CME Group Inc. (CME)
POSITIVEFundamental
74
Price
$278.18
Market Cap
$100.38B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
CME Group runs the exchanges where traders buy and sell standardized futures and options contracts on interest rates, stock indexes, currencies, energy, agricultural commodities and metals — agreements to buy or sell something at a set price on a future date. It does not take positions itself: it provides the marketplace, matches buyers with sellers, and, through its clearing house, guarantees that both sides of every trade get paid even if one of them defaults.
How it makes money
Most revenue comes from a small fee charged on every contract traded and cleared, so revenue rises with trading volume rather than with the direction prices move — a volatile market that makes people trade more is good for CME even if prices are falling. A second stream comes from selling the market data CME's exchanges generate to traders, banks and data vendors, plus investment income earned on the cash collateral customers post to guarantee their trades.
Competitive moat
Network effects · WideA futures contract is only useful if enough other traders use the identical contract, because that shared pool of buyers and sellers lets anyone enter or exit a position quickly at a fair price. Once a contract accumulates that liquidity at CME, a rival exchange offering the same contract cannot easily attract traders away — a network effect that has kept CME's benchmark contracts dominant for decades.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalTrading volume, and so revenue, rises when markets are volatile and traders need to hedge or speculate on fast-moving prices, and can soften in calm, low-volatility periods regardless of the broader economic cycle. Interest rate policy is a particularly large swing factor, since CME's interest rate contracts are its single biggest product line and trading in them picks up whenever rate expectations are in flux.
Key risks
- Dependence on trading volume and volatility — Revenue depends on how much trading happens on CME's exchanges; a sustained period of low volatility or reduced trading activity directly reduces transaction fee revenue, the largest part of the business.
- Competition from other exchanges and clearing venues — Rival exchanges, and the possibility of a competing venue attracting enough liquidity in one of CME's core contracts, could draw trading volume away from CME's markets over time.
- Regulatory risk — CME's exchanges and clearing house operate under close regulatory oversight in the US and abroad; a change in rules on trading, clearing or capital requirements could raise costs or restrict how the business operates.
- Concentration in interest rate products — A large share of CME's revenue comes from interest rate futures and options; a structural shift in these products, or in how rate risk is hedged, would affect results more than the diversification across asset classes might suggest.
The case for
Buyers argue that the liquidity concentrated in CME's benchmark futures contracts is nearly impossible for a new exchange to replicate, that rising market volatility from any source tends to increase trading volume and revenue, and that a fee-per-contract model scales with almost no added cost as volume grows.
The case against
Sellers fear that a sustained calm market reduces the trading volume CME's revenue depends on, that regulators could reshape how derivatives trading and clearing work in ways CME cannot control, and that a large share of results still rests on interest rate products whose trading patterns could shift structurally.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$6.77B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$4.29B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$4.19B
Total Equity
$28.73B
Total Liabilities
$169.70B
Current Ratio
1.02
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.89
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$777.19
Current Price
$278.18
Margin of Safety
+64.2%
Fair Value Range
$505.18 - $1049.21
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
23.68
ROE
14.2%
P/B Ratio
0.70
P/FCF
4.42
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
9.7%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
9.7%
WACC
7.7%
ROIC − WACC
+2.0 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (20)
- Price CAGR 9.08%
- ROIC 9.7%
- P/FCF 4.42
- P/B Ratio 0.70
- Operating Margin 65.1%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 15.6%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 18.7%
- Analyst Consensus 57% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.58
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.01
- Share Dilution 0.1%
- Net Margin Trend 63.3% vs 58.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (5)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -1.60%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Earnings Surprise avg 0.3%
Unavailable (3)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Terrence A. Duffy | Chairman & CEO | 67 |
| Ms. Lynne C. Fitzpatrick | Senior MD, President & CFO | 47 |
| Mr. Sunil Cutinho | Chief Information Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Derek L. Sammann | Senior MD & Global Head of Commodities Markets | 57 |
| Ms. Julie M. Winkler | Senior MD & Chief Commercial Officer | 50 |
| Ms. Suzanne Sprague | Senior MD, Group COO & Global Head of Clearing | - |
| Mr. Jack Tobin | MD & Chief Accounting Officer | 61 |
| Adam Minick | Investor Contact | - |
| Mr. Jonathan L. Marcus J.D. | Senior MD & General Counsel | - |
| Ms. Anita Liskey | Senior Managing Director of Corporate Marketing & Communications | 60 |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
8
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for CME, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 5d agoNEUTRALCME CEO Spars With CFTC Chair About Prediction Market Oversight
CME Group CEO has urged the CFTC to enhance oversight of prediction markets, citing concerns about potential manipulation as these platforms rapidly expand. The call highlights a growing tension between financial regulators and innovative trading venues. While the CME, a major derivatives marketplace, benefits from robust regulatory frameworks, the rapid ascent of prediction markets presents new challenges for market integrity. Investors in CME should monitor regulatory developments closely, as increased oversight could impact the competitive landscape for derivatives and alternative trading platforms.
