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CME Group Inc. (CME)

Undervalued
Financial ServicesFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesUnited States

Fundamental

76

Price

$305.71

Market Cap

$105.67B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

CME Group runs the exchanges where traders buy and sell standardized futures and options contracts on interest rates, stock indexes, currencies, energy, agricultural commodities and metals — agreements to buy or sell something at a set price on a future date. It does not take positions itself: it provides the marketplace, matches buyers with sellers, and, through its clearing house, guarantees that both sides of every trade get paid even if one of them defaults.

How it makes money

Most revenue comes from a small fee charged on every contract traded and cleared, so revenue rises with trading volume rather than with the direction prices move — a volatile market that makes people trade more is good for CME even if prices are falling. A second stream comes from selling the market data CME's exchanges generate to traders, banks and data vendors, plus investment income earned on the cash collateral customers post to guarantee their trades.

Competitive moat

Network effects · Wide

A futures contract is only useful if enough other traders use the identical contract, because that shared pool of buyers and sellers lets anyone enter or exit a position quickly at a fair price. Once a contract accumulates that liquidity at CME, a rival exchange offering the same contract cannot easily attract traders away — a network effect that has kept CME's benchmark contracts dominant for decades.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Trading volume, and so revenue, rises when markets are volatile and traders need to hedge or speculate on fast-moving prices, and can soften in calm, low-volatility periods regardless of the broader economic cycle. Interest rate policy is a particularly large swing factor, since CME's interest rate contracts are its single biggest product line and trading in them picks up whenever rate expectations are in flux.

Key risks

  • Dependence on trading volume and volatility — Revenue depends on how much trading happens on CME's exchanges; a sustained period of low volatility or reduced trading activity directly reduces transaction fee revenue, the largest part of the business.
  • Competition from other exchanges and clearing venues — Rival exchanges, and the possibility of a competing venue attracting enough liquidity in one of CME's core contracts, could draw trading volume away from CME's markets over time.
  • Regulatory risk — CME's exchanges and clearing house operate under close regulatory oversight in the US and abroad; a change in rules on trading, clearing or capital requirements could raise costs or restrict how the business operates.
  • Concentration in interest rate products — A large share of CME's revenue comes from interest rate futures and options; a structural shift in these products, or in how rate risk is hedged, would affect results more than the diversification across asset classes might suggest.

The case for

Buyers argue that the liquidity concentrated in CME's benchmark futures contracts is nearly impossible for a new exchange to replicate, that rising market volatility from any source tends to increase trading volume and revenue, and that a fee-per-contract model scales with almost no added cost as volume grows.

The case against

Sellers fear that a sustained calm market reduces the trading volume CME's revenue depends on, that regulators could reshape how derivatives trading and clearing work in ways CME cannot control, and that a large share of results still rests on interest rate products whose trading patterns could shift structurally.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 23.0Score: 71Market cap: $88.53B

CME names ICE first among its rivals: both run futures and options exchanges plus their own clearing houses, competing head-on in energy, interest-rate and equity-index contracts for the same institutional traders.

P/E: 26.5Score: 80Market cap: $32.89B

Cboe's index options and volatility franchise (SPX, VIX), together with Cboe Clear, competes for the same US derivatives order flow and clearing fees that CME earns on its equity-index and futures complex.

Deutsche Börse AG (Eurex)DB1

Through Eurex, Deutsche Börse is the main venue for euro-denominated interest-rate and equity-index futures and offers clearing that competes for the global banks and asset managers who also trade CME's rate complex.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (香港交易及結算所有限公司)0388

HKEX runs Asian equity-index, currency and commodity derivatives (including the LME metals franchise) with its own clearing houses, competing with CME for Asian-hours volume and for metals and FX hedgers.

Euronext N.V.ENX

Euronext operates European equity-index and commodity derivatives markets and its own clearing house, competing with CME for European listed-derivatives trading and clearing revenue.

