Progressive Corp (PGR)
Fair ValueFundamental
80
Price
$228.07
Market Cap
$128.47B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
No editorial profile for this company yet
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
Allstate is the fourth-largest US personal auto writer and competes with Progressive on both auto and homeowners policies, through agents and increasingly through its own direct brands.
Travelers is one of the largest US commercial auto and small-business insurers, competing with Progressive's Commercial Lines segment for fleet, contractor and trucking policies.
State Farm is the other carrier at the top of the US private passenger auto market, writing roughly the same premium volume as Progressive and competing for the same household auto and home policies nationwide.
GEICO is Progressive's closest rival in the direct-to-consumer auto channel, selling online and by phone to the same price-sensitive US drivers and spending heavily on the same advertising battleground.
USAA is a top-five US personal auto and property insurer that competes directly for military families and veterans, a segment Progressive also courts with dedicated pricing and bundles.
Liberty Mutual writes personal auto and home insurance across the US alongside a large commercial book, overlapping with Progressive in both the personal and small-business lines.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$91.06B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$11.70B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$17.20B
Total Equity
$30.32B
Total Liabilities
$92.72B
Current Ratio
0.09
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.55
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$293.40
Current Price
$228.07
Margin of Safety
+22.3%
Fair Value Range
$195.94 - $390.86
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
11.44
ROE
37.3%
P/B Ratio
3.86
P/FCF
8.31
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
7.7%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (17)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 14.62%
- Price CAGR 19.65%
- P/FCF 8.31
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 35.4%
- Revenue growth 5Y 15.5%
- PEG ratio 0.75
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.40
- Share dilution -0.1%
- Net margin trend 12.8% vs 12.7%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (4)
- P/B ratio 3.86
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average 2.4%
Unavailable (6)
- ROIC –
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Operating margin –
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Ms. Susan Patricia Griffith | President, CEO & Director | 61 |
| Mr. Patrick K. Callahan | President of Personal Lines | 55 |
| Mr. John Joseph Murphy | President of Claims | 56 |
| Ms. Karen Barone Bailo | President of Commercial Lines | 57 |
| Mr. Andrew John Quigg | VP & CFO | 46 |
| Mr. Jonathan S. Bauer | Chief Investment Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Carl G. Joyce | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 43 |
| Mr. Steven Anthony Broz | Chief Information Officer | 55 |
| Ms. Julianna Paterra C.F.A. | Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. David M. Stringer | VP, Secretary & Chief Legal Officer | 50 |
Audit Risk
7
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
3
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-03-02
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-03
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-14
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much PGR moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 40% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 26.2%
- Volatility 90d
- 32.3%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- -0.51Correlation -0.24
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -19.4%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.39%
Earnings reactions
How PGR moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.2% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Before the open | 4.41 | 4.60 | +4.3% | -7.1% | -4.2% | -0.4% |
| Jul 15, 2026 | During the session | 4.87 | 4.85 | -0.5% | -8.2% | -9.4% | -9.1% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Before the open | 4.91 | 4.96 | +1.0% | +1.3% | +2.4% | +5.5% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | After the close | 4.46 | 4.67 | +4.8% | -0.3% | -2.1% | -3.4% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Before the open | 5.09 | 4.05 | -20.4% | -5.9% | -5.8% | -7.8% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.2% | +1.8% | +2.1% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.8% | -0.4% | -4.0% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.4% | +1.1% | +1.1% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.8% | -0.1% | -0.5% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.5% | -3.3% | -0.4% |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.8% | +0.8% | +3.7% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.6% | +4.7% | +5.5% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on PGR and what the price did next.
- 5/25/2026Positive$100 Invested In Progressive 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
- +1 day
- -1.0%
- +3 days
- -3.7%
- 4/16/2026PositiveThese Analysts Increase Their Forecasts On Progressive Following Q1 Earnings
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for PGR.
- 5/25/2026POSITIVE$100 Invested In Progressive 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
An investment of $100 in Progressive Corporation five years ago would have yielded a significant return, illustrating the company's strong performance and growth trajectory. While specific figures are not detailed in the provided snippet, such an article typically highlights substantial capital appreciation driven by factors like increased market share, successful product launches, and favorable industry conditions. Investors would view this as a testament to Progressive's robust business model and its ability to generate wealth over the medium term, potentially encouraging further investment.
- 4/16/2026POSITIVEThese Analysts Increase Their Forecasts On Progressive Following Q1 Earnings
Progressive Corporation (PGR) announced robust Q1 earnings, reporting $4.96 per share, a 6.4% increase year-over-year. Sales also saw a healthy uptick, growing 8% to reach $20.97 billion. Following this strong performance, several analysts have revised their price targets upward for the stock. This positive earnings report and subsequent analyst upgrades suggest growing investor confidence and potential for continued stock appreciation.