Historical scenarios
Today's sector map and Fed rates, set beside past moments that resemble them. It shows what happened next: a historical comparison, not a forecast.
Today
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- TechnologyToday+6.3%
- EnergyToday+3.6%
- Consumer DefensiveToday+3.0%
- HealthcareToday+1.9%
- Basic MaterialsToday-1.7%
- Communication ServicesToday-2.3%
- Financial ServicesToday-5.2%
- Real EstateToday-6.7%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-6.9%
- UtilitiesToday-9.5%
- IndustrialsToday-11.6%
On the day shown, the market is split between a few leaders and a long list of laggards. Over twelve months Energy is far ahead of SPY (40.5 points) and sits only 1.3% below its twelve-month high, with 72.7% of its stocks above their long-term average. Technology has led over six months (13.5 points) but has slipped against SPY over the last month (-1.7 points). Consumer Defensive (9.2 points over one month) and Utilities (6.7 points) have bounced in the last month, which fits a more cautious tilt. This looks like a rotation inferred from prices and volumes, not from fund-flow data. Real Estate is the weakest area: 26.8% below its twelve-month high, with only 20% of its stocks above their long-term average. Industrials (-11.6 points over three months) and Consumer Cyclical (-6.9 points) have also lagged. The Fed funds rate is 3.88% and the direction is a pause, after a rise of 0.25 points over three months and a fall of 0.23 points over twelve months. The headlines are mixed and are context, not proof. They center on AI: AMD, Intel and memory-chip names rise, Nvidia is debated, and firms such as American Express link job cuts to AI.
Today's news
- Oct 23PositiveJPMorgan Expands Tokenized Money Market Funds To Solana
- Oct 23Oncologists Cheer Melanoma Data
- Oct 23Amazon cut 30,000 corporate jobs to focus on AI. Now it’s promising 30,000 entry-level roles in the UK by 2030
- Oct 23PositivePerché le azioni AMD e Intel sono in rialzo oggi?
- Oct 23PositiveAzioni Rubrik ai massimi per la domanda di AI, ma si forma un cuneo ascendente rischioso
- Oct 23An $8 billion Treasury break helped bring Meta’s tax rate to 2%. Now it has a week to answer senators about data center tax credits
- Oct 23Can Nvidia’s stock become a safe haven as Wall Street rethinks the AI trade?
- Oct 23NegativePerché le azioni Nvidia sono in rosso oggi: crescita vs avvertimento ribassista
- Oct 23NegativeAmerican Express taglia il 5% del personale e prepara l'AI
- Oct 23PositivePerché le azioni di Micron, SK Hynix e SanDisk sono in rialzo venerdì?
Feb 2024 – Aug 2024
Fed on hold at a high rate while leadership broadened beyond tech written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.3%Then+1.7%
- EnergyToday+3.6%Then+1.0%
- Consumer DefensiveToday+3.0%Then-3.7%
- HealthcareToday+1.9%Then-1.7%
- Basic MaterialsToday-1.7%Then-0.8%
- Communication ServicesToday-2.3%Then-3.8%
- Financial ServicesToday-5.2%Then-0.6%
- Real EstateToday-6.7%Then-4.3%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-6.9%Then-2.3%
- UtilitiesToday-9.5%Then-8.5%
- IndustrialsToday-11.6%Then+1.8%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 5.33%on hold
Aug 2023 – Nov 2023
Energy led while high rates squeezed rate-sensitive sectors, until the market turned written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.3%Then-3.2%
- EnergyToday+3.6%Then+3.7%
- Consumer DefensiveToday+3.0%Then-3.7%
- HealthcareToday+1.9%Then-4.7%
- Basic MaterialsToday-1.7%Then-1.1%
- Communication ServicesToday-2.3%Then-3.1%
- Financial ServicesToday-5.2%Then-2.1%
- Real EstateToday-6.7%Then-7.2%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-6.9%Then-8.0%
- UtilitiesToday-9.5%Then-1.3%
- IndustrialsToday-11.6%Then-3.1%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 5.33%rising
Jun 2018 – Dec 2018
Rate hikes and a tech slump pushed investors toward defensive sectors written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.3%Then-6.4%
- EnergyToday+3.6%Then-1.8%
- Consumer DefensiveToday+3.0%Then-0.1%
- HealthcareToday+1.9%Then+1.8%
- Basic MaterialsToday-1.7%Then-2.9%
- Communication ServicesToday-2.3%Then-2.2%
- Financial ServicesToday-5.2%Then-6.2%
- Real EstateToday-6.7%Then-10.5%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-6.9%Then-5.7%
- UtilitiesToday-9.5%Then+4.4%
- IndustrialsToday-11.6%Then-2.2%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 2.19%rising
Jun 2025 – Oct 2025
Tech leadership faded as the Fed paused and a rotation took hold written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.3%Then+5.3%
- EnergyToday+3.6%Then-7.3%
- Consumer DefensiveToday+3.0%Then-0.6%
- HealthcareToday+1.9%Then-5.4%
- Basic MaterialsToday-1.7%Then-2.2%
- Communication ServicesToday-2.3%Then+1.3%
- Financial ServicesToday-5.2%Then-0.6%
- Real EstateToday-6.7%Then-6.6%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-6.9%Then-2.1%
- UtilitiesToday-9.5%Then-0.3%
- IndustrialsToday-11.6%Then+5.4%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 4.33%on hold
Mar 2019 – Jul 2019
Defensive sectors led as the Fed paused and Energy fell behind written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.3%Then+12.7%
- EnergyToday+3.6%Then+6.0%
- Consumer DefensiveToday+3.0%Then-4.3%
- HealthcareToday+1.9%Then+6.6%
- Basic MaterialsToday-1.7%Then-6.1%
- Communication ServicesToday-2.3%Then+7.0%
- Financial ServicesToday-5.2%Then-0.6%
- Real EstateToday-6.7%Then+6.0%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-6.9%Then+3.7%
- UtilitiesToday-9.5%Then-6.7%
- IndustrialsToday-11.6%Then+1.9%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 2.41%on hold
Limits to keep in mind
- The history starts on October 18, 2016: there are no earlier episodes.
- The comparison uses stocks that are listed today: those that left the market in the past are missing, which can flatter the results.
- We do not have an archive of the news of the time for past periods: the stories are built on prices, volumes and rates computed by the platform, plus the AI's general knowledge of that period.
- Resembling the past does not mean repeating it: this page is neither a forecast nor investment advice.