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Semtech Corporation (SMTC)

Overvalued
TechnologySemiconductorsUnited States

Fundamental

49

Price

$132.00

Market Cap

$13.22B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Semtech Corporation provides semiconductor, Internet of Things systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions in the Asia- Pacific, North America, and Europe. The company operates in three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, and IoT Systems and Connectivity. It provides signal integrity products, including a portfolio of optical and copper data communications and video transport products used in various infrastructure, and industrial applications; a portfolio of integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, passive optical networks, wireless base station optical transceivers, and interface applications; and video products for broadcast applications, as well as video-over-IP technology for professional audio video applications. The company also offers analog mixed signal and wireless products; protection devices, such as filter and termination devices which protect electronic systems from voltage spikes; and designs, develops, manufactures, and markets radio frequency products used in industrial, medical, and communications applications, as well as specialized sensing products. In addition, it provides switching voltage regulators, combination switching and linear regulators, smart regulators, isolated switches, and wireless charging related products. Further, the company offers a portfolio of IoT systems and connectivity solutions, such as modules, gateways, routers, and connected services, including wireless connectivity and cloud-based services for industrial, medical, and communications applications. It serves original equipment manufacturers, solution providers, commercial applications, infrastructure, high-end consumer, and industrial end markets. The company sells its products through direct sales personnel, independent sales representative firms, and independent distributors. Semtech Corporation was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Camarillo, California.

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Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$1.09B

Trailing 12 months (through 4/26/2026)

Net Income

$-33M

Trailing 12 months (through 4/26/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$171M

Total Equity

$550M

Total Liabilities

$861M

Current Ratio

2.37

Interest Coverage

0.62

Debt/EBITDA

2.89

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseOvervalued

Fair Value

$90.19

Current Price

$132.00

Margin of Safety

-46.4%

Fair Value Range

$58.62 - $121.76

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$217.07
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$16.19
Earnings multiple (P/E):$46.08
Graham growth formula:$21.65
Earnings power value (EPV):$5.55
Justified P/B:$18.66
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:$29.23
Revenue multiple:$66.82
Last Earnings Surprise:+13.42%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

38.68

ROE

-7.3%

P/B Ratio

21.45

P/FCF

70.98

Gross Margin

51.6%

ROIC

1.5%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

1.5%

WACC

17.5%

ROIC − WACC

-16.0 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (12)

  • Price CAGR 18.30%
  • Gross margin 51.6%
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 51.2%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 12.0%
  • Earnings surprise, average 11.9%
  • Net margin trend -3.0% vs -12.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (10)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • ROIC 1.5%
  • P/FCF 70.98
  • P/B ratio 21.45
  • Operating margin 2.1%
  • Interest coverage
  • Return on tangible assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Share dilution 22.5%

Unavailable (4)

  • Dividend payout –
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

-

Low quality: investigate accounting

Share Dilution

22.5%

Issuing new shares, diluting ownership

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Dr. Hong Q. Hou Ph.D.President, CEO & Director60
Mr. Mark LinExecutive VP & CFO48
Mr. Asaf SilbersteinExecutive VP & COO55
Mr. J. Michael WilsonChief Quality Officer & CTO69
Mr. Madhusudhan RayabhariSenior VP and GM of Analog, Mixed-Signal & Wireless Products Group59
Mr. Jason Elliot GreenExecutive VP & Chief Commercial Officer52
Mr. Mitchell J. HawsSenior Vice President of Investor Relations61
Mr. Jeffrey GutierrezSenior VP, General Counsel & Secretary-
Ms. Monica Duran Van BerkelSenior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer56
Mr. Ross GraySenior VP & GM of IoT Systems and Connectivity Product Group54

Audit Risk

1

Board Risk

2

Compensation Risk

2

Shareholder Rights Risk

3

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-03-23

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-26

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-15

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much SMTC moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityExtreme

More volatile than 98% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
93.6%
Volatility 90d
96.5%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
3.18Correlation 0.51
Max drawdown (12m)
-40.7%
ATR (14d, % of price)
9.74%

Earnings reactions

How SMTC moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Nov 23, 2026 · In 30 days · Time not known

EPS estimate: 1.13Revenue estimate: $416M

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 10.7% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Aug 25, 2026After the close0.460.51+10.4% +2.7% +10.4% +3.7%
May 26, 2026After the close0.440.440.0% +4.8% -4.4% +1.3%
Mar 16, 2026After the close0.450.48+5.8% -6.5% -11.0% -14.0%
Nov 24, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-1.9% +2.5% +4.0%
Aug 25, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+7.0% +15.1% +13.3%
May 27, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-1.7% -4.6% -1.7%
Mar 13, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+13.9% +21.1% +24.2%
Nov 25, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+18.8% +18.1% +25.3%
Aug 27, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+6.1% +11.2% +11.3%
Jun 5, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+14.6% -1.8% -21.5%
Mar 28, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+3.7% +6.8% +18.4%
Dec 6, 2023After the closen/an/an/a+10.8% +16.3% +28.7%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on SMTC and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for SMTC.

