FINCANTIERI S.P.A. (FNCNF)
UndervaluedFundamental
75
Price
$13.45
Market Cap
$5.24B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Fincantieri is an Italian shipbuilding group, controlled by the Italian state, that designs and builds large, complex ships. Its core work is cruise ships for the major cruise lines and naval vessels for the Italian Navy and foreign navies. Through its Norwegian subsidiary VARD it also builds offshore and specialised vessels. Since 2025, after taking over WASS Submarine Systems, it also has an underwater business that makes torpedoes and underwater systems. A fourth arm supplies ship systems, mechanical and electronic components, and infrastructure such as steel structures. In 2025 it posted revenue of €9,194 million, delivered 24 ships and ended the year with a record €63.2 billion of total workload.
How it makes money
Fincantieri earns most of its money from long, multi-year contracts to build individual ships: a cruise line or a navy orders one or more vessels, and the revenue is booked as construction moves forward over several years. Because orders are signed years before delivery, the company works from a large backlog: at the end of 2025 the total workload was 6.9 times that year's revenue, with deliveries planned out to 2037. Smaller revenue streams come from selling systems and components, from infrastructure work and from underwater equipment such as heavyweight torpedoes, some of it sold to other shipbuilders and navies.
Revenue by segment
Cruise ships for cruise groups such as Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Viking and TUI Cruises, plus naval vessels for the Italian Navy and foreign navies. Cruise ships made up about 44% and defence about 21% of consolidated revenue in 2025.
Through VARD, highly technological specialised ships for offshore energy and other niche uses, including vessels for robotic and remote operations, such as the multi-purpose robotic vessels ordered by Ocean Infinity.
Electronic and digital systems, mechanical components and infrastructure works such as steel structures, sold both to the group's own shipyards and to outside customers.
Submarines work, torpedoes and underwater systems for navies, strengthened in 2025 by WASS Submarine Systems, which signed a contract to supply Black Shark Advanced heavyweight torpedoes to the Indian Navy.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowBuilding large cruise ships and warships takes huge shipyards, a skilled workforce and decades of know-how, so only a few groups in the world can take on these orders. Fincantieri's backlog shows that customers keep coming back: it signed €20.3 billion of new orders in 2025 and holds 97 ships in its order book. The advantage is real but narrow: margins stay thin (EBITDA margin 7.4% in 2025), which shows that customers still have strong bargaining power and that fixed-price contracts leave little room for error.
What drives demand
CyclicalCruise orders follow the cruise industry's cycle: when travel demand and cruise lines' finances are strong, they order new ships, and when they weaken, orders dry up and deliveries can be pushed back. Defence demand depends on government budgets, which are currently rising with geopolitical tensions and tend to move independently of the economy. The long backlog smooths the cycle, because today's revenue comes from orders signed years ago, but new orders are what set revenue several years out.
Customer concentration
The 2025 results release does not give the revenue share of the largest customers. Concentration is high by the nature of the business, though: cruise ships, about 44% of consolidated revenue, are built for a small number of cruise groups (2025 orders came from Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Viking, Four Seasons Yachts, Crystal and TUI Cruises), and defence work depends mostly on the Italian Navy and a few foreign governments.
The case for
Buyers argue that a record €63.2 billion workload, 6.9 times 2025 revenue, gives unusual visibility for years. They point to profitability that is finally improving: EBITDA up 33.9% to €681 million and the highest net profit in the group's history at €117 million. They note that the underwater business, with an EBITDA margin of about 17.6%, and defence orders tied to rising military spending could lift group margins over time.
The case against
Sellers fear that thin margins, an EBITDA margin of 7.4%, leave little cushion if costs rise on long fixed-price contracts signed years in advance. They also worry about dependence on a handful of cruise groups, whose orders could slow or be delayed if travel demand weakens. Another concern is the debt load: adjusted net debt was €1,311 million at the end of 2025.
Generated with artificial intelligence on October 23, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
The French yard at Saint-Nazaire bids for the same large cruise-ship newbuild orders from operators such as MSC and Royal Caribbean that make up Fincantieri's biggest revenue line, and also competes on naval surface vessels.
The Papenburg shipbuilder builds large cruise ships for the same handful of global cruise groups, and took the MSC order for a new 180,000 gt class that Fincantieri's Italian yards were also chasing.
The German group competes head-to-head with Fincantieri for conventional submarine and frigate contracts from European navies and export customers.
The French state-controlled naval builder bids against Fincantieri for frigate, corvette and submarine programmes in Europe and in export markets, even where the two also cooperate through the Naviris joint venture.
The Spanish state-owned yard competes for the same naval surface-ship tenders as Fincantieri, including international competitions such as Australia's future frigate programme.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$9.53B
Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics
Net Income
$199M
Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics
Free Cash Flow
$656M
Total Equity
$1.92B
Total Liabilities
$2.51B
Current Ratio
0.92
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
4.14
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$21.77
Current Price
$13.45
Margin of Safety
+38.2%
Fair Value Range
$14.15 - $29.38
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
25.62
ROE
14.9%
P/B Ratio
2.98
P/FCF
7.99
Gross Margin
26.2%
ROIC
7.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
7.8%
WACC
5.5%
ROIC − WACC
+2.3 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (14)
- Price CAGR 35.31%
- ROIC 7.8%
- P/FCF 7.99
- P/B ratio 2.98
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 14.6%
- Revenue growth 5Y 9.4%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 5.57
- Net margin trend 1.3% vs 0.4%
Failed (5)
- Gross margin 26.2%
- Operating margin 4.2%
- Price below Graham Number
- Earnings surprise, average -171.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Unavailable (7)
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend payout –
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Share dilution (missing share count)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
No institutional filings reported for this company.
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Pierroberto Folgiero | CEO, MD & Director | 53 |
| Mr. Giuseppe Dado | Chief Financial Officer | - |
| Mr. Felice Bonavolontà | Group Accounting & Administration Head | - |
| Ms. Alessandra Battaglia | Secretary | 50 |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
7
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much FNCNF moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 64% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 38.1%
- Volatility 90d
- 42.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.71Correlation 0.19
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -59.4%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 0.78%
Earnings reactions
How FNCNF moved around its past quarterly results.
No earnings releases recorded yet for FNCNF. This can happen with recent listings or with companies that do not file 8-K reports with the SEC.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on FNCNF and what the price did next.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for FNCNF.