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Baxter International Inc (BAX)

Undervalued
HealthcareMedical Instruments & SuppliesUnited States

Fundamental

41

Price

$25.30

Market Cap

$12.77B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Baxter International Inc. is a global healthcare company providing essential medical devices, therapies, and pharmaceuticals to hospitals, clinics, and patients in over 100 countries. The company operates through three segments serving acute care, hospital systems, and pharmaceutical markets, with a portfolio focused on life-critical products including intravenous solutions, connected care technologies, and injectable medications.

How it makes money

Baxter sells products through multiple channels: direct relationships with hospital systems and clinics, group purchasing organizations (GPOs), integrated delivery networks (IDNs), medical distributors, and direct-to-patient home infusion services. Approximately 55% of revenue comes from the United States, with 45% from international markets across more than 100 countries.

Revenue by segment

Medical Products & Therapies49.3%

Delivers sterile intravenous solutions, infusion pumps and administration sets, parenteral nutrition therapies, and surgical hemostats and sealants to hospitals and clinics. Serves both acute care settings and home-based therapy programs globally.

Healthcare Systems & Technologies27.9%

Provides connected care solutions including smart hospital beds, patient monitoring systems, respiratory health devices, and diagnostic technologies that integrate clinical data to support hospital operations and improve patient outcomes.

Pharmaceuticals22.8%

Manufactures and distributes injectable pharmaceutical products including generic injectables, anesthetics, and pharmaceutical compounding services for hospitals and healthcare facilities.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

Baxter benefits from scale through operations in over 100 countries and breadth of product offerings that create switching costs for hospitals. The company holds leading positions in IV solutions and connected care technologies. However, the moat is narrow because pricing power is significantly constrained by consolidated buyer power of group purchasing organizations and integrated delivery networks, creating leverage for customers that offsets Baxter's scale advantages. Intense competition from specialized competitors and generic alternatives limits pricing flexibility.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Demand for Baxter's products is driven by demographic and clinical trends that provide underlying growth resilience: the global population aged 60 and older is growing from 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion by 2030, driving higher incidence of chronic diseases and need for continuous therapies. The global IV therapy market is projected to grow approximately 5.5% annually through 2029, driven by these structural factors rather than purely cyclical economic conditions. However, healthcare spending can be affected by economic downturns and hospital budget cycles, creating moderate cyclicality.

Key risks

  • Pricing Pressure and Cost Recovery Limitations — Group purchasing organizations, integrated delivery networks, and government procurement authorities exert ongoing pricing pressure that limits Baxter's ability to raise prices. In 2022-2024, the company was unable to fully offset raw material and component cost increases through customer pricing adjustments, resulting in margin compression.
  • Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Cost Inflation — Global supply chain disruptions continue to impact production, with shortages of raw materials and critical components, production delays, and increased costs. The company faces single-source supplier dependencies for certain materials, and qualifying alternative suppliers creates operational risks and delays.
  • Generic Competition and Patent Exposure — The pharmaceutical segment faces exposure to generic competition and patent litigation. Generic injectable products and competitive alternatives can erode pricing and market share in key therapeutic areas, particularly as patents expire on marketed products.
  • International Operations and Currency Risk — With 45% of revenue from international markets, Baxter faces exposure to foreign currency fluctuations, regulatory changes, geopolitical events, varying reimbursement policies, and differing market dynamics across regions. Currency headwinds can reduce reported revenues and operating results.

Customer concentration

Baxter has significant customer concentration risk concentrated through group purchasing organizations and integrated delivery networks rather than individual customer concentration. The company has purchasing agreements with several major U.S. GPOs that collectively represent a substantial portion of U.S. revenue. While no single customer represents more than a small percentage of total revenue, the consolidated buying power of major hospital systems and GPOs creates effective concentration risk and pricing leverage concentrated among a limited number of very large buyers. The United States represents 55% of consolidated revenue.

The case for

Buyers argue that Baxter is well-positioned for margin expansion as major GPO contracts renegotiate in 2025-2026 with improved pricing flexibility to offset future inflation and protect margins from cost volatility. Post-divestiture stranded overhead costs will decline, contributing approximately 250 basis points of margin uplift through 2027. The company targets net leverage of 3.0x by end-2025, enabling future strategic acquisitions and investment in high-growth connected care solutions. Strong demographic and clinical fundamentals support mid-single-digit annual growth in core IV solutions, with the company holding leading market positions in IV therapies and hospital-connected care technologies. Supply chain normalization should also ease cost pressures.

The case against

Sellers fear that structural pricing pressure will persist despite GPO contract negotiations, as healthcare cost containment remains a priority for hospital systems and consolidated buyers. Supply chain cost inflation may continue to erode margins faster than the company can improve manufacturing efficiencies. The Healthcare Systems & Technologies segment declined 2% year-over-year in 2024, raising concerns about demand for connected care investments during hospital budget constraints and uncertainty about revenue growth in this higher-margin segment. High leverage following divestitures and net losses of $649 million in 2024 limit financial flexibility for aggressive investment or shareholder returns. Generic competition intensifies in injectable pharmaceuticals. Execution risk exists on margin improvement initiatives and deleveraging targets, which could delay profitability recovery.

