ASML Holding N.V. - New York Registry Shares (ASML)
Fair ValueFundamental
60
Price
$1571.80
Market Cap
$632.67B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
ASML makes the machines that print the microscopic circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, a step called lithography that every advanced chip factory needs. Its most advanced machines use extreme ultraviolet light, a technology ASML spent over a decade developing and is currently the only company in the world able to sell. Chipmakers such as TSMC, Samsung and Intel buy these machines, each costing tens of millions of dollars, to build the world's most advanced processors and memory chips.
How it makes money
ASML sells lithography systems as large, one-time equipment purchases, recognized as revenue when a machine is shipped and accepted by the customer; a growing share also comes from servicing, upgrading and maintaining machines already installed at customer factories over their many-year working life. Because a chip factory cannot run without ASML's most advanced tools, the company can charge prices that reflect the value of the entire fab built around each machine, not just its manufacturing cost.
Revenue by segment
Sales of new lithography machines, the most advanced of which use extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light and are unique to ASML.
Servicing, upgrading and maintaining lithography machines already installed at customer factories, a growing and recurring revenue stream.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · WideASML is the only company that makes machines capable of extreme ultraviolet lithography, the technology needed to print the smallest, most advanced chip features. Rivals such as Canon and Nikon have not matched this capability, built over more than a decade of research with partners including Zeiss for optics, leaving chipmakers with no alternative supplier for their most advanced factories.
What drives demand
CyclicalDemand follows the capital-spending cycles of a handful of very large chipmakers, who order machines years in advance based on forecasts of future chip demand that do not always come true. Semiconductor investment has historically swung between shortage and oversupply, and ASML's order book rises and falls with those cycles.
Key risks
- Export controls — Export restrictions imposed by the Dutch and US governments limit which customers, particularly in China, ASML may sell its most advanced machines to, and management has guided China's share of revenue down sharply for 2026.
- Customer concentration — A small number of very large chipmakers account for the majority of ASML's revenue, so a delay or cancellation of orders by any one of them has an outsized effect on results.
- Long, uncertain investment cycles — Chipmakers order machines years before they are delivered, based on demand forecasts that can prove wrong; a downturn in chip demand can leave ASML with orders customers no longer want on the original schedule.
- Single-source suppliers — ASML depends on a small number of specialized suppliers, such as Zeiss for optics, for critical components; a disruption at any one of them can delay machine deliveries across the business.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 38% of revenue
ASML's top two customers together accounted for about 38% of 2025 revenue, reflecting how concentrated advanced chipmaking is among a handful of giants such as TSMC, Samsung and Intel. A pause in any one customer's spending plans is significant.
The case for
Buyers argue that ASML's monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography makes it an unavoidable supplier to every advanced chip factory in the world, and that growing installed-base service revenue adds a steadier income stream on top of the more cyclical machine sales.
The case against
Sellers worry that export controls could permanently shrink ASML's addressable market in China, that revenue is concentrated among a handful of chipmakers whose capital spending swings sharply between cycles, and that today's record orders assume a pace of AI-driven chip demand that may not continue.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on August 23, 2026, shared with all users
KLA leads wafer process control and competes head-on with ASML's YieldStar optical metrology and HMI e-beam inspection tools for the same fabs' yield-management spending.
Nikon is the other maker of full production lithography scanners, selling its NSR ArF immersion, ArF dry, KrF and i-line steppers to the same chipmakers ASML supplies.
Canon sells i-line and KrF steppers for mature nodes and is pushing its FPA-1200NZ2C nanoimprint system as a cheaper alternative to ASML's EUV for advanced patterning.
SMEE is the Chinese state-backed lithography maker building domestic DUV scanners for SMIC, Hua Hong and CXMT, the Chinese customers ASML is barred from serving with its most advanced tools.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$35.33B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$10.64B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$10.37B
Total Equity
$449M
Total Liabilities
$1.96B
Current Ratio
1.49
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.12
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$1473.78
Current Price
$1571.80
Margin of Safety
-6.7%
Fair Value Range
$957.95 - $1989.60
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
40.39
ROE
65.6%
P/B Ratio
1408.89
P/FCF
60.99
Gross Margin
54.3%
ROIC
573.4%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC outlierROIC
573.4%
WACC
15.6%
ROIC − WACC
+557.8 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (11)
- Price CAGR 31.58%
- ROIC 573.5%
- Gross margin 54.3%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- ROE 41.5%
- Revenue growth 5Y 18.5%
- Earnings surprise, average 7.2%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.42
- Net margin trend 28.8% vs 26.8%
Failed (7)
- P/FCF 60.99
- P/B ratio 1,408.89
- Debt/equity ratio
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- PEG ratio 2.20
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Unavailable (8)
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend payout –
- Operating margin –
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- Share dilution (missing share count)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
No institutional filings reported for this company.