FMX Futures Exchange, L.P.Not tracked

Backed by BGC Group and a consortium of banks, FMX targets exactly CME's core franchise — US Treasury and SOFR interest-rate futures — offering LCH clearing to pull that liquidity away.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$6.77B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$4.29B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$4.19B

Total Equity

$28.73B

Total Liabilities

$169.70B

Current Ratio

1.02

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

0.89

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$783.38

Current Price

$305.71

Margin of Safety

+61.0%

Fair Value Range

$509.20 - $1057.56

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$292.94
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$2259.58
Earnings multiple (P/E):$256.50
Graham growth formula:$391.65
Earnings power value (EPV):$288.92
Justified P/B:$161.28
Dividend discount (Gordon):$147.38
P/FFO, funds from operations:$1003.48
Mid-cycle earnings:$675.62
Revenue multiple:$91.03
Last Earnings Surprise:+1.79%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

25.93

ROE

14.2%

P/B Ratio

0.77

P/FCF

4.84

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

9.7%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

9.7%

WACC

7.7%

ROIC − WACC

+2.0 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (19)

  • Price CAGR 8.91%
  • ROIC 9.7%
  • P/FCF 4.84
  • P/B ratio 0.77
  • Operating margin 65.1%
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 15.6%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 18.7%
  • PEG ratio 1.76
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.01
  • Share dilution 0.1%
  • Net margin trend 63.3% vs 58.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (5)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -1.60%
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Earnings surprise, average 0.3%

Unavailable (3)

  • Gross margin –
  • Dividend payout –
  • Interest coverage

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

1.01

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

0.1%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Terrence A. DuffyChairman & CEO67
Ms. Lynne C. FitzpatrickSenior MD, President & CFO47
Mr. Sunil CutinhoChief Information Officer53
Mr. Derek L. SammannSenior MD & Global Head of Commodities Markets57
Ms. Julie M. WinklerSenior MD & Chief Commercial Officer50
Ms. Suzanne SpragueSenior MD, Group COO & Global Head of Clearing-
Mr. Jack TobinMD & Chief Accounting Officer61
Adam MinickInvestor Contact-
Mr. Jonathan L. Marcus J.D.Senior MD & General Counsel-
Ms. Anita LiskeySenior Managing Director of Corporate Marketing & Communications60

Audit Risk

1

Board Risk

9

Compensation Risk

8

Shareholder Rights Risk

10

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-26

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-10-23

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-21

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much CME moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityLow

More volatile than 25% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
23.4%
Volatility 90d
26.6%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
-0.34Correlation -0.18
Max drawdown (12m)
-33.0%
ATR (14d, % of price)
2.03%

Earnings reactions

How CME moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

No upcoming release on the calendar.

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 0.6% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Oct 21, 2026Before the open2.993.02+1.0% +0.2% +0.2% n/a
Jul 22, 2026Before the open2.942.99+1.8% +4.3% +5.0% +9.5%
Apr 22, 2026Before the open3.403.36-1.2% -3.3% +0.5% 0.0%
Feb 4, 2026Before the open2.772.770.0% -0.2% +0.5% +4.7%
Oct 22, 2025Before the open2.662.68+0.8% -1.8% -0.3% -0.8%
Jul 23, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a-0.2% +0.7% 0.0%
Apr 23, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a-3.4% -1.5% +2.6%
Feb 12, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a+1.7% +3.0% +3.7%
Oct 23, 2024Before the openn/an/an/a-2.3% +0.4% +0.4%
Jul 24, 2024Before the openn/an/an/a+1.4% -0.1% -0.1%
Apr 24, 2024Before the openn/an/an/a-0.5% -1.9% -3.3%
Feb 14, 2024Before the openn/an/an/a+1.5% +3.7% +3.6%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on CME and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for CME.

