TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)
Fair ValueFundamental
65
Price
$70.74
Market Cap
$2.50B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company provides Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. Its OCS includes OCS LUNG for the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplantation; OCS Heart, a technology for preservation of DBD donor hearts deemed unsuitable due to limitations of cold storage and for ex vivo reanimation, functional monitoring, and beating-heart preservation of donation-after-circulatory-death hearts; and OCS Liver for the preservation of DBD and DCD of donor livers. The company also developed national OCS program, a turnkey solution for outsourced organ retrieval; and provides OCS organ management and logistics services, including aviation and ground transportation, and other coordination activity. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.
No editorial profile for this company yet
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$668M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$152M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$134M
Total Equity
$473M
Total Liabilities
$595M
Current Ratio
6.62
Interest Coverage
3.84
Debt/EBITDA
6.39
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$86.61
Current Price
$70.74
Margin of Safety
+18.3%
Fair Value Range
$56.30 - $116.93
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
18.33
ROE
40.2%
P/B Ratio
4.73
P/FCF
31.03
Gross Margin
58.7%
ROIC
4.7%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
4.7%
WACC
12.3%
ROIC − WACC
-7.6 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 24.27%
- Gross margin 58.7%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 12.2%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 33.0%
- Revenue growth 5Y 88.2%
- Earnings surprise, average 14.1%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 0.96
- Net margin trend 22.7% vs 13.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (8)
- ROIC 4.7%
- P/FCF 31.03
- P/B ratio 4.73
- CapEx intensity
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Fairly Valued)
- Share dilution 11.3%
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend payout –
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
Moderate: some gap between profits and cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Dr. Waleed H. Hassanein M.D. | Founder, President, CEO & Director | 57 |
| Mr. Anil Ranganath | Advisor | 43 |
| Mr. Matthew Forsyth | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
| Ms. Miriam C. Provost Ph.D. | Vice President of Global Regulatory Affairs | 64 |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
3
Compensation Risk
7
Shareholder Rights Risk
3
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-24
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-04
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-10
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much TMDX moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 77% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 46.1%
- Volatility 90d
- 52.1%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.12Correlation 0.25
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -58.8%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 5.67%
Earnings reactions
How TMDX moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 5, 2026 · In 12 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 0.29Revenue estimate: $178M
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 12.3% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | After the close | 0.48 | 0.44 | -8.9% | -10.4% | -5.3% | +10.7% |
| May 5, 2026 | After the close | 0.63 | 0.30 | -52.0% | -21.1% | -23.2% | -32.7% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | After the close | 0.40 | 0.53 | +32.9% | +1.6% | -4.3% | +7.4% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | After the close | 0.36 | 0.66 | +84.4% | -5.1% | +1.1% | -7.3% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +14.8% | +10.5% | +10.3% |
| May 8, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +23.0% | +19.6% | +30.7% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.1% | +5.8% | -9.5% |
| Oct 28, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -27.8% | -29.9% | -32.7% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +15.9% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +16.9% | +24.9% | +35.2% |
| Feb 26, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +16.4% | +14.1% | +11.9% |
| Nov 6, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +41.8% | +51.2% | +48.4% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on TMDX and what the price did next.
- 3/8/2026PositiveTransMedics Stock Is Up 104% Over the Last Year: Is It Too Late to Buy for 2026?
- +1 day
- +3.1%
- +3 days
- -1.1%
- 2/28/2026PositiveGot $5,000? TransMedics Could Be a High‑Tech Organ Transplant Moonshot
- +1 day
- +1.1%
- +3 days
- +1.8%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for TMDX.
- 3/8/2026POSITIVETransMedics Stock Is Up 104% Over the Last Year: Is It Too Late to Buy for 2026?
TransMedics Group Inc. has demonstrated remarkable growth, with its stock price surging 104% over the past year. The company is recognized for its innovative approach to revolutionizing the organ transplant industry. Despite this impressive performance, market sentiment remains divided, with some analysts labeling the stock as 'overvalued.' Investors are now contemplating whether the significant gains made thus far leave room for further appreciation by 2026, balancing the company's disruptive potential against current valuation concerns.
- 2/28/2026POSITIVEGot $5,000? TransMedics Could Be a High‑Tech Organ Transplant Moonshot
TransMedics Group, Inc., a mid-cap healthcare specialist, is drawing investor attention as a potential 'moonshot' in the high-tech organ transplant sector. The company, focused on advanced solutions for organ preservation and transport, is seen as a significant investment opportunity for those seeking growth in innovative medical fields. Analysts suggest that with an initial capital of around $5,000, investors might consider a deeper look into this company, given its prominent position in a market segment with high expansion potential and technological innovation. Its technology could revolutionize current practices, offering attractive long-term return prospects.