CME Group Inc. (CME)
UndervaluedFundamental
76
Price
$305.71
Market Cap
$105.67B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
CME Group runs the exchanges where traders buy and sell standardized futures and options contracts on interest rates, stock indexes, currencies, energy, agricultural commodities and metals — agreements to buy or sell something at a set price on a future date. It does not take positions itself: it provides the marketplace, matches buyers with sellers, and, through its clearing house, guarantees that both sides of every trade get paid even if one of them defaults.
How it makes money
Most revenue comes from a small fee charged on every contract traded and cleared, so revenue rises with trading volume rather than with the direction prices move — a volatile market that makes people trade more is good for CME even if prices are falling. A second stream comes from selling the market data CME's exchanges generate to traders, banks and data vendors, plus investment income earned on the cash collateral customers post to guarantee their trades.
Competitive moat
Network effects · WideA futures contract is only useful if enough other traders use the identical contract, because that shared pool of buyers and sellers lets anyone enter or exit a position quickly at a fair price. Once a contract accumulates that liquidity at CME, a rival exchange offering the same contract cannot easily attract traders away — a network effect that has kept CME's benchmark contracts dominant for decades.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalTrading volume, and so revenue, rises when markets are volatile and traders need to hedge or speculate on fast-moving prices, and can soften in calm, low-volatility periods regardless of the broader economic cycle. Interest rate policy is a particularly large swing factor, since CME's interest rate contracts are its single biggest product line and trading in them picks up whenever rate expectations are in flux.
Key risks
- Dependence on trading volume and volatility — Revenue depends on how much trading happens on CME's exchanges; a sustained period of low volatility or reduced trading activity directly reduces transaction fee revenue, the largest part of the business.
- Competition from other exchanges and clearing venues — Rival exchanges, and the possibility of a competing venue attracting enough liquidity in one of CME's core contracts, could draw trading volume away from CME's markets over time.
- Regulatory risk — CME's exchanges and clearing house operate under close regulatory oversight in the US and abroad; a change in rules on trading, clearing or capital requirements could raise costs or restrict how the business operates.
- Concentration in interest rate products — A large share of CME's revenue comes from interest rate futures and options; a structural shift in these products, or in how rate risk is hedged, would affect results more than the diversification across asset classes might suggest.
The case for
Buyers argue that the liquidity concentrated in CME's benchmark futures contracts is nearly impossible for a new exchange to replicate, that rising market volatility from any source tends to increase trading volume and revenue, and that a fee-per-contract model scales with almost no added cost as volume grows.
The case against
Sellers fear that a sustained calm market reduces the trading volume CME's revenue depends on, that regulators could reshape how derivatives trading and clearing work in ways CME cannot control, and that a large share of results still rests on interest rate products whose trading patterns could shift structurally.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
CME names ICE first among its rivals: both run futures and options exchanges plus their own clearing houses, competing head-on in energy, interest-rate and equity-index contracts for the same institutional traders.
Cboe's index options and volatility franchise (SPX, VIX), together with Cboe Clear, competes for the same US derivatives order flow and clearing fees that CME earns on its equity-index and futures complex.
Through Eurex, Deutsche Börse is the main venue for euro-denominated interest-rate and equity-index futures and offers clearing that competes for the global banks and asset managers who also trade CME's rate complex.
HKEX runs Asian equity-index, currency and commodity derivatives (including the LME metals franchise) with its own clearing houses, competing with CME for Asian-hours volume and for metals and FX hedgers.
Euronext operates European equity-index and commodity derivatives markets and its own clearing house, competing with CME for European listed-derivatives trading and clearing revenue.
Backed by BGC Group and a consortium of banks, FMX targets exactly CME's core franchise — US Treasury and SOFR interest-rate futures — offering LCH clearing to pull that liquidity away.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$6.77B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$4.29B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$4.19B
Total Equity
$28.73B
Total Liabilities
$169.70B
Current Ratio
1.02
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.89
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$783.38
Current Price
$305.71
Margin of Safety
+61.0%
Fair Value Range
$509.20 - $1057.56
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
25.93
ROE
14.2%
P/B Ratio
0.77
P/FCF
4.84
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
9.7%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
9.7%
WACC
7.7%
ROIC − WACC
+2.0 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (19)
- Price CAGR 8.91%
- ROIC 9.7%
- P/FCF 4.84
- P/B ratio 0.77
- Operating margin 65.1%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 15.6%
- Revenue growth 5Y 18.7%
- PEG ratio 1.76
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.01
- Share dilution 0.1%
- Net margin trend 63.3% vs 58.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (5)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -1.60%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Return on tangible assets
- Earnings surprise, average 0.3%
Unavailable (3)
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Interest coverage
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Terrence A. Duffy | Chairman & CEO | 67 |
| Ms. Lynne C. Fitzpatrick | Senior MD, President & CFO | 47 |
| Mr. Sunil Cutinho | Chief Information Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Derek L. Sammann | Senior MD & Global Head of Commodities Markets | 57 |
| Ms. Julie M. Winkler | Senior MD & Chief Commercial Officer | 50 |
| Ms. Suzanne Sprague | Senior MD, Group COO & Global Head of Clearing | - |
| Mr. Jack Tobin | MD & Chief Accounting Officer | 61 |
| Adam Minick | Investor Contact | - |
| Mr. Jonathan L. Marcus J.D. | Senior MD & General Counsel | - |
| Ms. Anita Liskey | Senior Managing Director of Corporate Marketing & Communications | 60 |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
8
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-26
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-23
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-21
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much CME moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 25% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 23.4%
- Volatility 90d
- 26.6%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- -0.34Correlation -0.18
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -33.0%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.03%
Earnings reactions
How CME moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 0.6% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Before the open | 2.99 | 3.02 | +1.0% | +0.2% | +0.2% | n/a |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Before the open | 2.94 | 2.99 | +1.8% | +4.3% | +5.0% | +9.5% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Before the open | 3.40 | 3.36 | -1.2% | -3.3% | +0.5% | 0.0% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Before the open | 2.77 | 2.77 | 0.0% | -0.2% | +0.5% | +4.7% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Before the open | 2.66 | 2.68 | +0.8% | -1.8% | -0.3% | -0.8% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.2% | +0.7% | 0.0% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.4% | -1.5% | +2.6% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.7% | +3.0% | +3.7% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.4% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.5% | -1.9% | -3.3% |
| Feb 14, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.5% | +3.7% | +3.6% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on CME and what the price did next.
