First Financial Bankshares, Inc. (FFIN)
Fair ValueFundamental
55
Price
$30.17
Market Cap
$4.27B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
First Financial Bankshares is a regional community bank holding company headquartered in Abilene, Texas. Through its subsidiary First Financial Bank, it operates 79 financial centers primarily serving Central, North Central, Southeast and West Texas. The bank serves consumers, small businesses, corporations, non-profit and governmental entities through eight regional operating divisions, each with local decision-making authority. The company maintains a localized operating model where regional presidents and advisory boards retain significant autonomy.
How it makes money
First Financial generates revenue through traditional banking operations. Net interest income of $426.7 million (77.5% of total revenue) comes from lending spreads on commercial, residential, agricultural and consumer loans, as well as interest earned on securities and deposits. Non-interest income of $124.0 million (22.5% of total revenue) comes from trust and wealth management fees ($47.4M), service charges on deposit accounts ($25.0M), debit card fees ($21.1M), mortgage loan origination gains and fees ($13.2M), and other fee-based services.
Revenue by segment
Owner-occupied and non-owner-occupied commercial real estate loans (CRE), including construction and development financing. Represents $2.1 billion of the loan portfolio (26.5%), serving Texas commercial real estate markets and construction enterprises.
C&I lending to various business segments and industries across served regions. Represents $1.2 billion of the loan portfolio (14.9%), providing working capital and growth financing to small and mid-sized businesses.
Residential mortgage loans serving homebuyers across Texas markets. Represents $2.2 billion of the loan portfolio (27.8%), reflecting the bank's focus on consumer lending in growing residential markets.
Farm and agricultural lending, including operating loans and equipment financing. Represents $0.4 billion of the loan portfolio (5.5%), reflecting the importance of agriculture in Texas economy and served regions.
Auto loans, home equity lines of credit, and non-auto consumer installment loans. Represents $0.8 billion of the loan portfolio (10.0%), serving individual customers with various credit needs.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowFirst Financial's competitive advantage rests primarily on switching costs derived from customer relationships and local market presence. The bank emphasizes personalized, relationship-based banking with eight regional operating divisions where local management retains decision-making authority. Long-tenured regional leadership (14-year average tenure) and internal promotion culture help preserve institutional knowledge and customer relationships. However, this advantage is narrow: larger regional and national banks can also build relationships and offer more comprehensive services; digital-only competitors and fintech firms reduce the friction of switching; and the company holds less than 1% of Texas deposits, limiting scale advantages.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalBanking demand follows moderate cyclicality. Deposit-taking and basic lending are defensive activities—customers need checking accounts and savings vehicles across all economic conditions. However, credit quality and profitability are cyclical. During economic expansions, loan demand is strong, credit losses are low, and net interest margins can be healthy. During recessions, loan demand weakens, credit losses rise significantly, and profit margins compress. Commercial lending (especially to construction and real estate), agricultural lending, and consumer auto loans are the most cyclical segments. The company's Texas focus amplifies cyclical exposure tied to regional economic cycles.
Key risks
- Interest Rate Risk — The company's profitability is highly dependent on net interest margins (the spread between loan yields and deposit costs). Falling interest rates compress margins and reduce net interest income. Rising rates improve margins but can impair the value of fixed-rate securities held in the investment portfolio and increase loan losses if economic activity slows. The company faces uncertainty in predicting future rate movements and their impact on customer behavior.
- Credit Risk and Loan Losses — First Financial faces credit risk across its loan portfolio. Nonperforming assets increased to 0.80% of loans as of December 31, 2024 (from 0.51% a year prior), and classified loans rose 21.8% to $245.6 million. Economic downturns, rising unemployment, falling commercial real estate values, or deterioration in agricultural conditions could increase loan losses. The company's geographic concentration in Texas and exposure to commercial real estate collateral values create amplified risk during regional economic stress.
- Geographic Concentration in Texas — All 79 banking centers are located in Texas, creating significant geographic concentration risk. The company's earnings and asset quality are heavily dependent on Texas economic conditions, employment trends, real estate values, and regional industries (including oil and gas, agriculture). A severe recession, natural disaster (hurricanes affecting Southeast Texas, droughts affecting agricultural regions), or industry-specific downturn in Texas could disproportionately harm the company.
- Regulatory and Compliance Risk — First Financial must comply with extensive banking regulations at federal and state levels, including capital requirements, liquidity standards, consumer protection rules, and anti-money laundering requirements. Changes in regulatory requirements (such as Basel III implementation, climate risk frameworks, or changes to FDIC insurance rules) may require additional capital or compliance investments. The company recently paid a $2.06 million FDIC special assessment, and future regulatory changes could impose additional costs.
- Competition and Market Pressures — Despite the company's claim of 'less intense' regional competition, it faces increasing competition from larger regional banks, national banks expanding into Texas, and fintech/digital-only competitors offering convenience and innovation. Larger competitors have advantages in technology investment, product offerings, digital banking platforms, and brand recognition. The shift toward digital banking and away from traditional branch relationships threatens the company's relationship-based competitive advantage.
- Liquidity and Funding Risk — First Financial relies on deposit funding to finance its loan portfolio. Increased competition from larger banks and non-bank financial institutions offering higher deposit rates or more attractive products could reduce deposit levels or require the company to pay higher rates to retain funding. In periods of financial stress or rising rates, deposit outflows could force the company to liquidate securities at unfavorable prices or reduce lending.
Customer concentration
First Financial Bankshares' business does not depend on any single customer or a few customers. The company serves a diversified base of consumers, small businesses, mid-sized corporations, non-profit organizations, and governmental entities across 79 banking centers in Texas. The filing explicitly states that the loss of any one customer would not have a materially adverse effect on the business. This diversification reduces customer concentration risk.
The case for
Buyers argue that First Financial offers attractive fundamentals for patient, value-oriented investors. The company operates in high-growth Texas markets with favorable demographics—regions like Cleburne (+31.3% population growth) and Granbury (+28.2%) provide organic tailwinds for lending and deposits. Net interest margins have benefited from the elevated interest rate environment, supporting 11.2% growth in net interest income year-over-year. The proven acquisition track record (14 bank acquisitions since 1997, growing assets from $1.57B to $14B) demonstrates management's ability to execute growth without major integration failures. Conservative capital management, disciplined underwriting, and a long history of stable dividends suggest the company can weather economic cycles. Localized decision-making and experienced regional management create customer loyalty that is difficult for larger competitors to replicate. At current valuations, the stock may offer attractive returns if interest rates stabilize at elevated levels and the Texas economy continues to grow.
The case against
Sellers fear that First Financial faces significant headwinds. Margin compression is an acute risk if interest rates fall from current elevated levels—the 2024 earnings benefited from rate stability, but lower rates would immediately compress spreads and reduce profitability. The rising trend in nonperforming assets (0.80% from 0.51%) and classified loans (+21.8%) signals emerging credit stress that could accelerate in a recession. Texas economic concentration is a liability: exposure to cyclical industries (oil and gas, agriculture), commercial real estate, and construction creates amplified downside risk during regional downturns or severe weather events. Competition from larger regional banks and digital competitors is intensifying, threatening the relationship-based advantage. At $14B in assets, First Financial lacks the scale to compete effectively on technology, product breadth, or operational efficiency. A recession would likely force provisions to rise sharply, compress margins, and impair credit quality—all hitting earnings simultaneously. The $2.06M FDIC special assessment signaled regulatory concerns, suggesting future compliance costs may rise. Capital constraints and modest scale relative to competitors limit strategic flexibility.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Another Texas-only multi-market community banking group competing for the same small-business and consumer accounts in secondary Texas cities rather than in the big-city corporate market.
Competes for Texas business deposits and commercial credit in the Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston and Austin markets where First Financial has been expanding.
Both run a community-bank model built on branch deposits and relationship lending to small businesses and households across the same Texas markets, from Houston and Bryan/College Station to West Texas.
Frost competes for the same Texas commercial deposits and middle-market loans, and its trust and wealth-management arm goes after the same clients as First Financial Trust & Asset Management.
A Texas bank of comparable size whose branches in East Texas, Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston overlap directly with First Financial's regions for retail deposits and local commercial real-estate lending.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$666M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$269M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$286M
Total Equity
$1.92B
Total Liabilities
$13.53B
Current Ratio
-
Interest Coverage
0.62
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$29.22
Current Price
$30.17
Margin of Safety
-3.2%
Fair Value Range
$22.85 - $35.60
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
16.13
ROE
13.2%
P/B Ratio
2.17
P/FCF
13.29
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
9.0%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (11)
- P/FCF 13.29
- P/B ratio 2.17
- Operating margin 49.3%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 15.5%
- Revenue growth 5Y 12.0%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.29
- Share dilution -0.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (11)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -2.12%
- Price CAGR 3.51%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average 0.9%
- PEG ratio 3.20
- Net margin trend 40.4% vs 41.5%
Unavailable (5)
- ROIC –
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. F. Scott Dueser | Executive Chairman | 72 |
| Mr. David W. Bailey | CEO & President | 41 |
| Ms. Michelle S. Hickox CPA | Executive VP, CFO, Secretary & Treasurer | 57 |
| Mr. Ronald D. Butler II | Executive VP & Chief Administrative Officer | 64 |
| Mr. Timothy Luke Longhofer | Executive VP & Chief Credit Officer | 42 |
| Mr. Timothy Brown | Executive VP & Chief Information Officer | 59 |
| Mr. J. Kyle McVey C.P.A. | Executive VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Investor Relations Director | 38 |
| Mr. Mike Parker | Executive VP & Chief Compliance Officer | - |
| Mr. Brian D. Goodrich | Executive VP & General Counsel | 52 |
| Ms. Violet Watson Griggs | Senior Vice President of Marketing | - |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
2
Shareholder Rights Risk
3
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-25
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-04
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-16
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much FFIN moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 9% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 19.8%
- Volatility 90d
- 20.7%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.42Correlation 0.23
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -18.4%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.43%
Earnings reactions
How FFIN moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 1.9% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | After the close | 0.53 | 0.52 | -2.3% | -0.2% | -1.7% | -1.0% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | After the close | 0.51 | 0.50 | -2.4% | 0.0% | -1.2% | -1.8% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | After the close | 0.49 | 0.51 | +4.6% | -0.1% | -2.1% | -2.8% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | After the close | 0.48 | 0.36 | -24.8% | +1.2% | +0.6% | -0.7% |
| Jul 17, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.1% | +1.4% | +0.2% |
| Apr 17, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.4% | -1.3% | +2.1% |
| Jan 23, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.1% | +3.4% | +3.0% |
| Oct 17, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.1% | -1.2% | -5.1% |
| Jul 18, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.4% | +2.5% | +10.4% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.8% | +4.2% | +5.6% |
| Jan 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.9% | +6.8% | +4.2% |
| Oct 19, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.7% | -5.7% | -0.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on FFIN and what the price did next.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for FFIN.