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Christophe D. Fouquet | President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management | 52 |
| Mr. Roger J. M. Dassen Ph.D. | Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board | 60 |
| Mr. Frederic J. M. Schneider-Maunoury | Executive VP, COO & Member of the Management Board | 64 |
| Mr. James P. Koonmen | Executive VP, Chief Customer Officer & Member of Management Board | 58 |
| Mr. Wayne R. Allan | Executive VP, Chief Strategic Sourcing & Procurement Officer and Member of Management Board | 58 |
| Mr. Marco J. A. Pieters | Executive VP, CTO & Member of Management Board | - |
| Jim Kavanagh | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Cristina Monteiro | Executive Vice President Human Resources & Organization | - |
| Mr. Ron Kool | Head of Business Performance Improvement | - |
| Herman Boom | Head of Strategic Sourcing & Procurement | - |
Documents
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much ASML moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 70% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 41.6%
- Volatility 90d
- 46.6%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 2.25Correlation 0.61
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -22.1%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.56%
Earnings reactions
How ASML moved around its past quarterly results.
No earnings releases recorded yet for ASML. This can happen with recent listings or with companies that do not file 8-K reports with the SEC.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on ASML and what the price did next.
- 10/14/2026PositiveASML Up on Supply Plans; BlackRock Reports Earnings | Stock Movers
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/14/2026PositiveASML, seduta tonica con rialzo previsioni sui ricavi e impegno per aumento capacità produttiva
- +1 day
- -2.9%
- +3 days
- -2.5%
- 10/14/2026NegativeUtili ASML a record €5B mentre la domanda AI supera l'offerta: perché il titolo è giù del 14%?
- +1 day
- -2.9%
- +3 days
- -2.5%
- 10/13/2026NegativeStocks Erase Gains After ASML, Dollar Declines: Markets Wrap
- +1 day
- -2.9%
- +3 days
- -2.5%
- 10/13/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -1.8%
- +3 days
- -4.5%
- 9/29/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +3.7%
- +3 days
- +2.3%
- 9/8/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +3.5%
- +3 days
- 0.0%
- 8/31/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 7/15/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +1.8%
- +3 days
- -0.4%
- 6/19/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +0.3%
- +3 days
- -6.8%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ASML.
- 5d agoNEUTRALNasdaq-100® Inside the Index: ASML (ASML)
ASML Holding N.V. is highlighted for its critical role in advanced chipmaking technology, particularly its EUV capacity and the upcoming High-NA adoption. The company's growth trajectory is intrinsically linked to the increasing demand for sophisticated logic and memory chips. This profile within the Nasdaq-100® series underscores ASML's strategic importance in the semiconductor supply chain, positioning it as a key player in enabling next-generation computing and artificial intelligence hardware. Investors should note its technological leadership and its dependence on the cyclical but high-growth semiconductor market.
- 10d agoPOSITIVEASML Up on Supply Plans; BlackRock Reports Earnings | Stock Movers
ASML Holding N.V. shares are experiencing a significant uplift following the company's announcement of plans to expand chip-making machine production over the next two years. Driven by escalating artificial intelligence expenditure, ASML anticipates its current supply capabilities will fall short of demand in 2027 and 2028. The company is actively exploring avenues to boost production capacity beyond the previously stated 30% increase for 2028. This strategic move signals ASML's commitment to capitalizing on the AI boom, potentially leading to increased revenue and market share, which is a positive development for investors.
- 11d agoPOSITIVEASML, seduta tonica con rialzo previsioni sui ricavi e impegno per aumento capacità produttiva
ASML Holding saw a strong trading session, gaining 2.1% on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. The company announced it will not be able to fully meet machinery demand, yet it raised its revenue forecasts and committed to increasing production capacity. This indicates robust demand for ASML's advanced lithography systems, crucial for semiconductor manufacturing. Investors are likely to view the raised forecasts and capacity expansion plans positively, suggesting continued growth and market leadership despite supply constraints. The news reinforces ASML's strategic importance in the global chip supply chain.
- 11d agoNEGATIVEUtili ASML a record €5B mentre la domanda AI supera l'offerta: perché il titolo è giù del 14%?
ASML Holding N.V. reported record Q3 sales and profits, with revenues up 55% YoY to €11.66 billion and net income more than doubling to €4.96 billion. Gross margin reached 57.5%, exceeding guidance. Despite these strong financials, the stock fell 14% due to the company's statement that AI-driven customer demand is outpacing its planned capacity until 2028. This supply-demand imbalance, while indicating robust future demand, suggests ASML cannot immediately meet all customer orders, potentially impacting near-term revenue growth and market sentiment.
- 11d agoNEGATIVEStocks Erase Gains After ASML, Dollar Declines: Markets Wrap
ASML Holding NV, a key supplier in the semiconductor industry, announced it cannot fully meet current demand. This statement has rekindled concerns regarding the artificial intelligence trade, leading to a reversal of earlier gains in Asian equity markets. The company's inability to satisfy demand, particularly in the context of AI's rapid expansion, suggests potential supply chain bottlenecks or production constraints that could impact the broader tech sector. Investors are now closely watching for further clarification on ASML's production capacity and its implications for AI chip manufacturers.
- 11d agoNEUTRALASML, cresce l'attesa per nuove indicazioni sul settore dei semiconduttori
ASML Holding N.V. is set to release its quarterly earnings tomorrow before market open, with anticipation building for insights into the semiconductor sector's performance. Investors are keenly awaiting the financial results, which are expected to provide crucial guidance on the industry's trajectory. The company's report is often a bellwether for the broader chip manufacturing landscape, influencing sentiment and investment decisions across related stocks and ETFs. The market's focus will be on revenue figures, order backlog, and management's outlook for the coming quarters.