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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

Fair Value
HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralUnited States

Fundamental

69

Price

$1273.46

Market Cap

$1.12T

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Eli Lilly discovers, develops and sells prescription medicines, concentrating on diabetes and obesity, oncology, immunology and neuroscience. Its current growth is dominated by tirzepatide, the molecule sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss, which together now account for more than half of company revenue. Drugs reach patients through wholesalers, pharmacies and, increasingly, direct-to-consumer channels for the weight-loss franchise.

How it makes money

Revenue comes almost entirely from selling patented medicines at prices that reflect years of research and clinical-trial spending rather than manufacturing cost. A drug protected by patent can be priced with little direct competition; once patents expire, generic or biosimilar versions typically cut that product's sales sharply within a few years, which is why the pipeline behind today's bestsellers matters as much as the bestsellers themselves.

Revenue by segment

Mounjaro35.2%

Tirzepatide sold for type 2 diabetes, the single largest product and the fastest-growing major one in 2025.

All other products35.2%

The rest of the portfolio across diabetes, oncology, immunology and neuroscience, none individually broken out in the annual results.

Zepbound20.8%

The same molecule, tirzepatide, sold for chronic weight management — a newer indication already generating more than a fifth of total revenue.

Verzenio8.8%

A breast-cancer treatment and the largest product outside the tirzepatide franchise.

Competitive moat

Patents and licences · Wide

Patents on approved molecules give Lilly years of protection from direct competition, and the regulatory approval process itself is a barrier few companies can clear. The tirzepatide franchise adds a manufacturing edge too: building the capacity to produce injectable GLP-1 drugs at this scale takes years, which is currently limiting how fast even a well-funded rival like Novo Nordisk can respond.

What drives demand

Defensive

Most of the portfolio treats chronic conditions — diabetes, cancer, autoimmune disease — that patients keep treating regardless of the economic cycle. The newer weight-loss business is more exposed to household budgets since much of it is paid out of pocket or with limited insurance coverage, but it still sits on top of an otherwise defensive base.

Key risks

  • Patent expiration and biosimilar competition — The company identifies the loss of intellectual-property protection on key products, and the entry of generic or biosimilar competitors once patents expire, as a risk to future revenue.
  • Government and payer pricing pressure — Continued pricing pressure from governmental and private payers, including Medicare drug-price negotiation under U.S. law, affects pricing, reimbursement and patient access to Lilly's medicines.
  • Concentration in a few products — The company depends on a relatively small number of products and a consolidated supply chain for a significant share of total revenue, so a manufacturing, safety or competitive setback for any one of them has an outsized effect.

The case for

Buyers argue that the tirzepatide franchise still has years of volume growth ahead as obesity treatment expands globally, that manufacturing scale-up gives Lilly a lead over Novo Nordisk that is hard to close quickly, and that a broad pipeline beyond GLP-1 drugs reduces the company's dependence on any single therapeutic area.

The case against

Sellers fear that more than half of revenue now rests on one molecule facing well-capitalized competition and looming price cuts from Novo Nordisk, that government price negotiation will keep compressing margins on older products, and that a business this concentrated in a handful of drugs is unusually exposed to a single clinical, manufacturing or pricing setback.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$79.67B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$26.71B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

-

Total Equity

$26.54B

Total Liabilities

$85.94B

Current Ratio

1.35

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

1.32

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseFairly Valued

Fair Value

$1554.23

Current Price

$1273.46

Margin of Safety

+18.1%

Fair Value Range

$1032.50 - $2075.96

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$1328.05
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$2228.26
Earnings multiple (P/E):$781.91
Graham growth formula:$1533.59
Earnings power value (EPV):$371.65
Justified P/B:$621.95
Dividend discount (Gordon):$147.95
P/FFO, funds from operations:$384.76
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$336.83
Last Earnings Surprise:+38.14%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

