Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)
Fair ValueFundamental
43
Price
$108.67
Market Cap
$37.56B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Estée Lauder is a global prestige beauty company that develops, manufactures, and markets skincare, makeup, fragrance, and haircare products under a portfolio of approximately 25 brands including Estée Lauder, Clinique, MAC, La Mer, Bobbi Brown, and TOM FORD. The company operates across 150 countries through multiple channels: company-owned freestanding stores and e-commerce platforms, luxury department stores and specialty retailers (Sephora, Ulta), travel retail locations, and authorized online partners. The Lauder family maintains approximately 84% of voting control.
How it makes money
The company generates revenue through multiple distribution channels: direct-to-consumer sales via company-owned websites and freestanding stores; partnerships with luxury department stores and specialty beauty retailers that target affluent consumers; travel retail locations in airports and cruise ships; and online third-party platforms. The business model emphasizes selective, luxury-aligned distribution to preserve brand prestige, deliberately avoiding mass-market drugstore channels that competitors like L'Oréal utilize. All channels are integrated through a unified global brand strategy.
Revenue by segment
Moisturizers, serums, cleansers, and targeted skincare treatments sold under brands including Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, Origins, and Dr.Jart+. This is the largest product category, reflecting the global megatrend toward skincare-focused beauty consumption.
Color cosmetics including foundations, lipsticks, eyeshadows, and mascaras sold under brands including MAC, Estée Lauder, Bobbi Brown, and Clinique. Makeup represents the second-largest segment and competes directly with mass-market and prestige alternatives.
Perfumes, eau de toilette, and colognes sold under Estée Lauder, TOM FORD, MAC, and other brands. Fragrance is the third-largest segment and often benefits from luxury gifting trends and international travel recovery.
Hair treatment and styling products sold under brands including Bumble and bumble and Aveda. Hair care is a smaller but growing segment that completes the personal care portfolio.
Competitive moat
Brand · WideEstée Lauder's durable competitive advantage rests on brand prestige and consumer loyalty across a diversified portfolio of approximately 25 iconic brands. The company commands significant pricing power by restricting distribution to luxury channels—department stores, specialty retailers (Sephora, Ulta), and direct-to-consumer—while deliberately avoiding mass-market drugstore distribution that would dilute brand positioning. Consumers rarely downgrade from prestige to mass-market beauty once they experience the quality and positioning of premium products (the 'lipstick effect'). The company's global R&D and innovation capabilities, combined with selective distribution relationships built over decades, create high barriers to entry and customer switching costs. The Lauder family's 84% voting control provides long-term strategic stability.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalDemand for prestige beauty is moderately cyclical as it is discretionary consumer spending, but Estée Lauder's positioning in the luxury segment provides greater resilience than mass-market alternatives. Global skincare adoption remains strong, particularly in Asia. E-commerce and social commerce penetration continue to expand, driving channel diversification. Travel retail recovery, particularly in Asia, serves as a near-term upside driver. Geographic expansion into emerging markets and premiumization trends support long-term growth. Seasonal gifting (holiday seasons) and tourism cycles influence quarterly results.
Key risks
- Mainland China and Asia-Pacific Market Weakness — The company discloses material geographic concentration in Mainland China and Asia travel retail, where ongoing softness in prestige beauty consumer sentiment has depressed skincare sales and travel retail performance. Geographic concentration creates earnings volatility if regional demand deteriorates further.
- Competitive Pressures and Market Saturation — The filing cites ongoing competitive pressures in North America and broader prestige beauty market saturation. New market entrants, direct-to-consumer competition, and social commerce platforms create pricing and margin pressure. The company faces competition from both mass-market brands and other prestige players.
- Macroeconomic and Supply Chain Risks — The filing identifies exposure to recession risk, currency volatility, inflation, and supply chain disruptions. Global macro headwinds, particularly in luxury consumer spending, could reduce demand. Supply chain challenges may increase costs or create delivery delays.
