Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG)
OvervaluedFundamental
52
Price
$34.05
Market Cap
$7.17B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Zillow runs the website and app most home shoppers in the United States use to browse listings, estimate what a home is worth, and find a real-estate agent. It does not buy or sell homes itself: it makes money by connecting the people looking at its site with agents, lenders and property managers who pay to reach them. The audience is the product; real estate transactions happen off Zillow's books.
How it makes money
Most revenue comes from real-estate agents and brokerages who pay for leads and advertising placement tied to Zillow's traffic, plus a growing slice from advertising sold to landlords and property managers listing rentals, and from fees earned originating mortgages. Because Zillow is paid for attention and leads rather than for closing a sale, its revenue rises and falls with how many people are actively browsing homes, not with home prices themselves.
Revenue by segment
Advertising and software sold to real-estate agents and brokerages, plus new-construction listings — the core of the business.
Advertising and listing tools sold to landlords and property managers for rental units, the fastest-growing part of the business.
Revenue from originating home loans and from advertising sold to mortgage lenders on Zillow's site.
Mainly display advertising not tied to the other three lines.
Competitive moat
Network effects · NarrowMore home shoppers on Zillow's site makes it more attractive for agents to advertise there, and more agent listings make the site more useful to shoppers — a loop that has made Zillow the largest audience in U.S. real estate search. It is not unbreakable: a large share of listing traffic depends on data-sharing agreements with brokers and portals, and a competitor like Google inserting listings directly into search results could intercept that audience before it reaches Zillow at all.
What drives demand
CyclicalZillow's revenue tracks the health of the housing market: low inventory, fewer new listings, and volatile mortgage rates reduce the transactions that fund agent advertising budgets, even if browsing traffic stays high. Rentals and mortgages add some diversification, but the core business still rises and falls with how active the housing market is.
Key risks
- Sensitivity to housing market conditions — Low housing inventory, fewer new for-sale listings, and volatile mortgage rates can reduce both the number of transactions consumers complete and demand for advertising from agents.
- Search platforms bypassing Zillow — Large search engines have begun showing home listings directly in their own results, which could divert the traffic Zillow depends on before it ever reaches Zillow's site.
- Legal and regulatory disputes — The company faces litigation, including antitrust claims tied to a rentals partnership with a competitor, from consumers, industry participants and government bodies, which could result in costs or forced changes to its business practices.
The case for
Buyers argue that Zillow's audience lead in real-estate search is difficult to replicate, that rentals and mortgages are diversifying revenue away from pure for-sale transactions and growing faster than the core business, and that full-year revenue growth well ahead of the housing industry's own growth shows Zillow taking share regardless of the market cycle.
The case against
Sellers fear that a business built on advertising to agents remains hostage to housing transaction volumes it does not control, that large search platforms inserting listings directly into their own results could erode the traffic advantage Zillow relies on, and that ongoing litigation adds cost and uncertainty on top of an already cyclical business.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$2.81B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$55M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$235M
Total Equity
$4.88B
Total Liabilities
$801M
Current Ratio
1.92
Interest Coverage
0.67
Debt/EBITDA
2.43
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$22.16
Current Price
$34.05
Margin of Safety
-53.7%
Fair Value Range
$14.40 - $29.92
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
154.77
ROE
0.5%
P/B Ratio
0.33
P/FCF
5.46
Gross Margin
72.9%
ROIC
0.2%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
0.2%
WACC
14.2%
ROIC − WACC
-14.0 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (12)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Gross margin 72.9%
- P/FCF 5.46
- P/B ratio 0.33
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Earnings surprise, average 5.8%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 7.05
- Net margin trend 2.0% vs -2.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (12)
- Price CAGR -2.14%
- ROIC 0.2%
- Operating margin 0.4%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE 1.2%
- Revenue growth 5Y -5.0%
- Share dilution 9.5%
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend payout –
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Richard N. Barton | Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chair | 57 |
| Mr. Lloyd D. Frink | Co-Founder, Co-Executive Chairman & President | 60 |
| Mr. Jeremy Wacksman | CEO & Director | 48 |
| Mr. Jeremy Hofmann | COO & CFO | 39 |
| Mr. David A. Beitel | Chief Technology Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Bradley Allen Berning | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Cassandra Knight | Chief Legal & Policy Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Dan Spaulding | Chief People Officer | 48 |
| Mr. Errol G. Samuelson | Chief Industry Development Officer | 59 |
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-11
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-05
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-17
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much ZG moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 82% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 59.9%
- Volatility 90d
- 56.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.14Correlation 0.29
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -62.9%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 4.40%
Earnings reactions
How ZG moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 4, 2026 · In 11 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 0.60Revenue estimate: $755M
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.5% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | After the close | 0.46 | 0.52 | +13.1% | -15.6% | -8.5% | -9.2% |
| May 6, 2026 | After the close | 0.46 | 0.53 | +14.2% | -3.7% | -1.8% | -13.3% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | After the close | 0.41 | 0.39 | -4.4% | -5.7% | -17.1% | -17.5% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | After the close | 0.44 | 0.44 | +0.2% | +1.8% | +4.0% | +1.4% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.3% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| May 7, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.0% | +0.5% | +1.2% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -12.8% | -10.7% | -8.6% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +15.9% | +25.0% | +28.8% |
| Aug 7, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +15.5% | +18.2% | +28.5% |
| May 1, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.0% | -5.4% | -0.6% |
| Feb 13, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.8% | +7.6% | -0.8% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.9% | -2.9% | +2.4% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on ZG and what the price did next.
- 2/27/2026PositiveZillow predicts major mortgage rate change, homebuying shift
- +1 day
- -3.2%
- +3 days
- -0.8%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ZG.
- 2/27/2026POSITIVEZillow predicts major mortgage rate change, homebuying shift
Real estate platform Zillow anticipates a significant turning point in the U.S. housing market, with mortgage rates expected to decline. This prediction suggests that affordability, long a distant dream for many homebuyers, could finally become a tangible reality. A drop in rates would make homeownership more accessible, stimulating demand and potentially revitalizing the sector. For investors, this outlook points to a potential strengthening of the real estate market, benefiting companies directly tied to the industry, such as Zillow itself, which would see increased transactions on its platform.