NOV Inc. (NOV)
Fair ValueFundamental
55
Price
$19.76
Market Cap
$6.75B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
NOV designs, manufactures and services the equipment used to drill and produce oil and gas wells, from drill bits and drill pipe to complete land rigs and offshore production systems. It also rents tools and provides field services such as tubular inspection and solids control. A growing minority of its work — carbon capture equipment, offshore wind installation vessels, geothermal drilling tools — serves energy transition markets, though oil and gas activity still drives most of its revenue.
How it makes money
Revenue comes from selling and renting physical equipment and from services billed by the job, not from subscriptions. NOV recognizes revenue when equipment ships or a service is performed; large capital-equipment orders carry a backlog delivered over one to three years and often require customer down payments. About 66% of 2025 revenue came from outside the United States. Margins depend heavily on the volume of oil and gas drilling worldwide, since fixed manufacturing costs are spread over a swinging order book.
Revenue by segment
Capital equipment for drilling and production — land rigs, offshore systems, fracturing and well-intervention equipment — sold under multi-year contracts, plus spare parts and repair for the installed base.
Consumable and rented products for drilling and completion — drill bits, drill pipe, downhole tools — plus inspection, solids-control and digital services billed by the job.
Competitive moat
No identified moat · NoneNOV competes with national, regional and foreign manufacturers across every product line, and states in its own filings that some rivals have greater financial and technical resources. Its business depends on winning individual contracts rather than on a durable structural advantage, and its scale in a fragmented industry offers no clear pricing power over well-funded competitors.
What drives demand
CyclicalDemand tracks worldwide oil and gas drilling activity, which in turn follows oil and gas prices, capital budgets of exploration companies, and OPEC production decisions — all of which NOV says it cannot control. The industry has swung between shortage and oversupply repeatedly; a backlog of $4.34 billion in equipment orders can still be delayed or cancelled if customer economics deteriorate.
Key risks
- Dependence on oil and gas drilling activity — NOV states that demand for its products and services depends primarily on the level of worldwide oil and gas drilling, which has historically been highly volatile and can swing sharply within a short period.
- Revenue concentrated outside the United States — About 66% of 2025 revenue came from operations outside the United States, exposing NOV to political instability, sanctions, currency swings and expropriation risk in the many countries where it does business.
- Fixed-price contract risk — NOV's capital-equipment backlog includes multi-year, fixed-price contracts. Cost overruns, supplier delays, tariffs or inflation in materials can erode margins on work already committed, and some customers cannot cancel for convenience but can still delay payment.
- Supply chain and tariff exposure — The company depends on third-party vendors for raw materials and components; shortages, higher prices, shipping delays or new tariffs — including Section 232 steel tariffs — can raise costs or interrupt production.
- Climate policy and sentiment pressure on oil and gas demand — Future laws restricting greenhouse gas emissions, carbon taxes, or negative investor and customer sentiment toward fossil fuels could reduce demand for oil and gas — and therefore for NOV's products — regardless of the company's own actions.
The case for
Buyers argue that NOV's shift toward carbon capture, offshore wind and geothermal work diversifies it beyond oil and gas, that its $4.34 billion equipment backlog provides revenue visibility, and that consolidation among oilfield-equipment makers has left it with scale few competitors can match.
The case against
Sellers fear that NOV's fortunes remain tied to volatile oil and gas capital spending it cannot influence, that intense competition from well-funded rivals limits its pricing power, and that fixed-price, multi-year contracts expose it to cost overruns if inflation or tariffs raise input costs faster than expected.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
Baker Hughes sells drill bits, downhole drilling and completion tools, artificial lift, subsea production equipment and offshore flexible pipe to the same operators NOV supplies, and names NOV directly as its flexible-pipe competitor in its 10-K.
Halliburton competes for the same drilling and completion budgets with overlapping product lines in drilling tools, completion equipment, artificial lift and pressure-pumping equipment.
Weatherford names National Oilwell Varco among its principal competitors in its own 10-K, overlapping in drill pipe and bottom-hole assembly tools, tubular running services, pressure control and artificial lift.