- Geopolitical Tensions — The filing discloses that geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and China, could have a material adverse effect on business operations and financial performance. Trade restrictions, tariffs, or sanctions could disrupt sourcing, distribution, or market access.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 4% of revenue
The largest single customer accounted for 4% of accounts receivable as of June 30, 2024, indicating improved customer diversification. This represents a significant improvement from prior years when a major travel retail customer represented 13-14% of consolidated net sales. The company has meaningfully reduced customer concentration risk through channel diversification and direct-to-consumer growth.
The case for
Buyers argue that Estée Lauder's brand strength and pricing power position it well for a prestige beauty recovery. China stabilization—not necessarily full recovery—would unlock substantial value creation, given the material size of the market and recent softness. The company's Profit Recovery & Growth Plan is delivering early results: operating margins expanded 320 basis points and gross margins reached 75.5% in fiscal 2026, demonstrating operational discipline and cost control. Fragrance (+10% organic) and skincare (+4%) are showing early growth momentum. The company's pivot toward faster-growing channels—Amazon, TikTok Shop, and direct-to-consumer—positions it to capture e-commerce upside. Travel retail recovery, when it occurs, represents a meaningful earnings uplift. Estée Lauder's portfolio of 25+ prestige brands provides pricing power and customer switching costs. Long-term EBITDA could approach prior highs if margins normalize and travel retail recovers, supporting fair valuations in the $180-185 range.
The case against
Sellers fear that Estée Lauder's exposure to Mainland China and Asia travel retail represents structural, not cyclical, demand destruction. Consumer sentiment weakness in prestige beauty may persist longer than management expects if Chinese consumer confidence remains depressed. Travel retail, while recovering from pandemic lows, carries significant uncertainty and may never return to historical peak volumes. The forward P/E of 31x leaves limited room for disappointment; the market has already priced in a successful turnaround. Cash flow pressures persist due to restructuring costs—guidance points to lower operating cash flow in fiscal 2027 despite reported EPS improvements, raising concerns about the durability of the recovery. Debt levels remain elevated while trailing twelve-month basic EPS is a loss. Market saturation in key channels (department stores, Sephora) and aggressive competition from direct-to-consumer startups and mass-market players create persistent margin pressure. Execution risk on the Profit Recovery & Growth Plan remains material—the company must successfully cut costs, enter new channels, and restore growth simultaneously, a challenging operational feat.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Its L'Oréal Luxe division (Lancôme, Yves Saint Laurent Beauté, Armani Beauty, Kiehl's) sells prestige skincare, makeup and fragrance to the same department-store, Sephora and travel-retail shoppers Estée Lauder depends on.
Competes directly in prestige skincare with brands such as Clé de Peau Beauté, NARS and Drunk Elephant, and above all for the Chinese and Asian travel-retail customer that drives a large share of Estée Lauder's sales.
Its prestige arm holds the licensed designer fragrances (Gucci, Burberry, Chloé, Calvin Klein) and colour brands that sit on the same shelves as Estée Lauder's Tom Ford Beauty, Jo Malone London and MAC.
Its Perfumes & Cosmetics maisons — Parfums Christian Dior, Guerlain, Givenchy Beauty, Fenty Beauty — fight for the same luxury beauty spend in fragrance and makeup worldwide.
A pure-play prestige group whose Rabanne, Carolina Herrera and Jean Paul Gaultier scents compete with Estée Lauder's designer and niche fragrances, while Charlotte Tilbury takes on MAC and Estée Lauder in prestige makeup.
