Mattel, Inc. (MAT)
UndervaluedFundamental
63
Price
$16.41
Market Cap
$4.84B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers dolls and accessories, books, content, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Disney Frozen, Monster High, Polly Pocket, and KPop Demon Hunters brands; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids, adults, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Hot Wheels Monster Trucks, Hot Wheels RC, Matchbox, and Matchbox, and Cars brands; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising toys, content, live events, and other consumer products under the Fisher-Price, Little People, Thomas & Friends, and Power Wheels brands. It also provides action figures, building sets, games, and other products under the Masters of the Universe, Mattel Brick Shop, MEGA, UNO, Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE, Toy Story, Star Wars, Pictionary, Skip-Bo, Phase 10, and Blokus brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney Pixar, Microsoft, NBCUniversal, and WWE. The company sells its products to retailers, including omnichannel retailers, discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; wholesalers; and directly to consumers through retail spaces, boutique stores, agents and distributors, and its e-commerce platforms and third-party e-commerce channels. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
No editorial profile for this company yet
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
The other large US toy maker, competing with Mattel for the same shelf space at Walmart, Target and Amazon and for the same entertainment licences behind action figures, dolls and games.
Privately held Danish group whose construction sets compete for the same children's play occasions and the same family gift budget worldwide, often on the same licensed franchises.
Canadian toy and children's entertainment company named by Mattel in both its North America and International segments, competing in preschool, activity toys and character-led play.
Privately held Japanese joint venture whose trading cards and licensed toys compete for the same children's and collectors' spending that Mattel targets with its own card games and collectibles.
Privately held US toy company (owned by Berkshire Hathaway's Alleghany) competing in plush, collectibles and licensed action figures sold through the same mass retailers.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$5.49B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$427M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
-
Total Equity
$2.23B
Total Liabilities
$4.41B
Current Ratio
1.90
Interest Coverage
3.49
Debt/EBITDA
3.84
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$55.12
Current Price
$16.41
Margin of Safety
+70.2%
Fair Value Range
$35.83 - $74.41
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
12.25
ROE
17.8%
P/B Ratio
2.35
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
47.5%
ROIC
6.7%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
6.7%
WACC
6.4%
ROIC − WACC
+0.3 pp
ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (14)
- ROIC 6.7%
- Gross margin 47.5%
- P/B ratio 2.35
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 7.8%
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 19.9%
- PEG ratio 0.40
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.56
- Share dilution -6.5%
Failed (9)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -1.16%
- Price CAGR -7.18%
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- Revenue growth 5Y 3.1%
- Earnings surprise, average -28.5%
- Net margin trend 7.8% vs 9.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Unavailable (4)
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Ynon Kreiz | Executive Chairman & CEO | 60 |
| Mr. Paul Ruh | Chief Financial Officer | 57 |
| Mr. Jonathan H. Anschell J.D. | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary | 56 |
| Mr. Steve Totzke | Executive Advisor & President of Strategic Transition | 55 |
| Mr. Roberto J. Isaias Zanatta | Executive VP & Chief Supply Chain Officer | 57 |
| Mr. Roberto Stanichi | President, Chief Marketing & Brand Officer | 46 |
| Mr. Sailendra Koorapati | Senior VP & Chief Technology Officer | - |
| Ms. Katina Metzidakis | Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Catherine Frymark | Executive VP & Chief Corporate Communications Officer | - |
| Ms. Karen Ancira | Executive VP & Chief People Officer | 43 |
Audit Risk
6
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
4
Shareholder Rights Risk
1
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-23
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-06
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-22
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much MAT moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 65% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 59.4%
- Volatility 90d
- 42.9%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.59Correlation 0.17
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -42.9%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.74%
Earnings reactions
How MAT moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 5, 2026 · In 12 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 0.94Revenue estimate: $1.8B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.6% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 7, down 5 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | After the close | 0.04 | 0.01 | -75.0% | +5.3% | -2.7% | +1.1% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | After the close | -0.21 | -0.20 | +6.8% | -1.5% | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | After the close | 0.54 | 0.39 | -28.3% | -28.4% | -25.0% | -17.9% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | After the close | 1.08 | 0.89 | -17.5% | -6.7% | -2.8% | +2.2% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -6.5% | -16.4% | -15.1% |
| May 5, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.3% | +2.8% | +17.3% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +17.7% | +15.3% | +20.9% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.7% | +4.4% | +14.4% |
| Jul 23, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.7% | +9.8% | +13.7% |
| Apr 23, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.6% | +2.4% | -2.2% |
| Feb 7, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.1% | +0.3% | +2.6% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -16.5% | -7.6% | -3.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on MAT and what the price did next.
- 3/12/2026PositiveSerenity Capital Management Opens $43 Million Mattel Position
- +1 day
- -0.4%
- +3 days
- -3.9%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for MAT.
- 3/12/2026POSITIVESerenity Capital Management Opens $43 Million Mattel Position
Serenity Capital Management has disclosed a new $43 million investment in Mattel Inc., signaling strong conviction from institutional investors. Mattel, known for its iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels, and its strategic licensing deals, is positioned as a stable player in the toy and children's entertainment sector. This significant capital injection suggests that Serenity Capital Management sees substantial untapped value or a positive turnaround in Mattel's business prospects. Investors will be watching for management's response to this vote of confidence, which could catalyze strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing shareholder returns.