Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)
UndervaluedFundamental
40
Price
$52.60
Market Cap
$32.51B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Rocket Lab builds and launches rockets, and increasingly builds the satellites that fly on them. Its Electron rocket carries small satellites into orbit for government agencies and commercial operators who cannot fill a larger vehicle alone, and it is developing a bigger rocket, Neutron, aimed at the larger payloads that today mostly go to SpaceX. Alongside launch, its Space Systems division designs and manufactures satellite components and full spacecraft, a business it has grown mainly through acquisitions.
How it makes money
Launch Services revenue is booked when Electron missions fly, priced per launch and per payload mass, so it depends on how many rockets get built and successfully flown in a given period. Space Systems revenue instead comes from selling hardware and engineering services under contracts that can run for months before a single item ships, so it recognizes revenue progressively as work is completed. Neutron has not yet flown commercially, so today's revenue is still almost entirely Electron launches and Space Systems contracts.
Revenue by segment
Design and manufacture of satellite components and complete spacecraft, built into a larger business mainly through acquisitions.
Electron rocket launches for government and commercial small-satellite customers, priced per mission and payload mass carried.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · NarrowRocket Lab is one of very few companies anywhere that has repeatedly and reliably launched orbital rockets, a track record and set of government certifications that take years to earn and that most new entrants do not have. That edge is real in the small-launch niche, but SpaceX dominates the broader launch market by cost and cadence, and Neutron still has to prove itself before Rocket Lab can compete for larger payloads.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalGovernment contracts, a large share of both segments, tend to be multi-year and relatively insulated from short-term economic swings, but they depend on national space and defense budgets that can shift with policy priorities. Commercial satellite demand is more cyclical, tied to how much capital satellite operators are able to raise and deploy at any given time.
Key risks
- Concentration in government funding — A large share of revenue across both segments ultimately depends on US government space and defense budgets, and a shift in agency priorities or a funding delay can slip contracts and revenue.
- Neutron development and execution risk — The larger Neutron rocket has not yet flown commercially and its timeline has already slipped; a further delay or a launch failure would set back Rocket Lab's ability to compete for bigger payloads.
- Launch failures and mission risk — A single launch failure can destroy a customer's payload, trigger contract penalties, and ground the launch schedule for months while the cause is investigated and fixed.
- Integration risk from rapid acquisitions — Space Systems has grown largely by acquiring other companies; folding their operations, contracts and engineering teams into Rocket Lab carries execution risk beyond organic growth.
Customer concentration
As of the end of 2024, Lockheed Martin and Dynetics each accounted for 15% of accounts receivable, and Rocket Lab's largest counterparty overall is the US government, whose funding decisions affect a large share of both segments.
The case for
Buyers argue that Rocket Lab's proven launch reliability and growing Space Systems business give it a rare, credible position as a full-stack space company beyond SpaceX, that Neutron opens a much larger addressable market once it flies, and that a fast-growing backlog shows real demand ahead of that capacity.