SLB competes with NOV across wellbore technologies — drill bits, drilling motors, measurement-while-drilling tools and completion systems — sold to the same exploration and production customers worldwide.
TechnipFMC competes with NOV's Energy Equipment segment in subsea production systems, offshore flexible pipe and surface wellhead equipment sold to offshore operators.
Cactus sells and rents wellheads, pressure-control equipment and spoolable composite pipe to North American shale operators, the same onshore customers NOV serves with its production and composite-pipe lines.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$8.69B
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Net Income
$91M
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$876M
Total Equity
$6.27B
Total Liabilities
$4.97B
Current Ratio
2.47
Interest Coverage
4.42
Debt/EBITDA
2.76
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$18.35
Current Price
$19.76
Margin of Safety
-7.7%
Fair Value Range
$11.92 - $24.77
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
79.04
ROE
2.3%
P/B Ratio
1.14
P/FCF
9.66
Gross Margin
19.5%
ROIC
3.5%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
3.5%
WACC
8.1%
ROIC − WACC
-4.6 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (11)
- P/FCF 9.66
- P/B ratio 1.14
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- Revenue growth 5Y 7.5%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 11.98
- Share dilution -6.3%
Failed (14)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -11.83%
- Price CAGR -5.95%
- ROIC 3.5%
- Gross margin 19.5%
- Operating margin 4.5%
- CapEx intensity
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 1.5%
- Earnings surprise, average -36.6%
- Net margin trend 1.0% vs 6.7%
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend payout –
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Jose A. Bayardo | President, CEO & Chairman | 53 |
| Mr. Rodney C. Reed | Senior VP & CFO | 44 |
| Mr. Craig L. Weinstock J.D. | Senior VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 66 |
| Mr. Joseph W. Rovig | President of Energy Equipment | 64 |
| Ms. Christy H. Novak | VP, Corporate Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 52 |
| Mr. David Reid | Chief Marketing Officer & CTO | - |
| Mr. Alex Philips | Chief Information Officer | - |
| Ms. Bonnie Houston | Chief Administrative Officer | - |
| Amie D'Ambrosio | Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Mike Loucaides | Chief Health, Safety, Security & Environmental Officer | - |
Audit Risk
6
Board Risk
5
Compensation Risk
2
Shareholder Rights Risk
3
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-12
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-29
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-07-29
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much NOV moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 37% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 30.8%
- Volatility 90d
- 31.1%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.70Correlation 0.25
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -17.1%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.04%
Earnings reactions
How NOV moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 27, 2026 · In 3 days · After the close
EPS estimate: 0.26Revenue estimate: $2.2B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 4.9% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Before the open | 0.17 | 0.31 | +86.3% | +6.0% | -3.8% | +0.9% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Before the open | 0.16 | 0.05 | -68.1% | -3.8% | -2.5% | -4.2% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Before the open | 0.25 | -0.02 | -107.9% | -2.7% | -5.9% | +0.5% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Before the open | 0.25 | 0.11 | -56.6% | +5.0% | +7.2% | +7.9% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -6.6% | -8.0% | -13.7% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.2% | -2.0% | -2.9% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +11.0% | +12.7% | +11.8% |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.5% | +3.0% | +1.6% |
| Jul 26, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +10.8% | +6.3% | +5.0% |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.3% | -0.4% | -2.1% |
| Feb 1, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.1% | -11.2% | -13.0% |
| Oct 27, 2023 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.2% | +2.6% | +7.2% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on NOV and what the price did next.
- 4/15/2026NegativeOil-Gear Maker NOV Cuts Earnings Guidance as Iran War Hikes Costs and Snarls Deliveries
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for NOV.
- 4/15/2026NEGATIVEOil-Gear Maker NOV Cuts Earnings Guidance as Iran War Hikes Costs and Snarls Deliveries
NOV Inc., a major US oilfield equipment manufacturer, has significantly lowered its first-quarter earnings forecast. The downward revision is attributed to escalating operational costs and disruptions in equipment delivery chains, directly impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This development signals increased financial pressure on the company due to geopolitical instability and supply chain vulnerabilities, potentially affecting investor sentiment and future revenue projections.