DT Midstream Inc (DTM)
OvervaluedFundamental
64
Price
$123.91
Market Cap
$12.70B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Owner, operator, and developer of integrated natural gas midstream assets providing gathering, transmission, storage, and transportation services through interstate pipelines, intrastate pipelines, storage systems, gathering laterals, and compression facilities across the Midwestern U.S., Eastern Canada, and Northeastern U.S. regions.
How it makes money
Revenue primarily generated through long-term, fixed-revenue contracts—particularly firm service contracts with fixed demand charges or minimum volume commitments paired with fixed deficiency fees—that provide revenue stability independent of natural gas price fluctuations. The Pipeline segment derives approximately 92% of revenue from firm service contracts. The Gathering segment also includes revenue from flowing gas associated with proved developed producing reserves.
Revenue by segment
FERC-regulated interstate pipelines, intrastate pipelines, and storage systems serving the Midwest, Northeast, and Eastern Canada regions; includes gathering lateral pipelines and equity method investments in major natural gas transmission systems.
Natural gas gathering systems in Appalachia and Haynesville regions that collect gas from production wells and transport it to transmission pipelines, with ancillary services including compression, dehydration, treatment, and water handling.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowThe company benefits from durable competitive advantages rooted in long-term firm service contracts with fixed demand charges that create significant customer switching costs; a regulatory framework (FERC regulation) providing rate stability, cost recovery, and regulatory expertise; and strategically located integrated assets connecting premium production areas to key demand centers that generate operational synergies and efficiency advantages. However, competitive pressures from other midstream operators and the need to win contracts competitively limit the width of these advantages.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalDemand for midstream services shows moderate cyclicality: long-term firm service contracts provide defensive characteristics and revenue stability, but underlying demand depends on natural gas production volumes and consumption driven by economic cycles, power generation demand, industrial activity, and LNG export levels. Growth drivers include structural expansion of natural gas consumption for power generation as coal plants retire, increasing LNG export capacity, and continued shale production in key basins.
Key risks
- Customer Concentration — Expand Energy represents approximately 45% of operating revenues, creating significant dependency risk if this major customer reduces volumes, exits contracts, or experiences financial distress.
- Regulatory Risk — Regulatory changes at the federal or state level could increase compliance costs, and challenges to FERC-approved rates or changes in regulatory policy could materially reduce cash flows and operating income.
- Commodity Market Exposure — While long-term contracts mitigate exposure, demand for midstream services ultimately depends on natural gas production volumes and consumption patterns, which are subject to commodity price effects and evolving global market conditions.
- Operational and Environmental Hazards — Pipeline operations expose the company to risks including leaks, ruptures, explosions, environmental contamination, spills, and equipment failures that could result in property damage, personal injury, environmental liability, regulatory fines, and reputational harm.
- Cybersecurity — As an operator of critical infrastructure, the company faces cybersecurity threats that could compromise operational systems, confidential information, or customer data if security defenses are inadequate.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 45% of revenue
Expand Energy represents approximately 45% of operating revenues. This degree of concentration creates material revenue dependency risk, though contracts provide some protection against abrupt customer loss.
The case for
Buyers argue that DT Midstream operates a strategically located integrated midstream platform with predominantly long-term firm service contracts providing highly predictable and stable cash flows insulated from commodity price exposure; the company is executing value-accretive growth initiatives including Guardian G3 expansion (40% capacity increase supported by 20-year precedent agreements) and LEAP Phase 4 expansion that will grow cash flows; the company achieved investment-grade credit ratings across all major rating agencies, supporting financial flexibility; benefits from long-term structural growth in natural gas demand driven by coal plant retirements, industrial adoption, and expanding LNG export capacity.
