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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

Fair Value
HealthcareHealthcare PlansUnited States

Fundamental

72

Price

$418.09

Market Cap

$360.32B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

UnitedHealth Group runs two connected businesses: UnitedHealthcare sells health insurance to employers, individuals and government programmes, while Optum sells health services — care delivery clinics, a pharmacy benefit manager, and data and technology tools — to insurers, employers and UnitedHealthcare itself. It is the largest health insurer in the United States, covering close to 50 million people, and increasingly earns money from managing care and pharmacy spending rather than just from underwriting policies.

How it makes money

UnitedHealthcare earns premiums: it collects a fixed payment per enrolled member — from employers, individuals or Medicare/Medicaid programmes — and keeps the difference between premiums collected and medical claims paid. Optum earns service and product fees: Optum Rx is paid for processing and negotiating prescription drug purchases, Optum Health for delivering care, and Optum Insight for data and administrative services, billed to both outside clients and to UnitedHealthcare. In fiscal 2025 UnitedHealthcare generated $344.9 billion and Optum $270.6 billion in segment revenue, with a large share of Optum's total coming from services sold internally to UnitedHealthcare, which is why the two do not simply add up to consolidated revenue of $447.6 billion.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

Being the largest US health insurer gives UnitedHealthcare negotiating leverage with hospitals and doctors that smaller insurers lack, and owning Optum lets the company capture margin at several steps of the healthcare dollar instead of just underwriting. The advantage is real but not immune to regulation: government rules on Medicare Advantage payment rates and drug-pricing negotiation can compress it directly.

What drives demand

Defensive

People need medical care and insurance regardless of the economic cycle, which makes underlying demand defensive. What moves results year to year is less the economy and more government policy — Medicare Advantage funding rates, Medicaid eligibility rules and drug-pricing negotiation — plus how accurately the company prices the medical costs it commits to cover a year in advance.

Key risks

  • Government regulation of Medicare and Medicaid business — CMS regulates UnitedHealthcare's Medicare and Medicaid plans and parts of Optum, sets the payment rates the company is paid on, and can audit compliance and the health-status coding used to determine those payments at any time.
  • Failure to comply with changing regulation — The company states that if it fails to comply with, or respond quickly to changes in, applicable laws and regulations, its results of operations, financial position and cash flows could be materially and adversely affected.
  • Competition for enrollment — The commercial health insurance market remains highly competitive across small group, large group and individual segments; failing to maintain or grow enrollment could materially hurt results.
  • Cybersecurity and data systems — The 2024 cyberattack on the company's Change Healthcare unit disrupted claims processing industry-wide and cost the company more than $2 billion in provider accommodations, illustrating how dependent the business is on the security of its technology systems.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$450.13B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$14.12B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$16.07B

Total Equity

$100.09B

Total Liabilities

$207.88B

Current Ratio

0.78

Interest Coverage

5.57

Debt/EBITDA

3.14

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseFairly Valued

Fair Value

$386.14

Current Price

$418.09

Margin of Safety

-8.3%

Fair Value Range

$251.44 - $520.85

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$477.04
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$517.88
Earnings multiple (P/E):$265.72
Graham growth formula:$116.31
Earnings power value (EPV):$258.45
Justified P/B:$314.22
Dividend discount (Gordon):$226.05
P/FFO, funds from operations:$292.64
Mid-cycle earnings:$872.06
Revenue multiple:$1883.69
Last Earnings Surprise:+12.18%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

26.84

ROE

12.0%

P/B Ratio

3.59

P/FCF

15.89

Gross Margin

88.6%

ROIC

8.6%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

8.6%

WACC

7.4%

ROIC − WACC

+1.3 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 7.81%
  • Price CAGR 8.78%
  • ROIC 8.7%
  • Gross margin 88.6%
  • P/FCF 15.89
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • ROE 16.1%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 11.7%
  • Earnings surprise, average 12.3%
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.91
  • Share dilution -1.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (6)

  • P/B ratio 3.59
  • Operating margin 4.8%
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net margin trend 3.1% vs 5.0%

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend payout –
  • PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

1.91

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-1.9%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Stephen J. HemsleyCEO & Non-Independent Non-Executive Chairman72
Mr. Wayne Scott DeVeydtChief Financial Officer55
Mr. Christopher R. ZaettaExecutive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary53
Mr. Timothy John NoelChief Executive Officer of UnitedHealthcare Business53
Dr. Patrick Hugh Conway M.D., M.Sc.Chief Executive Officer of Optum50
Mr. Dennis StankiewiczChief Accounting Officer & Corporate Controller47
Mr. Sandeep DadlaniExecutive VP and Chief Digital & Technology Officer50
Mr. Zachary William SopcakSenior Vice President of Capital Markets Communications & Investor Relations-
Ms. Erin L. McSweeney J.D.Executive VP & Chief People Officer60
Dr. Richard J. Migliori M.D.Executive Vice President & Senior Advisor68

Audit Risk

10

Board Risk

9

Compensation Risk

9

Shareholder Rights Risk

1

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-03-02

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-10

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-13

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much UNH moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityLow

More volatile than 19% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
25.2%
Volatility 90d
24.5%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
0.33Correlation 0.12
Max drawdown (12m)
-29.6%
ATR (14d, % of price)
2.73%

Earnings reactions

How UNH moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Jan 12, 2027 · In 80 days · Before the open

EPS estimate: 2.26Revenue estimate: $112.3B

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.3% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
  • Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 1.