  • 5/27/2026POSITIVE
    Why Semtech Shares Are Trading Higher By 7%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving Premarket

    Semtech Corp. experienced a significant pre-market surge of 7% following the release of its first-quarter financial results, which surpassed analyst expectations. The company's second-quarter guidance also came in stronger than anticipated, further fueling investor optimism. This positive performance suggests robust operational execution and a favorable outlook for Semtech's business segments, potentially indicating market share gains or successful product launches. Investors are likely to view these results as a strong indicator of future growth and profitability.

  • 5/27/2026NEUTRAL
    Semtech Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript

    Semtech Corporation's Q1 2027 earnings call transcript has been released. While the transcript itself is informational, it does not contain immediate financial results or forward-looking guidance that would directly impact the stock price. Investors will need to analyze the content of the transcript for insights into the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook. Without specific figures or explicit statements on future expectations, the transcript's immediate market impact remains neutral until further analysis.

  • 5/26/2026POSITIVE
    Semtech Shares Climb After Q1 Results Beat Expectations

    Semtech Corporation reported Q1 earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, signaling a positive performance for the semiconductor company. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the market's reaction indicates a favorable outcome for investors. This beat suggests strong operational execution or better-than-anticipated market demand for Semtech's products, potentially including their advanced connectivity and power management solutions. Investors will be watching for further details on revenue growth and future guidance, which could confirm sustained momentum.

  • 3/17/2026NEGATIVE
    Semtech Beats Q4 Expectations, Analyst Says AI Data Center Demand Outpaces Legacy Business Model

    Semtech Corporation's shares experienced a decline following its Q4 earnings report, despite beating expectations. While analysts maintain a bullish outlook, citing strong demand for AI data centers, investor sentiment appears cautious due to concerns about the company's legacy business model's ability to keep pace. This divergence highlights a potential disconnect between forward-looking AI growth prospects and the current performance of established operations, creating uncertainty for shareholders.

  • 3/16/2026NEUTRAL
    Semtech (SMTC) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

    Semtech Corporation is scheduled to release its Q4 2026 earnings call transcript on March 16, 2026. While the content of the transcript is not available, the announcement itself is a routine corporate event. Investors will be looking for forward-looking guidance, commentary on product demand, and any strategic updates that could impact future revenue and profitability. The market's reaction will depend heavily on the details revealed within the transcript regarding financial performance and business outlook.

  • 3/16/2026NEGATIVE
    Semtech Stock Slides On Q4 Earnings

    Semtech Corporation's stock experienced a significant decline following the release of its fourth-quarter financial results. While the company's report detailed its performance after market close on Monday, the market's reaction indicates investor disappointment. Specific figures regarding earnings per share and revenue, especially in comparison to analyst expectations, are crucial for understanding the magnitude of the slide. Investors will be scrutinizing the guidance provided for the upcoming quarter and fiscal year, as forward-looking statements often dictate immediate stock price movements. This downturn suggests potential concerns about the company's operational execution, market demand for its products, or competitive pressures.

  • 3/10/2026POSITIVE
    What's Going On With Semtech Stock Tuesday?

    Semtech Corporation (SMTC) experienced a premarket surge on Tuesday, driven by the successful launch of new products tailored for AI video applications and 5G RedCap technology. This development signals a strategic advancement for the company in high-growth technology sectors. Investors are likely to view these product introductions positively, anticipating increased market share and revenue streams from these innovative offerings. The company's focus on cutting-edge solutions in AI and advanced wireless communication positions it favorably for future growth, potentially leading to upward price momentum.

  • 2/27/2026NEGATIVE
    Clearline Capital Trims Semtech as Post-Sierra Model Drives Earnings

    Clearline Capital has trimmed its position in Semtech, signaling caution despite the stock's recent surge. Following the acquisition of Sierra Wireless, the semiconductor company now operates with a significantly altered business model, featuring an expanded connectivity segment but also a more leveraged balance sheet. Investors are questioning whether the current rebound represents a true turning point or merely a cyclical reset for the sector. Clearline's move suggests that the market is closely scrutinizing Semtech's ability to manage the integration and its new financial structure, raising concerns about the sustainability of future growth amidst increased leverage.

  • 2/26/2026NEGATIVE
    Is Semtech Stock a Buy or Sell After the COO Sold 10,000 Shares?

    Semtech's Chief Operating Officer recently sold 10,000 shares of the company, an analog semiconductor firm serving global data centers. This transaction, disclosed in SEC filings, is a significant event that investors typically monitor closely. Insider sales, especially of this magnitude, can be interpreted as a cautious signal, potentially suggesting that executives perceive the stock as overvalued or anticipate less robust growth prospects for the future. Analysts will closely follow SMTC's performance to assess whether this move indicates a broader trend or is an isolated event.