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American Water Works Co Inc (AWK)

Overvalued
UtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterUnited States

Fundamental

58

Price

$142.75

Market Cap

$26.78B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

American Water Works is the largest publicly traded water and wastewater utility company in the United States. The company provides drinking water, wastewater, and related services to approximately 14 million people across 24 states through regulated utility subsidiaries and other service operations. The company operates geographic service territories in which rates and operations are regulated by state public utility commissions.

How it makes money

Revenue is generated through a rate-regulated utility model in which the company provides water and wastewater services to customers in regulated markets. The rate-setting mechanism allows the company to file for rate cases with state regulatory commissions to recover operating costs and earn an authorized return on invested capital. Revenue streams include base rates, infrastructure surcharges for system improvements, and miscellaneous utility charges for services such as meter reading and connection fees.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Wide

American Water possesses a wide moat supported by regulated monopoly positions in geographic service territories where customers have no alternative suppliers for essential water and wastewater services. The regulatory framework creates high barriers to entry through state licensing and franchises. The essential, non-discretionary nature of water service and the substantial sunk costs of the distribution infrastructure create extreme switching costs for customers. The company's established network of treatment facilities, pipes, and systems across 24 states represents a durable competitive advantage that cannot be easily replicated.

What drives demand

Defensive

American Water's demand exhibits defensive characteristics as water and wastewater services are essential, non-discretionary utilities that customers require regardless of economic conditions. Consumption is largely inelastic to business cycles. Long-term demand drivers include population growth in service territories, aging infrastructure replacement requirements spanning decades, regulatory mandates for water quality and system reliability, and climate resilience investments. The company benefits from secular infrastructure investment cycles rather than economic cyclicality.

Key risks

  • Regulatory and Rate Case Risk — Outcomes of rate cases before state regulatory commissions may not yield requested revenue adjustments or may result in lower authorized rates of return than anticipated. Regulatory commissions may deny rate requests or approve only partial increases, limiting the company's ability to recover costs and maintain returns during periods of inflation or rising capital requirements.
  • Capital Intensity and Financing Risk — The company requires substantial capital expenditures for system maintenance, replacement, and upgrades to meet regulatory standards and infrastructure aging. Rising interest rates increase borrowing costs, which may reduce profitability and the company's ability to generate shareholder returns. Dependence on capital markets for financing exposes the company to refinancing risk and market accessibility challenges.
  • Environmental Compliance and Water Supply Constraints — The company faces evolving environmental regulations including water quality standards, lead and copper rules, and emerging contaminant regulations that may require costly system upgrades and treatment modifications. Water supply constraints, particularly in California where operations depend on Carmel River diversions, create operational and financial challenges. Drought conditions and competing water demands may limit availability and increase treatment costs.
  • Litigation and Regulatory Investigation Risk — The company faces pending class action lawsuits and governmental investigations related to water quality, lead exposure, and operational practices. Adverse outcomes in litigation could result in material settlements, penalties, or operational restrictions that impact financial results.
  • Inflation and Cost Recovery Timing Risk — Rising costs for labor, materials, energy, and environmental compliance may increase operational expenses faster than the rate adjustment process can recover through new rates. Delays between cost increases and rate commission approvals create margin compression periods that pressure profitability.

Customer concentration

The filing does not disclose material customer concentration. American Water serves approximately 14 million customers across residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customer classes within its regulated service territories. The customer base is geographically and functionally diverse, with no single customer or group of customers representing a disproportionate share of revenues. The essential utility nature of water services and the regulated monopoly service structure inherently disperses customer revenue across millions of individual accounts.

The case for

Buyers argue that American Water benefits from a highly durable, defensible business model anchored by essential water and wastewater services with monopoly-like characteristics in geographic service territories. The rate-regulated framework ensures cost recovery and authorized returns on capital, providing predictable earnings and cash flows independent of business cycles. The company faces a multi-decade infrastructure replacement opportunity as aging systems nationwide require modernization and upgrades, creating sustained capital deployment potential with regulatory recovery mechanisms. Population growth in service territories and increasing environmental regulatory mandates drive organic demand expansion. The fragmented water utility market presents consolidation opportunities for acquisition and margin expansion. The combination of inflation-resistant tariff mechanisms and essential service demand positions the company to deliver stable dividend growth and resilient returns through economic cycles.

The case against

Sellers fear that regulatory execution risk poses a structural threat if state commissions consistently deny or significantly reduce rate increase requests, limiting the company's ability to maintain returns during inflationary periods. The capital-intensive nature of the business requires substantial ongoing investment, constraining free cash flow available for dividend increases and limiting total shareholder returns compared to less capital-dependent business models. Rising interest rates directly pressure profitability through increased borrowing costs for required capital expenditures. Environmental compliance costs may exceed management forecasts, while regulatory bodies may shift these burdens onto ratepayers more slowly than expected. Water supply constraints in certain regions, particularly California, create operational limitations and additional compliance costs. Pending litigation and regulatory investigations create uncertainty around potential penalties and operational restrictions. Inflation in labor and materials costs may outpace regulatory rate recovery timelines, creating periods of margin compression. The company's dependence on regulatory approval for material decisions introduces policy risk if regulatory attitudes shift toward stricter cost controls or lower authorized returns.

