Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
UndervaluedFundamental
29
Price
$200.10
Market Cap
$98.14B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis. It has strategic alliances and collaborations with Merck & Co., Inc; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; immatics N.V.; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and OpenAI. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
No editorial profile for this company yet
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
Pfizer sells the main rival mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Comirnaty) and the Abrysvo RSV vaccine, so it bids for the same government, pharmacy and payer contracts Moderna depends on.
BioNTech co-developed and shares the revenue of the Comirnaty mRNA COVID-19 vaccine and is advancing its own mRNA cancer immunotherapies, the two arenas where Moderna's technology competes head-on.
GSK's Arexvy leads the adult RSV vaccine market that Moderna's mResvia is trying to enter, and both compete for the same older-adult respiratory vaccination visits.
Sanofi is the largest seller of seasonal influenza vaccines and is building combination respiratory shots, competing directly with Moderna's flu and flu/COVID combination programmes.
Novavax offers the protein-based alternative to Moderna's COVID-19 shot in the United States and Europe, targeting the same seasonal vaccination demand with a non-mRNA option.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$2.23B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$-3.15B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-2.06B
Total Equity
$8.65B
Total Liabilities
$3.69B
Current Ratio
2.29
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$305.65
Current Price
$200.10
Margin of Safety
+34.5%
Fair Value Range
$198.67 - $412.63
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-32.6%
P/B Ratio
11.82
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
23.4%
ROIC
-31.1%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-31.1%
WACC
10.8%
ROIC − WACC
-41.9 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (7)
- Price CAGR 36.32%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Current ratio
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Revenue growth 5Y 19.3%
- Earnings surprise, average 30.3%
- Share dilution 1.3%
Failed (11)
- EPS shows upward trend
- ROIC -31.1%
- Gross margin 23.4%
- P/B ratio 11.82
- Operating margin -149.0%
- Positive free cash flow
- Return on tangible assets
- DCF valuation (Fairly Valued)
- ROE -39.2%
- Net margin trend -141.4% vs -94.3%
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9
Unavailable (8)
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Stéphane Bancel M.B.A. | CEO & Director | 52 |
| Dr. Stephen Hoge M.D. | President | 49 |
| Mr. James M. Mock | Chief Financial Officer | 48 |
| Ms. Shannon Thyme Klinger J.D. | Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 54 |
| Dr. Jerh Collins Ph.D. | Chief Technical Operations & Quality Officer | 59 |
| Ms. Lavina Talukdar CFA | Senior VP & Head of Investor Relations | 51 |
| Chris Ridley | VP & Global Head of Communications | - |
| Ms. Tracey Franklin | Chief People & Digital Technology Officer | 45 |
| Dr. Charbel Haber M.P.H., Ph.D. | Senior VP & Head of Global Regulatory Science | - |
| Mr. Patrick Norman Bergstedt | Senior Vice President of Commercial Vaccines | 63 |
Audit Risk
7
Board Risk
7
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
9
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-20
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-31
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-30
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much MRNA moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 100% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 101.4%
- Volatility 90d
- 196.7%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 2.18Correlation 0.14
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -34.2%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 10.63%
Earnings reactions
How MRNA moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 6, 2026 · In 13 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: -1.35Revenue estimate: $891M
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 5.3% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 2.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | During the session | -2.12 | -1.97 | +7.3% | -0.1% | -5.4% | -7.0% |
| May 1, 2026 | During the session | -4.04 | -3.40 | +15.8% | +1.5% | -1.2% | +5.7% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | During the session | -2.70 | -2.11 | +21.7% | +4.3% | +5.3% | +24.3% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | During the session | -2.15 | -0.51 | +76.3% | +7.1% | +3.3% | +13.4% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -6.7% | -6.6% | -10.0% |
| May 1, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.0% | -5.3% | -15.7% |
| Feb 14, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.4% | +3.4% | +11.3% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +9.2% | -3.0% | -18.7% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -16.5% | -21.0% | -31.6% |
| May 2, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.1% | +12.7% | +9.4% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.9% | +13.5% | +11.3% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -15.6% | -6.5% | -6.4% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on MRNA and what the price did next.
- 10/23/2026NegativeI dati trapelati di Moderna erano positivi: cosa penalizza allora MRNA?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/22/2026NegativeModerna, Merck Fall After Melanoma Data Leak
- +1 day
- pending
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/22/2026PositiveModerna has a plan to revolutionize how certain cancers are treated. We’re about to find out its potential in melanoma.
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/16/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/9/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/30/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -5.1%
- +3 days
- -7.3%
- 9/21/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/17/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/31/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +10.6%
- +3 days
- +5.3%
- 8/27/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -5.3%
- +3 days
- -6.4%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for MRNA.
- 1d agoNEUTRALOncologists Cheer Melanoma Data
Leaked data from Moderna and Merck's melanoma vaccine trial has created a divergence between oncologists, who are cheering the results, and Wall Street, which has seen both companies' stocks sell off. While doctors view the findings as a significant advancement, the market's reaction suggests investor concerns or a lack of clear, positive impact on revenue projections. This disconnect highlights the complex interpretation of clinical trial data and its immediate market implications, leaving investors to weigh expert opinion against stock performance.
- 1d agoNEGATIVEI dati trapelati di Moderna erano positivi: cosa penalizza allora MRNA?
Despite 'promising' leaked Phase 3 trial data for Moderna's cancer vaccine, the biotech stock (MRNA) faced significant selling pressure, falling below its 20-day moving average. This technical breakdown suggests short-term bearish control, even as the stock has seen substantial gains year-to-date and is positioned as a potential 'blockbuster' for 2026. Investors are questioning the disconnect between positive trial news and the stock's underperformance, indicating potential underlying concerns or profit-taking despite the promising vaccine results.
- 2d agoNEGATIVEModerna, Merck Fall After Melanoma Data Leak
Moderna and Merck experienced significant share price declines following the release of data for their collaborative personalized melanoma vaccine. Investors did not find the results compelling enough to signal a transformative shift in cancer treatment paradigms. The market's reaction suggests a lack of confidence in the vaccine's efficacy or its potential to disrupt the oncology landscape, leading to a sell-off in both companies' stock.
- 2d agoPOSITIVEModerna has a plan to revolutionize how certain cancers are treated. We’re about to find out its potential in melanoma.
Moderna's stock has seen significant gains this year, fueled by anticipation for its novel custom cancer treatment. The company is poised to reveal full Phase 3 data for its melanoma treatment this weekend. Positive results from this trial could validate Moderna's mRNA platform for oncology, potentially opening new avenues for cancer therapy and driving substantial future revenue growth. Investors will be closely watching the data release for indicators of efficacy and safety, which could significantly impact the stock's trajectory.
- 3d agoNEUTRALModerna is about to release the trial results for its cancer vaccine. A lot is riding on this data.
Moderna Inc. is poised to release pivotal Phase 3 trial results for its custom cancer vaccine this weekend. The company's stock has experienced significant gains this year, largely attributed to anticipation surrounding this novel treatment. Investors are keenly awaiting the data, as the outcome will heavily influence Moderna's future valuation and its position in the oncology market. While the potential for a breakthrough is high, the uncertainty inherent in clinical trial results introduces a neutral stance until the data is publicly disclosed and analyzed.