Through La Prairie and Chantecaille it competes for the same high-end skincare customer, particularly in European and Asian travel retail where ultra-premium creams are sold.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$15.05B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$182M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$1.32B
Total Equity
$3.81B
Total Liabilities
$15.96B
Current Ratio
1.22
Interest Coverage
2.34
Debt/EBITDA
5.87
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$93.25
Current Price
$108.67
Margin of Safety
-16.5%
Fair Value Range
$60.61 - $125.89
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
217.34
ROE
4.8%
P/B Ratio
7.08
P/FCF
20.46
Gross Margin
75.5%
ROIC
4.5%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
4.5%
WACC
9.8%
ROIC − WACC
-5.2 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (12)
- Gross margin 75.5%
- P/FCF 20.46
- Operating margin 5.2%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Earnings surprise, average 38.5%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 9.74
- Share dilution 1.2%
- Net margin trend 1.2% vs -7.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (13)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -4.53%
- Price CAGR 2.88%
- ROIC 4.6%
- P/B ratio 7.08
- Debt/equity ratio
- CapEx intensity
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE 4.6%
- Revenue growth 5Y -1.5%
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend payout –
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Stephane de la Faverie | CEO, President & Director | 51 |
| Mr. Akhil Shrivastava | Executive VP & CFO | 52 |
| Ms. Rashida K. La Lande | Executive VP & General Counsel | 51 |
| Ms. Jane Hertzmark Hudis | Executive VP & Chief Brand Officer | 65 |
| Mr. Roberto Canevari | Executive VP & Chief Value Chain Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Brian J. Franz | Chief Technology & Transformation, Data and Analytics Officer | 60 |
| Ms. Deborah Krulewitch | Senior Vice President of Corporate Administration | - |
| Ms. Laraine A. Mancini | Senior Vice President Finance & Strategy & Head of Investor Relations | 55 |
| Ms. Meridith Webster | Executive VP and Chief Communications & Public Affairs Officer | 49 |
| Ms. Aude Gandon | Chief Digital & Marketing Officer | - |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
10
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-08-19
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-05-01
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-08
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much EL moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 64% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 35.8%
- Volatility 90d
- 42.0%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.27Correlation 0.34
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -43.8%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.27%
Earnings reactions
How EL moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 2, 2026 · In 9 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 0.51Revenue estimate: $3.7B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 12.6% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 4, down 8 (out of 12).
- Of the 6 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Before the open | 0.33 | 0.39 | +18.4% | +11.2% | +16.3% | +24.4% |
| May 1, 2026 | Before the open | 0.67 | 0.91 | +36.2% | +12.1% | +3.4% | +11.2% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Before the open | 0.86 | 0.89 | +3.4% | -12.4% | -19.2% | -11.9% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Before the open | 0.18 | 0.32 | +75.9% | -2.8% | +0.3% | -6.4% |
| Aug 20, 2025 | Before the open | 0.09 | 0.09 | +0.4% | -4.3% | -3.7% | -0.1% |
| May 1, 2025 | Before the open | 0.33 | 0.65 | +99.0% | -1.4% | -1.8% | -1.2% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -7.6% | -16.1% | -17.0% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -24.4% | -20.9% | -27.4% |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.1% | -2.2% | -1.3% |
| May 1, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.3% | -13.2% | -11.7% |
| Feb 5, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +18.9% | +12.0% | +6.9% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -15.2% | -18.9% | -10.4% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on EL and what the price did next.
- 8/19/2026PositiveEstée Lauder CEO Says Company Has 'Great Momentum'
- +1 day
- -1.1%
- +3 days
- +7.0%
- 8/19/2026PositiveEstee Lauder scatta nel premarket dopo i solidi risultati 2026
- +1 day
- +16.1%
- +3 days
- +21.2%
- 5/22/2026PositiveEstée Lauder Shares Rally After Ending Business Combination Talks With Puig
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 5/22/2026NegativeEstee Lauder-Puig Talks Collapse (Video)
- +1 day
- +11.5%
- +3 days
- +14.5%
- 5/22/2026NegativeEstee Lauder-Puig Talks Collapse
- +1 day
- +11.5%
- +3 days
- +14.5%
- 5/21/2026PositiveEstée Lauder Walks Away From Merger Talks — Stock Surges
- +1 day
- +11.5%
- +3 days
- +14.5%
- 4/1/2026PositiveEstée Lauder, Puig Advance Talks to Combine in Mostly Stock Deal
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for EL.
- 9/9/2026NEUTRALHow beauty giant Estee Lauder’s top technologist is betting on ‘AI everywhere’ to fuel its turnaround
Estee Lauder has announced an expanded role for its top technologist, Brian Franz, who oversees data, technology, and analytics. This move signals a strategic focus on integrating 'AI everywhere' across the company's operations, including its brands like M.A.C and Clinique. While the specific impact of this organizational change on future financial performance is yet to be determined, it suggests a proactive approach to leveraging technology for a potential turnaround. Investors will be watching for concrete results from this AI-driven strategy.
- 8/19/2026POSITIVEEstée Lauder CEO Says Company Has 'Great Momentum'
Estée Lauder CEO Stéphane de La Faverie highlighted strong 'momentum' and margin expansion, following a fiscal fourth quarter where the beauty giant surpassed revenue and earnings expectations. This positive outlook, coupled with the beat on key financial metrics, suggests a robust performance trajectory. Investors will be watching for continued execution on margin improvement and sustained sales growth in key product categories. The company's ability to outperform estimates in the current market environment indicates resilience and effective strategic management, potentially leading to increased investor confidence and stock price appreciation.
- 8/19/2026POSITIVEEstee Lauder scatta nel premarket dopo i solidi risultati 2026
Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is trading higher in pre-market activity following the release of its fiscal year 2026 results, which concluded on June 30, 2026. The beauty giant reported solid and strong growth figures for the period. While specific financial details are pending, the initial market reaction suggests investor optimism regarding the company's performance and future outlook. This positive momentum could lead to a sustained upward trend in the stock price, reflecting confidence in Estee Lauder's strategic execution and market position.
- 5/22/2026POSITIVEEstée Lauder Shares Rally After Ending Business Combination Talks With Puig
Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) saw its shares climb on Friday following the definitive termination of business combination discussions with Puig. The company's decision to end these talks suggests a strategic move to maintain its independence or pursue alternative growth strategies. Investors may interpret this as a positive development, indicating that the proposed combination was not deemed beneficial for shareholder value at this time, or that Estée Lauder is confident in its standalone prospects. The stock's upward movement reflects market approval of this outcome.
- 5/22/2026NEGATIVEEstee Lauder-Puig Talks Collapse
Talks for a potential multibillion-dollar acquisition of Puig by Estee Lauder have collapsed, reportedly due to compensation disputes involving makeup artist Charlotte Tilbury. This development comes as a surprise to investors, as negotiations had been ongoing since March. The failure of this strategic tie-up could impact Estee Lauder's growth prospects and market positioning, potentially leading to a reassessment of its valuation by the market.
- 5/22/2026NEGATIVEEstee Lauder-Puig Talks Collapse (Video)
Talks between Estée Lauder and Puig for a potential acquisition have reportedly collapsed, according to sources familiar with the matter. The luxury goods group Puig was reportedly exploring a deal to acquire Estée Lauder, a move that would have significantly reshaped the beauty industry landscape. The failure to reach an agreement suggests a substantial valuation gap or strategic misalignment between the two entities. For Estée Lauder investors, this news removes a potential catalyst for a significant share price revaluation, likely leading to a reassessment of the company's standalone growth prospects.
- 5/21/2026POSITIVEEstée Lauder Walks Away From Merger Talks — Stock Surges
Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) shares surged after the beauty giant announced the termination of merger talks with Puig. While specific details of the discussions were not disclosed, the market's positive reaction suggests investors viewed the potential acquisition by the Spanish family-owned company as a negative development or were concerned about the terms of a potential deal. The stock's pop indicates relief and a renewed focus on Estée Lauder's standalone strategy and future prospects.
- 4/1/2026POSITIVEEstée Lauder, Puig Advance Talks to Combine in Mostly Stock Deal
Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is reportedly advancing in talks with Spain's Puig Brands SA for a potential combination. This strategic move aims to forge one of the largest global luxury beauty conglomerates. The deal is expected to be structured primarily as a stock transaction, indicating a significant integration of ownership. For investors, this potential merger could unlock substantial synergies, enhance market positioning, and create a more formidable competitor in the high-end beauty sector, potentially leading to increased shareholder value.
- 3/24/2026NEUTRALEstée Lauder in Talks to Buy Puig to Create Beauty Giant
Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is reportedly in exclusive talks to acquire Puig Brands, a Spanish-based beauty company, in a potential deal valued at approximately $11.6 billion. This acquisition would forge a significant cosmetics conglomerate with combined annual sales nearing $20 billion. While the terms remain undisclosed, the strategic move aims to bolster Estée Lauder's market position and expand its portfolio. Investors will be closely monitoring the finalization of this deal and its impact on both companies' valuations and market share within the global beauty industry.