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Equifax Inc (EFX)

Overvalued
IndustrialsConsulting ServicesUnited States

Fundamental

67

Price

$182.36

Market Cap

$20.63B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Equifax is a global data, analytics, and technology company that provides information solutions and human resources business process automation services. The company maintains diversified databases of consumer and business information including credit history, financial assets, employment records, and demographic data. It serves financial institutions, employers, government agencies, and consumers across North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific.

How it makes money

Equifax generates revenue through multiple channels: per-transaction fees for employment verification and compliance services, subscription and licensing arrangements for online information solutions, software-as-a-service (SaaS) platforms for credit decisioning and analytics, direct-to-consumer products for credit monitoring and identity protection, and marketing and portfolio management services for financial institutions.

Revenue by segment

Workforce Solutions42.5%

Provides employment and income verification services, employer compliance solutions (I-9 verification, tax services), and HR onboarding services. Operates The Work Number platform with 4 million employer contributors. Primarily serves U.S. employers, lenders, and government agencies.

U.S. Information Solutions (USIS)34.2%

Delivers consumer credit information, fraud prevention, mortgage solutions, and financial marketing services to banks, lenders, and financial services companies. Provides real-time decisioning access and customized applications for credit evaluation, risk assessment, and customer acquisition.

International23.3%

Operates credit reporting, identity services, and debt collection software across Latin America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Canada. Adapts credit information and verification services to local regulatory environments and data availability in each geographic market.

Competitive moat

Patents and licences · Narrow

Equifax's competitive moat rests on proprietary data assets and scale. The company operates large, diversified databases built from multiple sources (credit, financial, employment, telecommunications data) that are difficult and time-consuming to replicate. The platform benefits from network effects, particularly in Workforce Solutions where 4 million employers contribute data. However, the moat is narrow because the company explicitly acknowledges "strong competition in every category," with competitors possessing larger market share in specific regions or product segments. No durable pricing power or switching costs are evident beyond brand recognition.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Equifax's revenue streams exhibit moderate cyclicality. Workforce Solutions (employment verification, payroll services) show resilience as employers maintain HR functions and hiring verification requirements during recessions. USIS (credit decisioning, fraud prevention) experiences demand cycles correlated with lending volume, mortgage activity, and credit creation—which contract during recessions. However, debt collection services within the platform become more valuable during economic stress. International diversification across 23% of revenue provides geographic buffer. The 2025 results demonstrate vulnerability to U.S. hiring and mortgage market weakness, with 4Q 2025 showing 9% revenue growth despite noted headwinds in these markets.

Key risks

  • Data Security and Cybersecurity Threats — As a company handling sensitive personal and financial information across millions of consumers and businesses, Equifax faces significant exposure to data breaches and cyberattacks. Material breaches could result in regulatory penalties, litigation, reputational harm, and loss of customer trust.
  • Complex Regulatory Environment and Compliance Risk — Equifax operates under multiple overlapping regulatory frameworks including the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA), Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA), Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) oversight, state data breach notification laws, and rapidly evolving artificial intelligence and data protection regulations. The CFPB can impose penalties up to $1 million per day for known violations, creating material financial risk.
  • Intense Competition in All Market Segments — Equifax faces strong competition from established global credit reporting firms, specialized service providers, and emerging technology companies in credit decisioning, fraud prevention, employment verification, and collections. Competitors in specific regions or product categories may have larger market share, constraining pricing power and market expansion opportunities.
  • Consumer Litigation Risk — The Fair Credit Reporting Act's attorney fee-shifting provision creates incentives for class action litigation against credit reporting agencies. Legal actions alleging inaccurate credit reporting or violations of consumer rights could result in significant damages, legal fees, and reputational harm.
  • Dependence on Proprietary Data Assets — Equifax's competitive position depends critically on maintaining access to diverse, high-quality data sources. Changes in data availability, restrictions on data collection or use, or legal challenges to data acquisition practices could impair the company's ability to serve customers and compete effectively.
  • International Operational Complexity — Equifax derives 23% of revenue from international operations across Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Operating in multiple jurisdictions creates exposure to foreign exchange risk, varying data protection and privacy regulations, geopolitical uncertainty, and regulatory changes that could restrict data operations or require costly compliance adjustments.