- 10/23/2026PositiveCME Posts Record Q3 Revenue As Crypto Derivatives Push Continues
- +1 day
- pending
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/21/2026NegativeCME Group debole nel pre-market nonostante i conti oltre le attese
- +1 day
- -0.4%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/2/2026PositiveCME Group volumi medi giornalieri da record a settembre e nel terzo trimestre
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/5/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- 0.0%
- +3 days
- -0.8%
- 8/5/2026NegativeCME, FanDuel Venture Falters As Prediction Startups Race Ahead
- +1 day
- 0.0%
- +3 days
- -0.8%
- 6/25/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -3.0%
- +3 days
- -6.7%
- 6/22/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for CME.
- 1d agoPOSITIVECME Posts Record Q3 Revenue As Crypto Derivatives Push Continues
CME Group Inc. announced record third-quarter revenue of approximately $1.74 billion, signaling robust performance driven in part by its cryptocurrency derivatives business. While the company did not break out specific crypto revenue figures, the overall revenue surge indicates strong market activity and demand for its derivative products. This record revenue highlights CME's strategic positioning in a growing market segment, potentially attracting further investor interest and reinforcing its market leadership. Investors should note the positive trend, even with limited granular data on crypto's exact contribution.
- 3d agoNEGATIVECME Group debole nel pre-market nonostante i conti oltre le attese
CME Group Inc. is trading down approximately 1% in pre-market activity despite reporting third-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations. The company announced total revenues of $1.74 billion for the quarter. While the earnings beat suggests operational strength, the pre-market decline indicates that market sentiment may be influenced by other factors or that the positive earnings news has already been priced in, leading to profit-taking or a lack of further buying interest.
- 5d agoNEUTRALCME's Terry Duffy on the Disconcerting State of Finance Regulation
CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy expressed concerns regarding the current state of financial regulation, suggesting it is becoming overly complex and potentially hindering market efficiency. Duffy's remarks, made during an interview, highlighted a perceived lack of clarity and consistency in regulatory frameworks across different jurisdictions. While not directly impacting CME's operations in the short term, such commentary from a major exchange operator could signal potential future challenges or opportunities related to regulatory changes. Investors will monitor how these sentiments translate into policy discussions and their potential effects on trading volumes and operational costs.
- 22d agoPOSITIVECME Group volumi medi giornalieri da record a settembre e nel terzo trimestre
CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, reported record-breaking average daily volumes (ADV) for September 2026, reaching 31.8 million contracts. This also marks a new record for the third quarter. The strong performance indicates robust trading activity and high demand for CME's platforms. For investors, these record volumes suggest increased market participation and potentially higher transaction-based revenues for CME Group, reinforcing its market leadership and financial outlook.
- 9/3/2026NEUTRALCFTC files to dismiss CME lawsuit over crypto perpetual futures
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit brought by CME Group concerning crypto perpetual futures. CFTC lawyers characterized the suit as "much ado about nothing," asserting that CME Group lacks the legal standing to bring the case and refuting its claims. This legal maneuver by the CFTC aims to halt the proceedings, suggesting the regulator believes the CME Group's arguments are unfounded. The outcome could set precedents for regulatory oversight of crypto derivatives.
- 8/21/2026NEUTRALCME CEO Spars With CFTC Chair About Prediction Market Oversight
CME Group CEO has urged the CFTC to enhance oversight of prediction markets, citing concerns about potential manipulation as these platforms rapidly expand. The call highlights a growing tension between financial regulators and innovative trading venues. While the CME, a major derivatives marketplace, benefits from robust regulatory frameworks, the rapid ascent of prediction markets presents new challenges for market integrity. Investors in CME should monitor regulatory developments closely, as increased oversight could impact the competitive landscape for derivatives and alternative trading platforms.
- 8/5/2026NEGATIVECME, FanDuel Venture Falters As Prediction Startups Race Ahead
CME Group Inc. and FanDuel are reportedly scaling back their joint venture focused on prediction markets. The initiative, aimed at competing with burgeoning prediction startups, has failed to gain significant traction. This lack of progress in a rapidly growing sector, which poses a challenge to traditional financial exchanges and sports betting operators, suggests a missed opportunity for CME. Investors may view this as a setback in their diversification efforts into alternative betting and financial products.
- 7/29/2026NEUTRALFIA CEO on Prediction Market 'Disruption,' Regulation
CME Group is set to launch single-stock futures, enabling investors to hedge or speculate on over 50 major US companies. These cash-settled contracts will offer leverage without the complexities of options, tied to the closing prices of the underlying stocks. FIA CEO Walt Lukken views the expansion of prediction markets and new products like these as beneficial for developing robust regulatory frameworks within the financial industry. The move signals an evolving landscape for derivatives and speculative trading, potentially increasing market activity and investor participation in new asset classes.