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Oct 13, 2026Before the open4.144.69+13.3% +5.0% -0.2% +6.9%
Jul 16, 2026During the session4.956.38+28.8% +7.4% +1.2% +3.1%
Apr 21, 2026During the session6.647.23+8.9% +9.1% +7.0% +9.6%
Jan 27, 2026During the session2.122.11-0.6% -16.4% -19.6% -18.8%
Oct 28, 2025During the session2.822.92+3.5% +4.0% +0.5% -8.8%
Jul 29, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-5.8% -7.5% -14.6%
Apr 17, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-17.6% -22.4% -27.5%
Jan 16, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-2.4% -6.0% -2.5%
Oct 15, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-8.8% -8.1% -5.6%
Jul 16, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a+3.6% +6.5% +8.4%
Apr 16, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a+7.0% +5.2% +10.2%
Jan 12, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-3.9% -3.4% -6.7%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on UNH and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for UNH.

  • 4d agoNEGATIVE
    UnitedHealthcare and Humana are ending Medicare Advantage plans for nearly 1 million people

    UnitedHealth Group and Humana are discontinuing Medicare Advantage plans, impacting approximately 1 million beneficiaries. This strategic move, according to industry experts, suggests a focus on shedding less profitable customer segments or migrating individuals to more streamlined, higher-margin offerings. For investors, this signals a potential recalibration of business strategy towards profitability within the Medicare Advantage segment, which could lead to short-term disruption but potentially improved long-term financial performance for these health insurers.

  • 11d agoPOSITIVE
    UnitedHealth Group batte le attese e alza le stime sugli utili per il 2026

    UnitedHealth Group has announced third-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations, prompting the healthcare giant to raise its earnings per share forecast for the full year 2026. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the upward revision in guidance signals strong operational performance and a positive outlook for the company. Investors will be watching for further details on revenue drivers and cost management, as this positive outlook could translate into increased shareholder value and potentially higher stock prices.

  • 11d agoPOSITIVE
    UnitedHealth Raises 2026 Forecast as Cost Pressures Ease

    UnitedHealth Group has elevated its full-year 2026 profit forecast, signaling robust performance and easing cost pressures. The healthcare giant reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share exceeding expectations, prompting an upward revision to its annual outlook, now projecting at least $20.50 per share. This positive development suggests improved operational efficiency and a favorable market environment for the company. Investors will be watching for continued margin expansion and strategic growth initiatives that could further bolster shareholder value.

  • 24d agoNEGATIVE
    UnitedHealth Must Face Shareholder Suit by CalPERS, Judge Rules

    A federal judge has ruled that UnitedHealth Group Inc. must face a lawsuit brought by a major shareholder, CalPERS. The suit alleges that investors were misled regarding financial transactions that artificially inflated earnings. While the judge dismissed some claims, the core allegations of deception remain. This development introduces legal uncertainty and potential financial repercussions for UnitedHealth, which could impact investor sentiment and the stock's valuation as the case proceeds.

  • 9/9/2026POSITIVE
    UnitedHealth vende WellMed a TPG: cosa significa per le azioni UNH

    UnitedHealth Group is divesting a partial stake in its Optum Health Florida primary care clinic network, including WellMed operations, to private equity firm TPG. This strategic move aims to unlock capital for growth while retaining an equity stake in the regional clinic network. UnitedHealth shares have shown strong performance, up approximately 50% from late March lows. The partial divestiture is viewed as a structurally positive development for UNH stock, suggesting a focus on optimizing its portfolio and generating strategic capital for future expansion.

  • 8/19/2026NEGATIVE
    The IRS is scrutinizing how UnitedHealth moved money through foreign subsidiaries—and whether it underpaid taxes

    The IRS is reportedly scrutinizing UnitedHealth Group's use of foreign subsidiaries, investigating potential underpayment of taxes over the past four years. While the exact financial implications remain undisclosed, the agency's inquiry suggests a risk of increased taxable income for the health giant. This development could lead to significant financial penalties and reputational damage, impacting investor sentiment and potentially affecting the company's future earnings and stock performance. Investors will be closely monitoring any further disclosures regarding the scale of the tax issue.

  • 7/16/2026POSITIVE
    UnitedHealth now has an improved outlook for the year. Its stock is rallying.

    UnitedHealth Group Inc. has received an improved outlook for the year, with its stock experiencing a rally. Management cited strategic "product design changes, improved medical management and better aligned pricing" as key drivers for this positive shift. These operational enhancements suggest a stronger ability to manage costs and optimize revenue streams within its health insurance and services segments. Investors will likely view this as a signal of sustained profitability and operational efficiency, potentially leading to upward revisions in earnings forecasts and increased confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects.