Baxter International Inc (BAX)
UndervaluedFundamental
41
Price
$25.30
Market Cap
$12.77B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Baxter International Inc. is a global healthcare company providing essential medical devices, therapies, and pharmaceuticals to hospitals, clinics, and patients in over 100 countries. The company operates through three segments serving acute care, hospital systems, and pharmaceutical markets, with a portfolio focused on life-critical products including intravenous solutions, connected care technologies, and injectable medications.
How it makes money
Baxter sells products through multiple channels: direct relationships with hospital systems and clinics, group purchasing organizations (GPOs), integrated delivery networks (IDNs), medical distributors, and direct-to-patient home infusion services. Approximately 55% of revenue comes from the United States, with 45% from international markets across more than 100 countries.
Revenue by segment
Delivers sterile intravenous solutions, infusion pumps and administration sets, parenteral nutrition therapies, and surgical hemostats and sealants to hospitals and clinics. Serves both acute care settings and home-based therapy programs globally.
Provides connected care solutions including smart hospital beds, patient monitoring systems, respiratory health devices, and diagnostic technologies that integrate clinical data to support hospital operations and improve patient outcomes.
Manufactures and distributes injectable pharmaceutical products including generic injectables, anesthetics, and pharmaceutical compounding services for hospitals and healthcare facilities.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowBaxter benefits from scale through operations in over 100 countries and breadth of product offerings that create switching costs for hospitals. The company holds leading positions in IV solutions and connected care technologies. However, the moat is narrow because pricing power is significantly constrained by consolidated buyer power of group purchasing organizations and integrated delivery networks, creating leverage for customers that offsets Baxter's scale advantages. Intense competition from specialized competitors and generic alternatives limits pricing flexibility.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalDemand for Baxter's products is driven by demographic and clinical trends that provide underlying growth resilience: the global population aged 60 and older is growing from 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion by 2030, driving higher incidence of chronic diseases and need for continuous therapies. The global IV therapy market is projected to grow approximately 5.5% annually through 2029, driven by these structural factors rather than purely cyclical economic conditions. However, healthcare spending can be affected by economic downturns and hospital budget cycles, creating moderate cyclicality.
Key risks
- Pricing Pressure and Cost Recovery Limitations — Group purchasing organizations, integrated delivery networks, and government procurement authorities exert ongoing pricing pressure that limits Baxter's ability to raise prices. In 2022-2024, the company was unable to fully offset raw material and component cost increases through customer pricing adjustments, resulting in margin compression.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Cost Inflation — Global supply chain disruptions continue to impact production, with shortages of raw materials and critical components, production delays, and increased costs. The company faces single-source supplier dependencies for certain materials, and qualifying alternative suppliers creates operational risks and delays.
- Generic Competition and Patent Exposure — The pharmaceutical segment faces exposure to generic competition and patent litigation. Generic injectable products and competitive alternatives can erode pricing and market share in key therapeutic areas, particularly as patents expire on marketed products.
- International Operations and Currency Risk — With 45% of revenue from international markets, Baxter faces exposure to foreign currency fluctuations, regulatory changes, geopolitical events, varying reimbursement policies, and differing market dynamics across regions. Currency headwinds can reduce reported revenues and operating results.
Customer concentration
Baxter has significant customer concentration risk concentrated through group purchasing organizations and integrated delivery networks rather than individual customer concentration. The company has purchasing agreements with several major U.S. GPOs that collectively represent a substantial portion of U.S. revenue. While no single customer represents more than a small percentage of total revenue, the consolidated buying power of major hospital systems and GPOs creates effective concentration risk and pricing leverage concentrated among a limited number of very large buyers. The United States represents 55% of consolidated revenue.
The case for
Buyers argue that Baxter is well-positioned for margin expansion as major GPO contracts renegotiate in 2025-2026 with improved pricing flexibility to offset future inflation and protect margins from cost volatility. Post-divestiture stranded overhead costs will decline, contributing approximately 250 basis points of margin uplift through 2027. The company targets net leverage of 3.0x by end-2025, enabling future strategic acquisitions and investment in high-growth connected care solutions. Strong demographic and clinical fundamentals support mid-single-digit annual growth in core IV solutions, with the company holding leading market positions in IV therapies and hospital-connected care technologies. Supply chain normalization should also ease cost pressures.
The case against
Sellers fear that structural pricing pressure will persist despite GPO contract negotiations, as healthcare cost containment remains a priority for hospital systems and consolidated buyers. Supply chain cost inflation may continue to erode margins faster than the company can improve manufacturing efficiencies. The Healthcare Systems & Technologies segment declined 2% year-over-year in 2024, raising concerns about demand for connected care investments during hospital budget constraints and uncertainty about revenue growth in this higher-margin segment. High leverage following divestitures and net losses of $649 million in 2024 limit financial flexibility for aggressive investment or shareholder returns. Generic competition intensifies in injectable pharmaceuticals. Execution risk exists on margin improvement initiatives and deleveraging targets, which could delay profitability recovery.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
ICU Medical sells IV solutions, infusion pumps and administration sets to the same US hospital pharmacies and supply contracts that Baxter's Medical Products & Therapies segment depends on.
BD competes head-on with Baxter for hospital infusion contracts with its Alaris smart pumps, IV sets and injectable drug delivery lines.
Stryker is the closest rival to Baxter's Hillrom business for smart hospital beds, patient monitoring and operating-room equipment bought by the same acute-care hospitals.
The German family-owned group offers the same sterile IV fluids, infusion pumps and parenteral nutrition range, and is Baxter's main rival for European hospital tenders.
Fresenius Kabi competes with Baxter both in IV fluids and parenteral nutrition and in specialty injectable generics sold to hospital pharmacies.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$11.47B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$-1.06B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$332M
Total Equity
$6.13B
Total Liabilities
$13.95B
Current Ratio
1.95
Interest Coverage
0.93
Debt/EBITDA
0.31
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$64.52
Current Price
$25.30
Margin of Safety
+60.8%
Fair Value Range
$41.94 - $87.10
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-15.6%
P/B Ratio
2.11
P/FCF
38.46
Gross Margin
30.1%
ROIC
-1.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-1.3%
WACC
8.3%
ROIC − WACC
-9.6 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (10)
- Gross margin 30.1%
- P/B ratio 2.11
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- Earnings surprise, average 15.7%
- Share dilution 0.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (12)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR -5.65%
- ROIC -1.3%
- P/FCF 38.46
- Operating margin -2.4%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE -16.6%
- Revenue growth 5Y -0.8%
- Net margin trend -9.3% vs -1.4%
Unavailable (4)
- Dividend payout –
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Andrew P. Hider | CEO, Pres., Interim Group Pres. of Medical Products & Therapies and Director | 48 |
| Mr. David S. Rosenbloom | Executive VP & General Counsel | 65 |
| Ms. Maria Soriano | Group President of Infusion Therapies & Platforms | - |
| Mr. John Terence Rogers | Executive VP & CFO | 56 |
| Mr. Bernie Heine | Interim Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | 39 |
| Mr. Charles Patel | Senior VP & Chief Information Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Kevin Moran | Vice President & Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Stacey Eisen | SVP, Chief Communications Officer & Corporate Marketing and President of Baxter Foundation | - |
| Ms. Cynthia Carlisle | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 50 |
| Mr. James W. Borzi | Executive VP & Chief Supply Chain Officer | 62 |
Audit Risk
3
Board Risk
2
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-12
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-30
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-19
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much BAX moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 55% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 27.0%
- Volatility 90d
- 38.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.11Correlation 0.33
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -31.8%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.99%
Earnings reactions
How BAX moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 29, 2026 · In 5 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 0.52Revenue estimate: $2.9B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 7.3% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Before the open | 0.37 | 0.56 | +51.5% | +17.4% | +8.0% | +10.3% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Before the open | 0.31 | 0.36 | +15.9% | +4.9% | +4.0% | +0.5% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Before the open | 0.54 | 0.44 | -18.7% | -12.3% | -16.0% | -4.2% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Before the open | 0.60 | 0.69 | +14.2% | -15.5% | -14.5% | -19.9% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -15.3% | -22.4% | -19.8% |
| May 1, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.1% | -1.6% | -1.4% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +8.0% | +8.5% | +14.4% |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.6% | -3.9% | -12.0% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.0% | +6.6% | +6.6% |
| May 2, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.1% | -8.5% | -11.4% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.0% | +2.7% | +0.7% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.3% | +4.5% | +3.8% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on BAX and what the price did next.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for BAX.