The case against
Sellers fear that Neutron's delays push out the payoff for a company still spending heavily to develop it, that SpaceX's scale and pricing dominate the broader launch market Rocket Lab is trying to enter, and that heavy reliance on government budgets and a handful of large counterparties leaves results exposed to decisions Rocket Lab does not control.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$769M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$-165M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-322M
Total Equity
$1.72B
Total Liabilities
$603M
Current Ratio
5.48
Interest Coverage
8.64
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$102.15
Current Price
$52.60
Margin of Safety
+48.5%
Fair Value Range
$97.04 - $107.26
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-11.5%
P/B Ratio
9.01
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
37.3%
ROIC
-4.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-4.8%
WACC
18.0%
ROIC − WACC
-22.8 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (10)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 38.17%
- Gross margin 37.3%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Revenue growth 5Y 76.5%
- Earnings surprise, average 21.4%
- Net margin trend -21.5% vs -45.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (9)
- ROIC -4.8%
- P/B ratio 9.01
- Operating margin -29.1%
- Positive free cash flow
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE -7.6%
- Share dilution 7.0%
Unavailable (7)
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- CapEx intensity
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Sir Peter Beck | Founder, Chairman, President & CEO | 48 |
| Mr. Adam C. Spice | CFO & Treasurer | 56 |
| Mr. Frank Klein | Chief Operations Officer | 52 |
| Mr. Arjun L. Kampani J.D. | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 53 |
| Mr. Agostino Ricupati CPA | VP, Corporate Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 58 |
| Ms. Morgan Bailey Connaughton | Vice President of Marketing & Communications | - |
| Ms. Connie Lundgren | Vice President of People & Culture | - |
| Mr. Shaun O'Donnell | Chief Engineer of Special Projects | 47 |
| Mr. Ehson Mosleh | Space Systems Chief Engineer | - |
| Mr. Marvin Bradford Clevenger Ph.D. | President of Rocket Lab USA Inc. | - |
Audit Risk
7
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
8
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-26
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-10
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-14
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much RKLB moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 94% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 66.7%
- Volatility 90d
- 75.8%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 3.92Correlation 0.53
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -66.2%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 7.55%
Earnings reactions
How RKLB moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 9, 2026 · In 16 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: -0.02Revenue estimate: $257M
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.9% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | After the close | -0.08 | -0.08 | -4.6% | -4.7% | 0.0% | +2.5% |
| May 7, 2026 | After the close | -0.08 | -0.07 | +14.1% | +9.5% | +34.2% | +68.7% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | After the close | -0.09 | -0.09 | +4.5% | -7.0% | -4.9% | -3.6% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | After the close | -0.11 | -0.03 | +71.8% | +7.9% | -1.3% | -16.6% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.5% | +1.1% | -3.2% |
| May 8, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.9% | -11.2% | +9.2% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -17.5% | +3.3% | -5.9% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +31.2% | +28.4% | +39.8% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +12.2% | +12.6% | +22.2% |
| May 6, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.9% | -2.2% | +2.5% |
| Feb 27, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -6.2% | -2.5% | -10.0% |
| Nov 8, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.1% | -1.8% | +0.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on RKLB and what the price did next.
- 10/15/2026NegativeRocket Lab rinvia al prossimo anno il debutto del razzo Neutron: titolo in calo a Wall Street
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/14/2026NegativeRocket Lab’s stock slides as the company pushes back Neutron’s first launch
- +1 day
- -6.9%
- +3 days
- -12.8%
- 10/1/2026PositiveRocket Lab in rally dopo maxi-accordo con Synspective
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/22/2026PositiveLe azioni Rocket Lab hanno creato un pattern rialzista: è il momento di comprare?
- +1 day
- +3.0%
- +3 days
- +6.1%
- 9/2/2026PositiveCathie Wood acquista $31.6M di Rocket Lab: crede che la svendita sia esagerata?
- +1 day
- +0.5%
- +3 days
- +1.6%
- 8/18/2026PositiveLe azioni Rocket Lab volano: un pattern raro indica rialzi, ma c’è un rischio
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/10/2026NegativeRocket Lab reveals some big plans, but its stock is dropping on mixed earnings
- +1 day
- +0.3%
- +3 days
- -0.6%
- 8/10/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 7/8/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 6/29/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for RKLB.
- 9d agoNEGATIVERocket Lab rinvia al prossimo anno il debutto del razzo Neutron: titolo in calo a Wall Street
Rocket Lab USA Inc. experienced a significant decline of 9.25% in its stock price following the announcement of a delay for its Neutron rocket launch. The company has postponed the debut of its new heavy-lift launch vehicle to next year. This setback impacts investor sentiment and raises concerns about the company's development timeline and future revenue streams. The delay could affect Rocket Lab's competitive position in the launch services market, potentially leading to further downward pressure on its shares as market participants reassess growth prospects.