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 22.1Score: 62Market cap: $11.56B

The second-largest investor-owned water and wastewater utility in the United States, bidding against American Water for the same municipal systems and acquisitions across overlapping states such as Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio and Texas, although the two agreed an all-stock merger in October 2025 that has not yet closed.

California Water Service GroupCWT

Third-largest publicly traded investor-owned water utility in the country, serving roughly two million people in California, Hawaii, New Mexico and Washington and competing with American Water for regulated water customers and for municipal systems put up for sale in the West.

American States Water CompanyAWR

Through Golden State Water it serves regulated water customers in California, and through American States Utility Services it bids for the same 50-year US Department of Defense privatisation contracts on military bases that American Water's Military Services Group depends on.

H2O America (formerly SJW Group)HTO

A multi-state regulated water utility serving California, Texas, Connecticut and Maine, competing for the same regulated household and business water customers and for the same small municipal systems coming to market.

Middlesex Water CompanyMSEX

Operates regulated water and wastewater systems in New Jersey and Delaware, the same territory where New Jersey American Water is American Water's single largest state business, and also sells contract operations to municipalities there.

Veolia Environnement S.A.VIE

Its North American arm, enlarged by the acquisition of Suez's international business, runs regulated water utilities and municipal operation-and-maintenance contracts in the United States, chasing the same towns and industrial customers that American Water targets.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$5.27B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$1.13B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$-1.07B

Total Equity

$10.84B

Total Liabilities

$24.61B

Current Ratio

0.52

Interest Coverage

3.00

Debt/EBITDA

5.79

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Regulated utilityOvervalued

Fair Value

$94.08

Current Price

$142.75

Margin of Safety

-51.7%

Fair Value Range

$61.15 - $127.01

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$140.36
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$16.20
Earnings multiple (P/E):$119.81
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$98.34
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):$84.38
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:Not applicable to this type of company
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Last Earnings Surprise:+3.38%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

24.74

ROE

10.3%

P/B Ratio

2.43

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

4.7%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

4.7%

WACC

6.1%

ROIC − WACC

-1.5 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (14)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 6.17%
  • P/B ratio 2.43
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Operating margin 37.1%
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 10.2%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 6.4%
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.07
  • Share dilution 0.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (7)

  • ROIC 4.6%
  • Positive free cash flow
  • Current ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings surprise, average -1.8%
  • PEG ratio 3.02

Unavailable (5)

  • Gross margin –
  • P/FCF –
  • Dividend payout –
  • CapEx intensity
  • Net margin trend (invalid data)

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

2.07

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

0.1%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. John C. GriffithCEO, President & Director58
Mr. David M. BowlerExecutive VP & CFO47
Ms. Cheryl D. NortonExecutive VP & COO60
Mr. Stacy A. MitchellExecutive VP & General Counsel49
Ms. Maureen DuffyExecutive VP of Communications & External Affairs55
Ms. Melissa K. WikleSenior VP & Chief Accounting Officer59
Ms. Deborah A. DegillioChief Technology & Information Officer53
Mr. Aaron Musgrave CPAVice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Lori SuttonExecutive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer52
Mr. Nicholas Santillo Jr., C.P.P.Vice President of Digital Infrastructure & Security and Interim Head of Innovation & Technology-

Audit Risk

5

Board Risk

1

Compensation Risk

1

Shareholder Rights Risk

4

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-18

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-29

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-17

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much AWK moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityLow

More volatile than 16% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
24.1%
Volatility 90d
23.4%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
-0.47Correlation -0.26
Max drawdown (12m)
-15.0%
ATR (14d, % of price)
2.11%

Earnings reactions

How AWK moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Oct 28, 2026 · In 4 days · After the close

EPS estimate: 2.04Revenue estimate: $1.6B

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 1.2% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Jul 29, 2026After the close1.561.61+3.4% +1.4% -0.9% -2.8%
Apr 29, 2026After the close1.111.01-9.3% +2.4% -2.7% -4.8%
Feb 18, 2026After the close1.271.22-3.5% +0.7% +0.2% +2.3%
Oct 29, 2025After the close1.901.94+2.3% +0.1% -2.6% +0.7%
Jul 30, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-0.8% +0.4% +1.6%
Apr 30, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-1.4% -0.4% +0.7%
Feb 19, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+1.7% +0.6% +5.6%
Oct 30, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+1.6% +1.8% -1.6%
Jul 31, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+0.4% +1.5% +1.0%
May 1, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-1.1% +0.7% +6.2%
Feb 14, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+1.5% +3.1% -0.7%
Nov 1, 2023After the closen/an/an/a+1.2% +4.8% +6.2%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on AWK and what the price did next.

No positive or negative news on AWK has been archived yet.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for AWK.

No recent news for AWK.