42.73

ROE

77.8%

P/B Ratio

35.38

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

83.4%

ROIC

-

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-

WACC

7.7%

ROIC − WACC

-

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 31.66%
  • Gross margin 83.4%
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Current ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • ROE 92.6%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 21.6%
  • Earnings surprise, average 24.8%
  • PEG ratio 1.61
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.05
  • Share dilution -0.6%
  • Net margin trend 33.5% vs 25.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

Failed (4)

  • P/B ratio 35.38
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)

Unavailable (7)

  • ROIC –
  • P/FCF –
  • Dividend payout –
  • Operating margin –
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest coverage

Piotroski F-Score

8/9

Strong financial health

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

1.05

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-0.6%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. David A. RicksChairman, President & CEO57
Mr. Lucas E. MontarceExecutive VP & CFO48
Dr. Daniel M. Skovronsky M.D., Ph.D.Chief Scientific & Product Officer and President of Lilly Research Laboratories52
Ms. Anat Hakim J.D.Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary56
Mr. Jacob S. Van NaardenExecutive VP, President of Lilly Oncology & Head of Corporate Business Development40
Mr. Donald A. ZakrowskiSenior VP of Finance & Chief Accounting Officer-
Mr. Diogo RauExecutive VP and Chief Information & Digital Officer50
Mr. Michael CzaparSenior Vice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Eric DozierExecutive VP & Chief People Officer58
Mr. Ilya YuffaExecutive VP and President of Lilly USA & Global Customer Capabilities50

Audit Risk

8

Board Risk

5

Compensation Risk

5

Shareholder Rights Risk

9

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-12

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-05

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-08-05

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much LLY moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 38% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
27.8%
Volatility 90d
31.5%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
0.23Correlation 0.08
Max drawdown (12m)
-23.3%
ATR (14d, % of price)
3.02%

Earnings reactions

How LLY moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Oct 29, 2026 · In 5 days · Before the open

EPS estimate: 6.67Revenue estimate: $22.6B

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.1% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).
  • Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 0.

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Aug 5, 2026During the session6.078.38+38.1% +5.2% +4.9% +8.9%
Apr 30, 2026During the session6.738.55+27.0% +5.6% +9.8% +16.0%
Feb 4, 2026During the session6.747.54+11.9% +7.1% +10.3% +2.1%
Oct 30, 2025During the session5.757.02+22.0% +2.9% +3.8% +13.8%
Aug 7, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-9.5% -14.1% -11.5%
May 1, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-6.1% -11.7% -13.6%
Feb 6, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-0.3% +3.3% +3.7%
Oct 30, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-11.6% -6.3% -10.8%
Aug 8, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a+13.3% +9.5% +20.7%
Apr 30, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a+5.1% +6.0% +4.0%
Feb 6, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a+5.1% -0.2% +4.4%
Nov 2, 2023During the sessionn/an/an/a+4.3% +4.7% +11.7%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on LLY and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for LLY.

  • 3d agoPOSITIVE
    Eli Lilly Brings AI to Drug Delivery in METiS TechBio Deal

    Eli Lilly and Company has entered into a strategic research pact with Hong Kong-listed METiS TechBio, potentially worth up to US$1.1 billion in milestone payments. This collaboration focuses on leveraging METiS' proprietary AI platform, AiLNP, to design advanced lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) for targeted drug delivery. The partnership aims to enhance the precision and distribution of therapeutic payloads to specific tissues, addressing a critical factor in treatment success. By combining METiS' AI capabilities with Lilly's extensive scientific and development expertise, the deal signifies Lilly's continued aggressive push into AI-driven drug discovery and development, potentially unlocking new generations of tissue-targeted therapies across various disease areas.

  • 8d agoPOSITIVE
    Eli Lilly, farmaco orale Foundayo ottiene via libera dall'EMA per obesità e diabete

    Eli Lilly's oral drug, Foundayo, has received a positive opinion from a key European regulatory committee, paving the way for its approval for obesity and diabetes treatment in major markets. This development is a significant step for the pharmaceutical giant, potentially expanding its market reach and revenue streams in the highly competitive weight-loss and diabetes drug sector. Investors will be watching the full EMA approval process closely, as this could further solidify Lilly's position as a leader in metabolic disease treatments.

