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First Financial Bankshares, Inc. (FFIN)

Fair Value
Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalUnited States

Fundamental

55

Price

$30.17

Market Cap

$4.27B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

First Financial Bankshares is a regional community bank holding company headquartered in Abilene, Texas. Through its subsidiary First Financial Bank, it operates 79 financial centers primarily serving Central, North Central, Southeast and West Texas. The bank serves consumers, small businesses, corporations, non-profit and governmental entities through eight regional operating divisions, each with local decision-making authority. The company maintains a localized operating model where regional presidents and advisory boards retain significant autonomy.

How it makes money

First Financial generates revenue through traditional banking operations. Net interest income of $426.7 million (77.5% of total revenue) comes from lending spreads on commercial, residential, agricultural and consumer loans, as well as interest earned on securities and deposits. Non-interest income of $124.0 million (22.5% of total revenue) comes from trust and wealth management fees ($47.4M), service charges on deposit accounts ($25.0M), debit card fees ($21.1M), mortgage loan origination gains and fees ($13.2M), and other fee-based services.

Revenue by segment

Commercial Real Estateshare not disclosed

Owner-occupied and non-owner-occupied commercial real estate loans (CRE), including construction and development financing. Represents $2.1 billion of the loan portfolio (26.5%), serving Texas commercial real estate markets and construction enterprises.

Commercial and Industrialshare not disclosed

C&I lending to various business segments and industries across served regions. Represents $1.2 billion of the loan portfolio (14.9%), providing working capital and growth financing to small and mid-sized businesses.

Residential Real Estateshare not disclosed

Residential mortgage loans serving homebuyers across Texas markets. Represents $2.2 billion of the loan portfolio (27.8%), reflecting the bank's focus on consumer lending in growing residential markets.

Agriculturalshare not disclosed

Farm and agricultural lending, including operating loans and equipment financing. Represents $0.4 billion of the loan portfolio (5.5%), reflecting the importance of agriculture in Texas economy and served regions.

Consumershare not disclosed

Auto loans, home equity lines of credit, and non-auto consumer installment loans. Represents $0.8 billion of the loan portfolio (10.0%), serving individual customers with various credit needs.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Narrow

First Financial's competitive advantage rests primarily on switching costs derived from customer relationships and local market presence. The bank emphasizes personalized, relationship-based banking with eight regional operating divisions where local management retains decision-making authority. Long-tenured regional leadership (14-year average tenure) and internal promotion culture help preserve institutional knowledge and customer relationships. However, this advantage is narrow: larger regional and national banks can also build relationships and offer more comprehensive services; digital-only competitors and fintech firms reduce the friction of switching; and the company holds less than 1% of Texas deposits, limiting scale advantages.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Banking demand follows moderate cyclicality. Deposit-taking and basic lending are defensive activities—customers need checking accounts and savings vehicles across all economic conditions. However, credit quality and profitability are cyclical. During economic expansions, loan demand is strong, credit losses are low, and net interest margins can be healthy. During recessions, loan demand weakens, credit losses rise significantly, and profit margins compress. Commercial lending (especially to construction and real estate), agricultural lending, and consumer auto loans are the most cyclical segments. The company's Texas focus amplifies cyclical exposure tied to regional economic cycles.

Key risks

  • Interest Rate Risk — The company's profitability is highly dependent on net interest margins (the spread between loan yields and deposit costs). Falling interest rates compress margins and reduce net interest income. Rising rates improve margins but can impair the value of fixed-rate securities held in the investment portfolio and increase loan losses if economic activity slows. The company faces uncertainty in predicting future rate movements and their impact on customer behavior.
  • Credit Risk and Loan Losses — First Financial faces credit risk across its loan portfolio. Nonperforming assets increased to 0.80% of loans as of December 31, 2024 (from 0.51% a year prior), and classified loans rose 21.8% to $245.6 million. Economic downturns, rising unemployment, falling commercial real estate values, or deterioration in agricultural conditions could increase loan losses. The company's geographic concentration in Texas and exposure to commercial real estate collateral values create amplified risk during regional economic stress.
  • Geographic Concentration in Texas — All 79 banking centers are located in Texas, creating significant geographic concentration risk. The company's earnings and asset quality are heavily dependent on Texas economic conditions, employment trends, real estate values, and regional industries (including oil and gas, agriculture). A severe recession, natural disaster (hurricanes affecting Southeast Texas, droughts affecting agricultural regions), or industry-specific downturn in Texas could disproportionately harm the company.
  • Regulatory and Compliance Risk — First Financial must comply with extensive banking regulations at federal and state levels, including capital requirements, liquidity standards, consumer protection rules, and anti-money laundering requirements. Changes in regulatory requirements (such as Basel III implementation, climate risk frameworks, or changes to FDIC insurance rules) may require additional capital or compliance investments. The company recently paid a $2.06 million FDIC special assessment, and future regulatory changes could impose additional costs.
  • Competition and Market Pressures — Despite the company's claim of 'less intense' regional competition, it faces increasing competition from larger regional banks, national banks expanding into Texas, and fintech/digital-only competitors offering convenience and innovation. Larger competitors have advantages in technology investment, product offerings, digital banking platforms, and brand recognition. The shift toward digital banking and away from traditional branch relationships threatens the company's relationship-based competitive advantage.
  • Liquidity and Funding Risk — First Financial relies on deposit funding to finance its loan portfolio. Increased competition from larger banks and non-bank financial institutions offering higher deposit rates or more attractive products could reduce deposit levels or require the company to pay higher rates to retain funding. In periods of financial stress or rising rates, deposit outflows could force the company to liquidate securities at unfavorable prices or reduce lending.

Customer concentration

First Financial Bankshares' business does not depend on any single customer or a few customers. The company serves a diversified base of consumers, small businesses, mid-sized corporations, non-profit organizations, and governmental entities across 79 banking centers in Texas. The filing explicitly states that the loss of any one customer would not have a materially adverse effect on the business. This diversification reduces customer concentration risk.

The case for

Buyers argue that First Financial offers attractive fundamentals for patient, value-oriented investors. The company operates in high-growth Texas markets with favorable demographics—regions like Cleburne (+31.3% population growth) and Granbury (+28.2%) provide organic tailwinds for lending and deposits. Net interest margins have benefited from the elevated interest rate environment, supporting 11.2% growth in net interest income year-over-year. The proven acquisition track record (14 bank acquisitions since 1997, growing assets from $1.57B to $14B) demonstrates management's ability to execute growth without major integration failures. Conservative capital management, disciplined underwriting, and a long history of stable dividends suggest the company can weather economic cycles. Localized decision-making and experienced regional management create customer loyalty that is difficult for larger competitors to replicate. At current valuations, the stock may offer attractive returns if interest rates stabilize at elevated levels and the Texas economy continues to grow.

The case against

Sellers fear that First Financial faces significant headwinds. Margin compression is an acute risk if interest rates fall from current elevated levels—the 2024 earnings benefited from rate stability, but lower rates would immediately compress spreads and reduce profitability. The rising trend in nonperforming assets (0.80% from 0.51%) and classified loans (+21.8%) signals emerging credit stress that could accelerate in a recession. Texas economic concentration is a liability: exposure to cyclical industries (oil and gas, agriculture), commercial real estate, and construction creates amplified downside risk during regional downturns or severe weather events. Competition from larger regional banks and digital competitors is intensifying, threatening the relationship-based advantage. At $14B in assets, First Financial lacks the scale to compete effectively on technology, product breadth, or operational efficiency. A recession would likely force provisions to rise sharply, compress margins, and impair credit quality—all hitting earnings simultaneously. The $2.06M FDIC special assessment signaled regulatory concerns, suggesting future compliance costs may rise. Capital constraints and modest scale relative to competitors limit strategic flexibility.

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 10.1Score: 69Market cap: $4.11B

Another Texas-only multi-market community banking group competing for the same small-business and consumer accounts in secondary Texas cities rather than in the big-city corporate market.

P/E: 13.3Score: 80Market cap: $4.06B

Competes for Texas business deposits and commercial credit in the Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston and Austin markets where First Financial has been expanding.

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.PB

Both run a community-bank model built on branch deposits and relationship lending to small businesses and households across the same Texas markets, from Houston and Bryan/College Station to West Texas.

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (Frost Bank)CFR

Frost competes for the same Texas commercial deposits and middle-market loans, and its trust and wealth-management arm goes after the same clients as First Financial Trust & Asset Management.

Southside Bancshares, Inc.SBSI

A Texas bank of comparable size whose branches in East Texas, Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston overlap directly with First Financial's regions for retail deposits and local commercial real-estate lending.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$666M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$269M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$286M

Total Equity

$1.92B

Total Liabilities

$13.53B

Current Ratio

-

Interest Coverage

0.62

Debt/EBITDA

-

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

BankFairly Valued

Fair Value

$29.22

Current Price

$30.17

Margin of Safety

-3.2%

Fair Value Range

$22.85 - $35.60

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$34.71
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$30.69
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):Not applicable to this type of company
Justified P/B:$30.85
Dividend discount (Gordon):$15.45
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:Not applicable to this type of company
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Last Earnings Surprise:-2.24%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

16.13

ROE

13.2%

P/B Ratio

2.17

P/FCF

13.29

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

-

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-

WACC

9.0%

ROIC − WACC

-

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (11)

  • P/FCF 13.29
  • P/B ratio 2.17
  • Operating margin 49.3%
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 15.5%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 12.0%
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.29
  • Share dilution -0.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (11)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -2.12%
  • Price CAGR 3.51%
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings surprise, average 0.9%
  • PEG ratio 3.20
  • Net margin trend 40.4% vs 41.5%

Unavailable (5)

  • ROIC –
  • Gross margin –
  • Dividend payout –
  • Current ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

1.29

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

0.0%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. F. Scott DueserExecutive Chairman72
Mr. David W. BaileyCEO & President41
Ms. Michelle S. Hickox CPAExecutive VP, CFO, Secretary & Treasurer57
Mr. Ronald D. Butler IIExecutive VP & Chief Administrative Officer64
Mr. Timothy Luke LonghoferExecutive VP & Chief Credit Officer42
Mr. Timothy BrownExecutive VP & Chief Information Officer59
Mr. J. Kyle McVey C.P.A.Executive VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Investor Relations Director38
Mr. Mike ParkerExecutive VP & Chief Compliance Officer-
Mr. Brian D. GoodrichExecutive VP & General Counsel52
Ms. Violet Watson GriggsSenior Vice President of Marketing-

Audit Risk

4

Board Risk

4

Compensation Risk

2

Shareholder Rights Risk

3

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-25

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-04

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-16

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much FFIN moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityLow

More volatile than 9% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
19.8%
Volatility 90d
20.7%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
0.42Correlation 0.23
Max drawdown (12m)
-18.4%
ATR (14d, % of price)
2.43%

Earnings reactions

How FFIN moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

No upcoming release on the calendar.

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 1.9% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Oct 16, 2026After the close0.530.52-2.3% -0.2% -1.7% -1.0%
Jul 17, 2026After the close0.510.50-2.4% 0.0% -1.2% -1.8%
Jan 23, 2026After the close0.490.51+4.6% -0.1% -2.1% -2.8%
Oct 24, 2025After the close0.480.36-24.8% +1.2% +0.6% -0.7%
Jul 17, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+5.1% +1.4% +0.2%
Apr 17, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-2.4% -1.3% +2.1%
Jan 23, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-0.1% +3.4% +3.0%
Oct 17, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-0.1% -1.2% -5.1%
Jul 18, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+3.4% +2.5% +10.4%
Apr 18, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-0.8% +4.2% +5.6%
Jan 25, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+1.9% +6.8% +4.2%
Oct 19, 2023After the closen/an/an/a-0.7% -5.7% -0.9%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on FFIN and what the price did next.

No positive or negative news on FFIN has been archived yet.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for FFIN.

No recent news for FFIN.