UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
Fair ValueFundamental
72
Price
$418.09
Market Cap
$360.32B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
UnitedHealth Group runs two connected businesses: UnitedHealthcare sells health insurance to employers, individuals and government programmes, while Optum sells health services — care delivery clinics, a pharmacy benefit manager, and data and technology tools — to insurers, employers and UnitedHealthcare itself. It is the largest health insurer in the United States, covering close to 50 million people, and increasingly earns money from managing care and pharmacy spending rather than just from underwriting policies.
How it makes money
UnitedHealthcare earns premiums: it collects a fixed payment per enrolled member — from employers, individuals or Medicare/Medicaid programmes — and keeps the difference between premiums collected and medical claims paid. Optum earns service and product fees: Optum Rx is paid for processing and negotiating prescription drug purchases, Optum Health for delivering care, and Optum Insight for data and administrative services, billed to both outside clients and to UnitedHealthcare. In fiscal 2025 UnitedHealthcare generated $344.9 billion and Optum $270.6 billion in segment revenue, with a large share of Optum's total coming from services sold internally to UnitedHealthcare, which is why the two do not simply add up to consolidated revenue of $447.6 billion.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowBeing the largest US health insurer gives UnitedHealthcare negotiating leverage with hospitals and doctors that smaller insurers lack, and owning Optum lets the company capture margin at several steps of the healthcare dollar instead of just underwriting. The advantage is real but not immune to regulation: government rules on Medicare Advantage payment rates and drug-pricing negotiation can compress it directly.
What drives demand
DefensivePeople need medical care and insurance regardless of the economic cycle, which makes underlying demand defensive. What moves results year to year is less the economy and more government policy — Medicare Advantage funding rates, Medicaid eligibility rules and drug-pricing negotiation — plus how accurately the company prices the medical costs it commits to cover a year in advance.
Key risks
- Government regulation of Medicare and Medicaid business — CMS regulates UnitedHealthcare's Medicare and Medicaid plans and parts of Optum, sets the payment rates the company is paid on, and can audit compliance and the health-status coding used to determine those payments at any time.
- Failure to comply with changing regulation — The company states that if it fails to comply with, or respond quickly to changes in, applicable laws and regulations, its results of operations, financial position and cash flows could be materially and adversely affected.
- Competition for enrollment — The commercial health insurance market remains highly competitive across small group, large group and individual segments; failing to maintain or grow enrollment could materially hurt results.
- Cybersecurity and data systems — The 2024 cyberattack on the company's Change Healthcare unit disrupted claims processing industry-wide and cost the company more than $2 billion in provider accommodations, illustrating how dependent the business is on the security of its technology systems.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$450.13B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$14.12B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$16.07B
Total Equity
$100.09B
Total Liabilities
$207.88B
Current Ratio
0.78
Interest Coverage
5.57
Debt/EBITDA
3.14
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$386.14
Current Price
$418.09
Margin of Safety
-8.3%
Fair Value Range
$251.44 - $520.85
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
26.84
ROE
12.0%
P/B Ratio
3.59
P/FCF
15.89
Gross Margin
88.6%
ROIC
8.6%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
8.6%
WACC
7.4%
ROIC − WACC
+1.3 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (19)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 7.81%
- Price CAGR 8.78%
- ROIC 8.7%
- Gross margin 88.6%
- P/FCF 15.89
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 16.1%
- Revenue growth 5Y 11.7%
- Earnings surprise, average 12.3%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.91
- Share dilution -1.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (6)
- P/B ratio 3.59
- Operating margin 4.8%
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Net margin trend 3.1% vs 5.0%
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend payout –
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Stephen J. Hemsley | CEO & Non-Independent Non-Executive Chairman | 72 |
| Mr. Wayne Scott DeVeydt | Chief Financial Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Christopher R. Zaetta | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 53 |
| Mr. Timothy John Noel | Chief Executive Officer of UnitedHealthcare Business | 53 |
| Dr. Patrick Hugh Conway M.D., M.Sc. | Chief Executive Officer of Optum | 50 |
| Mr. Dennis Stankiewicz | Chief Accounting Officer & Corporate Controller | 47 |
| Mr. Sandeep Dadlani | Executive VP and Chief Digital & Technology Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Zachary William Sopcak | Senior Vice President of Capital Markets Communications & Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Erin L. McSweeney J.D. | Executive VP & Chief People Officer | 60 |
| Dr. Richard J. Migliori M.D. | Executive Vice President & Senior Advisor | 68 |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
1
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-03-02
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-10
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-13
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much UNH moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 19% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 25.2%
- Volatility 90d
- 24.5%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.33Correlation 0.12
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -29.6%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.73%
Earnings reactions
How UNH moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Jan 12, 2027 · In 80 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 2.26Revenue estimate: $112.3B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.3% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 1.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Before the open | 4.14 | 4.69 | +13.3% | +5.0% | -0.2% | +6.9% |
| Jul 16, 2026 | During the session | 4.95 | 6.38 | +28.8% | +7.4% | +1.2% | +3.1% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | During the session | 6.64 | 7.23 | +8.9% | +9.1% | +7.0% | +9.6% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | During the session | 2.12 | 2.11 | -0.6% | -16.4% | -19.6% | -18.8% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | During the session | 2.82 | 2.92 | +3.5% | +4.0% | +0.5% | -8.8% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.8% | -7.5% | -14.6% |
| Apr 17, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -17.6% | -22.4% | -27.5% |
| Jan 16, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.4% | -6.0% | -2.5% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -8.8% | -8.1% | -5.6% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.6% | +6.5% | +8.4% |
| Apr 16, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.0% | +5.2% | +10.2% |
| Jan 12, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.9% | -3.4% | -6.7% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on UNH and what the price did next.
