Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Fair ValueFundamental
73
Price
$65.85
Market Cap
$293.68B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Netflix produces and licenses TV shows and films and streams them to paying members over the internet, with no physical discs or theatres involved. It operates worldwide, offering the same core service everywhere but adapting price, local-language content and, in most markets, an ad-supported cheaper tier to fit what each region can pay.
How it makes money
Nearly all revenue comes from monthly membership fees, so growth depends on adding subscribers and raising prices without pushing them to cancel. A smaller and growing slice comes from advertising sold against the cheaper ad-supported plan. Content costs are largely fixed once a show is made, so each additional subscriber watching it adds revenue at very little extra cost, which is why profitability rises faster than the subscriber count.
Revenue by segment
The largest and most mature region, with the highest price per member of anywhere Netflix operates.
The second-largest region by revenue, growing faster than UCAN as membership and pricing both climb.
A mature but lower-priced market for Netflix, with membership growth now the main lever left for revenue.
The smallest region but the fastest-growing, now matching Latin America in revenue for the first time.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowNetflix's largest advantage is spreading a multi-billion-dollar content budget across roughly 300 million paying households, letting it outbid smaller streamers for content while charging a comparatively modest monthly fee. That scale is real but not permanent: well-funded rivals with their own content libraries — Disney, Amazon, Apple — can and do compete for the same subscribers and the same shows.
What drives demand
DefensiveA monthly streaming subscription is a small, discretionary expense that most members keep even when tightening their budget elsewhere, which has made Netflix's subscriber base historically resilient through downturns. The bigger swing factor is not the economy but whether the current content slate is strong enough to keep people from cancelling.
Key risks
- Content and sports rights costs — Netflix is bidding against deep-pocketed rivals for the same films, series and live sports rights. Rising content costs, including a growing push into live events, pressure margins if they outpace subscriber and price growth.
- Streaming competition — Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+ and others compete for the same subscription budget and the same viewing hours, and several bundle streaming with other services Netflix cannot match.
- Currency exposure — With most subscribers now outside the United States, revenue and reported earnings move with exchange rates in ways management does not fully control.
- Slowing subscriber growth in mature markets — UCAN and EMEA are large, penetrated markets where most of the future growth Netflix needs must come from price increases and advertising rather than new members, both of which have limits.
The case for
Buyers argue that Netflix's global scale and content budget remain unmatched among pure streamers, that the ad-supported tier and password-sharing crackdown opened new avenues for revenue without needing endless subscriber growth, and that margins still have room to expand as the business matures.
The case against
Sellers fear that subscriber growth in the largest, most profitable markets is running out of room, that content and live-sports costs keep climbing as competitors bid for the same titles, and that a business built on discretionary spending is more exposed to a downturn than its recent history suggests.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
Disney+ and Hulu sell the same monthly subscription to the same households Netflix targets, and both companies bid against each other for films, series and sports rights.
Prime Video competes for the same viewing hours and the same advertising budgets worldwide, and its studio arm bids for the same content and talent as Netflix.
HBO Max is the closest rival on premium scripted series, the segment Netflix built its brand on, and remains a separate listed company while the Paramount Skydance purchase is held up in court.
YouTube takes more U.S. television viewing time than any streaming service, so it competes directly for the leisure hours and the ad money Netflix wants.
Paramount+ and the free service Pluto TV chase the same subscribers and the same ad-supported viewers, with sports rights as the main lever.
Peacock puts NBCUniversal films and live sports in front of the same U.S. households, and Comcast's cable television business competes for the same entertainment spending.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$48.37B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$13.65B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$9.46B
Total Equity
$26.62B
Total Liabilities
$28.98B
Current Ratio
1.14
Interest Coverage
16.94
Debt/EBITDA
2.27
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$80.47
Current Price
$65.85
Margin of Safety
+18.2%
Fair Value Range
$52.30 - $108.63
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
20.71
ROE
41.3%
P/B Ratio
9.09
P/FCF
24.59
Gross Margin
49.1%
ROIC
24.5%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
24.5%
WACC
12.3%
ROIC − WACC
+12.2 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (21)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 5.47%
- Price CAGR 19.15%
- ROIC 24.5%
- Gross margin 49.1%
- P/FCF 24.59
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 29.7%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 48.0%
- Revenue growth 5Y 12.6%
- PEG ratio 0.65
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 0.88
- Share dilution -1.4%
- Net margin trend 28.2% vs 24.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (5)
- P/B ratio 9.09
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average -7.1%
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend payout –
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
Moderate: some gap between profits and cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Theodore A. Sarandos | Co-CEO, President & Director | 60 |
| Mr. Gregory K. Peters | Co-CEO, President & Director | 54 |
| Mr. Spencer Adam Neumann | Chief Financial Officer | 55 |
| Mr. David Hyman J.D. | Chief Legal Officer & Secretary | 59 |
| Mr. Clete Willems | Chief Global Affairs Officer | 45 |