Customer concentration

Top customers account for 3% of revenue

Equifax maintains exceptional customer diversification with the largest single customer representing only 3% of total revenue. The customer base spans multiple industries including financial services (banks, lenders, credit card issuers), employers, government agencies (federal, state, local), automotive lenders, insurance companies, telecommunications and utilities, retail businesses, and direct-to-consumer channels. This diversification across verticals and customer types insulates the company from dependency on any single customer or narrow customer segment.

The case for

Buyers argue that Equifax benefits from structural demand growth driven by digital transformation and regulatory expansion. The rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning creates opportunities for Equifax to deploy advanced analytics in credit decisioning, fraud prevention, and risk management. Cloud-native infrastructure enables rapid product development and scalability to new markets. Diversified revenue streams—employment verification, credit reporting, mortgage solutions, debt collections, and international operations—provide multiple growth engines and resilience during sector-specific downturns. M&A opportunities to acquire complementary data assets and capabilities can accelerate growth and expand addressable markets. Low customer concentration (largest customer = 3%) ensures no single customer loss threatens financial stability. Workforce Solutions operates with 4 million employer contributors, creating a network effect with high switching costs. The company's 2025 segment growth rates (Workforce Solutions +9%, USIS +12%, International +5%) demonstrate continued expansion despite challenged U.S. hiring and mortgage markets.

The case against

Sellers fear that Equifax operates in a structurally challenged environment with limited pricing power. Strong competition across all business segments—from established credit bureaus to specialized providers to emerging tech companies—constrains margin expansion and market share gains. The company acknowledges competitors possess larger share in specific regions and product categories, suggesting limited defensibility. Regulatory headwinds pose existential risks: the CFPB can impose $1 million per day penalties, evolving AI and data protection regulations remain uncertain in application, and state-level privacy laws sometimes impose more stringent requirements than federal law. Data breach risk is material for a company handling sensitive consumer information; the reputational cost of major security incidents could impair customer relationships and shareholder value. Consumer litigation risk is elevated given FCRA attorney fee-shifting provisions creating class action incentives. Cyclical exposure in USIS (mortgage and lending-driven segments) creates vulnerability to housing market deterioration—evidenced by 2025 headwinds in U.S. hiring and mortgage markets. International operations (23% of revenue) face currency headwinds and regulatory complexity. Dependence on proprietary data means any restriction on data collection, use, or acquisition practices could damage competitive positioning. Cloud transformation costs and technology investments may pressure margins before generating ROI.

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 22.6Score: 78Market cap: $15.22B

The third US consumer credit bureau: its reports sit next to Equifax's in the tri-merge file that mortgage lenders pull, and it sells the same risk, identity and fraud products to banks and insurers.

P/E: 23.6Score: 81Market cap: $17.17B

Competes with Equifax for the budget lenders spend on credit scoring, decisioning and fraud-analytics software, and reaches consumers directly with subscription credit monitoring.

Experian plcEXPN

One of the three US consumer credit bureaus alongside Equifax and TransUnion, selling credit reports, scores, fraud and marketing data to the same lenders, and competing directly in employment and income verification.

Dun & Bradstreet Holdings, Inc.Not tracked

Sells commercial credit reports and business risk data to the same corporate customers as Equifax's commercial solutions unit; taken private by Clearlake Capital in August 2025, so it no longer has a listed share.

Truework, Inc.Not tracked

A private US company that sells income and employment verifications to mortgage lenders and employers, the market Equifax's The Work Number dominates.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$6.59B

Trailing 12 months (through 9/30/2026)

Net Income

$743M

Trailing 12 months (through 9/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$1.13B

Total Equity

$4.60B

Total Liabilities

$7.13B

Current Ratio

1.09

Interest Coverage

5.35

Debt/EBITDA

2.86

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseOvervalued

Fair Value

$135.38

Current Price

$182.36

Margin of Safety

-34.7%

Fair Value Range

$89.05 - $181.70

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$198.40
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$119.45
Earnings multiple (P/E):$101.78
Graham growth formula:$97.02
Earnings power value (EPV):$70.20
Justified P/B:$61.11
Dividend discount (Gordon):$25.31
P/FFO, funds from operations:$189.67
Mid-cycle earnings:$296.55
Revenue multiple:$161.15
Last Earnings Surprise:+1.78%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

29.46

ROE

14.3%

P/B Ratio

4.77

P/FCF

19.33

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

9.4%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

9.4%

WACC

10.1%

ROIC − WACC

-0.7 pp

ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 5.65%
  • ROIC 9.4%
  • P/FCF 19.33
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Operating margin 18.8%
  • Positive free cash flow
  • Current ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • ROE 16.5%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 8.0%
  • Earnings surprise, average 3.0%
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.17
  • Share dilution -0.6%
  • Net margin trend 11.3% vs 11.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (7)

  • Price CAGR 2.43%
  • P/B ratio 4.77
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • PEG ratio 5.90

Unavailable (2)

  • Gross margin –
  • Dividend payout –

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

2.17

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-0.6%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Mark W. BegorCEO & Director67
Mr. John W. Gamble Jr.Executive VP, CFO & COO62
Mr. Jamil FarshchiExecutive VP & CTO47
Ms. Julia A. HoustonExecutive VP & Chief Legal Officer54
Mr. Chad M. BortonExecutive VP & President of Workforce Solutions54
Mr. James M. GriggsChief Accounting Officer & Corporate Controller-
Mr. Trevor BurnsSenior Vice President of Corporate Investor Relations-
Ms. Kathryn Q. WalkerExecutive VP and Chief Marketing & Communications Officer47
Mr. Sunil BindalExecutive VP & Chief Corporate Development and Strategy Officer50
Ms. Carla J. ChaneyExecutive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer55

Audit Risk

1

Board Risk

4

Compensation Risk

8

Shareholder Rights Risk

8

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-19

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-10-20

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-20

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much EFX moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 71% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
50.8%
Volatility 90d
47.2%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
0.52Correlation 0.16
Max drawdown (12m)
-41.3%
ATR (14d, % of price)
3.58%

Earnings reactions

How EFX moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

No upcoming release on the calendar.

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 4.1% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
  • Of the 5 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Oct 20, 2026Before the open2.202.26+2.8% +4.8% +11.3% n/a
Jul 21, 2026Before the open2.222.25+1.2% -11.7% -3.9% -1.5%
Apr 21, 2026Before the open1.721.86+8.3% -4.0% -3.0% -14.0%
Feb 4, 2026Before the open2.072.09+0.8% -0.9% +3.4% +15.8%
Oct 21, 2025Before the open1.952.04+4.5% +1.9% -0.5% -0.9%
Jul 22, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a-5.7% -8.2% -7.2%
Apr 22, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a+12.1% +13.8% +19.1%
Feb 6, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a-5.7% -8.4% -5.9%
Oct 16, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-4.1% -3.3% -6.3%
Jul 17, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+2.0% +1.9% +0.6%
Apr 17, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-9.3% -8.5% -5.0%
Feb 7, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+3.9% +4.2% +3.5%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on EFX and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for EFX.

  • 4/21/2026NEUTRAL
    Equifax Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript

    Equifax Inc. will host its Q1 2026 Earnings Call on April 21, 2026, at 2:29 PM UTC. The company will discuss its financial performance and strategic initiatives for the first quarter. While the earnings call itself is an informational event, the actual financial results and forward-looking statements made during the call will determine the market's reaction. Investors will be scrutinizing revenue growth, profitability metrics, and any guidance provided for the upcoming quarters to assess the company's trajectory.

  • 4/21/2026POSITIVE
    Equifax Posts Fastest Revenue Growth Since 2021 on Mortgages

    Equifax Inc. announced its strongest revenue growth since 2021, propelled by a significant increase in mortgage application volumes. This surge indicates a robust recovery and expansion in the housing market, directly benefiting Equifax's data and analytics services. The company's performance suggests a positive outlook for its core business segments and highlights its ability to capitalize on market upturns. Investors will likely view this acceleration as a sign of underlying business strength and potential for continued earnings growth.