plus the fast-growing, higher-margin advertising business — to generate profit.
Revenue by segment
Supercentres, discount stores and neighbourhood markets across the United States, plus Walmart's US e-commerce and advertising businesses.
Retail operations outside the US, mainly in Mexico, Central America, Canada and China.
Membership warehouse clubs in the US selling groceries and general merchandise in bulk to fee-paying members.
Competitive moat
Cost advantage · WideWalmart's purchase volumes are so large that it can negotiate wholesale prices few competitors can match, and it spreads the fixed costs of its supply chain and distribution network over more sales than almost anyone else. That combination lets it sustain everyday low prices while still turning a profit, which smaller or regional retailers struggle to match without losing money.
What drives demand
DefensiveA large share of Walmart's sales is groceries and everyday household essentials, categories people keep buying in a recession and where Walmart's low prices can even attract more customers trading down from pricier retailers. General merchandise, apparel and electronics are more discretionary and do soften in a downturn, but the grocery-heavy mix keeps overall demand more stable than at a typical discretionary retailer.
Key risks
- Execution risk at massive scale — The company operates at such scale that small operational mistakes in pricing, inventory or logistics can become expensive very quickly once repeated across thousands of stores and clubs.
- Low-price strategy limits margin — Walmart's everyday-low-price positioning constrains how much it can raise prices when its own costs rise, so cost inflation it cannot pass on to customers falls straight onto margin.
- E-commerce investment burden — Growing online and delivery sales requires continuous, heavy investment in fulfilment and logistics, and this channel remains less profitable than in-store sales even as it grows.
- Labor cost inflation and unionization — As one of the largest private employers, Walmart is exposed to wage inflation, benefit costs and unionization efforts that can raise operating costs or disrupt store operations.
The case for
Buyers argue that Walmart's scale and low-price positioning make it a natural destination when shoppers are cautious, that its advertising and membership businesses add higher-margin profit on top of thin retail margins, and that record digital sales show it competing effectively online as well as in stores.
The case against
Sellers worry that Walmart's everyday-low-price model leaves little room to raise prices when its own costs rise, that continued heavy investment is needed to keep e-commerce and delivery competitive with rivals, and that a change in leadership introduces execution uncertainty at a company already operating at enormous scale.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$728.47B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/31/2026)
Net Income
$22.08B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$14.92B
Total Equity
$99.62B
Total Liabilities
$178.78B
Current Ratio
0.77
Interest Coverage
17.36
Debt/EBITDA
1.68
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$103.00
Current Price
$119.89
Margin of Safety
-16.4%
Fair Value Range
$78.95 - $127.06
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
43.44
ROE
22.0%
P/B Ratio
9.68
P/FCF
70.41
Gross Margin
24.5%
ROIC
14.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
14.3%
WACC
7.6%
ROIC − WACC
+6.7 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (14)
- Price CAGR 16.98%
- ROIC 14.3%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 22.7%
- Earnings surprise, average 2.7%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.94
- Share dilution -0.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (12)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -0.76%
- Gross margin 24.5%
- P/FCF 70.41
- P/B ratio 9.68
- Operating margin 4.4%
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue growth 5Y 5.0%
- PEG ratio 3.77
- Net margin trend 3.0% vs 3.1%
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend payout –
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. John R. Furner | President, CEO & Director | 50 |
| Mr. John David Rainey Jr. | Executive VP & CFO | 55 |
| Mr. Suresh Kumar Ph.D. | Executive VP, Global CTO & Chief Development Officer | 60 |
| Mr. C. Douglas McMillon | Executive Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Daniel Danker | Executive Vice President of AI Acceleration, Product & Design | 44 |
| Mr. Dwayne M. Milum | Senior VP, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer | 49 |
| Ms. Stephanie Wissink | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Erin Nealy Cox J.D. | Executive VP of Global Governance, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 55 |
| Ms. Allyson Park | Senior VP & Chief Communications Officer | - |
| Mr. Jason Wooten | Head of Corporate Development | - |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
8
Compensation Risk
7
Shareholder Rights Risk
1
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-03-13
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-28
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-23
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much WMT moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 28% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 23.4%
- Volatility 90d
- 27.9%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- -0.11Correlation -0.05
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -23.5%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.07%
Earnings reactions
How WMT moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 19, 2026 · In 26 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 0.64Revenue estimate: $187.2B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.5% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | During the session | 0.66 | 0.66 | -0.6% | -6.9% | -9.2% | -8.7% |
| May 21, 2026 | During the session | 0.73 | 0.74 | +0.9% | -4.9% | -7.3% | -9.1% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | During the session | 0.61 | 0.62 | +2.2% | +1.5% | -1.4% | -0.7% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.3% | +6.5% | +8.4% |
| Aug 21, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.1% | -4.5% | -6.3% |
| May 15, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.0% | -6.5% | -7.5% |
| Nov 19, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.6% | +3.0% | +6.4% |
| Aug 15, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +8.0% | +6.6% | +9.6% |
| May 16, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.3% | +7.0% | +9.1% |
| Feb 20, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.8% | +3.2% | +5.0% |
| Nov 16, 2023 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -6.5% | -8.1% | -8.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on WMT and what the price did next.