The case against
Sellers fear that customer concentration is extreme—Expand Energy accounts for 45% of revenues, creating material dependency risk if the customer experiences distress or exits major contracts; regulatory uncertainty threatens FERC-regulated assets and could impose new costs or limit revenue; long-term contracts provide only partial protection against demand shocks from economic slowdown or energy transition; competition from other midstream operators limits pricing power; pipeline operations carry ongoing operational and environmental hazards; integration of major acquisitions (Midwest Pipeline Acquisition) adds execution risk; energy transition and potential decline in natural gas demand over the long term threatens cash flow growth.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Williams is the closest like-for-like rival, running natural gas gathering systems in the Appalachian Basin and Haynesville plus long-haul interstate transmission, so it bids against DT Midstream for the same producer acreage dedications and the same firm transport contracts.
Kinder Morgan operates the largest US natural gas transmission network, including Haynesville gathering and Gulf Coast takeaway capacity, and competes for the same producers, utilities and power generators that contract DT Midstream's capacity.
Energy Transfer's gas gathering and intrastate pipelines in Louisiana and East Texas compete head-on with DT Midstream's Blue Union and LEAP assets to move Haynesville production toward Gulf Coast LNG buyers.
Through ANR Pipeline and Great Lakes Gas Transmission, TC Energy sells interstate transport and storage into Michigan and the upper Midwest, the same markets served by DT Midstream's Vector, Viking and Washington 10 storage assets.
Antero Midstream is a pure-play natural gas gatherer in the Marcellus and Utica of West Virginia and Ohio, chasing the same Appalachian acreage and the same power and data-centre demand DT Midstream is connecting there.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$1.31B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$468M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$441M
Total Equity
$4.74B
Total Liabilities
$5.20B
Current Ratio
1.37
Interest Coverage
3.99
Debt/EBITDA
3.87
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$101.92
Current Price
$123.91
Margin of Safety
-21.6%
Fair Value Range
$66.25 - $137.60
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
27.17
ROE
9.3%
P/B Ratio
2.65
P/FCF
26.33
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
5.2%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
5.2%
WACC
7.6%
ROIC − WACC
-2.4 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 12.60%
- Price CAGR 20.78%
- ROIC 5.2%
- P/FCF 26.33
- P/B ratio 2.65
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 49.6%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 9.9%
- Revenue growth 5Y 10.5%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.00
- Net margin trend 35.7% vs 33.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (7)
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average -0.3%
- PEG ratio 6.01
- Share dilution 4.3%
Unavailable (2)
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
No institutional filings reported for this company.
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. David J. Slater | CEO & Executive Chairman | 58 |
| Mr. Christopher Zona | COO & President | 52 |
| Mr. Jeffrey A. Jewell | Executive VP & CFO | 58 |
| Ms. Wendy A.T. Ellis | Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 59 |
| Mr. Robert C. Skaggs Jr. | Independent Director | 71 |
| Mr. Joseph P. Finland | Chief Accounting Officer | 43 |
| Mr. Todd Lohrmann | Director of Investor Relations | - |
Audit Risk
3
Board Risk
3
Compensation Risk
3
Shareholder Rights Risk
3
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-19
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-30
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-07-30
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much DTM moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 15% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 23.9%
- Volatility 90d
- 23.1%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.08Correlation 0.05
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -21.4%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.68%
Earnings reactions
How DTM moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 29, 2026 · In 5 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 1.07Revenue estimate: $334M
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 1.5% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Before the open | 1.17 | 1.08 | -7.5% | -2.0% | +0.6% | -2.1% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Before the open | 1.16 | 1.27 | +9.8% | +1.0% | +6.6% | +4.2% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Before the open | 1.18 | 1.08 | -8.7% | -2.6% | -0.9% | +2.8% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Before the open | 1.07 | 1.13 | +5.2% | +1.7% | +3.1% | +3.9% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.5% | +1.3% | +2.9% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.8% | -1.3% | +1.9% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.2% | -0.9% | -2.7% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.8% | +2.2% | +2.8% |
| Jul 30, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.1% | +0.6% | -4.5% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.6% | -1.6% | +0.6% |
| Feb 16, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.9% | +4.3% | +8.9% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.5% | +2.5% | +2.3% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on DTM and what the price did next.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for DTM.