- 20d agoNEGATIVECME, FanDuel Venture Falters as Prediction Startups Race Ahead
CME Group Inc. and FanDuel are reportedly scaling back their joint venture focused on prediction markets. The initiative, aimed at competing with burgeoning prediction startups, has failed to gain significant traction. This development suggests that established players like CME Group are struggling to carve out a niche in this rapidly evolving and competitive sector, which poses a growing challenge to traditional financial exchanges and sports betting operators. The faltering venture could indicate missed opportunities or strategic missteps in adapting to new market trends.
- 28d agoNEUTRALFIA CEO on Prediction Market 'Disruption,' Regulation
CME Group is set to launch single-stock futures, enabling investors to hedge or speculate on over 50 major US companies. These cash-settled contracts will offer leverage without the complexities of options, tied to the closing prices of the underlying stocks. FIA CEO Walt Lukken views the expansion of prediction markets and new products like these as beneficial for developing robust regulatory frameworks within the financial industry. The move signals an evolving landscape for derivatives and speculative trading, potentially increasing market activity and investor participation in new asset classes.
- 7/26/2026NEUTRALTraders are getting a new tool to wager on the biggest U.S. stocks
CME Group Inc. is launching single-stock futures on Monday, offering traders a new avenue to hedge or speculate on over 50 of the largest U.S. companies. This product expansion provides increased flexibility for investors seeking to manage risk or express views on individual large-cap stocks. While potentially increasing trading volume and revenue for CME, the direct impact on the underlying stocks is neutral as it provides a new derivative instrument rather than affecting the companies' fundamentals.
- 6/25/2026NEUTRALCME Plans to Launch Wind Derivatives for US, Europe, Australia
CME Group Inc. is reportedly planning to introduce wind derivatives contracts spanning the US, Europe, and Australia. This strategic move by the exchange operator aligns with the increasing global emphasis on renewable energy sources and their integration into power generation. While the specific details and launch timeline remain undisclosed, the initiative signals CME's proactive approach to capitalize on the growing renewable energy market. Investors will be watching for further announcements regarding contract specifications and potential market impact.
- 6/25/2026POSITIVECME Plans Wind Derivatives Launch for US, Europe, Australia
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is reportedly planning to launch wind derivatives contracts spanning the US, Europe, and Australia. This strategic move anticipates the increasing significance of renewable energy sources in global power generation. The introduction of these derivatives could provide crucial hedging tools for the burgeoning wind energy sector, potentially attracting more investment and stabilizing prices. For investors, this signals CME's proactive engagement with the growing green energy market, offering new avenues for speculation and risk management within the energy commodity space.
- 6/22/2026NEGATIVECME Trading Disrupted as Platform Faces ‘Disconnects’
CME Group, the world's largest derivatives exchange operator, experienced significant trading disruptions on Monday due to platform 'disconnects'. The issue, communicated to customers via email, impacted trading operations midday. While the exact duration and full extent of the disruption are yet to be fully detailed, such technical failures can lead to reduced trading volumes, potential financial losses for participants, and damage to the exchange's reputation for reliability. Investors will be monitoring the company's response and any potential impact on its financial results.
- 6/22/2026NEUTRALCME Direct Trading Platform Is Back Up After Earlier Disruptions
CME Direct, a key trading platform operated by CME Group Inc., has resumed full operations following a brief period of technical disruption on Monday. The platform experienced difficulties that impacted trading activities, according to market participants. The restoration of services is crucial for maintaining market liquidity and confidence. While the disruption was temporary, such incidents can highlight operational risks for exchanges. Investors will monitor CME's communication regarding the cause and preventative measures to ensure future stability.
- 6/21/2026NEGATIVECME Group Sues CFTC Over Competitor Crypto Perpetual Futures Approval
CME Group has initiated legal action against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in federal court, contesting the regulator's recent approval of competitor-issued cryptocurrency perpetual futures contracts. The core of the lawsuit centers on CME's assertion that the CFTC overstepped its statutory authority in granting this approval. This legal challenge introduces significant uncertainty for the regulated derivatives market, potentially impacting the perceived stability and regulatory clarity of crypto derivatives trading. Investors will monitor the court's decision for its implications on market structure and competition.
via Markets Gazette