Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)
OvervaluedFundamental
69
Price
$269.42
Market Cap
$39.64B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Illumina makes the machines and chemical kits that read DNA: a lab buys a sequencer once, then keeps buying Illumina's proprietary reagents every time it runs a sample. Its instruments are used across research, clinical diagnostics and reproductive health to decode genetic material at a cost that has fallen by orders of magnitude since the company's founding, turning sequencing from a rare research tool into something clinics can order routinely.
How it makes money
The business follows a razor-and-blade model: instruments are a one-time, low-margin sale that puts an Illumina sequencer into a lab, while the consumable reagent kits a lab must keep buying to run each sample carry far higher margins and repeat every time. Because reagents are chemically matched to Illumina's own machines, a lab that has already bought the instrument keeps buying Illumina's consumables for as long as it keeps using it.
Revenue by segment
The reagent kits a lab must repurchase every time it runs a sample, the recurring core of Illumina's revenue.
Instrument maintenance, extended support contracts and other smaller revenue streams that accompany the installed base of sequencers.
The one-time, lower-margin sale of sequencing machines that puts a new lab into Illumina's growing installed base.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowA lab that has installed an Illumina sequencer, validated its clinical or research protocols around it and trained staff on its software keeps buying Illumina's proprietary reagents rather than re-qualifying an entire workflow on a rival machine. That lock-in is weakening: newer entrants such as MGI, Element Biosciences and Ultima Genomics now offer sequencing at competitive cost, giving labs a real alternative when they next replace equipment.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalConsumables revenue is fairly steady, since labs keep running existing sequencers regardless of the economic cycle, but instrument sales depend on research budgets, venture funding for biotech and hospital capital spending, all of which slow in a downturn. Demand also depends on regulatory and government funding decisions in specific countries, which can swing sharply and are outside Illumina's control.
Key risks
- Competitive erosion of its installed base — Newer sequencing technologies from competitors such as MGI, Element Biosciences and Ultima Genomics now offer lower-cost alternatives, and a lab that switches instrument no longer needs Illumina's consumables.
- Dependence on research funding and biotech capital — A meaningful share of demand comes from academic, government and biotech research budgets; cuts to public science funding or a slowdown in biotech venture funding reduce instrument and consumable purchases.
- Government and geographic policy risk — Trade restrictions, tariffs and country-specific regulatory or reimbursement decisions have already affected sales in some markets, including China, and can change with little warning.
- Pricing pressure on consumables — As competing sequencing platforms mature, Illumina has had to defend its consumables pricing, and a sustained price war would erode the margin the razor-and-blade model depends on.
The case for
Buyers argue that Illumina's enormous installed base of sequencers locks in years of high-margin consumables revenue almost regardless of which machine a lab buys next, and that falling sequencing costs keep expanding genetic testing into new clinical uses that did not exist a decade ago.
The case against
Sellers fear that lower-cost sequencing challengers are gaining real traction, that a lab switching instruments takes its recurring consumables revenue with it, and that research funding cuts or trade restrictions in key markets can hit demand for reasons that have nothing to do with Illumina's own execution.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Thermo Fisher sells its own sequencers, arrays and reagents (Ion Torrent, Applied Biosystems) to the same research labs, hospitals and pharma customers Illumina supplies, and is the only rival with a comparably broad genomics catalogue.
MGI's DNBSEQ instruments attack exactly Illumina's high-throughput short-read business, undercutting it on cost per genome and dominating the Chinese market where Illumina's share has eroded.
Oxford Nanopore's nanopore devices compete for the same sequencing budgets in research and clinical labs, offering long reads and portable instruments as an alternative to Illumina's short-read platforms.
PacBio sells HiFi long-read sequencers and consumables to the same genome centres and clinical researchers, and with its Onso short-read system competes head-on with Illumina's core instruments.
Element's AVITI benchtop sequencer targets the mid-throughput short-read labs that make up much of Illumina's installed base, competing on instrument price and cost per gigabase.
Ultima's UG 100 platform courts the same large-scale population and biopharma sequencing projects Illumina relies on, competing explicitly on cost per genome at very high throughput.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$4.34B
Fiscal year ended 12/28/2025
Net Income
$850M
Fiscal year ended 12/28/2025
Free Cash Flow
$931M
Total Equity
$2.72B
Total Liabilities
$3.92B
Current Ratio
1.80
Interest Coverage
7.99
Debt/EBITDA
2.35
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$163.92
Current Price
$269.42
Margin of Safety
-64.4%
Fair Value Range
$106.55 - $221.29
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
48.17
ROE
31.2%
P/B Ratio
14.33
P/FCF
43.70
Gross Margin
66.1%
ROIC
12.6%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
12.6%
WACC
11.8%
ROIC − WACC
+0.8 pp
ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (19)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 18.60%
- Price CAGR 7.45%
- ROIC 12.6%
- Gross margin 66.1%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 18.6%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 31.1%
- Revenue growth 5Y 6.0%
- Earnings surprise, average 7.8%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.33
- Share dilution -1.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9
Failed (6)
- P/FCF 43.70
- P/B ratio 14.33
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- PEG ratio 11.39
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend payout –
- Net margin trend (invalid data)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Jacob Thaysen Ph.D. | CEO & Director | 50 |
| Mr. Ankur Dhingra CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 49 |
| Mr. Kevin Carl Pegels | Chief of Global Operations | 57 |
| Dr. Steven Barnard Ph.D. | Chief Technology Officer | 64 |
| Stephanie Campos | President | - |
| Mr. Scott Ericksen | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 52 |
| Mr. Mark Field | Chief Information Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Conor Noel McNamara C.F.A. | VP of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Julie Ann Coletti J.D. | Chief Legal Officer | 57 |
| Mr. Jakob Wedel | Chief Strategy & Corporate Development Officer | 53 |
Audit Risk
2
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
6
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-12
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-31
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-13
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much ILMN moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 72% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 56.9%
- Volatility 90d
- 48.3%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.82Correlation 0.21
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -25.7%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 5.23%
Earnings reactions
How ILMN moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 29, 2026 · In 5 days · After the close
EPS estimate: 1.36Revenue estimate: $1.2B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.0% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 1.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | After the close | 1.25 | 1.31 | +4.7% | -0.9% | 0.0% | -5.5% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | After the close | 1.08 | 1.15 | +6.9% | +5.1% | +7.1% | +9.4% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | After the close | 1.08 | 1.15 | +6.9% | -5.7% | -10.4% | -14.3% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | After the close | 1.19 | 1.34 | +12.7% | +8.0% | +24.8% | +22.3% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -9.8% | -7.8% | -7.0% |
| May 8, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.1% | -4.8% | +1.7% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -9.4% | -9.6% | -17.1% |
| Nov 4, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.5% | +1.0% | -1.3% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.0% | +4.1% | +2.9% |
| May 2, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.5% | -4.9% | -10.2% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.3% | -3.8% | +1.9% |
| Nov 9, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -12.1% | -8.0% | -11.0% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on ILMN and what the price did next.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ILMN.