Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)
OvervaluedFundamental
41
Price
$756.17
Market Cap
$77.06B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers component products, including semiconductor laser chips, laser sub-assemblies, line subsystems, and wavelength management systems. The company also offers system products, such as optical modules, optical circuit switches, and industrial lasers, including short-pulse solid-state lasers and kilowatt-class fiber lasers. Its products and solutions are used in cloud, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), telecommunications, consumer, and industrial end-market applications. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
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Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
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No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$3.01B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Net Income
$-6.94B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$300M
Total Equity
$4.64B
Total Liabilities
$2.66B
Current Ratio
1.68
Interest Coverage
24.07
Debt/EBITDA
4.08
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$620.76
Current Price
$756.17
Margin of Safety
-21.8%
Fair Value Range
$403.50 - $838.03
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-149.3%
P/B Ratio
14.61
P/FCF
226.02
Gross Margin
41.7%
ROIC
8.6%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
8.6%
WACC
12.9%
ROIC − WACC
-4.3 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (12)
- Price CAGR 37.56%
- ROIC 8.6%
- Gross margin 41.7%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 17.4%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Revenue growth 5Y 11.6%
- Earnings surprise, average 7.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (10)
- EPS shows upward trend
- P/FCF 226.02
- P/B ratio 14.61
- CapEx intensity
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE -300.1%
- Share dilution 6.6%
- Net margin trend -230.1% vs 1.6%
Unavailable (4)
- Dividend payout –
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Michael E. Hurlston | President, CEO & Director | 58 |
| Mr. Wajid Ali B.A., C.M.A., M.A., M.B.A. | Executive VP & CFO | 52 |
| Mr. Jae Kim Esq. | Senior VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 54 |
| Mr. Vincent Retort | Executive VP of Module Business Unit, R&D and Product Development | 71 |
| Dr. Wupen Yuen Ph.D. | President of Global Business Units | 55 |
| Mr. Eric Chang CPA | Chief Accounting Officer | 51 |
| Ms. Kathryn Ta | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Rafik Ward | Senior VP, Chief Strategy Officer & Chief Marketing Officer | - |
| Ms. Heather Paschall | Senior VP & CHRO | - |
| Mr. John Bagatelos | Senior Vice President of Worldwide Sales | - |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
6
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-08-17
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-05-06
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-11
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much LITE moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 98% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 83.4%
- Volatility 90d
- 92.3%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 3.08Correlation 0.39
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -42.8%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 9.10%
Earnings reactions
How LITE moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 5, 2026 · In 12 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 4.22Revenue estimate: $1.3B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 7.2% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 1.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | After the close | 3.03 | 3.23 | +6.6% | +9.6% | +13.6% | +6.4% |
| May 5, 2026 | After the close | 2.33 | 2.37 | +1.6% | +0.1% | -5.1% | -0.2% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | After the close | 1.42 | 1.67 | +17.4% | +8.7% | +7.0% | +29.0% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | After the close | 1.05 | 1.10 | +4.9% | +16.0% | +23.6% | +34.0% |
| Aug 12, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.0% | +0.5% | -1.4% |
| May 6, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.7% | +2.8% | +15.7% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -6.0% | -7.3% | -15.7% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +17.5% | +13.9% | +15.6% |
| Aug 14, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +12.6% | +14.8% | +23.9% |
| May 6, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.5% | -6.1% | -0.2% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -12.8% | -22.4% | -15.6% |
| Nov 8, 2023 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.7% | +2.0% | +3.7% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on LITE and what the price did next.
- 10/9/2026PositiveLumentum in rialzo del 6%: la domanda AI esaurisce ordini ottici fino al 2029
- +1 day
- +4.6%
- +3 days
- -6.3%
- 10/9/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +4.6%
- +3 days
- -6.3%
- 10/5/2026PositiveLe azioni Lumentum raggiungono una resistenza cruciale: continuerà il rally?