- 10/20/2026NegativeUnitedHealthcare and Humana are ending Medicare Advantage plans for nearly 1 million people
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/13/2026PositiveUnitedHealth Group batte le attese e alza le stime sugli utili per il 2026
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/13/2026PositiveUnitedHealth Raises 2026 Forecast as Cost Pressures Ease
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/30/2026NegativeUnitedHealth Must Face Shareholder Suit by CalPERS, Judge Rules
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/9/2026PositiveUnitedHealth vende WellMed a TPG: cosa significa per le azioni UNH
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/19/2026NegativeThe IRS is scrutinizing how UnitedHealth moved money through foreign subsidiaries—and whether it underpaid taxes
- +1 day
- -1.6%
- +3 days
- -0.7%
- 7/16/2026PositiveUnitedHealth now has an improved outlook for the year. Its stock is rallying.
- +1 day
- +1.7%
- +3 days
- +2.4%
- 6/5/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 6/4/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +4.8%
- +3 days
- +9.8%
- 6/3/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +4.8%
- +3 days
- +9.8%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for UNH.
- 4d agoNEGATIVEUnitedHealthcare and Humana are ending Medicare Advantage plans for nearly 1 million people
UnitedHealth Group and Humana are discontinuing Medicare Advantage plans, impacting approximately 1 million beneficiaries. This strategic move, according to industry experts, suggests a focus on shedding less profitable customer segments or migrating individuals to more streamlined, higher-margin offerings. For investors, this signals a potential recalibration of business strategy towards profitability within the Medicare Advantage segment, which could lead to short-term disruption but potentially improved long-term financial performance for these health insurers.
- 11d agoPOSITIVEUnitedHealth Group batte le attese e alza le stime sugli utili per il 2026
UnitedHealth Group has announced third-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations, prompting the healthcare giant to raise its earnings per share forecast for the full year 2026. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the upward revision in guidance signals strong operational performance and a positive outlook for the company. Investors will be watching for further details on revenue drivers and cost management, as this positive outlook could translate into increased shareholder value and potentially higher stock prices.
- 11d agoPOSITIVEUnitedHealth Raises 2026 Forecast as Cost Pressures Ease
UnitedHealth Group has elevated its full-year 2026 profit forecast, signaling robust performance and easing cost pressures. The healthcare giant reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share exceeding expectations, prompting an upward revision to its annual outlook, now projecting at least $20.50 per share. This positive development suggests improved operational efficiency and a favorable market environment for the company. Investors will be watching for continued margin expansion and strategic growth initiatives that could further bolster shareholder value.
- 24d agoNEGATIVEUnitedHealth Must Face Shareholder Suit by CalPERS, Judge Rules
A federal judge has ruled that UnitedHealth Group Inc. must face a lawsuit brought by a major shareholder, CalPERS. The suit alleges that investors were misled regarding financial transactions that artificially inflated earnings. While the judge dismissed some claims, the core allegations of deception remain. This development introduces legal uncertainty and potential financial repercussions for UnitedHealth, which could impact investor sentiment and the stock's valuation as the case proceeds.
- 9/9/2026POSITIVEUnitedHealth vende WellMed a TPG: cosa significa per le azioni UNH
UnitedHealth Group is divesting a partial stake in its Optum Health Florida primary care clinic network, including WellMed operations, to private equity firm TPG. This strategic move aims to unlock capital for growth while retaining an equity stake in the regional clinic network. UnitedHealth shares have shown strong performance, up approximately 50% from late March lows. The partial divestiture is viewed as a structurally positive development for UNH stock, suggesting a focus on optimizing its portfolio and generating strategic capital for future expansion.
- 8/19/2026NEGATIVEThe IRS is scrutinizing how UnitedHealth moved money through foreign subsidiaries—and whether it underpaid taxes
The IRS is reportedly scrutinizing UnitedHealth Group's use of foreign subsidiaries, investigating potential underpayment of taxes over the past four years. While the exact financial implications remain undisclosed, the agency's inquiry suggests a risk of increased taxable income for the health giant. This development could lead to significant financial penalties and reputational damage, impacting investor sentiment and potentially affecting the company's future earnings and stock performance. Investors will be closely monitoring any further disclosures regarding the scale of the tax issue.
- 7/16/2026POSITIVEUnitedHealth now has an improved outlook for the year. Its stock is rallying.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. has received an improved outlook for the year, with its stock experiencing a rally. Management cited strategic "product design changes, improved medical management and better aligned pricing" as key drivers for this positive shift. These operational enhancements suggest a stronger ability to manage costs and optimize revenue streams within its health insurance and services segments. Investors will likely view this as a signal of sustained profitability and operational efficiency, potentially leading to upward revisions in earnings forecasts and increased confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects.