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NOV Inc. (NOV)

NEUTRAL
EnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesUnited States

Fundamental

51

Price

$19.58

Market Cap

$7.13B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

NOV designs, manufactures and services the equipment used to drill and produce oil and gas wells, from drill bits and drill pipe to complete land rigs and offshore production systems. It also rents tools and provides field services such as tubular inspection and solids control. A growing minority of its work — carbon capture equipment, offshore wind installation vessels, geothermal drilling tools — serves energy transition markets, though oil and gas activity still drives most of its revenue.

How it makes money

Revenue comes from selling and renting physical equipment and from services billed by the job, not from subscriptions. NOV recognizes revenue when equipment ships or a service is performed; large capital-equipment orders carry a backlog delivered over one to three years and often require customer down payments. About 66% of 2025 revenue came from outside the United States. Margins depend heavily on the volume of oil and gas drilling worldwide, since fixed manufacturing costs are spread over a swinging order book.

Revenue by segment

Energy Equipment55.7%

Capital equipment for drilling and production — land rigs, offshore systems, fracturing and well-intervention equipment — sold under multi-year contracts, plus spare parts and repair for the installed base.

Energy Products and Services44.3%

Consumable and rented products for drilling and completion — drill bits, drill pipe, downhole tools — plus inspection, solids-control and digital services billed by the job.

Competitive moat

No identified moat · None

NOV competes with national, regional and foreign manufacturers across every product line, and states in its own filings that some rivals have greater financial and technical resources. Its business depends on winning individual contracts rather than on a durable structural advantage, and its scale in a fragmented industry offers no clear pricing power over well-funded competitors.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Demand tracks worldwide oil and gas drilling activity, which in turn follows oil and gas prices, capital budgets of exploration companies, and OPEC production decisions — all of which NOV says it cannot control. The industry has swung between shortage and oversupply repeatedly; a backlog of $4.34 billion in equipment orders can still be delayed or cancelled if customer economics deteriorate.

Key risks

  • Dependence on oil and gas drilling activity — NOV states that demand for its products and services depends primarily on the level of worldwide oil and gas drilling, which has historically been highly volatile and can swing sharply within a short period.
  • Revenue concentrated outside the United States — About 66% of 2025 revenue came from operations outside the United States, exposing NOV to political instability, sanctions, currency swings and expropriation risk in the many countries where it does business.
  • Fixed-price contract risk — NOV's capital-equipment backlog includes multi-year, fixed-price contracts. Cost overruns, supplier delays, tariffs or inflation in materials can erode margins on work already committed, and some customers cannot cancel for convenience but can still delay payment.
  • Supply chain and tariff exposure — The company depends on third-party vendors for raw materials and components; shortages, higher prices, shipping delays or new tariffs — including Section 232 steel tariffs — can raise costs or interrupt production.
  • Climate policy and sentiment pressure on oil and gas demand — Future laws restricting greenhouse gas emissions, carbon taxes, or negative investor and customer sentiment toward fossil fuels could reduce demand for oil and gas — and therefore for NOV's products — regardless of the company's own actions.

The case for

Buyers argue that NOV's shift toward carbon capture, offshore wind and geothermal work diversifies it beyond oil and gas, that its $4.34 billion equipment backlog provides revenue visibility, and that consolidation among oilfield-equipment makers has left it with scale few competitors can match.

The case against

Sellers fear that NOV's fortunes remain tied to volatile oil and gas capital spending it cannot influence, that intense competition from well-funded rivals limits its pricing power, and that fixed-price, multi-year contracts expose it to cost overruns if inflation or tariffs raise input costs faster than expected.

Segment figures from fiscal year 2025Sources: NOV Inc. — Form 10-K per l'esercizio chiuso al 31 dicembre 2025

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$8.69B

Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)

Net Income

$91M

Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$876M

Total Equity

$6.27B

Total Liabilities

$4.97B

Current Ratio

2.47

Interest Coverage

4.42

Debt/EBITDA

2.76

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Undervalued

Fair Value

$46.44

Current Price

$19.58

Margin of Safety

+57.8%

Fair Value Range

$30.18 - $62.69

Estimation Methods

Analyst Target:$22.24
DCF:$146.73
PE-based:$4.65
Graham Growth:$4.40
EPV:$9.73
Analyst Consensus:Buy (11B / 11H / 2S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+86.30%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

79.04

ROE

2.3%

P/B Ratio

1.14

P/FCF

9.66

Gross Margin

19.5%

ROIC

3.5%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

3.5%

WACC

8.2%

ROIC − WACC

-4.7 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (11)

  • P/FCF 9.66
  • P/B Ratio 1.14
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 7.5%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 11.98
  • Share Dilution -6.3%

Failed (15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -11.83%
  • Price CAGR -5.88%
  • ROIC 3.5%
  • Gross Margin 19.5%
  • Operating Margin 4.5%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 1.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 46% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -36.6%
  • Net Margin Trend 1.0% vs 6.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

4/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

11.98

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-6.3%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Jose A. BayardoPresident, CEO & Chairman53
Mr. Rodney C. ReedSenior VP & CFO44
Mr. Craig L. Weinstock J.D.Senior VP, General Counsel & Secretary66
Mr. Joseph W. RovigPresident of Energy Equipment64
Ms. Christy H. NovakVP, Corporate Controller & Chief Accounting Officer52
Mr. David ReidChief Marketing Officer & CTO-
Mr. Alex PhilipsChief Information Officer-
Ms. Bonnie HoustonChief Administrative Officer-
Amie D'AmbrosioDirector of Investor Relations-
Mr. Mike LoucaidesChief Health, Safety, Security & Environmental Officer-

Audit Risk

6

Board Risk

5

Compensation Risk

2

Shareholder Rights Risk

3

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for NOV, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 4/15/2026NEGATIVE
    Oil-Gear Maker NOV Cuts Earnings Guidance as Iran War Hikes Costs and Snarls Deliveries

    NOV Inc., a major US oilfield equipment manufacturer, has significantly lowered its first-quarter earnings forecast. The downward revision is attributed to escalating operational costs and disruptions in equipment delivery chains, directly impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This development signals increased financial pressure on the company due to geopolitical instability and supply chain vulnerabilities, potentially affecting investor sentiment and future revenue projections.

via Markets Gazette