| Ms. Natalie Gutteridge | VP of Corporate Legal & Operations | - |
| Mr. Jeffrey William Karbowski | Chief Accounting Officer | 46 |
| Ms. Elizabeth Stone | Chief Product & Technology Officer | - |
| Mr. Spencer Wang | Vice President of Finance, Corporate Development & Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Dani Dudeck | Chief Communications Officer | - |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
3
Compensation Risk
6
Shareholder Rights Risk
5
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-01-23
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-21
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-20
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much NFLX moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 53% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 36.0%
- Volatility 90d
- 37.3%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.25Correlation 0.09
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -43.8%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.20%
Earnings reactions
How NFLX moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Jan 19, 2027 · In 87 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 0.68Revenue estimate: $13.4B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 8.2% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 4, down 8 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | After the close | 0.82 | 0.87 | +5.7% | -6.6% | -5.3% | n/a |
| Jul 16, 2026 | After the close | 0.80 | 0.80 | -0.5% | -11.9% | -7.3% | -7.3% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | After the close | 0.78 | 0.70 | -10.2% | -10.6% | -9.7% | -13.9% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | After the close | 0.56 | 0.56 | -0.5% | -5.4% | -2.2% | -1.9% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | After the close | 0.71 | 0.59 | -17.4% | -7.9% | -10.1% | -11.2% |
| Jul 17, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.5% | -5.1% | -7.3% |
| Apr 17, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.2% | +1.5% | +13.2% |
| Jan 21, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +14.8% | +9.7% | +11.7% |
| Oct 17, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.3% | +11.1% | +9.7% |
| Jul 18, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.7% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -7.0% | -9.1% | -7.5% |
| Jan 23, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +9.3% | +10.7% | +14.4% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on NFLX and what the price did next.
- 10/22/2026PositiveMidweek Gainers, 5 Fresh Options Ideas
- +1 day
- +4.3%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/21/2026NegativeNetflix sta perdendo uno dei suoi vantaggi più duraturi?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/20/2026NegativeNetflix Sales Growth to Decline for Fourth Quarter in a Row
- +1 day
- -5.8%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/16/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -1.8%
- +3 days
- -5.0%
- 10/14/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/9/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -2.4%
- +3 days
- -2.1%
- 10/2/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -1.9%
- +3 days
- -0.7%
- 9/29/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/22/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/18/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for NFLX.
- 2d agoPOSITIVEMidweek Gainers, 5 Fresh Options Ideas
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) was highlighted as a potential options trading target, with specific mention of the NFLX Weekly $65-64 call spread. The article suggests that this particular option strategy offered 'solid chances for significant daily gains' during Wednesday's trading session. This indicates a positive short-term outlook or volatility expectation for Netflix, which could be driven by upcoming events or recent price action. Investors looking for short-term opportunities may find such options plays attractive, especially if the underlying stock exhibits the expected price movement.
- 3d agoNEGATIVENetflix sta perdendo uno dei suoi vantaggi più duraturi?
Netflix shares fell approximately 4% following a lowered 2026 advertising revenue forecast to a maximum of $3 billion. The company reported Q3 revenue growth of 11.8%, the slowest in nearly three years. Industry veteran Tom Rogers suggests that evolving entertainment production and consumption models are challenging Netflix's long-standing competitive advantage derived from its substantial spending budget. This slowdown in growth and the potential erosion of its competitive edge raise concerns for investors about the company's future market position and profitability.
- 3d agoNEUTRALNetflix Eyes Sports to Drive Growth
Netflix is exploring the integration of live sports content to revitalize its slowing sales growth. Analyst Matthew Condon of Citizens suggests that a greater emphasis on prestigious programming, culturally impactful hits, and a significant expansion into live sports could be key strategic moves. This potential shift aims to attract new subscribers and retain existing ones by diversifying content offerings beyond traditional scripted series and films. Investors will be closely watching the execution and market reception of any sports-related initiatives.
- 4d agoNEGATIVENetflix Sales Growth to Decline for Fourth Quarter in a Row
Netflix reported third-quarter sales of $12.9 billion, meeting expectations. However, the company forecasts fourth-quarter sales of $13.4 billion, below analyst predictions. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth, projected to decelerate from 17.6% year-over-year in Q4 last year to 11.5% in the current year's fourth quarter. The primary driver for this shortfall is the advertising business, which is expected to deliver $300 million less than anticipated. Investors will be closely watching the company's strategy to re-accelerate growth.
- 4d agoNEUTRALNetflix Looks to Bounce Back From $135 Billion Wipeout
Netflix has experienced a significant market value decline of approximately $135 billion this year, with its stock price falling by 25%. The company is undergoing leadership changes as it seeks to identify and produce new successful content. Investors are closely watching the upcoming earnings report for signs of a turnaround strategy and potential for future growth, especially after recent setbacks in subscriber growth and content performance.