HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA)
UndervaluedFundamental
81
Price
$469.03
Market Cap
$101.91B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
HCA Healthcare is a leading U.S. health care services company that operates a comprehensive network of hospitals and outpatient facilities. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated 190 hospitals (including general acute care, behavioral, and rehabilitation) and over 150 freestanding ambulatory surgery centers and endoscopy centers across 19 U.S. states and England.
How it makes money
The company generates revenue by providing medical and surgical services to patients, with payments received from federal and state government programs (Medicare and Medicaid), managed care plans, private insurers, and directly from patients. Reimbursement rates vary significantly based on the payer type, service provided, and geographic location.
Revenue by segment
This segment includes facilities located in the American region, which is heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas.
This segment comprises facilities located in the Atlantic region of the United States.
This segment includes hospitals and outpatient facilities located in specific U.S. markets designated as the National Group.
This category includes revenues from corporate activities and other operations not allocated to the three primary geographic segments.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowHCA leverages economies of scale to negotiate national supply contracts and provide enterprise-level support services, which helps drive cost-effectiveness. However, the company faces significant competition from other health care providers for patients and staffing, limiting the durability of this advantage.
What drives demand
DefensiveDemand for hospital and health care services is generally stable and driven by demographic trends such as aging populations, rather than economic cycles. However, reimbursement rates are subject to government policy changes.
Key risks
- Significant Indebtedness — The company has significant debt, which could limit its ability to raise capital, react to economic changes, and meet obligations. Debt covenants also restrict operational flexibility.
- Health Care Regulation and Policy Changes — Changes in government health care programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates, or new regulations could adversely affect revenues and business operations.
- Workforce Shortages and Labor Costs — Competition for staffing, particularly nurses and physicians, and labor union activity could increase costs and adversely affect operations. The company may be unable to attract and retain a qualified workforce.
- Cybersecurity and Data Privacy — The company faces risks from cybersecurity incidents or data breaches that could compromise patient data, disrupt operations, and lead to liability under privacy laws.
- Geographic Concentration — Facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas, making the company sensitive to regulatory, economic, and environmental conditions in those states.
Customer concentration
The filing does not disclose the revenue share of specific top customers. Revenue is derived from a diverse mix of payers including Medicare, Medicaid, managed care plans, and private insurers.
The case for
Buyers argue that HCA benefits from economies of scale, a comprehensive network of facilities, and disciplined capital allocation. The company's strategy to grow in existing markets and advance digital capabilities positions it to deliver cost-effective care while maintaining high quality.
The case against
Sellers fear that high debt levels limit financial flexibility, while regulatory changes and payer pressure could squeeze margins. Additionally, workforce shortages and cybersecurity risks pose significant operational threats.
Generated with artificial intelligence on October 23, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
The closest for-profit peer to HCA: Tenet runs acute care hospitals and a large ambulatory surgery platform in many of the same Sun Belt metro markets, competing for the same patients, the same physicians and the same commercial insurance contracts.
Operates general acute care hospitals alongside the largest US network of behavioral health facilities, overlapping with HCA's hospitals in states such as Nevada, Texas and Florida for the same inpatient admissions and payer contracts.
A for-profit chain of acute care hospitals concentrated in smaller cities and suburban markets across the South and Midwest, competing with HCA for community hospital volumes and for physician recruitment in overlapping states.
Runs about 30 acute care hospitals and roughly 280 sites of care in mid-sized urban markets in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Idaho and New Jersey, several of which overlap directly with HCA's hospital networks.
One of the largest non-profit hospital systems in the United States, with facilities in Tennessee, Texas and Florida that draw the same patients as HCA's hospitals; HCA's own 10-K singles out such tax-exempt systems as its competition.
A non-profit system of more than 140 hospitals born from the Dignity Health–CHI merger, competing with HCA for inpatient and outpatient volumes in Texas, Colorado, Nevada and California.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$76.39B
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Net Income
$6.79B
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$7.69B
Total Equity
$-6.03B
Total Liabilities
$63.49B
Current Ratio
0.83
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
3.17
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$692.32
Current Price
$469.03
Margin of Safety
+32.3%
Fair Value Range
$450.01 - $934.63
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
16.16
ROE
-112.6%
P/B Ratio
-
P/FCF
13.13
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
8.3%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (17)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 16.56%
- Price CAGR 20.32%
- P/FCF 13.13
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 695.7%
- Revenue growth 5Y 8.0%
- Earnings surprise, average 7.2%
- PEG ratio 0.70
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.91
- Share dilution -8.5%
- Net margin trend 8.9% vs 8.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (2)
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
Unavailable (8)
- ROIC –
- Gross margin –
- P/B ratio –
- Dividend payout –
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin –
- Interest coverage
- Price below Graham Number
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Samuel N. Hazen | CEO & Director | 65 |
| Mr. Michael A. Marks | CFO & Executive VP | 55 |
| Mr. Jon Mack Foster | Executive VP & COO | 63 |
| Mr. Michael R. McAlevey | Executive VP and Chief Legal & Administrative Officer | 61 |
| Dr. Michael S. Cuffe M.B.A., M.D. | Executive Officer | 59 |
| Dr. Thomas F. Frist Jr., M.D. | Founder & Chairman Emeritus | 86 |
| Mr. Christopher F. Wyatt | Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller | 47 |
| Mr. Chad J. Wasserman | Senior VP & Chief Information Officer | - |
| Mr. Frank George Morgan C.F.A. | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Wendy Warren | Senior VP and Chief Ethics & Compliance Officer | - |
Audit Risk
8
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
4
Shareholder Rights Risk
3
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-10
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-28
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-07-29
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much HCA moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 42% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 23.1%
- Volatility 90d
- 33.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.16Correlation 0.06
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -33.7%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.50%
Earnings reactions
How HCA moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 27, 2026 · In 3 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 6.63Revenue estimate: $19.3B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 4.2% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Before the open | 7.54 | 7.62 | +1.0% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +5.1% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Before the open | 7.21 | 7.15 | -0.8% | -9.3% | -8.8% | -8.3% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Before the open | 7.53 | 8.14 | +8.0% | +6.9% | +7.1% | +5.2% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Before the open | 5.77 | 6.96 | +20.6% | +3.9% | +1.6% | +6.1% |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.6% | -2.1% | +3.7% |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.6% | -4.0% | +0.5% |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.4% | -3.8% | +2.8% |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -7.2% | -8.9% | -10.1% |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.5% | +4.5% | +10.2% |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.3% | -2.4% | -1.7% |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.6% | +5.2% | +8.3% |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -9.2% | -4.5% | -7.3% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on HCA and what the price did next.
- 4/24/2026PositiveHCA Healthcare Earnings Are Imminent; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call
- +1 day
- -9.5%
- +3 days
- -9.3%
- 2/26/2026PositiveHere's How Much $1000 Invested In HCA Healthcare 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for HCA.
- 6/15/2026NEUTRALHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning HCA Healthcare Stock In The Last 15 Years
An analysis of HCA Healthcare Inc. stock reveals its performance over the past 15 years. While the article title suggests a focus on potential returns for investors, the content itself is not provided, making it impossible to ascertain specific financial metrics, growth drivers, or any recent developments. Therefore, without detailed information on earnings, strategic initiatives, or market positioning, a definitive assessment of its current investment appeal or future outlook cannot be made. The historical performance, while potentially positive, does not offer actionable insights for present trading decisions.
- 4/24/2026NEUTRALHCA Healthcare Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
HCA Healthcare is scheduled to hold its Q1 2026 Earnings Call on April 24, 2026. While the transcript is available, the provided information does not contain the actual earnings results, forward-looking guidance, or any specific operational updates that would allow for an assessment of financial performance or market impact. Investors should consult the full transcript or subsequent reports for detailed financial figures, management commentary on performance drivers, and future outlook.
- 4/24/2026POSITIVEHCA Healthcare Earnings Are Imminent; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call
HCA Healthcare is poised to report its Q1 earnings on April 24th, with analysts projecting earnings per share of $7.15, a notable increase from $6.45 in the prior year. This upward revision in forecasts by analysts, who are recognized for their accuracy, suggests a positive outlook for the company's performance. The stock's modest 0.6% gain on Thursday further indicates investor optimism ahead of the earnings call. For investors, this anticipated earnings growth and analyst confidence signal potential for continued stock appreciation.
- 4/23/2026NEUTRALHow To Earn $500 A Month From HCA Healthcare Stock Ahead Of Q1 Earnings
HCA Healthcare offers an annual dividend yield of 0.66%, equating to $3.12 per share annually. The article explores strategies for investors to generate approximately $500 per month from this dividend, suggesting a focus on dividend reinvestment or accumulation strategies. While the dividend itself is a positive attribute for income-focused investors, the news primarily focuses on a strategy for income generation rather than a direct catalyst for stock price appreciation ahead of Q1 earnings. The actual Q1 earnings results, which are not yet released, will be the primary driver of short-term stock movement.
- 2/26/2026POSITIVEHere's How Much $1000 Invested In HCA Healthcare 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
A retrospective analysis of an investment in HCA Healthcare reveals exceptional performance for long-term shareholders. An initial $1,000 investment made 15 years ago would today be worth a significantly larger sum, underscoring the robust and consistent growth of the healthcare sector and, specifically, this leading company. HCA Healthcare's ability to generate value over time, navigating economic cycles and market challenges, highlights its resilience and the strength of its business model. This data not only celebrates past success but also offers insights into the potential of strategic, long-term investments in defensive sectors and companies with solid fundamentals.