McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Fair ValueFundamental
74
Price
$248.46
Market Cap
$174.26B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
No editorial profile for this company yet
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
Through KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut it competes for the same quick-service meal occasions and the same value-menu spending worldwide.
A direct burger-chain rival in North America, fighting for the same lunch, dinner and breakfast traffic with comparable combo pricing.
Competes with McCafé and the McDonald's breakfast menu for the same morning coffee-and-pastry customers, a daypart McDonald's counts inside its informal-eating-out market.
Its Burger King chain sells the same burger-and-fries menu at the same price points to the same drive-thru and delivery customers as McDonald's in nearly every market McDonald's operates in.
The chicken-focused chain that takes the largest share of U.S. quick-service spending after McDonald's, competing for the same drive-thru customers per restaurant.
A global franchised chain of comparable store count, competing for the same fast, low-priced lunch occasion in the same high-traffic locations.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$27.70B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$8.79B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$7.19B
Total Equity
$-1.79B
Total Liabilities
$61.31B
Current Ratio
1.08
Interest Coverage
7.88
Debt/EBITDA
4.25
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$291.03
Current Price
$248.46
Margin of Safety
+14.6%
Fair Value Range
$226.70 - $355.35
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
20.18
ROE
-478.1%
P/B Ratio
-
P/FCF
22.65
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
18.1%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
18.1%
WACC
6.6%
ROIC − WACC
+11.5 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 10.50%
- Price CAGR 6.95%
- ROIC 18.1%
- P/FCF 22.65
- Operating margin 46.2%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 95.1%
- Revenue growth 5Y 7.0%
- PEG ratio 1.45
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.29
- Share dilution -0.7%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (4)
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average 0.1%
- Net margin trend 31.7% vs 32.2%
Unavailable (5)
- Gross margin –
- P/B ratio –
- Dividend payout –
- Debt/equity ratio
- Price below Graham Number
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Christopher J. Kempczinski | Chairman President, & CEO | 56 |
| Mr. Ian Frederick Borden CPA | Executive VP & Global CFO | 56 |
| Ms. Gillian McDonald | Executive Vice President & Global Chief Restaurant Experience Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Joseph Erlinger | Advisor | 51 |
| Mr. Manuel J.M. Steijaert | Executive VP & President of International Operated Markets | 54 |
| Ms. Lauren B. Elting CPA | VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Corporate Controller | 43 |
| Mr. Brian S. Rice | Executive VP & Global Chief Information Officer | 62 |
| Mr. Dexter P. Congbalay | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Desiree A. Ralls-Morrison J.D. | Executive VP & Global Chief Legal Officer | 58 |
| Ms. E. Morgan Flatley | Executive VP and Global Chief Marketing Officer & New Business Ventures | 51 |
Audit Risk
6
Board Risk
5
Compensation Risk
2
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-24
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-07
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-23
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much MCD moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 14% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 23.4%
- Volatility 90d
- 22.9%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- -0.00Correlation -0.00
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -32.3%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 1.85%
Earnings reactions
How MCD moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 4, 2026 · In 11 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 3.38Revenue estimate: $7.3B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.0% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 7, down 5 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Before the open | 3.35 | 3.38 | +0.9% | +1.9% | +1.2% | +3.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | Before the open | 2.77 | 2.83 | +2.2% | +1.3% | -0.1% | -3.0% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | After the close | 3.08 | 3.12 | +1.4% | +2.0% | +2.7% | +1.2% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Before the open | 3.36 | 3.22 | -4.2% | +0.1% | +2.2% | +2.5% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.8% | +3.0% | +1.0% |
| May 1, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.0% | -1.9% | -0.5% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.7% | +4.8% | +4.8% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.3% | -0.6% | -1.3% |
| Jul 29, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.6% | +3.7% | +9.8% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.4% | -0.2% | -1.6% |
| Feb 5, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.4% | -3.7% | -2.6% |
| Oct 30, 2023 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.7% | +1.7% | +4.7% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on MCD and what the price did next.