- 10/15/2026PositiveLe azioni Walmart salgono dopo l'upgrade di Deutsche Bank a 'Compra'
- +1 day
- +1.2%
- +3 days
- +2.6%
- 10/5/2026PositiveHow Christina Zhu turned Sam’s Club into Walmart’s unlikely growth engine in China
- +1 day
- +1.5%
- +3 days
- +5.3%
- 9/16/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/4/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/22/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +3.0%
- +3 days
- +0.6%
- 8/21/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/20/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -0.5%
- +3 days
- +1.0%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for WMT.
- 4d agoNEUTRALWalmart takes aim at Amazon and Costco with new membership program — but is it a good deal?
Walmart is launching a new membership program designed to compete with Amazon Prime and Costco's membership model. The initiative aims to bundle various services and benefits for consumers. However, market analysts are expressing skepticism regarding consumer adoption rates and the clarity of the program's value proposition. The success hinges on whether the perceived benefits outweigh the cost and complexity for the average shopper. Investors will be closely watching subscriber numbers and customer engagement metrics in the coming quarters to gauge the program's impact on Walmart's revenue and market share.
- 5d agoNEUTRALWalmart Sells US Debt, Eyes Canada Market as Spending Grows
Walmart Inc. is reportedly exploring a debut Canadian debt offering, alongside a second US dollar bond issuance this year. This move signals the retail giant's strategy to diversify its funding base as it embarks on a significant spending initiative. While the specifics of the debt offerings, including size and yield, are yet to be disclosed, the company's proactive approach to securing capital suggests confidence in its growth trajectory and operational expansion plans. Investors will be monitoring the terms of these issuances for insights into Walmart's cost of capital and future investment capacity.
- 9d agoPOSITIVELe azioni Walmart salgono dopo l'upgrade di Deutsche Bank a 'Compra'
Walmart shares surged in pre-market trading following a significant upgrade from Deutsche Bank, which moved its rating from 'Hold' to 'Buy' and raised the price target to $136 from $113. The stock gained 2.7% in early trading and has risen over 8% in the past week. Analysts at Deutsche Bank, led by Krisztina Katai, cite a more favorable outlook for Walmart through 2027, highlighting the retailer's value proposition, potential market share gains, and margin improvement opportunities. The firm believes the current inflationary environment could further strengthen Walmart's competitive position as consumers seek value.
- 19d agoPOSITIVEHow Christina Zhu turned Sam’s Club into Walmart’s unlikely growth engine in China
Walmart China's CEO, Christina Zhu, is spearheading growth through Sam's Club, smaller portion sizes, and an ultrafast delivery network. This strategy is proving effective in a challenging Chinese consumer economy. Sam's Club, in particular, has become an unexpected growth driver for Walmart in the region. The focus on localized strategies and efficient delivery addresses current market demands, positioning Walmart for continued success in China. Investors should note this strategic pivot as a positive indicator for Walmart's international performance.
- 27d agoNEUTRALWalmart CEO says that the retail giant and its AI shopping assistant aren’t using personal information to set prices amid rollout of digital labels
Walmart's CEO has stated that the company and its AI shopping assistant are not utilizing personal information to adjust pricing, particularly with the ongoing rollout of digital labels. The executive emphasized that factors like time of day or urgency of purchase will not influence the prices displayed for groceries or electronics. This clarification aims to address potential consumer concerns about algorithmic pricing and data privacy, assuring customers that dynamic pricing based on individual behavior is not being implemented. For investors, this stance reinforces Walmart's commitment to transparency and customer trust, potentially mitigating reputational risks.
- 9/16/2026NEUTRALStrong Retail Sales Hide Consumer Divide: Analyst Kodali
Forrester analyst Sucharita Kodali highlights a significant divergence in US consumer spending. While higher-income consumers continue to spend robustly, rising costs, particularly for gasoline, are pressuring lower-income households. This economic split is expected to benefit discount retailers like Walmart, Costco, and Amazon, as they are better positioned to capture market share from struggling mid-tier retailers during the upcoming holiday season. Investors should monitor the performance of these large-cap retailers as indicators of consumer resilience and market consolidation.