Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
UndervaluedFundamental
71
Price
$32.94
Market Cap
$20.46B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Supermicro designs and assembles server computers, buying processors and other chips from suppliers such as NVIDIA and AMD and building them into complete systems, racks and, increasingly, whole liquid-cooled data-centre modules. Its customers are cloud providers, AI labs and large enterprises that need computing capacity fast, and its pitch is speed of delivery and engineering flexibility rather than being the cheapest option.
How it makes money
Revenue is booked when a system ships, so it is hardware sales, not subscriptions, and it moves in step with how much capacity AI data-centre builders are ordering at any given time. Because Supermicro buys the expensive components — chips above all — from a handful of suppliers, its margins are thin and depend heavily on getting favourable pricing and allocation from them, particularly NVIDIA.
Revenue by segment
Complete rack-mounted server and storage systems, mostly built around GPUs for AI workloads. The vast majority of revenue.
Competitive moat
No identified moat · NoneSupermicro assembles systems from components any well-capitalised competitor can also buy, and rivals such as Dell and HPE build comparable servers. Its advantage in any given period is operational — faster time-to-market on new chip generations and modular designs — rather than something a customer cannot get elsewhere, and it has to be defended anew each product cycle.
What drives demand
CyclicalOrders track the capital spending plans of a small number of large AI and cloud customers, which can be delayed, cancelled or shifted to a competitor with little warning. The business has already lived through one such swing, when server and storage revenue grew several times over in two years on the AI build-out.
Key risks
- Dependence on a few large customers — Four customers each represented 10% or more of net sales in fiscal 2025. Losing one or a pause in its orders is not a marginal event for a company this concentrated.
- Dependence on GPU supply — Supermicro's growth is tied to its ability to secure enough NVIDIA and AMD GPUs to build systems; supply shortages or being deprioritised versus other server makers directly caps revenue.
- Thin, competitive margins — Gross margin declined in fiscal 2025 on competitive pricing and customer mix. As larger rivals with more purchasing power chase the same AI server contracts, pricing pressure is a persistent risk rather than a one-time event.
- Rapid product transitions — New chip generations arrive quickly, and inventory or components built around the previous generation can lose value fast if a transition is mistimed.
Customer concentration
Four customers each accounted for 10% or more of net sales in fiscal 2025, but the company does not disclose their combined share of revenue.
The case for
Buyers argue that Supermicro's speed in bringing new chip generations to market as complete systems, combined with its liquid-cooling and rack-scale engineering, keeps it a preferred partner as AI data-centre spending continues to grow.
The case against
Sellers fear that Supermicro is a low-margin assembler of components anyone can buy, dependent on a handful of customers and on GPU allocations it does not control, in a market where larger, better-capitalised rivals are chasing the same contracts.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$39.06B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$2.23B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-6.97B
Total Equity
$14.48B
Total Liabilities
$15.47B
Current Ratio
3.87
Interest Coverage
14.24
Debt/EBITDA
1.63
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$62.18
Current Price
$32.94
Margin of Safety
+47.0%
Fair Value Range
$40.42 - $83.95
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
10.10
ROE
15.4%
P/B Ratio
1.49
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
10.8%
ROIC
9.6%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
9.6%
WACC
14.3%
ROIC − WACC
-4.7 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 10.60%
- Price CAGR 30.91%
- ROIC 9.6%
- P/B ratio 1.49
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 7.1%
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 25.1%
- Revenue growth 5Y 61.5%
- Earnings surprise, average 32.5%
- PEG ratio 0.13
- Net margin trend 5.7% vs 4.8%
Failed (6)
- Gross margin 10.8%
- Positive free cash flow
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) -3.05
- Share dilution 9.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Unavailable (3)
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- CapEx intensity
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Charles Liang | Founder, Chairman of the Board, President & CEO | 67 |
| Ms. Chiu-Chu Liu Liang | Co-Founder, Senior VP & Director | 63 |
| Mr. David E. Weigand | CFO, Company Secretary & Senior VP | 67 |
| Mr. Vikranth Malyala | Chief Business Officer | - |
| Mr. Jin Xiao | Senior Corporate Vice President of Engineering | 61 |
| Mr. Kenneth Cheung | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | - |
| Mr. Yitai Hu | SVP of Corporate Development & General Counsel | - |
| Ms. DeAnna Luna | Acting Chief Compliance Officer | - |
| Mr. Shin-Chun Hsu | Sr. Chief Executive of Strategic Business | 76 |
| Mr. Michael Thomas Staiger | Senior Vice President of Corporate Development | - |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
10
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
9
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-08-31
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-05-11
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-20
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much SMCI moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 97% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 74.4%
- Volatility 90d
- 87.1%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 3.89Correlation 0.53
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -61.0%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 7.72%
Earnings reactions
How SMCI moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 3, 2026 · In 10 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 1.20Revenue estimate: $16.3B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 13.9% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | After the close | 0.98 | 1.70 | +74.1% | +10.7% | +19.0% | +18.4% |
| May 5, 2026 | After the close | 0.63 | 0.84 | +32.3% | +13.0% | +24.5% | +17.8% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | After the close | 0.50 | 0.69 | +38.7% | +11.1% | +13.8% | +12.3% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | After the close | 0.41 | 0.35 | -14.9% | -5.1% | -11.3% | -18.1% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | After the close | 0.45 | 0.41 | -8.4% | -17.3% | -18.3% | -18.9% |
| May 6, 2025 | After the close | 0.51 | 0.31 | -39.3% | -5.6% | -1.4% | +18.1% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +9.6% | +2.8% | +56.0% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -24.7% | -18.1% | -21.7% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -13.7% | -20.1% | -8.0% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -9.5% | -14.0% | -4.6% |
| Jan 29, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +10.4% | +3.5% | +33.8% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.4% | -2.5% | +3.2% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on SMCI and what the price did next.
- 10/21/2026PositiveLe azioni SMCI volano del 17% per previsione vendite +$4 mld, ma analisti cauti
- +1 day
- +9.0%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/20/2026PositiveSuper Micro’s stock soars after surprise update — with Dell and HPE shares joining the rally
- +1 day
- +9.0%
- +3 days
- pending
- 10/20/2026PositiveAI Stocks Rally After Super Micro Preliminary Sales Bring Relief
- +1 day
- +9.0%
- +3 days
- pending
- 9/17/2026PositiveSMCI +9%: Goldman Sachs segnala l'espansione del mercato indirizzabile
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/12/2026PositiveSuper Micro stock is rallying after results. Here’s what Wall Street is saying.
- +1 day
- +18.8%
- +3 days
- +25.3%
- 8/11/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +18.8%
- +3 days
- +25.3%
- 7/21/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +20.0%
- +3 days
- +19.3%
- 6/22/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 6/20/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +16.0%
- +3 days
- +7.6%
- 6/17/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +9.6%
- +3 days
- +20.9%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for SMCI.
- 4d agoPOSITIVELe azioni SMCI volano del 17% per previsione vendite +$4 mld, ma analisti cauti
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares surged 17% in after-hours trading following a significant upward revision to its quarterly sales forecast. The AI server manufacturer now projects September quarter revenues between $18.5 billion and $19.5 billion, a substantial increase from its prior guidance of $14.5 billion–$15.5 billion. Gross margin outlook also improved, reaching 12%–12.5%. This positive surprise offers a reprieve after a recent tech sector sell-off. However, analysts remain cautious, debating whether exceptional server sales will translate into sustainable cash flow and profits. The $4 billion sales surprise is a key factor for investors to monitor.
- 4d agoPOSITIVESuper Micro’s stock soars after surprise update — with Dell and HPE shares joining the rally
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares surged following an unexpected positive business update. The company indicated that its revenue and profitability for the upcoming period are poised to significantly exceed prior forecasts. This surprise announcement has not only boosted SMCI's valuation but also triggered a broader rally in related tech hardware stocks, with Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) also experiencing notable gains. Investors are interpreting this as a strong indicator of robust demand within the AI infrastructure sector, potentially benefiting key players across the supply chain.
- 4d agoPOSITIVEAI Stocks Rally After Super Micro Preliminary Sales Bring Relief
Super Micro Computer Inc. shares surged in after-hours trading following the release of preliminary sales figures that exceeded expectations. This positive performance has injected a wave of optimism into the broader AI sector, signaling robust demand for AI-related hardware and infrastructure. The relief stems from concerns that spending on AI technology might slow down, but Super Micro's results suggest continued strong investment. Investors are interpreting this as a sign of sustained growth potential for AI companies, potentially leading to increased valuations across the sector.
- 9d agoNEUTRALSupermicro promised a new CFO in December 2024. A $2.5 billion smuggling case and a cofounder’s arrest later, it has one
Super Micro Computer, Inc. has appointed Mark Long as its new Chief Financial Officer, replacing David Weigand. This leadership change follows a period marked by a significant smuggling case and the arrest of a co-founder. While the company has not yet provided specific details on the financial implications of these past events or the strategic direction Mr. Long will implement, the appointment itself is a step towards restoring operational stability. Investors will be closely monitoring the company's future disclosures and performance under the new CFO.
- 9/17/2026POSITIVESMCI +9%: Goldman Sachs segnala l'espansione del mercato indirizzabile
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares surged 9% on Thursday following a bullish assessment from Goldman Sachs. The investment bank projects an aggressive expansion of the AI server Total Addressable Market (TAM) through the end of the decade. This positive outlook has propelled SMCI stock above its 20-day moving average, suggesting sustained upward momentum. The company's stock has already demonstrated significant strength, climbing an impressive 70% from its July low, underscoring strong investor confidence in its growth trajectory within the burgeoning AI infrastructure sector.
- 8/20/2026NEUTRALSupermicro investigation clears CEO in alleged $2.5 billion smuggling scheme while a criminal trial involving a cofounder is set for next year
Super Micro Computer's board has concluded its investigation into alleged smuggling activities, finding no evidence that CEO Charles Liang was aware of the scheme. This internal review clears the CEO, potentially alleviating some direct leadership concerns. However, the company still faces significant legal headwinds as a criminal trial involving a co-founder is scheduled for next year. This pending trial could still expose the company to further legal and reputational damage, creating an uncertain outlook for investors despite the CEO's exoneration.
- 8/12/2026NEUTRALSuper Micro gives a big sales forecast, but analysts wonder how long the momentum can last
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has issued an optimistic sales forecast, signaling strong near-term growth prospects that have captured Wall Street's attention. The company's profitability trends and revenue projections have impressed investors, suggesting robust demand for its products. However, a prevailing sentiment among analysts questions the long-term sustainability of this momentum. This divergence highlights a potential risk for investors, as the current bullish outlook may face headwinds if the underlying drivers of growth prove to be temporary or if competitive pressures intensify. The market will be closely watching SMCI's ability to maintain its growth trajectory beyond the current cycle.
- 8/12/2026POSITIVESuper Micro stock is rallying after results. Here’s what Wall Street is saying.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares surged following its latest earnings report, with analysts largely maintaining a positive outlook. The company's performance, driven by strong demand for its AI-optimized server solutions, exceeded expectations. While specific figures were not detailed in this summary, the positive analyst sentiment suggests robust revenue growth and improved profitability. This rally indicates investor confidence in SMCI's strategic positioning within the booming AI hardware sector, potentially signaling continued upward momentum for the stock.