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Phillips 66 (PSX)

Overvalued
EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingUnited States

Fundamental

76

Price

$283.18

Market Cap

$115.74B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. The Midstream segment provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling, and storage services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) gathering, processing, transportation, fractionation, storage and marketing services. It also exports liquefied petroleum gas. The Chemicals segment produces and markets ethylene and other olefin products; aromatics and styrenics products, such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene; various specialty chemical products, including organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals used in drilling and mining; and petrochemicals and plastics. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasolines and distillates, including aviation fuels. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined products, including gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. This segment also manufactures and markets specialty products, such as automotive, commercial, industrial, and specialty lubricants, as well as base oils. The Renewable Fuels segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable products, as well as supplies sustainable aviation fuel. This segment also procures renewable feedstocks, manages certain regulatory credits, and markets renewable diesel, renewable jet fuel, and other renewable fuels. The company markets its products under the Phillips 66, Conoco and 76, JET, Kendall, Red Line, and other private label brands. Phillips 66 was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

No editorial profile for this company yet

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$152.17B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$7.09B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

-

Total Equity

$29.09B

Total Liabilities

$43.44B

Current Ratio

1.32

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

2.07

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

CyclicalOvervalued

Fair Value

$212.15

Current Price

$283.18

Margin of Safety

-33.5%

Fair Value Range

$143.73 - $280.58

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$285.05
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$173.98
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$139.95
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not applicable to this type of company
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Last Earnings Surprise:+25.24%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

16.16

ROE

15.1%

P/B Ratio

3.59

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

13.1%

ROIC

-

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-

WACC

7.7%

ROIC − WACC

-

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 16.03%
  • Price CAGR 13.15%
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Current ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 24.4%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 15.6%
  • Earnings surprise, average 68.7%
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.26
  • Share dilution -3.8%
  • Net margin trend 4.7% vs 1.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

Failed (4)

  • Gross margin 13.1%
  • P/B ratio 3.59
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)

Unavailable (8)

  • ROIC –
  • P/FCF –
  • Dividend payout –
  • Operating margin –
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest coverage
  • PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

8/9

Strong financial health

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

1.26

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-3.8%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Well-known investors who own Phillips 66

Latest 13F: quarter ended 06/30/2026

InvestorWeight in their portfolioLast quarter
Bill Nygren · Harris Associates0.4%-$1.2B
Tweedy Browne · Tweedy, Browne Company0.2%-$14.4K
Ray Dalio · Bridgewater Associates0.1%-$4.7M
Joel Greenblatt · Gotham Asset Management0.0%+$1.1M
Christopher Bloomstran · Semper Augustus Investments Group0.0%0

Source: 13F filings with the SEC. Long positions in US stocks only, filed up to 45 days late.

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Dr. Mark E. LashierCEO & Chairman63
Mr. Kevin J. MitchellExecutive VP & CFO59
Ms. Vanessa L. Allen SutherlandExecutive VP of Government Affairs, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary53
Mr. Brian M. MandellExecutive Vice President of Marketing & Commercial61
Mr. Richard G. HarbisonExecutive Vice President of Refining60
Ms. Tandra C. PerkinsExecutive VP and Chief Digital & Administrative Officer53
Mr. Sean M. MaherVP of Investor Relations & Chief Economist52
Mr. Andrez CarberryExecutive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer-
Mr. Donald A. BaldridgeExecutive Vice President of Midstream & Chemicals55
Ms. Ann M. KluppelSenior VP & Controller56

Audit Risk

8

Board Risk

8

Compensation Risk

3

Shareholder Rights Risk

9

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-20

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-05

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-05

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much PSX moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 34% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
30.7%
Volatility 90d
30.0%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
-0.33Correlation -0.13
Max drawdown (12m)
-17.3%
ATR (14d, % of price)
3.15%

Earnings reactions

How PSX moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Oct 28, 2026 · In 3 days · Before the open

EPS estimate: 11.79Revenue estimate: $43.2B

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.0% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
  • Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 1.

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Aug 5, 2026During the session7.519.41+25.2% +1.9% -1.6% +9.0%
Apr 29, 2026During the session-0.400.49+221.3% 0.0% +5.1% +9.2%
Feb 4, 2026During the session2.192.47+13.0% +1.3% +4.5% +6.2%
Oct 29, 2025During the session2.192.52+15.2% -0.8% +3.2% +1.6%
Jul 25, 2025Before the openn/an/an/a+1.2% +0.5% -0.6%
Apr 25, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-1.3% -0.7% -1.2%
Jan 31, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-0.7% -2.5% 0.0%
Oct 29, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-1.0% -4.4% -6.1%
Jul 30, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a+2.3% +4.8% -6.2%
Apr 26, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-3.0% -3.7% -8.5%
Oct 27, 2023During the sessionn/an/an/a+0.9% +0.8% +7.3%
Aug 2, 2023During the sessionn/an/an/a-0.8% -2.8% +0.5%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/25/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for PSX.

  • 8/5/2026POSITIVE
    Phillips 66 Expects Soaring Fuel Margins to Last Into 2027

    Phillips 66 anticipates sustained high fuel margins, projecting this trend to continue through the next quarter and potentially into 2027. This outlook, shared by a company executive, suggests that the current environment of skyrocketing profits for fuel producers is not a short-term anomaly. For investors, this indicates a prolonged period of strong earnings potential for refiners like Phillips 66, driven by favorable market conditions that are expected to persist. The company's forward-looking guidance points to robust operational performance and profitability.

    +1 day
    +1.6%
    +3 days
    +6.0%
  • 5/18/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $100 In Phillips 66 Stock 5 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $100 in Phillips 66 (PSX) five years ago would have yielded a significant return, illustrating the company's strong performance in the energy sector. While specific figures are not provided in the prompt, such an analysis typically highlights substantial capital appreciation and dividend payouts. Phillips 66, a major refiner and midstream energy company, has benefited from favorable market conditions, including robust demand for refined products and strategic operational management. Investors considering energy stocks should note PSX's historical performance as an indicator of its potential for future growth and shareholder value creation.

    +1 day
    +2.1%
    +3 days
    -3.7%
  • 4/14/2026POSITIVE
    Phillips 66 CEO: Running Refinery Assets at 99% Capacity

    Phillips 66 is operating its refinery assets at an impressive 99% capacity utilization, signaling robust demand and efficient operations. This high utilization rate suggests strong market conditions for refined products and indicates that the company is maximizing its output to meet current needs. For investors, this operational efficiency points to strong revenue generation and potentially higher profit margins, reinforcing a positive outlook for the energy company's performance in the current market environment.

    +1 day
    +0.9%
    +3 days
    -3.8%
  • 4/6/2026NEGATIVE
    Phillips 66 Sees Nearly $1 Billion in Losses as Oil Prices Surge

    Phillips 66 anticipates a substantial loss of nearly $1 billion in the first quarter, primarily attributed to its short positions in oil and related commodity derivative contracts. The surge in crude and fuel prices, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions including the war in Iran, has significantly impacted the company's hedging strategy. This financial setback highlights the volatility inherent in commodity markets and the risks associated with derivative positions when market movements are extreme. Investors will be closely watching the company's ability to manage these derivative-related losses and adapt its risk management strategies going forward.

    +1 day
    -1.5%
    +3 days
    -12.4%

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.