Segment figures from fiscal year 2024Sources: BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC Form 10-K FY2024

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 140.0Score: 63Market cap: $4.02B

ICU Medical sells IV solutions, infusion pumps and administration sets to the same US hospital pharmacies and supply contracts that Baxter's Medical Products & Therapies segment depends on.

P/E: 60.1Score: 70Market cap: $52.94B

BD competes head-on with Baxter for hospital infusion contracts with its Alaris smart pumps, IV sets and injectable drug delivery lines.

P/E: 31.8Score: 76Market cap: $114.15B

Stryker is the closest rival to Baxter's Hillrom business for smart hospital beds, patient monitoring and operating-room equipment bought by the same acute-care hospitals.

B. Braun SENot tracked

The German family-owned group offers the same sterile IV fluids, infusion pumps and parenteral nutrition range, and is Baxter's main rival for European hospital tenders.

Fresenius Kabi AGNot tracked

Fresenius Kabi competes with Baxter both in IV fluids and parenteral nutrition and in specialty injectable generics sold to hospital pharmacies.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$11.47B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$-1.06B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$332M

Total Equity

$6.13B

Total Liabilities

$13.95B

Current Ratio

1.95

Interest Coverage

0.93

Debt/EBITDA

0.31

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$64.52

Current Price

$25.30

Margin of Safety

+60.8%

Fair Value Range

$41.94 - $87.10

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$27.92
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$119.43
Earnings multiple (P/E):Not enough data to compute it
Graham growth formula:Not enough data to compute it
Earnings power value (EPV):Not enough data to compute it
Justified P/B:Not enough data to compute it
Dividend discount (Gordon):$12.26
P/FFO, funds from operations:$0.74
Mid-cycle earnings:$32.64
Revenue multiple:$83.67
Last Earnings Surprise:+51.52%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

-

ROE

-15.6%

P/B Ratio

2.11

P/FCF

38.46

Gross Margin

30.1%

ROIC

-1.3%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-1.3%

WACC

8.3%

ROIC − WACC

-9.6 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (10)

  • Gross margin 30.1%
  • P/B ratio 2.11
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Positive free cash flow
  • Current ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • Earnings surprise, average 15.7%
  • Share dilution 0.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (12)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR -5.65%
  • ROIC -1.3%
  • P/FCF 38.46
  • Operating margin -2.4%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest coverage
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE -16.6%
  • Revenue growth 5Y -0.8%
  • Net margin trend -9.3% vs -1.4%

Unavailable (4)

  • Dividend payout –
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

-

Low quality: investigate accounting

Share Dilution

0.1%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Andrew P. HiderCEO, Pres., Interim Group Pres. of Medical Products & Therapies and Director48
Mr. David S. RosenbloomExecutive VP & General Counsel65
Ms. Maria SorianoGroup President of Infusion Therapies & Platforms-
Mr. John Terence RogersExecutive VP & CFO56
Mr. Bernie HeineInterim Chief Accounting Officer & Controller39
Mr. Charles PatelSenior VP & Chief Information Officer55
Mr. Kevin MoranVice President & Head of Investor Relations-
Ms. Stacey EisenSVP, Chief Communications Officer & Corporate Marketing and President of Baxter Foundation-
Ms. Cynthia CarlisleExecutive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer50
Mr. James W. BorziExecutive VP & Chief Supply Chain Officer62

Audit Risk

3

Board Risk

2

Compensation Risk

10

Shareholder Rights Risk

2

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-12

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-30

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-08-19

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much BAX moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 55% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
27.0%
Volatility 90d
38.2%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
1.11Correlation 0.33
Max drawdown (12m)
-31.8%
ATR (14d, % of price)
2.99%

Earnings reactions

How BAX moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Oct 29, 2026 · In 5 days · Before the open

EPS estimate: 0.52Revenue estimate: $2.9B

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 7.3% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Jul 30, 2026Before the open0.370.56+51.5% +17.4% +8.0% +10.3%
Apr 30, 2026Before the open0.310.36+15.9% +4.9% +4.0% +0.5%
Feb 12, 2026Before the open0.540.44-18.7% -12.3% -16.0% -4.2%
Oct 30, 2025Before the open0.600.69+14.2% -15.5% -14.5% -19.9%
Jul 31, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a-15.3% -22.4% -19.8%
May 1, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a+3.1% -1.6% -1.4%
Feb 20, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a+8.0% +8.5% +14.4%
Nov 8, 2024Before the openn/an/an/a-1.6% -3.9% -12.0%
Aug 6, 2024Before the openn/an/an/a+1.0% +6.6% +6.6%
May 2, 2024Before the openn/an/an/a-3.1% -8.5% -11.4%
Feb 8, 2024Before the openn/an/an/a-1.0% +2.7% +0.7%
Nov 2, 2023Before the openn/an/an/a+0.3% +4.5% +3.8%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on BAX and what the price did next.

No positive or negative news on BAX has been archived yet.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for BAX.

No recent news for BAX.