- +1 day
- -0.1%
- +3 days
- +1.4%
- 9/16/2026PositiveWhy optical stocks Lumentum and Coherent were the day’s biggest S&P 500 gainers
- +1 day
- -3.9%
- +3 days
- +1.2%
- 8/12/2026PositiveLumentum’s stock surges, giving a further boost to the optical-networking trade
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/11/2026PositiveLumentum sees sales more than double as AI demand swells
- +1 day
- +13.4%
- +3 days
- +12.1%
- 7/20/2026PositiveLumentum’s stock just got a lot more interesting — and Barclays has turned bullish
- +1 day
- +8.6%
- +3 days
- +9.4%
- 6/2/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -8.2%
- +3 days
- -13.2%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for LITE.
- 15d agoPOSITIVELumentum in rialzo del 6%: la domanda AI esaurisce ordini ottici fino al 2029
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) shares surged 6% in pre-market trading following CEO Michael Hurlston's announcement that demand for the company's optical components has outstripped supply, with orders booked through early 2029. The company is struggling to meet demand from tech firms expanding data centers for AI applications. Hurlston indicated that a significant portion of customer demand cannot be fulfilled, and Lumentum is actively working to increase production capacity. This strong demand, driven by AI infrastructure build-outs, suggests robust future revenue streams and reinforces Lumentum's strategic position in the optical networking market.
- 19d agoPOSITIVELe azioni Lumentum raggiungono una resistenza cruciale: continuerà il rally?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. shares have surged over 80% from their July low, reaching a new all-time high near $1,092 and pushing the market capitalization above $97 billion. This significant rally is fueled by robust demand for the company's optical and photonic solutions, crucial for high-speed data transfer in data centers across the US and globally. The company's strategic importance is underscored by a $2 billion investment from Nvidia, a major player in the technology sector. Investors are closely watching if Lumentum can sustain this momentum, driven by its critical role in the expanding data infrastructure.
- 9/16/2026POSITIVEWhy optical stocks Lumentum and Coherent were the day’s biggest S&P 500 gainers
Lumentum Holdings Inc. and Coherent Corp. emerged as the top performers on the S&P 500, driven by investor interest in the AI data-center supply chain. Despite broader concerns about a potential spending slowdown, the positive momentum in these optical stocks suggests sustained demand for AI infrastructure components. This trend indicates that companies providing critical optical networking solutions may continue to benefit from the ongoing AI build-out, potentially outperforming market expectations and signaling robust underlying demand in a key technology sector.
- 8/12/2026POSITIVELumentum’s stock surges, giving a further boost to the optical-networking trade
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) saw its stock price surge, signaling positive momentum within the optical-networking sector. This upward movement is further amplified by anticipation for Coherent Corp.'s upcoming earnings report, which is expected to benefit from the positive sentiment generated by Lumentum's performance. Investors are closely watching this space for continued growth opportunities, as strong results from key players like Lumentum often indicate broader industry health and potential for further gains across related companies. The news suggests a favorable environment for optical-networking technology providers.
- 8/11/2026POSITIVELumentum sees sales more than double as AI demand swells
Lumentum Holdings Inc. reported a significant surge in sales, more than doubling year-over-year, primarily driven by robust demand for AI-related products. Despite this exceptional performance and a strong forecast, the company's stock showed a muted reaction in after-hours trading. The company's ability to capitalize on the AI boom highlights its strategic positioning in a high-growth market. Investors will be watching to see if the market eventually reflects the company's fundamental strength and future potential, especially given the substantial revenue expansion.
- 7/20/2026POSITIVELumentum’s stock just got a lot more interesting — and Barclays has turned bullish
Barclays analyst upgraded Lumentum Holdings Inc. to 'overweight' from 'equal-weight', citing a more constructive outlook for the company's optical networking segment. The upgrade follows a period where Lumentum's stock has significantly underperformed its peers in the broader semiconductor industry. The analyst highlighted improved demand signals for Lumentum's key products and a more favorable competitive landscape as reasons for the bullish stance. This shift in analyst sentiment could attract new investor interest and potentially drive share price appreciation.