  • 24d agoNEUTRAL
    Adding Lilly’s new drug to Zepbound helped people lose more weight — but there were more side effects

    Eli Lilly's experimental amylin drug, when added to Zepbound, demonstrated increased weight loss in trials. However, this combination also led to a higher incidence of side effects. The company is exploring this drug's potential for both weight management and diabetes treatment. While the enhanced weight loss is a positive development, the increased side effect profile introduces a note of caution for investors. The net effect on the stock will likely depend on the severity and manageability of these side effects versus the efficacy gains.

  • 9/18/2026POSITIVE
    Lilly’s Newest Bull Says Near 300% Rally Is Only the Beginning

    Eli Lilly and Company has experienced a remarkable surge of approximately 300% in its stock value over the past four years, following the approval of its first GLP-1 drug. This impressive performance has propelled the company's market capitalization beyond $1 trillion, establishing it as the preeminent pharmaceutical firm globally. The sustained growth trajectory, driven by its innovative GLP-1 treatments, suggests continued strong investor confidence and potential for further expansion in the lucrative obesity and diabetes markets. Analysts remain bullish, anticipating that this rally is far from over, indicating a robust outlook for the company.

  • 9/2/2026POSITIVE
    Lilly to Buy Merida for $2.88B in Autoimmune Push

    Eli Lilly and Company has announced plans to acquire Merida Biosciences Inc. for up to $2.88 billion in cash. This strategic move aims to bolster Lilly's presence in the autoimmune and allergic diseases sector, diversifying its portfolio beyond its current dominance in weight-loss and diabetes treatments. The acquisition underscores Lilly's commitment to expanding its therapeutic reach and leveraging its financial strength to secure growth opportunities in promising medical fields. Investors may view this as a positive step towards sustained long-term growth and market leadership.

  • 8/31/2026POSITIVE
    Lilly to Buy Merida for $2.88 Billion in Autoimmune Push

    Eli Lilly and Company is set to acquire Merida Biosciences Inc. for up to $2.88 billion in cash, signaling a strategic expansion into autoimmune and allergic diseases. This move diversifies Lilly's portfolio beyond its highly successful weight-loss and diabetes drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro. The acquisition is part of Lilly's aggressive deal-making strategy, with over $20 billion invested in 2026 alone, aimed at bolstering its pipeline with early-stage medicines to secure future blockbuster treatments. Investors may view this as a positive step towards sustained long-term growth and innovation.

  • 8/12/2026NEGATIVE
    Eli Lilly is suing pharmacies and peptide vendors over early sales of the next big weight-loss drug: retatrutide

    Eli Lilly and Company has initiated legal action against pharmacies and peptide vendors accused of prematurely selling compounded versions of its upcoming weight-loss drug, retatrutide. This move aims to protect the integrity of its intellectual property and ensure the drug's eventual regulated release. The lawsuit highlights the intense market anticipation for retatrutide, a drug poised to be a significant player in the lucrative obesity treatment market. For investors, while the legal action may create short-term noise, it underscores Lilly's commitment to safeguarding its pipeline and maximizing the commercial potential of its innovative therapies.

  • 8/11/2026POSITIVE
    Eli Lilly Surges, Novo Nordisk Slips in Weight-Loss War

    Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) has reported a significant 48% surge in second-quarter revenue, reaching US$23 billion, driven by its blockbuster GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes treatments. Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound combined accounted for nearly 65% of total revenue, with Mounjaro alone seeing a 91% jump. The company has consequently raised its full-year revenue forecast to US$85-87 billion. This strong performance, coupled with a 7% stock increase in early trading, highlights Lilly's robust market position and growth potential in the highly competitive weight-loss drug sector, outperforming rivals like Novo Nordisk.