- 10/7/2026NegativeMcDonald’s Franchisees Balk at Costly Bill to Upgrade Stores
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/26/2026NegativeMcDonald’s Selloff Hits 30% as Big Mac Inflation Spurs Pushback
- +1 day
- -0.5%
- +3 days
- -1.2%
- 9/26/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -0.5%
- +3 days
- -1.2%
- 9/24/2026PositiveMcDonald’s bets $8.5 billion on a productivity makeover across more than 46,000 restaurants
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/23/2026NegativeMcDonald’s is making a historic bet on chicken — and AI — to bring back customers
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/23/2026PositiveMcDonald's Billion-Dollar Plan; Cracker Barrel Gains on Forecast | Stock Movers
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/4/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for MCD.
- 17d agoNEGATIVEMcDonald’s Franchisees Balk at Costly Bill to Upgrade Stores
McDonald's Corporation's ambitious plan to modernize its restaurants and menu is encountering significant resistance from its U.S. franchisees. The proposed upgrades, which include significant store overhauls and menu changes, are estimated to cost each franchisee a minimum of $800,000. This substantial financial burden is causing considerable concern and "angst" among franchise owners, potentially impacting their profitability and willingness to adopt the new initiatives. The news also briefly mentions a stock plunge at Texas Roadhouse, but the primary focus remains on the financial strain faced by McDonald's franchisees.
- 28d agoNEGATIVEMcDonald’s Selloff Hits 30% as Big Mac Inflation Spurs Pushback
McDonald's Corporation's stock has experienced a significant sell-off, dropping approximately 30%, as consumers push back against perceived menu price inflation. The company is facing a critical challenge in regaining cost-conscious diners who view the Big Mac and other items as too expensive. This pricing pressure directly impacts same-store sales and overall revenue growth, raising concerns about the company's ability to maintain market share and profitability in the fast-food sector. Investors are closely watching the company's strategic response to this consumer sentiment shift.
- 9/24/2026POSITIVEMcDonald’s bets $8.5 billion on a productivity makeover across more than 46,000 restaurants
McDonald's is investing $8.5 billion in a significant productivity and technology overhaul targeting over 46,000 global restaurants. This strategic move aims to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth by optimizing existing locations, particularly as the pace of new unit expansion moderates. The investment will focus on improving speed of service, enhancing digital customer experiences, and streamlining back-of-house operations. For investors, this initiative signals a commitment to long-term value creation through operational excellence, potentially leading to improved margins and sustained revenue growth.
- 9/23/2026NEGATIVEMcDonald’s is making a historic bet on chicken — and AI — to bring back customers
McDonald's is reportedly making a significant strategic shift towards chicken-based menu innovation and AI integration to revitalize customer traffic. However, investor sentiment appears cautious, with recent analyst commentary highlighting a historical struggle for the company to achieve breakthroughs in chicken product innovation. The market's lukewarm reception to new McNugget flavor introductions suggests that these initiatives may not immediately translate into increased sales or market share, posing a challenge to the company's turnaround strategy.
- 9/23/2026POSITIVEMcDonald's Billion-Dollar Plan; Cracker Barrel Gains on Forecast | Stock Movers
McDonald's Corporation is investing approximately $8.5 billion to enhance its franchise operations, focusing on food quality, service improvements, and operational efficiency. This significant capital allocation signals a commitment to long-term growth and brand strengthening. The move is expected to boost franchisee profitability and customer satisfaction, potentially leading to increased same-store sales and market share. Investors will be watching for the tangible results of this investment in the coming fiscal years, as it aims to solidify McDonald's competitive advantage in the fast-food industry.
- 8/4/2026NEUTRALMcDonald’s CEO turns to a trusted lieutenant with a turnaround record to revive its biggest market
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski has appointed Skye Anderson to lead the turnaround efforts in the company's largest market. Anderson, known for successfully handling challenging assignments, will focus on revitalizing sales growth and strengthening McDonald's value proposition. This strategic move signals a proactive approach to address potential market challenges and enhance customer engagement. Investors will be watching closely to see if Anderson's proven track record translates into tangible improvements in performance and market share for McDonald's.