  • 1d agoPOSITIVE
    CME Posts Record Q3 Revenue As Crypto Derivatives Push Continues

    CME Group Inc. announced record third-quarter revenue of approximately $1.74 billion, signaling robust performance driven in part by its cryptocurrency derivatives business. While the company did not break out specific crypto revenue figures, the overall revenue surge indicates strong market activity and demand for its derivative products. This record revenue highlights CME's strategic positioning in a growing market segment, potentially attracting further investor interest and reinforcing its market leadership. Investors should note the positive trend, even with limited granular data on crypto's exact contribution.

  • 3d agoNEGATIVE
    CME Group debole nel pre-market nonostante i conti oltre le attese

    CME Group Inc. is trading down approximately 1% in pre-market activity despite reporting third-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations. The company announced total revenues of $1.74 billion for the quarter. While the earnings beat suggests operational strength, the pre-market decline indicates that market sentiment may be influenced by other factors or that the positive earnings news has already been priced in, leading to profit-taking or a lack of further buying interest.

  • 5d agoNEUTRAL
    CME's Terry Duffy on the Disconcerting State of Finance Regulation

    CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy expressed concerns regarding the current state of financial regulation, suggesting it is becoming overly complex and potentially hindering market efficiency. Duffy's remarks, made during an interview, highlighted a perceived lack of clarity and consistency in regulatory frameworks across different jurisdictions. While not directly impacting CME's operations in the short term, such commentary from a major exchange operator could signal potential future challenges or opportunities related to regulatory changes. Investors will monitor how these sentiments translate into policy discussions and their potential effects on trading volumes and operational costs.

  • 22d agoPOSITIVE
    CME Group volumi medi giornalieri da record a settembre e nel terzo trimestre

    CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, reported record-breaking average daily volumes (ADV) for September 2026, reaching 31.8 million contracts. This also marks a new record for the third quarter. The strong performance indicates robust trading activity and high demand for CME's platforms. For investors, these record volumes suggest increased market participation and potentially higher transaction-based revenues for CME Group, reinforcing its market leadership and financial outlook.

  • 9/3/2026NEUTRAL
    CFTC files to dismiss CME lawsuit over crypto perpetual futures

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit brought by CME Group concerning crypto perpetual futures. CFTC lawyers characterized the suit as "much ado about nothing," asserting that CME Group lacks the legal standing to bring the case and refuting its claims. This legal maneuver by the CFTC aims to halt the proceedings, suggesting the regulator believes the CME Group's arguments are unfounded. The outcome could set precedents for regulatory oversight of crypto derivatives.

  • 8/21/2026NEUTRAL
    CME CEO Spars With CFTC Chair About Prediction Market Oversight

    CME Group CEO has urged the CFTC to enhance oversight of prediction markets, citing concerns about potential manipulation as these platforms rapidly expand. The call highlights a growing tension between financial regulators and innovative trading venues. While the CME, a major derivatives marketplace, benefits from robust regulatory frameworks, the rapid ascent of prediction markets presents new challenges for market integrity. Investors in CME should monitor regulatory developments closely, as increased oversight could impact the competitive landscape for derivatives and alternative trading platforms.

  • 8/5/2026NEGATIVE
    CME, FanDuel Venture Falters As Prediction Startups Race Ahead

    CME Group Inc. and FanDuel are reportedly scaling back their joint venture focused on prediction markets. The initiative, aimed at competing with burgeoning prediction startups, has failed to gain significant traction. This lack of progress in a rapidly growing sector, which poses a challenge to traditional financial exchanges and sports betting operators, suggests a missed opportunity for CME. Investors may view this as a setback in their diversification efforts into alternative betting and financial products.

  • 7/29/2026NEUTRAL
    FIA CEO on Prediction Market 'Disruption,' Regulation

    CME Group is set to launch single-stock futures, enabling investors to hedge or speculate on over 50 major US companies. These cash-settled contracts will offer leverage without the complexities of options, tied to the closing prices of the underlying stocks. FIA CEO Walt Lukken views the expansion of prediction markets and new products like these as beneficial for developing robust regulatory frameworks within the financial industry. The move signals an evolving landscape for derivatives and speculative trading, potentially increasing market activity and investor participation in new asset classes.