- 10d agoNEGATIVERocket Lab’s stock slides as the company pushes back Neutron’s first launch
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. announced a significant delay for its Neutron rocket's inaugural launch, pushing it out of 2024. The medium-lift vehicle, designed to compete with SpaceX's Falcon 9, now faces an uncertain timeline. This setback is likely to impact revenue projections and investor sentiment, as Neutron is a key component of Rocket Lab's long-term growth strategy, particularly for its satellite constellation deployment and future space tourism ambitions. The delay raises concerns about the company's execution capabilities and competitive positioning in the rapidly evolving launch services market.
- 23d agoPOSITIVERocket Lab in rally dopo maxi-accordo con Synspective
Rocket Lab USA Inc. experienced a significant rally, trading up 2.90% following the announcement of a multi-year agreement with Japan's Synspective. The deal secures 20 launches for Synspective's satellite constellation. This substantial contract underscores Rocket Lab's strong position in the launch services market and provides significant revenue visibility for the coming years. Investors are likely to view this as a positive development, indicating continued demand for the company's launch capabilities and potential for future growth.
- 9/22/2026POSITIVELe azioni Rocket Lab hanno creato un pattern rialzista: è il momento di comprare?
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares are showing a strong bullish pattern, having bounced from a recent low of $60 to trade just above it. The stock has formed a double-bottom pattern at the $60 mark, with a neckline resistance at $86.45. This technical setup, combined with investor buying on dips, suggests potential for a short-term continuation of the upward trend. The formation indicates a potential reversal from recent lows, signaling renewed investor interest and a possible upward trajectory for the stock.
- 9/9/2026NEUTRALAzioni Rocket Lab giù del 56% dal massimo annuale: opportunità d'acquisto?
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares have seen a significant decline, falling 56% from their annual high of $150 to the current $65. Despite this price drop, the company has achieved several key milestones, including new contracts with Space Force, Viasat, and MDA, and the release of its Inverted Metamorphic (IMM) Apex solar cell. Analysts suggest the current pullback might present a buying opportunity, potentially forming a double-bottom pattern. The underlying demand for Rocket Lab's space services remains strong, indicating potential for future recovery and growth.
- 9/2/2026POSITIVECathie Wood acquista $31.6M di Rocket Lab: crede che la svendita sia esagerata?
ARK Investment Management, led by Cathie Wood, has significantly increased its stake in Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB), acquiring approximately $31.6 million worth of shares on Tuesday, following a $44 million purchase over two days. This substantial buying activity from a prominent growth-focused fund manager comes despite recent stock price pressure and a narrowing launch window for Neutron, alongside a competitor securing a NASA contract. ARK's conviction suggests they believe the market's reaction to these events is an overreaction, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors who share this long-term growth outlook for the space launch and satellite technology company.
- 8/18/2026POSITIVELe azioni Rocket Lab volano: un pattern raro indica rialzi, ma c’è un rischio
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares have surged from a low of $58.25 to $82, buoyed by strong earnings and an expanding backlog. The company's stock experienced a significant uplift following a major agreement with Viasat, a key player in satellite communications. Rocket Lab will provide its high-performance Lightning spacecraft platform for Viasat's payload. This development, coupled with a rare bullish double-bottom pattern formation, suggests further short-term upside potential for RKLB investors. The deal underscores Rocket Lab's growing influence in the space sector.
- 8/10/2026NEGATIVERocket Lab reveals some big plans, but its stock is dropping on mixed earnings
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. reported mixed financial results, leading to a stock price decline despite ambitious expansion plans. The company is focusing on extending its European presence and growing its order backlog, signaling potential future revenue streams. However, the immediate market reaction suggests that current earnings or forward guidance did not meet investor expectations, overshadowing the long-term strategic initiatives. Investors will be closely monitoring the execution of these expansion plans and their impact on profitability in upcoming quarters.